972 resultados para Laplace-Metropolis estimator


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O tema que nos propomos a estudar é Choque de Capital: criminalização da pobreza e (re)significação da questão social no Rio de Janeiro. A delimitação espaço temporal de nosso estudo situa-se na cidade do Rio de Janeiro, de 2009 a 2012. O período selecionado corresponde a primeira gestão do prefeito Eduardo Paes (PMDB) e os primeiros anos de execução das denominadas ações de Choque de Ordem. A proposta apresentada tem como pressuposto a centralidade do estudo da metrópole e a relação entre especulação imobiliária e capital financeiro, como um dos motivadores da criminalização da pobreza na contemporaneidade, cujo principal objetivo é tornar os espaços "ordenados" fonte de lucro, não importando as consequências impostas às classes subalternas. Considerando que este paradigma evidencia um processo de criminalização das classes subalternas e a necessidade compreendermos o modo específico de enfrentamento à pobreza por parte da prefeitura do Rio de Janeiro considerando suas implicações para o Serviço Social, optamos pelo seguinte caminho de estudo traduzido na forma dos capítulos assim identificados: I-Barbárie e passivização: aportes para compreensão da banalização da violência no Brasil, II- Das bases de tradição autoritária ao Esplendor do Estado de Polícia e III- Reordenamento urbano, mídia e consenso no Rio de Janeiro: Choque de Ordem para quem?. Acreditamos que o estudo aprofundado desses temas propiciarão um entendimento acerca da realidade, base insuprimível para sua transformação.

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Durante muito tempo, os membros das câmaras de vereadores brasileiras tiveram suas atuações políticas limitadas à circunscrição territorial dos seus respectivos municípios. Isso se deve muito à forma de organização e à outorga de competências conferidas aosentes federativos. O modelo de federação criado no Brasil apresenta peculiaridades em relação a outros modelos existentes no mundo. Uma das mais evidentes é o reconhecimento constitucional dos municípios como ente integrante de sua estrutura, dotando-os de autonomia em relação aos Estados-membros e à União, bem como conferidas atribuições políticas e administrativas próprias. Esse status transformou consideravelmente o papel das municipalidades brasileiras após o advento da Constituição de 1988. Mas, infelizmente, a forma de distribuição dos recursos públicos do país concentra grande parte das receitas nos entes federativos de maior dimensão, em especial da União. Essa desproporcionalidade impede que as municipalidades exerçam, de forma plena, todas as missões que lhes foram outorgadas. Em consequência,eles sentem o peso das várias incumbências a serem desenvolvidas, sem que possuam as verbas suficientes para isso. Uma das soluções para minimizar essa situação está na iniciativa dese integrarem a outros entes para que, de forma conjunta, concretizem as políticas públicas necessárias à população. Atualmente, verifica-se que muitos problemas existentes nos municípios são comuns a todos que estejam situados em determinada região. Esse fenômeno ocorre principalmente quando a expansão urbana gerou as conurbações, interligando os municípios de uma forma tal que acabam compartilhando, os anseios e mazelas. Prevendo essa situação, o constituinte brasileiro de 1988 outorgouaos Estados-membros a prerrogativa de instituir as regiões metropolitanas e outras formas de unidade territorial urbana.Possibilitou, comoisso, a criação de uma organização administrativa que pudesse desenvolverações estatais de dimensão regional, conjugando os esforços dos entes federativos envolvidos para a consecução do bem comum. Aproveitando a existência dessas regionalidades administrativas, surgiunas câmaras de vereadores o anseio de ampliar seu campo de atuação para levar à discussão regional os temas inerentes a todos os municípios que as integram.Assim, criaram-se em algumas partes do país, os parlamentos metropolitanos.Consistem em um fórum de discussão e atuação integrada das edilidades municipais inseridas nessas unidades territoriais urbanas. A presente pesquisa tem como objeto central analisar a formação e atuação desses parlamentos, bem como os resultados já alcançados por alguns, além de sugerir propostas que venham fortalecer o seu papel. Essas instituições podem contribuir consideravelmente para o aperfeiçoamento da denominada governança interfederativa das regiões metropolitanas, nos termos que são propostos pelo Estatuto das Metrópoles (Lei Federal n. 13.089/15). Trata-sede um vetor de colaboração e associação entre os entes e órgãos de poder integrantes da região metropolitana, em busca de concretizar as funções públicas de interesse comumem prol da população nela inserida.

