Biological Activity of Rhodium Metalloinsertors and the Design of Bifunctional Conjugates

The Barton laboratory has established that octahedral rhodium complexes bearing the sterically expansive 5,6-chrysene diimine ligand can target thermodynamically destabilized sites, such as base pair mismatches, in DNA with high affinity and selectivity. These complexes approach DNA from the minor groove, ejecting the mismatched base pairs from the duplex in a binding mode termed metalloinsertion. In recent years, we have shown that these metalloinsertor complexes also exhibit cytotoxicity preferentially in cancer cells that are deficient in the mismatch repair (MMR) machinery.

Here, we establish that a sensitive structure-activity relationship exists for rhodium metalloinsertors. We studied the relationship between the chemical structures of metalloinsertors and their effect on biological activity for ten complexes with similar DNA binding affinities, but wide variation in their lipophilicity. Drastic differences were observed in the selectivities of the complexes for MMR-deficient cells. Compounds with hydrophilic ligands were highly selective, exhibiting preferential cytotoxicity in MMR-deficient cells at low concentrations and short incubation periods, whereas complexes with lipophilic ligands displayed poor cell-selectivity. It was discovered that all of the complexes localized to the nucleus in concentrations sufficient for mismatch binding; however, highly lipophilic complexes also exhibited high mitochondrial uptake. Significantly, these results support the notion that mitochondrial DNA is not the desired target for our metalloinsertor complexes; instead, selectivity stems from targeting mismatches in genomic DNA.

We have also explored the potential for metalloinsertors to be developed into more complex structures with multiple functionalities that could either enhance their overall potency or impart mismatch selectivity onto other therapeutic cargo. We have constructed a family of bifunctional metalloinsertor conjugates incorporating cis-platinum, each unique in its chemical structure, DNA binding interactions, and biological activity. The study of these complexes in MMR-deficient cells has established that the cell-selective biological activity of rhodium metalloinsertors proceeds through a critical cellular pathway leading to necrosis.

We further explored the underlying mechanisms surrounding the biological response to mismatch recognition by metalloinsertors in the genome. Immunofluorescence assays of MMR-deficient and MMR-proficient cells revealed that a critical biomarker for DNA damage, phosphorylation of histone H2AX (γH2AX) rapidly accumulates in response to metalloinsertor treatment, signifying the induction of double strand breaks in the genome. Significantly, we have discovered that our metalloinsertor complexes selectively inhibit transcription in MMR-deficient cells, which may be a crucial checkpoint in the eventual breakdown of the cell via necrosis. Additionally, preliminary in vivo studies have revealed the capability of these compounds to traverse the complex environments of multicellular organisms and accumulate in MMR-deficient tumors. Our ever-increasing understanding of metalloinsertors, as well as the development of new generations of complexes both monofunctional and bifunctional, enables their continued progress into the clinic as promising new chemotherapeutic agents.

Razões, sentimentos e projetos profissionais: experiência dos vestibulandosas (Vitória, ES, 2009 - 2010)

