922 resultados para Local uniqueness of equilibrium prices
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This dissertation examines the behavior of the exchange rate under two different scenarios. The first one is characterized by, relatively, low inflation or a situation where prices adjust sluggishly. The second is a high inflation economy where prices respond very rapidly even to unanticipated shocks. In the first one, following a monetary expansion, the exchange rate overshoots, i.e. the nominal exchange rate depreciates at a faster pace than the price level. Under high levels of inflation, prices change faster than the exchange rate so the exchange rate undershoots its long run equilibrium value.^ The standard work in this area, Dornbusch (1976), explains the overshooting process in the context of perfect capital mobility and sluggish adjustment in the goods market. A monetary expansion will make the exchange rate increase beyond its long run equilibrium value. This dissertation expands on Dornbusch's model and provides an analysis of the exchange rate under conditions of currency substitution and price flexibility, characteristics of the Peruvian economy during the hyper inflation process that took place at the end of the 1980's. The results of the modified Dornbusch model reveal that, given a monetary expansion, the change in the price level will be larger than the change in the exchange rate if prices react more than proportionally to the monetary shock.^ We will expect this over-reaction in circumstances of high inflation when the velocity of money is increasing very rapidly. Increasing velocity of money, gives rise to a higher relative price variability which in turn contributes to the appearance of new financial (and also non-financial) instruments that report a higher return than the exchange rate, causing people to switch their demand for foreign exchange to this new assets. In the context of currency substitution, economic agents hoard and use foreign exchange as a store of value. The big decline in output originated by hyper inflation induces people to sell this hoarded money to finance current expenses, increasing the supply of foreign exchange in the market. Both, the decrease in demand and the increase in supply reduce the price of foreign exchange i.e. the real exchange rate. The findings mentioned above are tested using Peruvian data for the period January 1985-July 1990, the results of the econometric estimation confirm our findings in the theoretical model. ^
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Limited literature regarding parameter estimation of dynamic systems has been identified as the central-most reason for not having parametric bounds in chaotic time series. However, literature suggests that a chaotic system displays a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and our study reveals that the behavior of chaotic system: is also sensitive to changes in parameter values. Therefore, parameter estimation technique could make it possible to establish parametric bounds on a nonlinear dynamic system underlying a given time series, which in turn can improve predictability. By extracting the relationship between parametric bounds and predictability, we implemented chaos-based models for improving prediction in time series. ^ This study describes work done to establish bounds on a set of unknown parameters. Our research results reveal that by establishing parametric bounds, it is possible to improve the predictability of any time series, although the dynamics or the mathematical model of that series is not known apriori. In our attempt to improve the predictability of various time series, we have established the bounds for a set of unknown parameters. These are: (i) the embedding dimension to unfold a set of observation in the phase space, (ii) the time delay to use for a series, (iii) the number of neighborhood points to use for avoiding detection of false neighborhood and, (iv) the local polynomial to build numerical interpolation functions from one region to another. Using these bounds, we are able to get better predictability in chaotic time series than previously reported. In addition, the developments of this dissertation can establish a theoretical framework to investigate predictability in time series from the system-dynamics point of view. ^ In closing, our procedure significantly reduces the computer resource usage, as the search method is refined and efficient. Finally, the uniqueness of our method lies in its ability to extract chaotic dynamics inherent in non-linear time series by observing its values. ^
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This paper demonstrates a mechanism whereby rules can be extracted from a feedforward neural network trained to characterize the inflation "pass-through" problem in American monetary policy, defined as the relationship between changes in the growth rate(s) of individual commodities and the economy-wide rate of growth of consumer prices. Monthly price data are encoded and used to train a group of candidate connectionist architectures. One candidate is selected for rule extraction, using a custom decompositional extraction algorithm that generates rules in human-readable and machine-executable form. Rule and network accuracy are compared, and comments are made on the relationships expressed within the discovered rules. The types of discovered relationships could be used to guide monetary policy decisions.
