Parameter recovery for a skew-normal IRT model under a Bayesian approach: hierarchical framework, prior and kernel sensitivity and sample size

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is an interest in studying latent variables (or latent traits). Usually such latent traits are assumed to be random variables and a convenient distribution is assigned to them. A very common choice for such a distribution has been the standard normal. Recently, Azevedo et al. [Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 55 (2011), pp. 353-365] proposed a skew-normal distribution under the centred parameterization (SNCP) as had been studied in [R. B. Arellano-Valle and A. Azzalini, The centred parametrization for the multivariate skew-normal distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 99(7) (2008), pp. 1362-1382], to model the latent trait distribution. This approach allows one to represent any asymmetric behaviour concerning the latent trait distribution. Also, they developed a Metropolis-Hastings within the Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm based on the density of the SNCP. They showed that the algorithm recovers all parameters properly. Their results indicated that, in the presence of asymmetry, the proposed model and the estimation algorithm perform better than the usual model and estimation methods. Our main goal in this paper is to propose another type of MHWGS algorithm based on a stochastic representation (hierarchical structure) of the SNCP studied in [N. Henze, A probabilistic representation of the skew-normal distribution, Scand. J. Statist. 13 (1986), pp. 271-275]. Our algorithm has only one Metropolis-Hastings step, in opposition to the algorithm developed by Azevedo et al., which has two such steps. This not only makes the implementation easier but also reduces the number of proposal densities to be used, which can be a problem in the implementation of MHWGS algorithms, as can be seen in [R.J. Patz and B.W. Junker, A straightforward approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for item response models, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(2) (1999), pp. 146-178; R. J. Patz and B. W. Junker, The applications and extensions of MCMC in IRT: Multiple item types, missing data, and rated responses, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(4) (1999), pp. 342-366; A. Gelman, G.O. Roberts, and W.R. Gilks, Efficient Metropolis jumping rules, Bayesian Stat. 5 (1996), pp. 599-607]. Moreover, we consider a modified beta prior (which generalizes the one considered in [3]) and a Jeffreys prior for the asymmetry parameter. Furthermore, we study the sensitivity of such priors as well as the use of different kernel densities for this parameter. Finally, we assess the impact of the number of examinees, number of items and the asymmetry level on the parameter recovery. Results of the simulation study indicated that our approach performed equally as well as that in [3], in terms of parameter recovery, mainly using the Jeffreys prior. Also, they indicated that the asymmetry level has the highest impact on parameter recovery, even though it is relatively small. A real data analysis is considered jointly with the development of model fitting assessment tools. The results are compared with the ones obtained by Azevedo et al. The results indicate that using the hierarchical approach allows us to implement MCMC algorithms more easily, it facilitates diagnosis of the convergence and also it can be very useful to fit more complex skew IRT models.

Modeling the gluon propagator in Landau gauge: Lattice estimates of pole masses and dimension-two condensates

We present an analytic description of numerical results for the Landau-gauge SU(2) gluon propagator D(p(2)), obtained from lattice simulations (in the scaling region) for the largest lattice sizes to date, in d = 2, 3 and 4 space-time dimensions. Fits to the gluon data in 3d and in 4d show very good agreement with the tree-level prediction of the refined Gribov-Zwanziger (RGZ) framework, supporting a massive behavior for D(p(2)) in the infrared limit. In particular, we investigate the propagator's pole structure and provide estimates of the dynamical mass scales that can be associated with dimension-two condensates in the theory. In the 2d case, fitting the data requires a noninteger power of the momentum p in the numerator of the expression for D(p(2)). In this case, an infinite-volume-limit extrapolation gives D(0) = 0. Our analysis suggests that this result is related to a particular symmetry in the complex-pole structure of the propagator and not to purely imaginary poles, as would be expected in the original Gribov-Zwanziger scenario.