Dar nitidez aos sentimentos e razões que emergem das experiências dos vestibulandos de Vitória-ES, entre 2009-2010, e que os movem em direção a seus projetos profissionais é objetivo deste trabalho. A noção de projeto aqui utilizada (VELHO, 1999) afasta-se da clássica compreensão liberal do ser humano, autônomo, livre e único, responsável por seus sucessos e fracassos, subjacente a estudos sobre escolha profissional. A ideia proposta é que campo de experiências dos sujeitos marca seus projetos profissionais, mas que suas condutas deliberadas, não necessariamente racionais, expõem certas expectativas de vida, quaisquer que sejam as posições sociais desses sujeitos. Para o exame dessas expectativas, esses sujeitos foram vistos em suas relações sociais - nas interseções de classes, gênero, de cor da pele, de gerações, etc. Reconheceu-se, ainda, que razões e sentimentos (WILLIAMS, 1969), também forjam projetos profissionais de sujeitos sob diversas condições sociais e apesar delas. Por considerar que esses projetos portam manifestações humanas, nem sempre perceptíveis e tantas vezes encobertas, a metáfora do rizoma (DELEUZE; GUATTARI, 2004), foi de utilidade metodológica. Alguns indícios (GINZBURG, 2007), sugeriram caminhos de pesquisa e alguns dos significados aos sujeitos para que esses projetos pudessem ser detectados. A perspectiva da longa duração histórica e dos tempos múltiplos presidiu o exame de trajetórias selecionadas de um conjunto de sujeitos pesquisados entre os anos 2009-2010, o que favoreceu a percepção de continuidades históricas, mas também a ocorrência de mudanças de certas tendências sociais. Dois cursos de pré-vestibular, um público e um privado, em Vitória, ES, nessa conjuntura, mostraram um pouco da pluralidade de expectativas de diferentes jovens - pobres, de classes média e alta, homens e mulheres, brancos, negros e pardos, mais novos e mais velhos em relação ao ensino superior presente em seus projetos profissionais. Razões e sentimentos que os movem e que se movem, nem sempre examinados em estudos sobre a matéria, foram expostos. Contribuições de Elias (1990), de R. Williams (1969), de Bourdieu (2003, 2009), de E. P. Thompson (2002), de Löwy (1990), entre outros, apoiaram evidências de que as relações indivíduo e sociedade, sempre plurais e complexas, expressam apenas partes de seus sentidos civilizadores. Para reduzir incertezas, recorreu-se a dados macrossociais e microssociais (REVEL, 1998). Entrevistas com tais jovens e coordenadores de seus cursos, observações advindas de dinâmica de grupo e, também, exame de publicações oficiais, de periódicos de divulgação de matéria sobre vestibular, entre 2009-2010, situaram um trato de escalas analíticas de difícil exercício. Para além das relações de classes, gênero, cor da pele, geração etc., pode-se concluir que esses sujeitos, por razões e sentimentos variados, com seus projetos profissionais, tanto se deslocam de suas posições sociais de origem como as mantêm, mas todos, em suas novas experiências e de diferentes modos, também se preparam para atuar sobre os sentidos civilizadores de seu tempo.

I. Studies on bacteriophage DNA's and minicircular DNA's in M. lysodeikticus and E. coli 15. II. Flow dichroism of DNA solutions

Part I

Chapter 1.....A physicochemical study of the DNA molecules from the three bacteriophages, N1, N5, and N6, which infect the bacterium, M. lysodeikticus, has been made. The molecular weights, as measured by both electron microscopy and sedimentation velocity, are 23 x 10⁶ for N5 DNA and 31 x 10⁶ for N1 and N6 DNA's. All three DNA's are capable of thermally reversible cyclization. N1 and N6 DNA's have identical or very similar base sequences as judged by membrane filter hybridization and by electron microscope heteroduplex studies. They have identical or similar cohesive ends. These results are in accord with the close biological relation between N1 and N6 phages. N5 DNA is not closely related to N1 or N6 DNA. The denaturation T_m of all three DNA's is the same and corresponds to a (GC) content of 70%. However, the buoyant densities in CsCl of Nl and N6 DNA's are lower than expected, corresponding to predicted GC contents of 64 and 67%. The buoyant densities in Cs₂SO₄ are also somewhat anomalous. The buoyant density anomalies are probably due to the presence of odd bases. However, direct base composition analysis of N1 DNA by anion exchange chromatography confirms a GC content of 70%, and, in the elution system used, no peaks due to odd bases are present.

Chapter 2.....A covalently closed circular DNA form has been observed as an intracellular form during both productive and abortive infection processes in M. lysodeikticus. This species has been isolated by the method of CsC1-ethidium bromide centrifugation and examined with an electron microscope.

Chapter 3.....A minute circular DNA has been discovered as a homogeneous population in M. lysodeikticus. Its length and molecular weight as determined by electron microscopy are 0.445 μ and 0.88 x 10⁶ daltons respectively. There is about one minicircle per bacterium.