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The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of agglomeration economies on the productivity of manufacturing local units in Ireland. Four types of agglomeration economies are considered in this study. These are internal economies of scale, localization economies, related variety and urbanization economies. This study makes a number of contributions to the literature. Firstly, this is the first study to conduct an investigation of the effects of agglomeration economies on the productivity of manufacturing local units operating in Ireland. Secondly, this study distinguishes between indigenous and foreign-owned local units which is important given the dual nature of the Irish economy (Krugman, 1997). Thirdly, in addition to considering the effects of agglomeration economies, this study examines the impact of spurious agglomeration on the productivity of foreign-owned local units. Using data from the Census of Industrial Local Units and a series of IV GMM estimators to control for endogeneity, the results of the analysis conducted in Chapter 6 reveal that there are differences in the effects of agglomeration economies on the productivity of indigenous and foreign-owned local units. In Chapter 7 the Census of Industrial Local Units is supplemented by additional data sources and more in-depth measures are generated to capture the features of each of the external agglomeration economies considered in this analysis. There is some evidence to suggest that the availability of local inputs has a negative and significant impact on productivity. The NACE based measures of related variety reveal that the availability of local inputs and knowledge spillovers for related sectors have a negative and significant impact on productivity. There is clear evidence to suggest that urbanization economies are important for increasing the productivity of indigenous local units. The findings reveal that a 1% increase in population density in the NUTS 3 region leads to an increase in the productivity of indigenous local units of approximately 0.07% to 0.08%. The results also reveal that there is a significant difference in the effects of agglomeration economies on the productivity of low-tech and medium/high-tech indigenous local units. The more in-depth measures of agglomeration economies used in Chapter 7 are also used in Chapter 8. A series of IV GMM regressions are estimated in order to identify the impact of agglomeration economies and spurious agglomeration on the productivity of foreign-owned local units operating in Ireland. There is some evidence found to suggest that the availability of a pool of skilled labour has a positive and significant on productivity of foreign-owned local units. There is also evidence to suggest that localization knowledge spillovers have a negative impact on the productivity of foreign-owned local units. There is strong evidence to suggest that the availability of local inputs has a negative impact on the productivity. The negative impact is not confined to the NACE 4-digit sector but also extends into related sectors as determined by Porter’s (2003) cluster classification. The cluster based skills measure of related variety has a positive and significant impact on the productivity of foreign-owned local units. Similar to Chapter 7, there is clear evidence to suggest that urbanization economies are important for increasing the productivity of foreign-owned local units. Both the summary measure and each of the more in-depth measures of agglomeration economies have a positive and significant impact on productivity. Spurious agglomeration has a positive and significant impact on the productivity of foreign-owned local units. The results indicate that the more foreign-owned local units of the same nationality in the country the greater the levels of productivity for the local unit. From a policy perspective, urbanization economies are clearly important for increasing the productivity of both indigenous and foreign-owned local units. Furthermore, the availability of a pool of skilled labour appears to be important for increasing the productivity of foreign-owned local units. Another policy implication that arises from these results relates to the differences observed between indigenous local units and foreign-owned local units and also between low-tech and medium/high-tech indigenous local units. These findings indicate that ‘one-size-fits-all’ type policies are not appropriate for increasing the productivity of local units operating in Ireland. Policies should be tailored to the needs of either indigenous or foreign-owned local units and also to specific sectors. This positive finding for own country spurious agglomeration is important from a policy perspective and is one that IDA Ireland should take on board.
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Here a new analytical methodology is described for measuring the isotopic composition of boron in foraminifera using multicollector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICPMS). This new approach is fast (~10 samples analysed in duplicate per analytical session) and accurate (to better than 0.25 per mil at 95% confidence) with acceptable sample size requirements (1-3 mg of carbonate). A core top calibration of several common planktic and two benthic species from geographically widespread localities shows a very close agreement between the isotopic composition measured by MC-ICPMS and the isotopic composition of B(OH)-4 in seawater (as predicted using the recently measured isotopic equilibrium factor of 1.0272) at the depth of habitat. A down core and core top investigation of boron concentration (B/Ca ratio) shows that the partition coefficient is influenced by [CO2-3] complicating the application of this proxy. Nevertheless, it is demonstrated that these two proxies can be used to fully constrain the carbonate system of surface water in the Caribbean Sea (ODP Site 999A) over the last 130 kyr. This reconstruction shows that during much of the Holocene and the last interglacial period surface water at Site 999A was in equilibrium with the atmosphere with respect to CO2. During the intervening colder periods although the surface water pCO2 was lower than the Holocene, it was a minor to significant source of CO2 to the atmosphere possibly due to either an expansion of the eastern equatorial Atlantic upwelling zone, or a more local expansion of coastal upwelling in the southern Caribbean. Such reorganisation of the oceanic carbonate system in favour of a larger source of CO2 to the atmosphere from the equatorial ocean may require mechanisms responsible for lowering atmospheric CO2 during glacial periods to be more efficient than previously supposed.
