Leishmaniasis transmission: distribution and coarse-resolution ecology of two vectors and two parasites in Egypt

Introduction: In past decades, leishmaniasis burden has been low across Egypt; however, changing environment and land use has placed several parts of the country at risk. As a consequence, leishmaniasis has become a particularly difficult health problem, both for local inhabitants and for multinational military personnel. Methods: To evaluate coarse-resolution aspects of the ecology of leishmaniasis transmission, collection records for sandflies and Leishmania species were obtained from diverse sources. To characterize environmental variation across the country, we used multitemporal Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2005-2011. Ecological niche models were generated using MaxEnt, and results were analyzed using background similarity tests to assess whether associations among vectors and parasites (i.e., niche similarity) can be detected across broad geographic regions. Results: We found niche similarity only between one vector species and its corresponding parasite species (i.e., Phlebotomus papatasi with Leishmania major), suggesting that geographic ranges of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis and its potential vector may overlap, but under distinct environmental associations. Other associations (e.g., P. sergenti with L. major) were not supported. Mapping suitable areas for each species suggested that northeastern Egypt is particularly at risk because both parasites have potential to circulate. Conclusions: Ecological niche modeling approaches can be used as a first-pass assessment of vector-parasite interactions, offering useful insights into constraints on the geography of transmission patterns of leishmaniasis.

The influence of low-frequency noise pollution on the quality of life and place in sustainable cities: a case study from northern Portugal

Discussing urban planning requires rethinking sustainability in cities and building healthy environments. Historically, some aspects of advancing the urban way of life have not been considered important in city planning. This is particularly the case where technological advances have led to conflicting land use, as with the installation of power poles and building electrical substations near residential areas. This research aims to discuss and rethink sustainability in cities, focusing on the environmental impact of low-frequency noise and electromagnetic radiation on human health. It presents data from a case study in an urban space in northern Portugal, and focuses on four guiding questions: Can power poles and power lines cause noise? Do power poles and power lines cause discomfort? Do power poles and power lines cause discomfort due to noise? Can power poles and power lines affect human health? To answer these questions, we undertook research between 2014 and 2015 that was comprised of two approaches. The first approach consisted of evaluating the noise of nine points divided into two groups â near the sourceâ (e.g., up to 50 m from power poles) and â away from the sourceâ (e.g., more than 250 m away from the source). In the second approach, noise levels were measured for 72 h in houses located up to 20 m from the source. The groups consist of residents living within the distance range specified for each group. The measurement values were compared with the proposed criteria for assessing low-frequency noise using the DEFRA Guidance (University of Salford). In the first approach, the noise caused discomfort, regardless of the group. In the second approach, the noise had fluctuating characteristics, which led us to conclude that the noise caused discomfort.

Risco de inundação em áreas rurais: bacia do rio Luís Alves (SC)

O presente trabalho identificou e mapeou as áreas inundáveis da Bacia do Rio Luís Alves. A bacia, de uso da terra predominantemente agrícola, possui um notável histórico de inundações, demandando estudos que subsidiem o planejamento e a gestão do território. A partir da coleta de dados pluviométricos e fluviométricos, associada ao processamento de dados espaciais, foi desenvolvida uma metodologia em ambiente de SIG, que possibilitou a simulação de eventos de inundação, bem como a determinação de áreas de risco.

Environmental management systems implementation

All organisations make some contribution to the degradation of the environment through their use of resources and production of waste. Environmental management systems (EMS) standards can provide a tool for companies to systematically reduce their environmental impacts. ISO 14001 was published in 1996. This fitted in with plans of the case study company to take proactive action in this area, even though there was no legislative requirement for them to do so. As EMS implementation was a new area at the time, appropriate methodologies were developed to address different aspects of the implementation, and ISO 14001 was successfully implemented in the company. The results of the primary research included: ♦ Drawing up a methodology for identifying and interpreting the environmental legislation that may have an impact on the organisation and compiling a register of such regulations. ♦ Developing a robust methodology for assessing significant environmental aspects and impacts and applying this to the software company. ♦ Establishing objectives and targets for those aspects identified as significant and implementing environmental management programmes to meet these. ♦ Developing an internal environmental audit procedure based on auditing against the significant aspects. ♦ Integrating areas of the EMS with the existing quality management system in order to avoid duplication of effort. ♦ Undergoing an external assessment process in order to achieve certification of the system. The thesis concludes that the systematic approach defined in ISO 14001 provided a mechanism that the organisation was able to adopt to bring about improvement in its environmental performance. The system was based on a thorough evaluation of the organisation's significant environmental aspects in order to bring about a reduction in its negative impacts. The ISO 14001 requirement for continual improvement is the key driver of the system, and this is what differentiates it from ISO 9000.

Investigating the long term planning framework for the Galway Bay community from climate change.