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Este trabalho busca realizar uma discussão de grande relevância para o entendimento do que é ser pescador artesanal em tempos em que a modernização do espaço se faz pujante e intende a subjugar suas formas de trabalho e de vida. Em decorrência disto, pretende-se aqui estimular reflexões em torno da relação existente entre trabalho e moradia para estes sujeitos, os quais vivem em pleno contexto metropolitano. Para tal tarefa, serão elucidadas questões centrais que abrangem o cotidiano dos pescadores artesanais que vivem no bairro de Pedra de Guaratiba, localizado na Zona Oeste do município do Rio de Janeiro (RJ), às margens da Baía de Sepetiba. Sendo assim, realizaremos uma tentativa de compreensão analítica dos agentes de base popular, suas experiências de vida e seus conflitos no que se refere à produção social da metrópole. Veremos que os pescadores artesanais representam uma categoria de extrema complexidade e que não é compreendida sequer parcialmente pelas instituições públicas que regem o seu ordenamento. Complexidade esta que se inscreve também na relação entre moradia e trabalho na vida desses sujeitos, se tornando assim, um dos pilares de sustentação de suas existências e, consequentemente, do seu próprio resistir. Para a percepção dessas relações e dos sentidos (valores) que animam a vida desses homens e mulheres, buscamos a realização de uma metodologia em que o pesquisador torna o seu olhar sensível ao reconhecimento dos elos que unem esses sujeitos aos seus lugares de trabalho e de vida, entendendo assim as dinâmicas responsáveis por construir as peculiaridades que os diferenciam (mas não os excluem) dos demais trabalhadores urbanos. Por fim, chegaremos ao entendimento de que morar e trabalhar para os pescadores artesanais são pares indissociáveis, os quais contribuem para a fortificação da categoria em tempos de grande adversidade

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The trajectory of the somatic membrane potential of a cortical neuron exactly reflects the computations performed on its afferent inputs. However, the spikes of such a neuron are a very low-dimensional and discrete projection of this continually evolving signal. We explored the possibility that the neuron's efferent synapses perform the critical computational step of estimating the membrane potential trajectory from the spikes. We found that short-term changes in synaptic efficacy can be interpreted as implementing an optimal estimator of this trajectory. Short-term depression arose when presynaptic spiking was sufficiently intense as to reduce the uncertainty associated with the estimate; short-term facilitation reflected structural features of the statistics of the presynaptic neuron such as up and down states. Our analysis provides a unifying account of a powerful, but puzzling, form of plasticity.

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Rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) tend to aggregate near rocky, cobble, or generally rugged areas that are difficult to survey with bottom trawls, and evidence indicates that assemblages of rockfish species may differ between areas accessible to trawling and those areas that are not. Consequently, it is important to determine grounds that are trawlable or untrawlable so that the areas where trawl survey results should be applied are accurately identified. To this end, we used multibeam echosounder data to generate metrics that describe the seafloor: backscatter strength at normal and oblique incidence angles, the variation of the angle-dependent backscatter strength within 10° of normal incidence, the scintillation of the acoustic intensity scattered from the seafloor, and the seafloor rugosity. We used these metrics to develop a binary classification scheme to estimate where the seafloor is expected to be trawlable. The multibeam echosounder data were verified through analyses of video and still images collected with a stereo drop camera and a remotely operated vehicle in a study at Snakehead Bank, ~100 km south of Kodiak Island in the Gulf of Alaska. Comparisons of different combinations of metrics derived from the multibeam data indicated that the oblique-incidence backscatter strength was the most accurate estimator of trawlability at Snakehead Bank and that the addition of other metrics provided only marginal improvements. If successful on a wider scale in the Gulf of Alaska, this acoustic remote-sensing technique, or a similar one, could help improve the accuracy of rockfish stock assessments.