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Coherent quantum-state manipulation of trapped ions using classical laser fields is a trademark of modern quantum technologies. In this work, we study aspects of work statistics and irreversibility in a single trapped ion due to sudden interaction with the impinging laser. This is clearly an out-of-equilibrium process where work is performed through illumination of an ion by the laser. Starting with the explicit evaluation of the first moments of the work distribution, we proceed to a careful analysis of irreversibility as quantified by the nonequilibrium lag. The treatment employed here is not restricted to the Lamb-Dicke limit, what allows us to investigate the interplay between nonlinearities and irreversibility. We show, for instance, that in the resolved carrier and sideband regimes, variation of the Lamb-Dicke parameter may cause a non-monotonic behavior of the irreversibility indicator. Counterintuitively, we find a working point where nonlinearity helps reversibility, making the sudden quench of the Hamiltonian closer to what would have been obtained quasistatically and isothermally.
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Brown dwarfs and giant gas extrasolar planets have cold atmospheres with rich chemical compositions from which mineral cloud particles form. Their properties, like particle sizes and material composition, vary with height, and the mineral cloud particles are charged due to triboelectric processes in such dynamic atmospheres. The dynamics of the atmospheric gas is driven by the irradiating host star and/or by the rotation of the objects that changes during its lifetime. Thermal gas ionisation in these ultra-cool but dense atmospheres allows electrostatic interactions and magnetic coupling of a substantial atmosphere volume. Combined with a strong magnetic field , a chromosphere and aurorae might form as suggested by radio and x-ray observations of brown dwarfs. Non-equilibrium processes like cosmic ray ionisation and discharge processes in clouds will increase the local pool of free electrons in the gas. Cosmic rays and lighting discharges also alter the composition of the local atmospheric gas such that tracer molecules might be identified. Cosmic rays affect the atmosphere through air showers in a certain volume which was modelled with a 3D Monte Carlo radiative transfer code to be able to visualise their spacial extent. Given a certain degree of thermal ionisation of the atmospheric gas, we suggest that electron attachment to charge mineral cloud particles is too inefficient to cause an electrostatic disruption of the cloud particles. Cloud particles will therefore not be destroyed by Coulomb explosion for the local temperature in the collisional dominated brown dwarf and giant gas planet atmospheres. However, the cloud particles are destroyed electrostatically in regions with strong gas ionisation. The potential size of such cloud holes would, however, be too small and might occur too far inside the cloud to mimic the effect of, e.g. magnetic field induced star spots.
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Fisheries are very important to Uganda's economy. The sector provides a vital source of food, recreation, trade and socioeconomic well being for the people and community globally. The fisheries of small lakes are important for producing fish for local populations who are not near the large lakes. These satellite lakes support important fisheries and other economic activities like fishing, water for domestic purposes and tourism, besides socio-cultural values. A number-of fish;- species, some of which were found only in Lake Victoria have been depleted through over-exploitation, introduction of exotics especiaily Nile perch and environmental degradation. Some of these fishes have been observed to survive in satellite lakes in the Victoria and Kyoga Lake basins. The Nabugabo satellite lakes (Manywa, Kayugi and Kayanja) contain endemic Cichlid fish species acting as reservoirs and therefore very important for conservation of fish biodiversity. Despite the socio-economic importance and uniqueness of these satellite lakes little research on socio-economic studies has been carried out. The sustainability of the lake is being threatened by increasing human activities. The fish stocks and species diversity are declining and this poses a threat to the livelihood of the people who depend on fish for food and income. Arising from this need a study was carried out to establish the socio-economic aspects of Nabugabo fisheries and implications for management, on which basis resource users would be made aware of the impacts of their activities. It was hoped that this would go further to ensure wise use and management of the resources by the users. The specific objectives were identifying activities around the lake, establishing socioeconomic values attached to the lake, identifying problems of the lake and resource users and examining existing local based management institutions. Results show that the activities taking place around the lakes include fishing, farming, watering of animals, deforestation and charcoal burning, brick making, resort beach development and food and refreshment. The major problem facing the lake was found to be encroachment of Hippo grass (Vossia) on the lake, which is decreasing the size of the lake, and limiting open waters for fishing (this only applied to Lake Nabugabo). Other important problems include use of illegal fishing methods, declining fish stocks and loss of cultural identity. The resource users are most pressed by the low incomes resulting from poor fish catches, theft of gears and lack of market. On examining the resource base for the lakes, it was only Lake Nabugabo that had a Landing Management Committee. The other three lakes did not have leadership institutions in place except the local councils for the respective villages. This was probably due to observed limited fisheries activities. Majority of the respondents agreed that Government and other service providers should work jointly to supplement local beach management committees in the management of the lakes resources. This is a good gesture because with increase in fishing effort and rampant use of illegal fishing methods, there is need to strengthen management institutions present on the lake. This would require Government, local community and other service providers to work together in a participatory way to control environment-degrading activities and stop the use of illegal fishing methods. Burning of vegetation on the lake should be stopped since it enhances growth of this grass. Finally, traditional taboos; which are present on some of the Nabugabo lakes, should be enhanced, as away of preserving them.
