1000 resultados para Modèles de grande dimension


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American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) is endemic in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. As reports of nearby hospitals suggest, the Parque Estadual do Turvo seems to serve as a source for the disease. During three months from November 1996 to February 1997 we collected, in this park, 2,228 sandflies (10 Lutzomyia species and 2 6species). We applied the polymerase chain reaction to 920 females which belong to the following species: Lutzomyia migonei, Lu. pessoai, Lu. fischeri, Lu. misionensis, Lu. lanei, Lu. neivai, Lu. shannoni, and Lu. monticola, in an attempt to verify natural infection by Leishmania (Viannia), the causative agent of ACL. Le. (Viannia) infections were demonstrated by DNA amplification from two Lu. pessoai and one Lu. misionensis female. Lu. pessoai have been found with leptomonas in the gut believed to be Le. (V.) braziliensis in other endemic areas of northeastern and southeastern Brazil. However, Lu. misionensis has never been found carrying a natural infection of Le. (Viannia).

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A review of the ticks (Acari, Ixodida) of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, southern Brazil, was completed as a step towards a definitive list (currently indicated as 12) of such species, their hosts and distribution. The ticks: Argas miniatus (poultry), Ixodes loricatus (opossums), Amblyomma aureolatum (dogs), A. calcaratum (anteaters), A. cooperi (capybaras), A. nodosum (anteaters), A. tigrinum (dogs) (Neotropical) and Rhipicephalus sanguineus (dogs) (introduced, cosmopolitan, Afrotropical) were confirmed as present, in addition to the predominant, Boophilus microplus (cattle) (introduced, pan-tropical, Oriental). Of the further 18 species thus far reported in the literature as present in the state, but unavailable for examination: only Ornithodoros brasiliensis (humans and their habitations) (Neotropical), Ixodes affinis (deer) (Nearctic/Neotropical) and I. auritulus (birds) (Nearctic/Neotropical/Afrotropical/ Australasian) are considered likely; 13 species would benefit from corroborative local data but the majority appear unlikely; reports of A. maculatum (Nearctic/Neotropical, but circum-Caribbean) are considered erroneous; the validity of A. fuscum is in doubt. The very recent, first known report of the tropical Anocentor nitens (horses)(Nearctic/Neotropical), but still apparent absence of the tropical A. cajennense (catholic) (Nearctic/Neotropical) and the sub-tropical/temperate Ixodes pararicinus (cattle) (Neotropical) in Rio Grande do Sul are important for considerations on their current biogeographical distribution and its dynamics in South America. The state has relatively long established, introduced ("exotic"), Old World tick species (B. microplus, R. sanguineus) that continue to represent significant pests and disease vectors to their traditional, introduced domestic animal hosts, cattle and urban dogs. There are also indigenous, New World ticks (A. miniatus, O. brasiliensis, A. aureolatum, A. nitens), as both long established and possibly newly locally introduced species in the state, that should be considered as potential and emergent pests and pathogen vectors to humans and their more recently acquired, introduced domestic animal hosts; rural poultry, dogs and horses.

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The presence of Triatoma rubrovaria in Brazil has only been confirmed in the States of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul (RS), where it is found naturally infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. In the wild environment it occurs in rocky habitats and has an eclectic diet, feeding from cockroaches, reptiles and mammals. Data from the Chagas Disease Control Program obtained by the Fundação Nacional de Saúde, between 1975 and 1997, indicate a growing domiciliary and peridomiciliary invasion of T. rubrovaria in RS, where it has become the most frequently Triatominae species captured in this state since the control of Triatoma infestans. In order to monitor this process, we analyzed collection data derived from 22 years of control campaigns against T. infestans. Collection data for triatomines from domestic habitats show an inverse relationship, with high numbers of T. infestans and low numbers of T. rubrovaria during 1976-1987, compared to the following ten years, 1986-1997, when the number of T. infestans dropped drastically and that of T. rubrovaria increased. There are no consistent indications of intradomiciliary colonization by T. rubrovaria, since only low numbers of nymphs have been captured in the intradomiciliary ecotopes. Nevertheless, this species appears to have preadaptive characteristics for anthropic ecotopes, and should be kept under constant epidemiological surveillance.