This research looked at the scientific evidence available on climate change and in particular, projections on sea level rise which ranged from 0.5m to 2m by the end of the century. These projections were then considered in an Irish context. A review of current policy in Ireland revealed that there was no dedicated Government policy on climate change or coastal zone management. In terms of spatial planning policy, it became apparent that there was little or no guidance on climate change either at a national, regional or local level. Therefore, to determine the likely impacts of sea level rise in Ireland based on current spatial planning practice and policy, a scenario-building exercise was carried out for two case study areas in Galway Bay. The two case study areas were: Oranmore, a densely populated town located to the east of Inner Galway Bay; and Tawin Island, a rural dispersed community, located to the south east of Inner Galway Bay. A ‘best’ and ‘worse’ case scenario was envisaged for both areas in terms of sea level rise. In the absence of specific climate change policies it was projected that in the ‘best’ case scenario of 0.5m sea level rise, Tawin Island would suffer serious and adverse impacts while Oranmore was likely to experience slight to moderate impacts. However, in the ‘worse’ case scenario of a 2m sea level rise, it was likely that Tawin Island would be abandoned while many houses, businesses and infrastructure built within the floodplain of Oranmore Bay would be inundated and permanently flooded. In this regard, it was the author’s opinion that a strategic and integrated climate change policy and adaptation plan is vital for the island of Ireland that recognises the importance of integrated land use and spatial planning in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

Estudio de gestión de la finca La Esperanza, municipio de Pueblo Nuevo, Nicaragua

El presente proyecto tiene como finalidad el análisis de la Finca la Esperanza, en la localidad de Pueblo Nuevo, en la República de Nicaragua. En dicho análisis se estudian parámetros edáficos, calidad de agua y económicos, con el objetivo de poder plantear una propuesta de mejora en los rendimientos de la finca tanto a nivel económico como ambiental. La iniciativa de realizar este estudio surge de las necesidades del propio agricultor, que plantea el desarrollo rural sobre la base de actividades respetuosas con el medio. Las estrategias a los problemas sociales originados por la producción agraria industrial, como el éxodo rural, la pérdida de la agricultura convencional, la nueva función de los espacios agrarios de la sociedad, etc., se formalizaron en el denominado Desarrollo Sostenible. A nivel de finca cualquier concepción de sustentabilidad necesita que el agrosistema sea considerado como un ecosistema, en el que la investigación y la producción busquen no solamente altos rendimientos sino la optimización del sistema como un todo. Tal propósito requiere armonizar una viabilidad económica con otras variables, como estabilidad ecológica y equidad social. Para ello, los principios básicos de un sistema sostenible son: la conservación de los recursos renovables, la adaptación del cultivo al ambiente y el mantenimiento de un moderado pero sostenible nivel de producción. Como resultado de los análisis y observaciones hechas a lo largo de la estancia en la finca, se propone un plan de actuación de 10 años de duración en los cuales se procura alcanzar no únicamente unas cuotas máximas de rendimiento sino también la supervivencia de los recursos, base de la familia Videa Vanegas, propietarios.

Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.

Climate-based empirical models show biased predictions of butterfly communities along environmental gradients

A better understanding of the factors that mould ecological community structure is required to accurately predict community composition and to anticipate threats to ecosystems due to global changes. We tested how well stacked climate-based species distribution models (S-SDMs) could predict butterfly communities in a mountain region. It has been suggested that climate is the main force driving butterfly distribution and community structure in mountain environments, and that, as a consequence, climate-based S-SDMs should yield unbiased predictions. In contrast to this expectation, at lower altitudes, climate-based S-SDMs overpredicted butterfly species richness at sites with low plant species richness and underpredicted species richness at sites with high plant species richness. According to two indices of composition accuracy, the Sorensen index and a matching coefficient considering both absences and presences, S-SDMs were more accurate in plant-rich grasslands. Butterflies display strong and often specialised trophic interactions with plants. At lower altitudes, where land use is more intense, considering climate alone without accounting for land use influences on grassland plant richness leads to erroneous predictions of butterfly presences and absences. In contrast, at higher altitudes, where climate is the main force filtering communities, there were fewer differences between observed and predicted butterfly richness. At high altitudes, even if stochastic processes decrease the accuracy of predictions of presence, climate-based S-SDMs are able to better filter out butterfly species that are unable to cope with severe climatic conditions, providing more accurate predictions of absences. Our results suggest that predictions should account for plants in disturbed habitats at lower altitudes but that stochastic processes and heterogeneity at high altitudes may limit prediction success of climate-based S-SDMs.