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A detailed non-equilibrium state diagram of shape-anisotropic particle fluids is constructed. The effects of particle shape are explored using Naive Mode Coupling Theory (NMCT), and a single particle Non-linear Langevin Equation (NLE) theory. The dynamical behavior of non-ergodic fluids are discussed. We employ a rotationally frozen approach to NMCT in order to determine a transition to center of mass (translational) localization. Both ideal and kinetic glass transitions are found to be highly shape dependent, and uniformly increase with particle dimensionality. The glass transition volume fraction of quasi 1- and 2- dimensional particles fall monotonically with the number of sites (aspect ratio), while 3-dimensional particles display a non-monotonic dependence of glassy vitrification on the number of sites. Introducing interparticle attractions results in a far more complex state diagram. The ideal non-ergodic boundary shows a glass-fluid-gel re-entrance previously predicted for spherical particle fluids. The non-ergodic region of the state diagram presents qualitatively different dynamics in different regimes. They are qualified by the different behaviors of the NLE dynamic free energy. The caging dominated, repulsive glass regime is characterized by long localization lengths and barrier locations, dictated by repulsive hard core interactions, while the bonding dominated gel region has short localization lengths (commensurate with the attraction range), and barrier locations. There exists a small region of the state diagram which is qualified by both glassy and gel localization lengths in the dynamic free energy. A much larger (high volume fraction, and high attraction strength) region of phase space is characterized by short gel-like localization lengths, and long barrier locations. The region is called the attractive glass and represents a 2-step relaxation process whereby a particle first breaks attractive physical bonds, and then escapes its topological cage. The dynamic fragility of fluids are highly particle shape dependent. It increases with particle dimensionality and falls with aspect ratio for quasi 1- and 2- dimentional particles. An ultralocal limit analysis of the NLE theory predicts universalities in the behavior of relaxation times, and elastic moduli. The equlibrium phase diagram of chemically anisotropic Janus spheres and Janus rods are calculated employing a mean field Random Phase Approximation. The calculations for Janus rods are corroborated by the full liquid state Reference Interaction Site Model theory. The Janus particles consist of attractive and repulsive regions. Both rods and spheres display rich phase behavior. The phase diagrams of these systems display fluid, macrophase separated, attraction driven microphase separated, repulsion driven microphase separated and crystalline regimes. Macrophase separation is predicted in highly attractive low volume fraction systems. Attraction driven microphase separation is charaterized by long length scale divergences, where the ordering length scale determines the microphase ordered structures. The ordering length scale of repulsion driven microphase separation is determined by the repulsive range. At the high volume fractions, particles forgo the enthalpic considerations of attractions and repulsions to satisfy hard core constraints and maximize vibrational entropy. This results in site length scale ordering in rods, and the sphere length scale ordering in Janus spheres, i.e., crystallization. A change in the Janus balance of both rods and spheres results in quantitative changes in spinodal temperatures and the position of phase boundaries. However, a change in the block sequence of Janus rods causes qualitative changes in the type of microphase ordered state, and induces prominent features (such as the Lifshitz point) in the phase diagrams of these systems. A detailed study of the number of nearest neighbors in Janus rod systems reflect a deep connection between this local measure of structure, and the structure factor which represents the most global measure of order.
