Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold

This paper employs a VAR-GARCH model to investigate the return links and volatility transmission between the S&P 500 and commodity price indices for energy, food, gold and beverages over the turbulent period from 2000 to 2011. Understanding the price behavior of commodity prices and the volatility transmission mechanism between these markets and the stock exchanges are crucial for each participant, including governments, traders, portfolio managers, consumers, and producers. For return and volatility spillover, the results show significant transmission among the S&P 500 and commodity markets. The past shocks and volatility of the S&P 500 strongly influenced the oil and gold markets. This study finds that the highest conditional correlations are between the S&P 500 and gold index and the S&P 500 and WTI index. We also analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for commodities/S&P 500 portfolio holdings using the estimates for each index. Overall, our findings illustrate several important implications for portfolio hedgers for making optimal portfolio allocations, engaging in risk management and forecasting future volatility in equity and commodity markets. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

The impacts of exchange rate volatility on vegetable trade flows

Trade flows of commodities are generally affected by the principles of comparative advantage in a free trade. However, trade flows might be enhanced or distorted not only by various government interventions, but also by exchange rate fluctuations among others. This study applies a commodity-specific gravity model to selected vegetable trade flows among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries to determine the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the trade flows. Using the data from 1996 to 2002, the results show that, while the exchange rate uncertainty significantly reduces trade in the majority of commodity flows, there is evidence that both short- and long-term volatility have positive effect on trade flows of specific commodities. This study also tests the regional preferential trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the EU, and their different effects on commodities.

Editorial for the JFR special issue on low altitude flight of UAVs

This special issue of the Journal of Field Robotics focuses on low altitude flight of UAVs with a particular emphasis on fully implemented systems that were tested in relevant environments or deployed in regular operations.

The effect of hip muscle strengthening on pain and disability for individuals with non-specific low back pain : a randomized controlled trial

Introduction Clinical guidelines for the treatment of chronic low back pain suggest the use of supervised exercise. Motor control (MC) based exercise is widely used within clinical practice but its efficacy is equivalent to general exercise therapy. MC exercise targets the trunk musculature. Considering the mechanical links between the hip, pelvis, and lumbar spine, surprisingly little focus has been on investigating the contribution of the hip musculature to lumbopelvic support. The purpose of this study is to compare the efficacy of two exercise programs for the treatment of non-specific low back pain (NSLBP). Methods Eighty individuals aged 18-65 years of age were randomized into two groups to participate in this trial. The primary outcome measures included self-reported pain intensity (0-100mm VAS) and percent disability (Oswestry Disability Index V2). Bilateral measures of hip strength (N/kg) and two dimensional frontal plane mechanics (º) were the secondary outcomes. Outcomes were measured at baseline and following a six-week home based exercise program including weekly sessions of real-time ultrasound imaging. Results Within group comparisons revealed clinically meaningful reductions in pain for both groups. The MC exercise only (N= 40, xˉ =-20.9mm, 95%CI -25.7, -16.1) and the combined MC and hip exercise (N= 40, xˉ = -24.9mm, 95%CI -30.8, -19.0). There was no statistical difference in the change of pain (xˉ =-4.0mm, t= -1.07, p=0.29, 95%CI -11.5, 3.5) or disability (xˉ =-0.3%, t=-0.19, p=0.85, 95%CI -11.5, 3.5) between groups. Conclusion Both exercise programs had similar and positive effects on NSLBP which support the use of the home based exercise programs with weekly supervised visits. However, the addition of specific hip strengthening exercises to a MC based exercise program did not result in significantly greater reductions in pain or disability. Trial Registration NCTO1567566 Funding: Worker’s Compensation Board Alberta Research Grant.

New reaction paths for metal diborides at low temperature and pressure

Attention has recently focussed on MgB2 superconductors (Tc~39K) which can be formed into wires with high material density and viable critical current densities (Jc)1. However, broader utilisation of this diboride and many others is likely to occur when facile synthesis for bulk applications is developed. To date, common synthesis methods include high temperature sintering of mixed elemental powders2, combustion synthesis3, mechano-chemical mixing with high temperature sintering4 and high pressure (~GPa region) with high temperature. In this work, we report on a lower temperature, moderate (<4MPa) pressure method to synthesise metal diborides.