Chapter 4.....Several strains of E. coli 15 harbor a prophage. Viral growth can be induced by exposing the host to mitomycin C or to uv irradiation. The coliphage 15 particles from E. coli 15 and E, coli 15 T^- appear as normal phage with head and tail structure; the particles from E. coli 15 TAU are tailless. The complete particles exert a colicinogenic activity on E.coli 15 and 15 T^-, the tailless particles do not. No host for a productive viral infection has been found and the phage may be defective. The properties of the DNA of the virus have been studied, mainly by electron microscopy. After induction but before lysis, a closed circular DNA with a contour length of about 11.9 μ is found in the bacterium; the mature phage DNA is a linear duplex and 7.5% longer than the intracellular circular form. This suggests the hypothesis that the mature phage DNA is terminally repetitious and circularly permuted. The hypothesis was confirmed by observing that denaturation and renaturation of the mature phage DNA produce circular duplexes with two single-stranded branches corresponding to the terminal repetition. The contour length of the mature phage DNA was measured relative to φX RFII DNA and λ DNA; the calculated molecular weight is 27 x 10⁶. The length of the single-stranded terminal repetition was compared to the length of φX 174 DNA under conditions where single-stranded DNA is seen in an extended form in electron micrographs. The length of the terminal repetition is found to be 7.4% of the length of the nonrepetitious part of the coliphage 15 DNA. The number of base pairs in the terminal repetition is variable in different molecules, with a fractional standard deviation of 0.18 of the average number in the terminal repetition. A new phenomenon termed "branch migration" has been discovered in renatured circular molecules; it results in forked branches, with two emerging single strands, at the position of the terminal repetition. The distribution of branch separations between the two terminal repetitions in the population of renatured circular molecules was studied. The observed distribution suggests that there is an excluded volume effect in the renaturation of a population of circularly permuted molecules such that strands with close beginning points preferentially renature with each other. This selective renaturation and the phenomenon of branch migration both affect the distribution of branch separations; the observed distribution does not contradict the hypothesis of a random distribution of beginning points around the chromosome.

Chapter 5....Some physicochemical studies on the minicircular DNA species in E. coli 15 (0.670 μ, 1.47 x 10⁶ daltons) have been made. Electron microscopic observations showed multimeric forms of the minicircle which amount to 5% of total DNA species and also showed presumably replicating forms of the minicircle. A renaturation kinetic study showed that the minicircle is a unique DNA species in its size and base sequence. A study on the minicircle replication has been made under condition in which host DNA synthesis is synchronized. Despite experimental uncertainties involved, it seems that the minicircle replication is random and the number of the minicircles increases continuously throughout a generation of the host, regardless of host DNA synchronization.

Part II

The flow dichroism of dilute DNA solutions (A₂₆₀≈0.1) has been studied in a Couette-type apparatus with the outer cylinder rotating and with the light path parallel to the cylinder axis. Shear gradients in the range of 5-160 sec.^-1 were studied. The DNA samples were whole, "half," and "quarter" molecules of T4 bacteriophage DNA, and linear and circular λb₂b₅c DNA. For the linear molecules, the fractional flow dichroism is a linear function of molecular weight. The dichroism for linear A DNA is about 1.8 that of the circular molecule. For a given DNA, the dichroism is an approximately linear function of shear gradient, but with a slight upward curvature at low values of G, and some trend toward saturation at larger values of G. The fractional dichroism increases as the supporting electrolyte concentration decreases.

The astrophysics of strongly interacting systems

This thesis presents investigations in four areas of theoretical astrophysics: the production of sterile neutrino dark matter in the early Universe, the evolution of small-scale baryon perturbations during the epoch of cosmological recombination, the effect of primordial magnetic fields on the redshifted 21-cm emission from the pre-reionization era, and the nonlinear stability of tidally deformed neutron stars.

In the first part of the thesis, we study the asymmetry-driven resonant production of 7 keV-scale sterile neutrino dark matter in the primordial Universe at temperatures T >~ 100 MeV. We report final DM phase space densities that are robust to uncertainties in the nature of the quark-hadron transition. We give transfer functions for cosmological density fluctuations that are useful for N-body simulations. We also provide a public code for the production calculation.

In the second part of the thesis, we study the instability of small-scale baryon pressure sound waves during cosmological recombination. We show that for relevant wavenumbers, inhomogenous recombination is driven by the transport of ionizing continuum and Lyman-alpha photons. We find a maximum growth factor less than ≈ 1.2 in 10⁷ random realizations of initial conditions. The low growth factors are due to the relatively short duration of the recombination epoch.