Exploration of the parameter space in an agent-based model of tuberculosis spread: emergence of drug resistance in developing vs developed countries

In this work we present an agent-based model for the spread of tuberculosis where the individuals can be infected with either drug-susceptible or drug-resistant strains and can also receive a treatment. The dynamics of the model and the role of each one of the parameters are explained. The whole set of parameters is explored to check their importance in the numerical simulation results. The model captures the beneficial impact of the adequate treatment on the prevalence of tuberculosis. Nevertheless, depending on the treatment parameters range, it also captures the emergence of drug resistance. Drug resistance emergence is particularly likely to occur for parameter values corresponding to less efficacious treatment, as usually found in developing countries.

Mean-Field critical behavior and ergodicity break in a nonequilibrium one-dimensional RSOS growth model

We investigate the nonequilibrium roughening transition of a one-dimensional restricted solid-on-solid model by directly sampling the stationary probability density of a suitable order parameter as the surface adsorption rate varies. The shapes of the probability density histograms suggest a typical Ginzburg-Landau scenario for the phase transition of the model, and estimates of the "magnetic" exponent seem to confirm its mean-field critical behavior. We also found that the flipping times between the metastable phases of the model scale exponentially with the system size, signaling the breaking of ergodicity in the thermodynamic limit. Incidentally, we discovered that a closely related model not considered before also displays a phase transition with the same critical behavior as the original model. Our results support the usefulness of off-critical histogram techniques in the investigation of nonequilibrium phase transitions. We also briefly discuss in the appendix a good and simple pseudo-random number generator used in our simulations.

THE FIRST DETERMINATION OF THE VISCOSITY PARAMETER IN THE CIRCUMSTELLAR DISK OF A Be STAR

Be stars possess gaseous circumstellar decretion disks, which are well described using standard alpha-disk theory. The Be star 28 CMa recently underwent a long outburst followed by a long period of quiescence, during which the disk dissipated. Here we present the first time-dependent models of the dissipation of a viscous decretion disk. By modeling the rate of decline of the V-band excess, we determine that the viscosity parameter alpha = 1.0 +/- 0.2, corresponding to a mass injection rate (M) over dot = (3.5 +/- 1.3) x 10(-8) M-circle dot yr(-1). Such a large value of a suggests that the origin of the turbulent viscosity is an instability in the disk whose growth is limited by shock dissipation. The mass injection rate is more than an order of magnitude larger than the wind mass-loss rate inferred from UV observations, implying that the mass injection mechanism most likely is not the stellar wind, but some other mechanism.

Minimal Landau background gauge on the lattice

We present the first numerical implementation of the minimal Landau background gauge for Yang-Mills theory on the lattice. Our approach is a simple generalization of the usual minimal Landau gauge and is formulated for the general SU(N) gauge group. We also report on preliminary tests of the method in the four-dimensional SU(2) case, using different background fields. Our tests show that the convergence of the numerical minimization process is comparable to the case of a null background. The uniqueness of the minimizing functional employed is briefly discussed.

Deviation from quark number scaling of the anisotropy parameter v(2) of pions, kaons, and protons in Au+Au collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV

Measurements of the anisotropy parameter v(2) of identified hadrons (pions, kaons, and protons) as a function of centrality, transverse momentum p(T), and transverse kinetic energy KET at midrapidity (vertical bar eta vertical bar < 0.35) in Au + Au collisions at root s(N N) = 200 GeV are presented. Pions and protons are identified up to p(T) = 6 GeV/c, and kaons up to p(T) = 4 GeV/c, by combining information from time-of-flight and aerogel Cerenkov detectors in the PHENIX Experiment. The scaling of v(2) with the number of valence quarks (n(q)) has been studied in different centrality bins as a function of transverse momentum and transverse kinetic energy. A deviation from previously observed quark-number scaling is observed at large values of KET/n(q) in noncentral Au + Au collisions (20-60%), but this scaling remains valid in central collisions (0-10%).