F9 fimbriae of uropathogenic Escherichia coli are expressed at low temperature and recognise Galβ1-3GlcNAc-containing glycans

Uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) is the leading causative agent of urinary tract infections (UTI) in the developed world. Among the major virulence factors of UPEC, surface expressed adhesins mediate attachment and tissue tropism. UPEC strains typically possess a range of adhesins, with type 1 fimbriae and P fimbriae of the chaperone-usher class the best characterised. We previously identified and characterised F9 as a new chaperone-usher fimbrial type that mediates biofilm formation. However, the regulation and specific role of F9 fimbriae remained to be determined in the context of wild-type clinical UPEC strains. In this study we have assessed the distribution and genetic context of the f9 operon among diverse E. coli lineages and pathotypes and demonstrated that f9 genes are significantly more conserved in a UPEC strain collection in comparison to the well-defined E. coli reference (ECOR) collection. In the prototypic UPEC strain CFT073, the global regulator protein H-NS was identified as a transcriptional repressor of f9 gene expression at 37°C through its ability to bind directly to the f9 promoter region. F9 fimbriae expression was demonstrated at 20°C, representing the first evidence of functional F9 fimbriae expression by wild-type E. coli. Finally, glycan array analysis demonstrated that F9 fimbriae recognise and bind to terminal Galβ1-3GlcNAc structures.

A comparison of treatment options for management of end stage kidney disease in elderly patients : a systematic review

Background Chronic kidney disease is a global public health problem of increasing prevalence. There are five stages of kidney disease, with Stage 5 indicating end stage kidney disease (ESKD) requiring dialysis or death will eventually occur. Over the last two decades there have been increasing numbers of people commencing dialysis. A majority of this increase has occurred in the population of people who are 65 years and over. With the older population it is difficult to determine at times whether dialysis will provide any benefit over non-dialysis management. The poor prognosis for the population over 65 years raises issues around management of ESKD in this population. It is therefore important to review any research that has been undertaken in this area which compares outcomes of the older ESKD population who have commenced dialysis with those who have received non-dialysis management. Objective The primary objective was to assess the effect of dialysis compared with non-dialysis management for the population of 65 years and over with ESKD. Inclusion criteria Types of participants This review considered studies that included participants who were 65 years and older. These participants needed to have been diagnosed with ESKD for greater than three months and also be either receiving renal replacement therapy (RRT) (hemodialysis [HD] or peritoneal dialysis [PD]) or non-dialysis management. The settings for the studies included the home, self-care centre, satellite centre, hospital, hospice or nursing home. Types of intervention(s)/phenomena of interest This review considered studies where the intervention was RRT (HD or PD) for the participants with ESKD. There was no restriction on frequency of RRT or length of time the participant received RRT. The comparator was participants who were not undergoing RRT. Types of studies This review considered both experimental and epidemiological study designs including randomized controlled trials, non-randomized controlled trials, quasi-experimental, before and after studies, prospective and retrospective cohort studies, case control studies and analytical cross sectional studies. This review also considered descriptive epidemiological study designs including case series, individual case reports and descriptive cross sectional studies for inclusion. This review included any of the following primary and secondary outcome measures: •Primary outcome – survival measures •Secondary outcomes – functional performance score (e.g. Karnofsky Performance score) •Symptoms and severity of end stage kidney disease •Hospital admissions •Health related quality of life (e.g. KDQOL, SF36 and HRQOL) •Comorbidities (e.g. Charlson Comorbidity index).

Characteristics of low-speed vehicle run-over events in children : an 11-year review