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Fishery-independent estimates of spawning biomass (BSP) of the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) on the south and lower west coasts of Western Australia (WA) were obtained periodically between 1991 and 1999 by using the daily egg production method (DEPM). Ichthyoplankton data collected during these surveys, specifically the presence or absence of S. sagax eggs, were used to investigate trends in the spawning area of S. sagax within each of four regions. The expectation was that trends in BSP and spawning area were positively related. With the DEPM model, estimates of BSP will change proportionally with spawning area if all other variables remain constant. The proportion of positive stations (PPS), i.e., stations with nonzero egg counts — an objective estimator of spawning area — was high for all south coast regions during the early 1990s (a period when the estimated BSP was also high) and then decreased after the mid-1990s. There was a decrease in PPS from the mid-1990s to 1999. The particularly low estimates in 1999 followed a severe epidemic mass mortality of S. sagax throughout their range across southern Australia. Deviations from the expected relationship between BSP and PPS were used to identify uncertainty around estimates of BSP. Because estimation of spawning area is subject to less sampling bias than estimation of BSP, the deviation in the relation between the two provides an objective basis for adjusting some estimates of the latter. Such an approach is particularly useful for fisheries management purposes when sampling problems are suspected to be present. The analysis of PPS undertaken from the same set of samples from which the DEPM estimate is derived will help provide information for stock assessments and for the management of purse-seine fisheries.

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Bycatch, or the incidental catch of nontarget organisms during fi shing operations, is a major issue in U.S. shrimp trawl fisheries. Because bycatch is typically discarded at sea, total bycatch is usually estimated by extrapolating from an observed bycatch sample to the entire fleet with either mean-per-unit or ratio estimators. Using both field observations of commercial shrimp trawlers and computer simulations, I compared five methods for generating bycatch estimates that were used in past studies, a mean-per-unit estimator and four forms of the ratio estimator, respectively: 1) the mean fish catch per unit of effort, where unit effort was a proxy for sample size, 2) the mean of the individual fish to shrimp ratios, 3) the ratio of mean fish catch to mean shrimp catch, 4) the mean of the ratios of fish catch per time fished (a variable measure of effort), and 5) the ratio of mean fish catch per mean time fished. For field data, different methods used to estimate bycatch of Atlantic croaker, spot, and weakfish yielded extremely different results, with no discernible pattern in the estimates by method, geographic region, or species. Simulated fishing fleets were used to compare bycatch estimated by the fi ve methods with “actual” (simulated) bycatch. Simulations were conducted by using both normal and delta lognormal distributions of fish and shrimp and employed a range of values for several parameters, including mean catches of fish and shrimp, variability in the catches of fish and shrimp, variability in fishing effort, number of observations, and correlations between fish and shrimp catches. Results indicated that only the mean per unit estimators provided statistically unbiased estimates, while all other methods overestimated bycatch. The mean of the individual fish to shrimp ratios, the method used in the South Atlantic Bight before the 1990s, gave the most biased estimates. Because of the statistically significant two- and 3-way interactions among parameters, it is unlikely that estimates generated by one method can be converted or corrected to estimates made by another method: therefore bycatch estimates obtained with different methods should not be compared directly.