Constraining the dark energy and smoothness parameter with type Ia supernovae and gamma-ray bursts

The existence of inhomogeneities in the observed Universe modifies the distance-redshift relations thereby affecting the results of cosmological tests in comparison to the ones derived assuming spatially uniform models. By modeling the inhomogeneities through a Zeldovich-Kantowski-Dyer-Roeder approach which is phenomenologically characterized by a smoothness parameter alpha, we rediscuss the constraints on the cosmic parameters based on type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) data. The present analysis is restricted to a flat Lambda CDM model with the reasonable assumption that Lambda does not clump. A chi(2) analysis using 557 SNe Ia data from the Union2 compilation data (R. Amanullah et al., Astrophys. J. 716, 712 (2010).) constrains the pair of parameters (Omega(m), alpha) to Omega(m) = 0.27(-0.03)(+0.08) (2 sigma) and alpha >= 0.25. A similar analysis based only on 59 Hymnium GRBs (H. Wei, J. Cosmol. Astropart. Phys. 08 (2010) 020.) constrains the matter density parameter to be Omega(m) = 0.35(-0.24)(+0.62) (2 sigma) while all values for the smoothness parameter are allowed. By performing a joint analysis, it is found that Omega(m) = 0.27(-0.06)(+0.06) and alpha >= 0.52. As a general result, although considering that current GRB data alone cannot constrain the smoothness alpha parameter, our analysis provides an interesting cosmological probe for dark energy even in the presence of inhomogeneities.

Calculation of parameter ranges for robust gain tuning of power system controllers

This work proposes a computational tool to assist power system engineers in the field tuning of power system stabilizers (PSSs) and Automatic Voltage Regulators (AVRs). The outcome of this tool is a range of gain values for theses controllers within which there is a theoretical guarantee of stability for the closed-loop system. This range is given as a set of limit values for the static gains of the controllers of interest, in such a way that the engineer responsible for the field tuning of PSSs and/or AVRs can be confident with respect to system stability when adjusting the corresponding static gains within this range. This feature of the proposed tool is highly desirable from a practical viewpoint, since the PSS and AVR commissioning stage always involve some readjustment of the controller gains to account for the differences between the nominal model and the actual behavior of the system. By capturing these differences as uncertainties in the model, this computational tool is able to guarantee stability for the whole uncertain model using an approach based on linear matrix inequalities. It is also important to remark that the tool proposed in this paper can also be applied to other types of parameters of either PSSs or Power Oscillation Dampers, as well as other types of controllers (such as speed governors, for example). To show its effectiveness, applications of the proposed tool to two benchmarks for small signal stability studies are presented at the end of this paper.

Comparison of physical properties of two exogenous surfactants: new parameter.

The pulmonary surfactant has essential physical properties for normal lung function. The most important property is the surface tension. In this work, it was evaluated the surface tension of two commercial exogenous surfactants used in surfactant replacement therapy, poractant alfa (Curosurf, Chiesi Farmaceuticals, Italy) and beractant (Survanta, Abbott Laboratories, USA) using new parameters. A Langmuir film balance (Minitrough, KSV Instruments, Finland) was used to measure surface tension of poractant alfa and beractant samples. For both samples, we prepared a solution of 1 mg/m dissolved in chloroform (100π`), which was applied over a subphase of milli-Q water (175 ml) in the chamber of the balance. The chamber has two moving barriers that can change its surface area between a maximal value of 112.5 cm 2 , and a minimal value of 22.5 cm 2, defining a balance cycle. Each surfactant had its surface tension evaluated during 20 balance cycles for three times. Four quantities were calculated from the experiment: Minimum Surface Tension (MTS), defined as the surface tension at minimal surface area during the first cycle; Mean Work Cycle (MWC), defined as the mean hysteresis area of the measured surface tension curve of the last 16 balance cycles; Critical Active Surface Area in Compression (CASAC) or in Expansion (CASAE), defined as the maximal chamber area where the surfactant is active on the surface in compression or expansion. The t-test was applied to verify for statistical significance of the results. Comproved with the MST is the same reported in literature, the differences between MWC, CASAC, and CASAE were statistically significant (p<0.001). The MWC, CASAC and CASAE were higher for poractant alfa than for beractant. A higher MWC for poractant alfa means higher elastic recoil of the lung in comparison with beractant. Using a different methodology, our results showed that poractant alfa is probably more effective in a surfactant replacement therapy than beractant due the use of poractant alfa in relation to the use of beractant in preterm infants with Respiratory Distress Syndrome (RDS).