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate the characteristics associated with fatal and non-fatal low-speed vehicle run-over (LSVRO) events in relation to person, incident and injury characteristics, in order to identify appropriate points for intervention and injury prevention. Methods: Data on all known LSVRO events in Queensland, Australia, over 11 calendar years (1999–2009) were extracted from five different databases representing the continuum of care ( prehospital to fatality) and manually linked. Descriptive and multivariate analyses were used to analyse the sample characteristics in relation to demographics, health service usage, outcomes, incident characteristics, and injury characteristics. Results: Of the 1641 LSVRO incidents, 98.4% (n=1615) were non-fatal, and 1.6% were fatal (n=26). Over half the children required admission to hospital (56%, n=921); mean length of stay was 3.4 days. Younger children aged 0–4 years were more frequently injured, and experienced more serious injuries with worse outcomes. Patterns of injury (injury type and severity), injury characteristics (eg, time of injury, vehicle type, driver of vehicle, incident location), and demographic characteristics (such as socioeconomic status, indigenous status, remoteness), varied according to age group. Almost half (45.6%; n=737) the events occurred outside major cities, and approximately 10% of events involved indigenous children. Parents were most commonly the vehicle drivers in fatal incidents. While larger vehicles such as four-wheel drives (4WD) were most frequently involved in LSVRO events resulting in fatalities, cars were most frequently involved in non-fatal events. Conclusions: This is the first study, to the authors’ knowledge, to analyse the characteristics of fatal and non-fatal LSVRO events in children aged 0–15 years on a state-wide basis. Characteristics of LSVRO events varied with age, thus age-specific interventions are required. Children living outside major cities, and indigenous children, were over-represented in these data. Further research is required to identify the burden of injury in these groups.

Incidence of paediatric fatal and non-fatal low speed vehicle run over events in Queensland, Australia : eleven year analysis

Background The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence of fatal and non-fatal Low Speed Vehicle Run Over (LSVRO) events among children aged 0–15 years in Queensland, Australia, at a population level. Methods Fatal and non-fatal LSVRO events that occurred in children resident in Queensland over eleven calendar years (1999-2009) were identified using ICD codes, text description, word searches and medical notes clarification, obtained from five health related data bases across the continuum of care (pre-hospital to fatality). Data were manually linked. Population data provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics were used to calculate crude incidence rates for fatal and non-fatal LSVRO events. Results There were 1611 LSVROs between 1999–2009 (IR = 16.87/100,000/annum). Incidence of non-fatal events (IR = 16.60/100,000/annum) was 61.5 times higher than fatal events (IR = 0.27/100,000/annum). LSVRO events were more common in boys (IR = 20.97/100,000/annum) than girls (IR = 12.55/100,000/annum), and among younger children aged 0–4 years (IR = 21.45/100000/annum; 39% or all events) than older children (5–9 years: IR = 16.47/100,000/annum; 10–15 years IR = 13.59/100,000/annum). A total of 896 (56.8%) children were admitted to hospital for 24 hours of more following an LSVRO event (IR = 9.38/100,000/annum). Total LSVROs increased from 1999 (IR = 14.79/100,000) to 2009 (IR = 18.56/100,000), but not significantly. Over the 11 year period, there was a slight (non –significant) increase in fatalities (IR = 0.37-0.42/100,000/annum); a significant decrease in admissions (IR = 12.39–5.36/100,000/annum), and significant increase in non-admissions (IR = 2.02-12.77/100,000/annum). Trends over time differed by age, gender and severity. Conclusion This is the most comprehensive, population-based epidemiological study on fatal and non-fatal LSVRO events to date. Results from this study indicate that LSVROs incur a substantial burden. Further research is required on the characteristics and risk factors associated with these events, in order to adequately inform injury prevention. Strategies are urgently required in order to prevent these events, especially among young children aged 0-4 years.

Corporate credit risk prediction under stochastic volatility and jumps

This paper examines the impact of allowing for stochastic volatility and jumps (SVJ) in a structural model on corporate credit risk prediction. The results from a simulation study verify the better performance of the SVJ model compared with the commonly used Merton model, and three sources are provided to explain the superiority. The empirical analysis on two real samples further ascertains the importance of recognizing the stochastic volatility and jumps by showing that the SVJ model decreases bias in spread prediction from the Merton model, and better explains the time variation in actual CDS spreads. The improvements are found particularly apparent in small firms or when the market is turbulent such as the recent financial crisis.

A novel manoeuvering model based on low-aspect-ratio lift theory and Lagrangian mechanics

This paper proposes a physically motivated reappraisal of manoeuvring models for ships and presents a new model developed from first principles by application of low aspect-ratio aerodynamic theory and Lagrangian mechanics. The coefficients of the model are shown to be related to physical processes, and validation is presented using the results from a planar motion mechanism dataset.