In the third part of the thesis, we propose a method of measuring weak magnetic fields, of order 10^-19 G (or 10^-21 G if scaled to the present day), with large coherence lengths in the inter galactic medium prior to and during the epoch of cosmic reionization. The method utilizes the Larmor precession of spin-polarized neutral hydrogen in the triplet state of the hyperfine transition. We perform detailed calculations of the microphysics behind this effect, and take into account all the processes that affect the hyperfine transition, including radiative decays, collisions, and optical pumping by Lyman-alpha photons.

In the final part of the thesis, we study the non-linear effects of tidal deformations of neutron stars (NS) in a compact binary. We compute the largest three- and four-mode couplings among the tidal mode and high-order p- and g-modes of similar radial wavenumber. We demonstrate the near-exact cancellation of their effects, and resolve the question of the stability of the tidally deformed NS to leading order. This result is significant for the extraction of binary parameters from gravitational wave observations.

Envisioning 2050: climate change, aquaculture and fisheries in West Africa. Dakar, Senegal 14-16 April 2010

This report presents the activities and results of the workshop Envisioning 2050: Climate Change, Aquaculture and Fisheries in West Africa. The objectives of the workshop were to discuss critical issues and uncertainties faced by the fisheries and aquaculture sector in Ghana, Senegal and Mauritania, build sectoral scenarios for 2050 and discuss the implication of these scenarios in the context of climate change for the countries and the region.

Part I: Latent heat of vaporization of n-decane. Part II: Heat and mass transfer from a cylinder placed in a turbulent air stream - Sherwood and Frössling numbers as a function of free stream turbulence level and Reynolds number

Part I

The latent heat of vaporization of n-decane is measured calorimetrically at temperatures between 160° and 340°F. The internal energy change upon vaporization, and the specific volume of the vapor at its dew point are calculated from these data and are included in this work. The measurements are in excellent agreement with available data at 77° and also at 345°F, and are presented in graphical and tabular form.

Part II

Simultaneous material and energy transport from a one-inch adiabatic porous cylinder is studied as a function of free stream Reynolds Number and turbulence level. Experimental data is presented for Reynolds Numbers between 1600 and 15,000 based on the cylinder diameter, and for apparent turbulence levels between 1.3 and 25.0 per cent. n-heptane and n-octane are the evaporating fluids used in this investigation.

Gross Sherwood Numbers are calculated from the data and are in substantial agreement with existing correlations of the results of other workers. The Sherwood Numbers, characterizing mass transfer rates, increase approximately as the 0.55 power of the Reynolds Number. At a free stream Reynolds Number of 3700 the Sherwood Number showed a 40% increase as the apparent turbulence level of the free stream was raised from 1.3 to 25 per cent.

Within the uncertainties involved in the diffusion coefficients used for n-heptane and n-octane, the Sherwood Numbers are comparable for both materials. A dimensionless Frössling Number is computed which characterizes either heat or mass transfer rates for cylinders on a comparable basis. The calculated Frössling Numbers based on mass transfer measurements are in substantial agreement with Frössling Numbers calculated from the data of other workers in heat transfer.

Total cross section measurements for ^3He(^3He, 2p)^4He at low energies

Precise measurements of the total reaction cross section for ³He(³He,2p)⁴He He have been made in the range of center-of-mass energies between 1100 keV and 80 keV. A differentially pumped gas target modified to operate with a limited quantity of the target gas was employed to minimize the uncertainties in the primary energy and energy straggle. Beam integration inside the target gas was carried out by a calorimetric device which measures the total energy spent in a heat sink rather than the total charge in a Faraday cup. Proton energy spectra have been obtained using a counter telescope consisting of a gas proportional counter and a surface barrier detector and angular distributions of these protons have been measured at seven bombarding energies. Cross section factors, S(E), have been calculated from the total cross sections and fitted to a linear function of energy over different ranges of energy. For E_cm < 500 keV

S(E_cm) = S₀ + S₁ E_cm

where S₀ = (5.0 ^+0.6_-0.4) MeV - barns and S₁ = (-1.8 ± 0.5) barns.