The role of asymmetries in rock-paper-scissors biodiversity models.

The maintenance of biodiversity is a long standing puzzle in ecology. It is a classical result that if the interactions of the species in an ecosystem are chosen in a random way, then complex ecosystems can't sustain themselves, meaning that the structure of the interactions between the species must be a central component on the preservation of biodiversity and on the stability of ecosystems. The rock-paper-scissors model is one of the paradigmatic models that study how biodiversity is maintained. In this model 3 species dominate each other in a cyclic way (mimicking a trophic cycle), that is, rock dominates scissors, that dominates paper, that dominates rock. In the original version of this model, this dominance obeys a 'Z IND 3' symmetry, in the sense that the strength of dominance is always the same. In this work, we break this symmetry, studying the effects of the addition of an asymmetry parameter. In the usual model, in a two dimensional lattice, the species distribute themselves according to spiral patterns, that can be explained by the complex Landau-Guinzburg equation. With the addition of asymmetry, new spatial patterns appear during the transient and the system either ends in a state with spirals, similar to the ones of the original model, or in a state where unstable spatial patterns dominate or in a state where only one species survives (and biodiversity is lost).

Multi-parameter observations from coastal waters to the deepest trenche: challenges studying the carbón system with optode technology

[EN]This presentation will give examples on how multi-parameter platforms have been used in a variety of applications ranging from shallow coastal on-line observatories down to measuring in the deepest Ocean trenches. Focus will be on projects in which optode technology (primarily for CO2 and O2) has served to study different aspects of the carbon system including primary production/consumption, air-sea exchange, leakage detection from underwater storage of CO2 and measurements from moving platforms like gliders and ferries. The performance of recently developed pH optodes will als

Einfluß von Topologie und Verscherung auf Dynamik und mechanische Parameter bei Homopolymeren

Die FT-Rheologie wird zur Unterscheidung verschiedener Kamm-Topologien in Polystyrollösungen und –schmelzen angewendet. Die Polystyrole werden in Abhängigkeit der Deborahzahl De unter LAOS-Bedingungen vermessen. Die Meßergebnisse zeigen, daß der Schritt von wohldefinierten Systemen (lineare Ketten, Sterne) zu solchen mit statistischer Verteilung wie in Kämmen zu großen Veränderungen sowohl im linearen als auch im nichtlinearen Bereich der rheologischen Messungen führt. Sowohl die Masterkurven als auch die Intenstiäten I3/1 und Phasen Phi3 der Nichtlinearitäten der einzelnen Proben weisen jeweils deutliche Unterschiede untereinander auf. Diese sind durch die bisherigen Ergebnisse noch nicht vollständig mit topologischen Merkmalen in Verbindung zu bringen. Die Messungen wurden mit dem von McLeish eingeführten Pom-pom Modell und daraus weiterentwickelten double convected-Pom-pom Modell (DCPP) simuliert und lieferten gute Übereinstimmung sowie auch Vorhersagen über den experimentell nicht mehr zugänglichen Bereich. Zur Untersuchung des Einflusses von mechanischer Scherung auf die lokale, molekulare Dynamik wird das LAOS-Experiment in situ mit dielektrischer Spektroskopie kombiniert. Dazu wurde eine Apparatur entwickelt, die das hochsensitive ARES-Rheometer mit dem hochauflösenden dielektrischen ALPHA-Analyzer verbindet. Mit dieser Apparatur wurde das Typ-A Polymer 1,4-cis-Polyisopren, mit einem Dipolmoment entlang des Rückgrats, bei oszillatorischer Scherung unter gleichzeitiger Aufnahme eines dielektrischen Spektrums vermessen. Es konnte gezeigt werden, daß die oszillatorische Verscherung weder die charakteristische Relaxationszeit noch die Form des Normal Mode Peaks beeinflußt, wohl aber die dielektrische Stärke Delta epsilon. Diese entspricht der Fläche unter dem e“-Peak und kann mit einer Debye- und einer Cole/Davidson-Funktion angepasst werden. Die Abnahme der dielektrischen Stärke mit zunehmender Scheramplitude kann mit der Orientierungsverteilung der End-zu-End-Vektoren in der Probe erklärt werden.