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The WorldFish Center was contracted by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) to lead a preliminary assessment of the Lac Maï-Ndombe fishery, one of three water bodies for which such an assessment will be completed in the Lac Tele-Lac Tumba Landscape of the CARPE program. Between Aug.29-Sept.5, 2007, a joint WorldFish Center-WWF team traveled to Lac Maï-Ndombe in Bandundu Province, and conducted an analysis of the conditions surrounding the fishery and fisherfolk livelihoods in a total of 19 villages and camps. Included in this assessment were preliminary analyses of market-chain networks and stakeholders’ receptivity to NGO capacity-building to improve commercialization of fish catches and/or to introduce local fisheries management regimes. While perceptions of declining fish stocks prevail, the absence of changes in reported fish sizes bring into doubt any urgent need for fishery management interventions. However, lacking scientific fish population structure data the team would not recommend any NGO interventions to increase fishing effort. Lac Maï-Ndombe fisherfolk have highly diversified levels of dependence on fishing, and while there is evidence that some stakeholder groups are flourishing, the majority of the fishery appears to be characterized by a livelihood insecurity and a lack of capital. This limits fishers’ abilities to negotiate with transporters and with Kinshasa-based market brokers, and in combination with a heavy burden of rent-seeking behavior by civil servants, this condition forces over half of the fishers to sell their fish and buy all manufactured products through local intermediaries at disadvantageous prices.
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This study reports an investigation of the pharmacological activity, cytotoxicity, and local effects of a liposomal formulation of the novel local anaesthetic ropivacaine (RVC) compared with its plain solution. RVC was encapsulated into large unilamellar vesicles (LUVs) composed of egg phosphatidylcholine, cholesterol and a-tocopherol (4:3:0.07, mole %). Particle size, partition coefficient determination and in-vitro release studies were used to characterize the encapsulation process. Cytotoxicity was evaluated by the tetrazolium reduction test using sciatic nerve Schwann cells in culture. Local anaesthetic activity was assessed by mouse sciatic and rat infraorbital nerve blockades. Histological analysis was performed to verify the myotoxic effects evoked by RVC formulations. Plain (RVCPLAIN) and liposomal RVC (RVCLUV) samples were tested at 0.125%, 0.25% and 0.5% concentrations. Vesicle size distribution showed liposomal populations of 370 and 130 nm (85 and 15%, respectively), without changes after RVC encapsulation. The partition coefficient value was 132 26 and in-vitro release assays revealed a decrease in RVC release rate (1.5 fold, P < 0.001) from liposomes. RVCLUV presented reduced cytotoxicity (P < 0.001) when compared with RVCPLAIN Treatment with RVCLUV increased the duration (P < 0.001) and intensity of the analgesic effects either on sciatic nerve blockade (1.4-1.6 fold) and infraorbital nerve blockade tests (1.5 fold), in relation to RVCPLAIN. Regarding histological analysis, no morphological tissue changes were detected in the area of injection and sparse inflammatory cells were observed in only one of the animals treated with RVCPLAIN or RVCLUV at 0.5%. Despite the differences between these preclinical studies and clinical conditions, we suggest RVCLUV as a potential new formulation, since RVC is a new and safe local anaesthetic agent.
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The purpose of this study is to examine the importance of the wild edible weed tasba (Senna obtusifolia) in Sanguéré Paul, Cameroon by examining how households use and manage the plant. This study found that local management of tasba is minimal compared to other traditional vegetables. Tasba was collected most frequently from en brousse or the communal, fallowed land which is often too degraded for traditional field crops to grow. Women subsistence farmers were closely involved with tasba as they are the ones responsible for food production within the family. Socioeconomic differences between women affects how they manage tasba and other vegetables to form a livelihood strategy to achieve food security within the family. Modifications and changes in management and use of tasba are influenced by time, proximity and income based on her perspective, preferences and resources available. Overall, tasba is an integral part of the traditional food system in Sanguéré Paul, and can play a role in the uncertain ecological and social setting of northern Cameroon.