Using Earth Deformation Caused by Surface Mass Loading to Constrain the Elastic Structure of the Crust and Mantle

Surface mass loads come in many different varieties, including the oceans, atmosphere, rivers, lakes, glaciers, ice caps, and snow fields. The loads migrate over Earth's surface on time scales that range from less than a day to many thousand years. The weights of the shifting loads exert normal forces on Earth's surface. Since the Earth is not perfectly rigid, the applied pressure deforms the shape of the solid Earth in a manner controlled by the material properties of Earth's interior. One of the most prominent types of surface mass loading, ocean tidal loading (OTL), comes from the periodic rise and fall in sea-surface height due to the gravitational influence of celestial objects, such as the moon and sun. Depending on geographic location, the surface displacements induced by OTL typically range from millimeters to several centimeters in amplitude, which may be inferred from Global Navigation and Satellite System (GNSS) measurements with sub-millimeter precision. Spatiotemporal characteristics of observed OTL-induced surface displacements may therefore be exploited to probe Earth structure. In this thesis, I present descriptions of contemporary observational and modeling techniques used to explore Earth's deformation response to OTL and other varieties of surface mass loading. With the aim to extract information about Earth's density and elastic structure from observations of the response to OTL, I investigate the sensitivity of OTL-induced surface displacements to perturbations in the material structure. As a case study, I compute and compare the observed and predicted OTL-induced surface displacements for a network of GNSS receivers across South America. The residuals in three distinct and dominant tidal bands are sub-millimeter in amplitude, indicating that modern ocean-tide and elastic-Earth models well predict the observed displacement response in that region. Nevertheless, the sub-millimeter residuals exhibit regional spatial coherency that cannot be explained entirely by random observational uncertainties and that suggests deficiencies in the forward-model assumptions. In particular, the discrepancies may reveal sensitivities to deviations from spherically symmetric, non-rotating, elastic, and isotropic (SNREI) Earth structure due to the presence of the South American craton.

The structure of liquid argon as determined by x-ray diffraction

X-ray diffraction measurements and subsequent data analyses have been carried out on liquid argon at five states in the density range of 0.91 to 1.135 gm/cc and temperature range of 127 to 143°K. Duplicate measurements were made on all states. These data yielded radial distribution and direct correlation functions which were then used to compute the pair potential using the Percus-Yevick equation. The potential minima are in the range of -105 to -120°K and appear to substantiate current theoretical estimates of the effective pair potential in the presence of a weak three-body force.

The data analysis procedure used was new and does not distinguish between the coherent and incoherent absorption factors for the cell scattering which were essentially equal. With this simplification, the argon scattering estimate was compared to the gas scattering estimate on the laboratory frame of reference and the two estimates coincided, indicating the data normalized. The argon scattering on the laboratory frame of reference was examined for the existence of the peaks in the structure factor and the existence of an observable third peak was considered doubtful.

Numerical studies of the effect of truncation, normalization, the subsidiary peak phenomenon in the radial distribution function, uncertainties in the low angle data relative to errors in the direct correlation function and the distortion phenomenon are presented.

The distortion phenomenon for this experiment explains why the Mikolaj-Pings argon data yielded pair potential well depths from the Percus-Yevick equation that were too shallow and an apparent slope with respect to density that was too steep compared to theoretical estimates.

The data presented for each measurement are: empty cell and cell plus argon intensity, absorption factors, argon intensity, smoothed argon intensity, smoothed argon intensity corrected for distortion, structure factor, radial distribution function, direct correlation function and the pair potential from the Percus-Yevick equation.

Structural Design under Seismic Risk Using Multiple Performance Objectives

Structural design is a decision-making process in which a wide spectrum of requirements, expectations, and concerns needs to be properly addressed. Engineering design criteria are considered together with societal and client preferences, and most of these design objectives are affected by the uncertainties surrounding a design. Therefore, realistic design frameworks must be able to handle multiple performance objectives and incorporate uncertainties from numerous sources into the process.