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Insects of the Simuliidae family have been the object of control in Rio Grande do Sul since the 70s. Their constant attacks became a social-economical problem as well as a problem of Public Health, with serious consequences to men and to the economy of the areas in which the insects develop. At first, the control was done with a chemical larvicide Themephos ABATE 500 E, but an imperfect measuring of outflow to determine the quantity of the product made Simulium spp. resistant to it. From 1983 on, following a study of a new method for the outflow measuring, we started to use a biological larvicide Bacillus thuringiensis serovar israelensis based. The biological control uses the new method in 36.4% of the state area, assisting about 3,500,000 inhabitants.

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The authors describe a new species of Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae) from the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The study was made with specimens captured in basaltic formations, at an average altitude of 750 m.o.s.l. The new species is included in the oliveirai complex together with other four species T. williami, T. matogrossensis, T. guazu and T. jurbergi). The new species was compared with the most similar one, T. oliveirai, from which the main differences are on the proportions of head, ante and postocular regions, the general color pattern and the male genitalia, specially on the median process of the pygophore, the support of phallosome, the vesica and the process of the endosome.

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Hemos analizado la supervivencia global (SG) y el tiempo libre de enfermedad (TLE) de los pacientes afectos de un linfoma difuso de célula grande en la era Rituximab. Describimos los resultados de los que recibieron un trasplante alogénico (aloTPH) en los últimos 13 años. La supervivencia global (SG) en los tratados con Rituximab fue de 59% y el tiempo libre de enfermedad (TLE) de 54%. La supervivencia por IPI fue de IPI bajo=82%, intermedio-bajo=54%, intermedio-alto=51%, alto=33%. En el trasplante autólogo la SG fue de 65% y con TLE 54%. La SG para los que recibieron un aloTPH fue de 49% a los 78 meses.