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With progressive climate change, the preservation of biodiversity is becoming increasingly important. Only if the gene pool is large enough and requirements of species are diverse, there will be species that can adapt to the changing circumstances. To maintain biodiversity, we must understand the consequences of the various strategies. Mathematical models of population dynamics could provide prognoses. However, a model that would reproduce and explain the mechanisms behind the diversity of species that we observe experimentally and in nature is still needed. A combination of theoretical models with detailed experiments is needed to test biological processes in models and compare predictions with outcomes in reality. In this thesis, several food webs are modeled and analyzed. Among others, models are formulated of laboratory experiments performed in the Zoological Institute of the University of Cologne. Numerical data of the simulations is in good agreement with the real experimental results. Via numerical simulations it can be demonstrated that few assumptions are necessary to reproduce in a model the sustained oscillations of the population size that experiments show. However, analysis indicates that species "thrown together by chance" are not very likely to survive together over long periods. Even larger food nets do not show significantly different outcomes and prove how extraordinary and complicated natural diversity is. In order to produce such a coexistence of randomly selected species—as the experiment does—models require additional information about biological processes or restrictions on the assumptions. Another explanation for the observed coexistence is a slow extinction that takes longer than the observation time. Simulated species survive a comparable period of time before they die out eventually. Interestingly, it can be stated that the same models allow the survival of several species in equilibrium and thus do not follow the so-called competitive exclusion principle. This state of equilibrium is more fragile, however, to changes in nutrient supply than the oscillating coexistence. Overall, the studies show, that having a diverse system means that population numbers are probably oscillating, and on the other hand oscillating population numbers stabilize a food web both against demographic noise as well as against changes of the habitat. Model predictions can certainly not be converted at their face value into policies for real ecosystems. But the stabilizing character of fluctuations should be considered in the regulations of animal populations.
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The high cost of maize in Kenya is basically driven by East African regional commodity demand forces and agricultural drought. The production of maize, which is a common staple food in Kenya, is greatly affected by agricultural drought. However, calculations of drought risk and impact on maize production in Kenya is limited by the scarcity of reliable rainfall data. The objective of this study was to apply a novel hyperspectral remote sensing method to modelling temporal fluctuations of maize production and prices in five markets in Kenya. SPOT-VEGETATION NDVI time series were corrected for seasonal effects by computing the standardized NDVI anomalies. The maize residual price time series was further related to the NDVI seasonal anomalies using a multiple linear regression modelling approach. The result shows a moderately strong positive relationship (0.67) between residual price series and global maize prices. Maize prices were high during drought periods (i.e. negative NDVI anomalies) and low during wet seasons (i.e. positive NDVI anomalies). This study concludes that NDVI is a good index for monitoring the evolution of maize prices and food security emergency planning in Kenya. To obtain a very strong correlation for the relationship between the wholesale maize price and the global maize price, future research could consider adding other price-driving factors into the regression models.
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A α-amylase is included in hydrolase’s enzyme (E.C. 3.2.1.3), which catalyzed the breaking down of α-1,3-glycosidic bound on amylase chain and produced glucose as end product. In mammalian and poultry, α-amylase enzyme has a function as starch breaking down or changed glycogen to glucose. It was used as energy resource in the body. A α-amylase enzyme is protein that resulted in expression from one or several genes, so that has various characteristics among individual. To study the existence and the characteristic of α-amylase enzyme, therefore it has been conducted a research about the connection of α-amylase enzyme unit number with glucose content in Tegal, Magelang and Mojosari duck blood (each of them consisted of 28 birds). This research used Completely Randomized Design (CRD) with seven replicates for each treatment. The result research showed that either the unit number of α-amylase enzyme activity or glucose content in these local breed of duck has a highly significant different (P<0.01). This result showed that genetic factor (breed of duck) has influenced either enzyme unit number or their catalytic activity on substrate, so the capability to form blood glucose inter breed of duck also different. It was suggested that their enzyme characteristics have strong connection with the sequence of amino acid as α-amylase enzyme protein composer, which was the result of gene expression. From the result, it was concluded that the unit number and catalytic activity of α-amylase enzyme and blood glucose content in the breed of local duck was affected by genetic factor (breed of duck). (Animal Production 5(1): 50-56 (2003) Key words: Enzyme, K-Amylase, Blood, Glucose, Duck