In this study, a multi-criteria based design framework for structural design under seismic risk is explored. The emphasis is on reliability-based performance objectives and their interaction with economic objectives. The framework has analysis, evaluation, and revision stages. In the probabilistic response analysis, seismic loading uncertainties as well as modeling uncertainties are incorporated. For evaluation, two approaches are suggested: one based on preference aggregation and the other based on socio-economics. Both implementations of the general framework are illustrated with simple but informative design examples to explore the basic features of the framework.

The first approach uses concepts similar to those found in multi-criteria decision theory, and directly combines reliability-based objectives with others. This approach is implemented in a single-stage design procedure. In the socio-economics based approach, a two-stage design procedure is recommended in which societal preferences are treated through reliability-based engineering performance measures, but emphasis is also given to economic objectives because these are especially important to the structural designer's client. A rational net asset value formulation including losses from uncertain future earthquakes is used to assess the economic performance of a design. A recently developed assembly-based vulnerability analysis is incorporated into the loss estimation.

The presented performance-based design framework allows investigation of various design issues and their impact on a structural design. It is a flexible one that readily allows incorporation of new methods and concepts in seismic hazard specification, structural analysis, and loss estimation.

A Real-Time Sliding Mode Control for a Wind Energy System Based on a Doubly Fed Induction Generator

In this paper, a real time sliding mode control scheme for a variable speed wind turbine that incorporates a doubly feed induction generator is described. In this design, the so-called vector control theory is applied, in order to simplify the system electrical equations. The proposed control scheme involves a low computational cost and therefore can be implemented in real-time applications using a low cost Digital Signal Processor (DSP). The stability analysis of the proposed sliding mode controller under disturbances and parameter uncertainties is provided using the Lyapunov stability theory. A new experimental platform has been designed and constructed in order to analyze the real-time performance of the proposed controller in a real system. Finally, the experimental validation carried out in the experimental platform shows; on the one hand that the proposed controller provides high-performance dynamic characteristics, and on the other hand that this scheme is robust with respect to the uncertainties that usually appear in the real systems.

A-SCALA: an age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis for assessing tuna stocks in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

English: We describe an age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis (A-SCALA) based on the MULTIFAN-CL model of Fournier et al. (1998). The analysis is applied independently to both the yellowfin and the bigeye tuna populations of the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO). We model the populations from 1975 to 1999, based on quarterly time steps. Only a single stock for each species is assumed for each analysis, but multiple fisheries that are spatially separate are modeled to allow for spatial differences in catchability and selectivity. The analysis allows for error in the effort-fishing mortality relationship, temporal trends in catchability, temporal variation in recruitment, relationships between the environment and recruitment and between the environment and catchability, and differences in selectivity and catchability among fisheries. The model is fit to total catch data and proportional catch-at-length data conditioned on effort. The A-SCALA method is a statistical approach, and therefore recognizes that the data collected from the fishery do not perfectly represent the population. Also, there is uncertainty in our knowledge about the dynamics of the system and uncertainty about how the observed data relate to the real population. The use of likelihood functions allow us to model the uncertainty in the data collected from the population, and the inclusion of estimable process error allows us to model the uncertainties in the dynamics of the system. The statistical approach allows for the calculation of confidence intervals and the testing of hypotheses. We use a Bayesian version of the maximum likelihood framework that includes distributional constraints on temporal variation in recruitment, the effort-fishing mortality relationship, and catchability. Curvature penalties for selectivity parameters and penalties on extreme fishing mortality rates are also included in the objective function. The mode of the joint posterior distribution is used as an estimate of the model parameters. Confidence intervals are calculated using the normal approximation method. It should be noted that the estimation method includes constraints and priors and therefore the confidence intervals are different from traditionally calculated confidence intervals. Management reference points are calculated, and forward projections are carried out to provide advice for making management decisions for the yellowfin and bigeye populations. Spanish: Describimos un análisis estadístico de captura a talla estructurado por edad, A-SCALA (del inglés age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis), basado en el modelo MULTIFAN- CL de Fournier et al. (1998). Se aplica el análisis independientemente a las poblaciones de atunes aleta amarilla y patudo del Océano Pacífico oriental (OPO). Modelamos las poblaciones de 1975 a 1999, en pasos trimestrales. Se supone solamente una sola población para cada especie para cada análisis, pero se modelan pesquerías múltiples espacialmente separadas para tomar en cuenta diferencias espaciales en la capturabilidad y selectividad. El análisis toma en cuenta error en la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, tendencias temporales en la capturabilidad, variación temporal en el reclutamiento, relaciones entre el medio ambiente y el reclutamiento y entre el medio ambiente y la capturabilidad, y diferencias en selectividad y capturabilidad entre pesquerías. Se ajusta el modelo a datos de captura total y a datos de captura a talla proporcional condicionados sobre esfuerzo. El método A-SCALA es un enfoque estadístico, y reconoce por lo tanto que los datos obtenidos de la pesca no representan la población perfectamente. Además, hay incertidumbre en nuestros conocimientos de la dinámica del sistema e incertidumbre sobre la relación entre los datos observados y la población real. El uso de funciones de verosimilitud nos permite modelar la incertidumbre en los datos obtenidos de la población, y la inclusión de un error de proceso estimable nos permite modelar las incertidumbres en la dinámica del sistema. El enfoque estadístico permite calcular intervalos de confianza y comprobar hipótesis. Usamos una versión bayesiana del marco de verosimilitud máxima que incluye constreñimientos distribucionales sobre la variación temporal en el reclutamiento, la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, y la capturabilidad. Se incluyen también en la función objetivo penalidades por curvatura para los parámetros de selectividad y penalidades por tasas extremas de mortalidad por pesca. Se usa la moda de la distribución posterior conjunta como estimación de los parámetros del modelo. Se calculan los intervalos de confianza usando el método de aproximación normal. Cabe destacar que el método de estimación incluye constreñimientos y distribuciones previas y por lo tanto los intervalos de confianza son diferentes de los intervalos de confianza calculados de forma tradicional. Se calculan puntos de referencia para el ordenamiento, y se realizan proyecciones a futuro para asesorar la toma de decisiones para el ordenamiento de las poblaciones de aleta amarilla y patudo.