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This thesis focuses on theoretical asset pricing models and their empirical applications. I aim to investigate the following noteworthy problems: i) if the relationship between asset prices and investors' propensities to gamble and to fear disaster is time varying, ii) if the conflicting evidence for the firm and market level skewness can be explained by downside risk, Hi) if costly learning drives liquidity risk. Moreover, empirical tests support the above assumptions and provide novel findings in asset pricing, investment decisions, and firms' funding liquidity. The first chapter considers a partial equilibrium model where investors have heterogeneous propensities to gamble and fear disaster. Skewness preference represents the desire to gamble, while kurtosis aversion represents fear of extreme returns. Using US data from 1988 to 2012, my model demonstrates that in bad times, risk aversion is higher, more people fear disaster, and fewer people gamble, in contrast to good times. This leads to a new empirical finding: gambling preference has a greater impact on asset prices during market downturns than during booms. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay introduces a foramula based on conditional CAPM for decomposing the market skewness. We find that the major market upward and downward movements can be well preadicted by the asymmetric comovement of betas, which is characterized by an indicator called "Systematic Downside Risk" (SDR). We find that SDR can efafectively forecast future stock market movements and we obtain out-of-sample R-squares (compared with a strategy using historical mean) of more than 2.27% with monthly data. The second essay reconciles a well-known empirical fact: aggregating positively skewed firm returns leads to negatively skewed market return. We reconcile this fact through firms' greater response to negative maraket news than positive market news. We also propose several market return predictors, such as downside idiosyncratic skewness. The third chapter studies the funding liquidity risk based on a general equialibrium model which features two agents: one entrepreneur and one external investor. Only the investor needs to acquire information to estimate the unobservable fundamentals driving the economic outputs. The novelty is that information acquisition is more costly in bad times than in good times, i.e. counter-cyclical information cost, as supported by previous empirical evidence. Later we show that liquidity risks are principally driven by costly learning. Résumé Cette thèse présente des modèles théoriques dévaluation des actifs et leurs applications empiriques. Mon objectif est d'étudier les problèmes suivants: la relation entre l'évaluation des actifs et les tendances des investisseurs à parier et à crainadre le désastre varie selon le temps ; les indications contraires pour l'entreprise et l'asymétrie des niveaux de marché peuvent être expliquées par les risques de perte en cas de baisse; l'apprentissage coûteux augmente le risque de liquidité. En outre, des tests empiriques confirment les suppositions ci-dessus et fournissent de nouvelles découvertes en ce qui concerne l'évaluation des actifs, les décisions relatives aux investissements et la liquidité de financement des entreprises. Le premier chapitre examine un modèle d'équilibre où les investisseurs ont des tendances hétérogènes à parier et à craindre le désastre. La préférence asymétrique représente le désir de parier, alors que le kurtosis d'aversion représente la crainte du désastre. En utilisant les données des Etats-Unis de 1988 à 2012, mon modèle démontre que dans les mauvaises périodes, l'aversion du risque est plus grande, plus de gens craignent le désastre et moins de gens parient, conatrairement aux bonnes périodes. Ceci mène à une nouvelle découverte empirique: la préférence relative au pari a un plus grand impact sur les évaluations des actifs durant les ralentissements de marché que durant les booms économiques. Exploitant uniquement cette relation générera un revenu excédentaire annuel de 7,74% qui n'est pas expliqué par les modèles factoriels populaires. Le second chapitre comprend deux essais. Le premier essai introduit une foramule base sur le CAPM conditionnel pour décomposer l'asymétrie du marché. Nous avons découvert que les mouvements de hausses et de baisses majeures du marché peuvent être prédits par les mouvements communs des bêtas. Un inadicateur appelé Systematic Downside Risk, SDR (risque de ralentissement systématique) est créé pour caractériser cette asymétrie dans les mouvements communs des bêtas. Nous avons découvert que le risque de ralentissement systématique peut prévoir les prochains mouvements des marchés boursiers de manière efficace, et nous obtenons des carrés R hors échantillon (comparés avec une stratégie utilisant des moyens historiques) de plus de 2,272% avec des données mensuelles. Un investisseur qui évalue le marché en utilisant le risque de ralentissement systématique aurait obtenu une forte hausse du ratio de 0,206. Le second essai fait cadrer un fait empirique bien connu dans l'asymétrie des niveaux de march et d'entreprise, le total des revenus des entreprises positiveament asymétriques conduit à un revenu de marché négativement asymétrique. Nous décomposons l'asymétrie des revenus du marché au niveau de l'entreprise et faisons cadrer ce fait par une plus grande réaction des entreprises aux nouvelles négatives du marché qu'aux nouvelles positives du marché. Cette décomposition révélé plusieurs variables de revenus de marché efficaces tels que l'asymétrie caractéristique pondérée par la volatilité ainsi que l'asymétrie caractéristique de ralentissement. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle base théorique pour les problèmes de liquidité qui varient selon le temps au sein d'un environnement de marché incomplet. Nous proposons un modèle d'équilibre général avec deux agents: un entrepreneur et un investisseur externe. Seul l'investisseur a besoin de connaitre le véritable état de l'entreprise, par conséquent, les informations de paiement coutent de l'argent. La nouveauté est que l'acquisition de l'information coute plus cher durant les mauvaises périodes que durant les bonnes périodes, comme cela a été confirmé par de précédentes expériences. Lorsque la récession comamence, l'apprentissage coûteux fait augmenter les primes de liquidité causant un problème d'évaporation de liquidité, comme cela a été aussi confirmé par de précédentes expériences.

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Forty-six species of Lutzomyia and one species of Brumptomyia were identified among 20,008 sand flies collected in central Amapá. L. squamiventris maripaensis, L. infraspinosa, L. umbratilis and L. ubiquitalis accounted for 66% of the specimens caught in light traps, and L. umbratilis was the commonest of the 16 species found on tree bases. Seven species of Lutzomyia including L. umbratilis were collected in a plantation of Caribbean pine. Sixty out of 511 female sand flies dissected were positive for flagellates. Among the sand flies from which Leishmania was isolated, promastigotes were observed in the salivary glands and foregut of 13 out of 21 females scored as having very heavy infections in the remainder of the gut, reinforcing the idea that salivary gland invasion may be part of the normal life cycle of Leishmania in nature. Salivary gland infections were detected in specimens of L. umbratilis, L. whitmani and L. spathotrichia. Parasites isolated from L. umbratilis, L. whitmani and also from one specimen of L. dendrophyla containing the remains of a bloodmeal, were compatible with Le. guyanensis by morphology and behaviour in hamsters.