Untersuchung zur Bestimmung quantitativer Parameter der Lungenventilation mittels CT und MRT

Die zuverlässige Berechnung von quantitativen Parametern der Lungenventilation ist für ein Verständnis des Verhaltens der Lunge und insbesondere für die Diagnostik von Lungenerkrankungen von großer Bedeutung. Nur durch quantitative Parameter sind verlässliche und reproduzierbare diagnostische Aussagen über den Gesundheitszustand der Lunge möglich. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurden neue quantitative Verfahren zur Erfassung der Lungenventilation basierend auf der dynamischen Computer- (CT) und Magnetresonanztomographie (MRT) entwickelt. Im ersten Teil dieser Arbeit wurde die Frage untersucht, ob das Aufblähen der Lunge in gesunden Schweinelungen und Lungen mit Akutem Lungenversagen (ARDS) durch einzelne, diskrete Zeitkonstanten beschrieben werden kann, oder ob kontinuierliche Verteilungen von Zeitkonstanten die Realität besser beschreiben. Hierzu wurden Serien dynamischer CT-Aufnahmen während definierter Beatmungsmanöver (Drucksprünge) aufgenommen und anschließend aus den Messdaten mittels inverser Laplace-Transformation die zugehörigen Verteilungen der Zeitkonstanten berechnet. Um die Qualität der Ergebnisse zu analysieren, wurde der Algorithmus im Rahmen von Simulationsrechnungen systematisch untersucht und anschließend in-vivo an gesunden und ARDS-Schweinelungen eingesetzt. Während in den gesunden Lungen mono- und biexponentielle Verteilungen bestimmt wurden, waren in den ARDS-Lungen Verteilungen um zwei dominante Zeitkonstanten notwendig, um die gemessenen Daten auf der Basis des verwendeten Modells verlässlich zu beschreiben. Es wurden sowohl diskrete als auch kontinuierliche Verteilungen gefunden. Die CT liefert Informationen über das solide Lungengewebe, während die MRT von hyperpolarisiertem 3He in der Lage ist, direkt das eingeatmete Gas abzubilden. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wurde zeitlich hochaufgelöst das Einströmen eines 3He-Bolus in die Lunge erfasst. Über eine Entfaltungsanalyse wurde anschließend das Einströmverhalten unter Idealbedingungen (unendlich kurzer 3He-Bolus), also die Gewebeantwortfunktion, berechnet und so eine Messtechnik-unabhängige Erfassung des Einströmens von 3He in die Lunge ermöglicht. Zentrale Fragestellung war hier, wie schnell das Gas in die Lunge einströmt. Im Rahmen von Simulationsrechnungen wurde das Verhalten eines Entfaltungsalgorithmus (basierend auf B-Spline Repräsentationen) systematisch analysiert. Zusätzlich wurde ein iteratives Entfaltungsverfahren eingesetzt. Aus zeitlich hochaufgelösten Messungen (7ms) an einer gesunden und einer ARDS-Schweinelunge konnte erstmals nachgewiesen werden, dass das Einströmen in-vivo in weniger als 0,1s geschieht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen Zeitkonstanten im Bereich von 4ms–50ms, wobei zwischen der gesunden Lungen und der ARDS-Lunge deutliche Unterschiede beobachtet wurden. Zusammenfassend ermöglichen daher die in dieser Arbeit vorgestellten Algorithmen eine objektivere Bestimmung quantitativer Parameter der Lungenventilation. Dies ist für die eindeutige Beschreibung ventilatorischer Vorgänge in der Lunge und somit für die Lungendiagnostik unerlässlich. Damit stehen quantitative Methoden für die Lungenfunktionsdiagnostik zur Verfügung, deren diagnostische Relevanz im Rahmen wissenschaftlicher und klinischer Studien untersucht werden kann.