Implementação de um algoritmo numérico para solução da equação de Christoffel generalizada em acustoelasticidade.

Extensos estudos realizados nas últimas décadas sobre a propagação de ondas ultrassônicas em sólidos levaram ao desenvolvimento de técnicas não destrutivas para a avaliação da segurança e integridade de estruturas e componentes industriais. O interesse na aplicação de técnicas ultrassônicas para medição de tensões aplicadas e residuais decorre da mudança mensurável da velocidade das ondas ultrassônicas na presença de um campo de tensões, fenômeno conhecido como efeito acustoelástico. Uma teoria de acustoelasticidade fornece um meio atrativo e não destrutivo de medir a tensão média ao longo do caminho percorrido pela onda. O estudo da propagação das ondas ultrassônicas em meios homogêneos anisotrópicos sob tensão conduz a um problema não linear de autovalores dado pela equação de Christoffel generalizada. A característica não linear deste problema decorre da interdependência entre as constantes elásticas efetivas do material e as tensões atuantes. A medição experimental de tensões por técnicas ultrassônicas é um problema inverso da acustoelasticidade. Esta dissertação apresenta a implementação de um algoritmo numérico, baseado no método proposto por Degtyar e Rokhlin, para solução do problema inverso da acustoelasticidade em sólidos ortotrópicos sujeitos a um estado plano de tensões. A solução da equação de Christoffel generalizada apresenta dificuldades de natureza numérica e prática. A estabilidade e a precisão do algoritmo desenvolvido, bem como a influência das incertezas na medição experimental das velocidades das ondas ultrassônicas, foram então investigadas. Dados sintéticos para as velocidades das ondas ultrassônicas de incidência oblíqua em uma placa sujeita a um estado plano de tensões foram gerados pela solução direta da equação de Christoffel generalizada para ilustrar a aplicação do algoritmo desenvolvido. O objetivo maior desta dissertação é a disponibilização de uma nova ferramenta de cálculo para suporte às atividades experimentais de medição de tensões por ultrassom no país.