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Adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) has been the subject of many publications about sampling aggregated populations. Choosing the criterion value that invokes ACS remains problematic. We address this problem using data from a June 1999 ACS survey for rockfish, specifically for Pacific ocean perch (Sebastes alutus), and for shortraker (S. borealis) and rougheye (S. aleutianus) rockfish combined. Our hypotheses were that ACS would outperform simple random sampling (SRS) for S. alutus and would be more applicable for S. alutus than for S. borealis and S. aleutianus combined because populations of S. alutus are thought to be more aggregated. Three alternatives for choosing a criterion value were investigated. We chose the strategy that yielded the lowest criterion value and simulated the higher criterion values with the data after the survey. Systematic random sampling was conducted across the whole area to determine the lowest criterion value, and then a new systematic random sample was taken with adaptive sampling around each tow that exceeded the fixed criterion value. ACS yielded gains in precision (SE) over SRS. Bootstrapping showed that the distribution of an ACS estimator is approximately normal, whereas the SRS sampling distribution is skewed and bimodal. Simulation showed that a higher criterion value results in substantially less adaptive sampling with little tradeoff in precision. When time-efficiency was examined, ACS quickly added more samples, but sampling edge units caused this efficiency to be lessened, and the gain in efficiency did not measurably affect our conclusions. ACS for S. alutus should be incorporated with a fixed criterion value equal to the top quartile of previously collected survey data. The second hypothesis was confirmed because ACS did not prove to be more effective for S. borealis-S. aleutianus. Overall, our ACS results were not as optimistic as those previously published in the literature, and indicate the need for further study of this sampling method.

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Life-history dynamics of pinfish (Lagodon rhomboides) were examined from data derived from random station surveys conducted in Tampa Bay and adjacent Gulf of Mexico waters during 1993–97. In addition, patterns in spatial distribution and abundance in Gulf of Mexico waters were investigated. Ages determined from whole otoliths ranged from 0 to 7 years, and von Bertalanffy growth models for males and females were not significantly different. Von Bertalanffy growth model parameters were L∞=219.9 mm SL, k =0.33/yr, and t0 =–1.10 years for all fish combined. High gonadosomatic indices during October–December indicated that some spawning may occur in Tampa Bay. Estimated lengths at 50% maturity were 132 mm SL for males and 131 mm SL for females. Total instantaneous mortality rates derived from the Chapman-Robson estimator ranged from 0.88 to 1.08/yr, and natural mortality was estimated to be 0.78/yr. In Gulf of Mexico waters, pinfish catch rates declined with increasing depth, and most pinfish were caught in <17 m of water. Length distributions showed that pinfish segregate by size with increasing depth.

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Fishermen co-operatives can be a potent agency for bringing about the social and economic progress of the fishermen community. Streamlining of marketing procedures and provision of infrastructural facilities would result in lowering of production costs and increased benefits accruing to the producers. Another consequence will be an increase in fish yield whereby the problem of the nutritional food gap can be resolved. Success in cooperation is determined by diverse factors like effective leadership and management, loyal and informed members, availability of adequate and timely finance and infrastructure. Proximity to a large metropolis will also have a significant impact on the creation of a favourable environment.

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We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility (GCPV), to predict the latent standard deviations of a sequence of random variables. To make predictions we use Bayesian inference, with the Laplace approximation, and with Markov chain Monte Carlo as an alternative. We find both methods comparable. We also find our model can outperform GARCH on simulated and financial data. And unlike GARCH, GCPV can easily handle missing data, incorporate covariates other than time, and model a rich class of covariance structures.

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In recent years there has been a growing interest amongst the speech research community into the use of spectral estimators which circumvent the traditional quasi-stationary assumption and provide greater time-frequency (t-f) resolution than conventional spectral estimators, such as the short time Fourier power spectrum (STFPS). One distribution in particular, the Wigner distribution (WD), has attracted considerable interest. However, experimental studies have indicated that, despite its improved t-f resolution, employing the WD as the front end of speech recognition system actually reduces recognition performance; only by explicitly re-introducing t-f smoothing into the WD are recognition rates improved. In this paper we provide an explanation for these findings. By treating the spectral estimation problem as one of optimization of a bias variance trade off, we show why additional t-f smoothing improves recognition rates, despite reducing the t-f resolution of the spectral estimator. A practical adaptive smoothing algorithm is presented, whicy attempts to match the degree of smoothing introduced into the WD with the time varying quasi-stationary regions within the speech waveform. The recognition performance of the resulting adaptively smoothed estimator is found to be comparable to that of conventional filterbank estimators, yet the average temporal sampling rate of the resulting spectral vectors is reduced by around a factor of 10. © 1992.