Custo efetividade do uso do Peguinterferon alfa 2a combinado com Ribavirina no tratamento de respondedores virológicos lentos coinfectados com VHC/HIV

No mundo, as hepatites decorrentes de infecções virais têm sido uma das grandes preocupações em saúde pública devido a seu caráter crônico, curso assintomático e pela sua capacidade de determinar a perda da função hepática. Com o uso em larga escala de medicamentos antirretrovirais, a doença hepática relacionada à infecção pelo vírus da hepatite C (VHC) contribuiu para uma mudança radical na história natural da infecção pelo vírus da imunodeficiência humana (HIV). Não se sabe ao certo o peso da coinfecção VHC/HIV no Brasil, mas evidências apontam que independentemente da região geográfica, esses indivíduos apresentam maiores dificuldades em eliminar o VHC após o tratamento farmacológico, quando comparados a monoinfectados. No âmbito do SUS, o tratamento antiviral padrão para portadores do genótipo 1 do VHC e do HIV é a administração de peguinterferon associado à Ribavirina. Quanto ao período de tratamento e aos indivíduos que devem ser incluídos, os dois protocolos terapêuticos mais recentes possuem divergências. A diretriz mais atual preconiza o tratamento de indivíduos respondedores precoces somados a respondedores virológicos lentos, enquanto a diretriz imediatamente anterior exclui na 12 semana indivíduos que não respondem completamente. Com base nessa divergência, esse estudo objetivou avaliar o custo-efetividade do tratamento contra o VHC em indivíduos portadores do genótipo 1, coinfectados com o HIV, virgens de tratamento antiviral, não cirróticos e imunologicamente estabilizados, submetidos às regras de tratamento antiviral estabelecidos pelas duas mais recentes diretrizes terapêuticas direcionadas ao atendimento pelo SUS. Para tal, foi elaborado um modelo matemático de decisão, baseado em cadeias de Markov, que simulou a progressão da doença hepática mediante o tratamento e não tratamento. Foi acompanhada uma coorte hipotética de mil indivíduos homens, maiores de 40 anos. Adotou-se a perspectiva do Sistema Único de Saúde, horizonte temporal de 30 anos e taxa de desconto de 5% para os custos e consequências clínicas. A extensão do tratamento para respondedores lentos proporcionou incremento de 0,28 anos de vida ajustados por qualidade (QALY), de 7% de sobrevida e aumento de 60% no número de indivíduos que eliminaram o VHC. Além dos esperados benefícios em eficácia, a inclusão de respondedores virológicos lentos mostrou-se uma estratégia custo-efetiva ao alcançar um incremental de custo efetividade de R$ 44.171/QALY, valor abaixo do limiar de aceitabilidade proposto pela Organização Mundial da Saúde OMS - (R$ 63.756,00/QALY). A análise de sensibilidade demonstrou que as possíveis incertezas contidas no modelo são incapazes de alterar o resultado final, evidenciando, assim, a robustez da análise. A inclusão de indivíduos coinfectados VHC/HIV respondedores virológicos lentos no protocolo de tratamento apresenta-se, do ponto de vista fármaco-econômico, como uma estratégia com relação de custoefetividade favorável para o Sistema Único de Saúde. Sua adoção é perfeitamente compatível com a perspectiva do sistema, ao retornar melhores resultados em saúdeassociados a custos abaixo de um teto orçamentário aceitável, e com o da sociedade, ao evitar em maior grau, complicações e internações quando comparado à não inclusão.

Robust design optimization of gas turbine compression systems

Gas turbine compression systems are required to perform adequately over a range of operating conditions. Complexity has encouraged the conventional design process for compressors to focus initially on one operating point, usually the most commonor arduous, to draw up an outline design. Generally, only as this initial design is refined is its offdesign performance assessed in detail. Not only does this necessarily introduce a potentially costly and timeconsuming extra loop in the design process, but it also may result in a design whose offdesign behavior is suboptimal. Aversion of nonintrusive polynomial chaos was previously developed in which a set of orthonormal polynomials was generated to facilitate a rapid analysis of robustness in the presence of generic uncertainties with good accuracy. In this paper, this analysis method is incorporated in real time into the design process for the compression system of a three-shaft gas turbine aeroengine. This approach to robust optimization is shown to lead to designs that exhibit consistently improved system performance with reduced sensitivity to offdesign operation.