Projecte d’instal·lacions sostenibles d’una masia rural aïllada

En aquest projecte es vol donar solució a la contaminació que es produeix a les llars ja sigui en forma de gasos d’efecte hivernacle o la contaminació d’aqüífers i rius per les aigües residuals d’aquestes. Els objectius a aconseguir són la disminució del consum d’energia de la llar, reduint així el consum de combustibles fòssils, amb la conseqüent disminució de gasos d’efecte hivernacle i l’estalvi econòmic que això suposa. I per altra banda la depuració de les aigües residuals, tot i que actualment totes les grans poblacions de Catalunya de més de 10.000 habitants ja disposen de EDARS i en pocs anys en tindran totes les de més de 2000 habitants. Però en aquest cas es tracta d’una població molt petita que no disposa de xarxa de clavegueram. En primer lloc s’ha plantejat un sistema de calefacció d’energia geotèrmica que ens permet aprofitar l’energia tèrmica que es va emmagatzemant a la terra degut a l’escalfor del sol i que ens permet extreure d’aquesta fins a ¾ parts de l’energia tèrmica necessària per el sistema de calefacció. En segon lloc es planteja un sistema de producció d’energia elèctrica per panells fotovoltaics que produeixi el consum elèctric anual familiar, tot i que no de forma directe, sinó venent l’energia a la xarxa elèctrica i comprant-la després de la xarxa. Per últim es projecta un sistema de depuració d’aigües per mitjà d’un aiguamoll artificial que permetrà a la casa, que no disposa de xarxa de clavegueram, retornar les aigües residuals en bones mediambientals a l’entorn rural que envolta l’edificació, sense perjudicar la fauna i els rius que l’envolten

Delimitation of kala-azar risk areas in the district of Vaishali in Bihar (India) using a geo-environmental approach

Remote sensing and geographical information technologies were used to discriminate areas of high and low risk for contracting kala-azar or visceral leishmaniasis. Satellite data were digitally processed to generate maps of land cover and spectral indices, such as the normalised difference vegetation index and wetness index. To map estimated vector abundance and indoor climate data, local polynomial interpolations were used based on the weightage values. Attribute layers were prepared based on illiteracy and the unemployed proportion of the population and associated with village boundaries. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to estimate the relationship between environmental variables and disease incidence across the study area. The cell values for each input raster in the analysis were assigned values from the evaluation scale. Simple weighting/ratings based on the degree of favourable conditions for kala-azar transmission were used for all the variables, leading to geo-environmental risk model. Variables such as, land use/land cover, vegetation conditions, surface dampness, the indoor climate, illiteracy rates and the size of the unemployed population were considered for inclusion in the geo-environmental kala-azar risk model. The risk model was stratified into areas of "risk"and "non-risk"for the disease, based on calculation of risk indices. The described approach constitutes a promising tool for microlevel kala-azar surveillance and aids in directing control efforts.

De viles rurals a indrets de la regió metropolitana de Barcelona: transformacions històriques del paisatge a la Vall del Congost (Figaró-Montmany, l’Ametlla del Vallès i la Garriga, 1850-2010)

El projecte ha assolit la majoria d’objectius, ajustats a la reducció d'una quarta part de l'import concedit: 1) caracteritzar la transformació del paisatge agro-forestal i urbà a dos municipis de la vall del Congost, La Garriga i Figaró-Montmany, reconstruint amb SIG els mapes d'ús del sòl de 1854, 1949, 1956 i 2005, obtenint per intersecció de cobertes les matrius dels canvis d'ús; i 2) avaluar amb l’índex de connectivitat ecològica l'impacte ambiental d'aquells canvis des del punt de vista de la biodiversitat i la resiliència del paisatges, amb un especial èmfasi en la reforestació induïda per l'abandonament rural i la pèrdua de paisatges en mosaic, en un àmbit més gran pel període 1956-1993-2005. Aquests resultats han permès preparar varis articles per publicar en co-autoría a revistes com Landscape History, Environment and History o Landscape and Urban Planning. Ja és a punt de poder-se lliurar el primer amb el títol de "Looking backwards into a Mediterranean edge environment: Landscape changes and ecological connectivity in El Congost Valley (province of Barcelona, Catalonia) 1850-2005", incloent dos objectius esmentats a la memòria: identificar les principals forces motores d'aquells canvis en el paisatge relacionant els usos del sòl amb les formes d'ordenació del territori, caracteritzar-ne les forces rectores econòmico-socials i el paper jugat per la protecció del Parc Natural del Montseny i els Cingles de Bertí. Els resultats també permetran abordar en el futur altres aspectes, com per exemple estimar el potencial energètic de la biomassa local tot cercant que el seu aprofitament generi sinèrgies territorials positives per a l'ecologia del paisatge amb la recuperació d’una ramaderia extensiva i una agricultura ecològica que facin possible la restauració dels paisatges en mosaic. L'estudi ha pogut incorporar un aspecte inicialment no previst, el cens d'orquídies mediterrànies a Figaró-Montmany elaborat pel naturalista Paul Wilcox

Developing methodologies to allow the robust prediction dynamic context dominated by perturbations

El principal objectiu del projecte era desenvolupar millores conceptuals i metodològiques que permetessin una millor predicció dels canvis en la distribució de les espècies (a una escala de paisatge) derivats de canvis ambientals en un context dominat per pertorbacions. En un primer estudi, vàrem comparar l'eficàcia de diferents models dinàmics per a predir la distribució de l'hortolà (Emberiza hortulana). Els nostres resultats indiquen que un model híbrid que combini canvis en la qualitat de l'hàbitat, derivats de canvis en el paisatge, amb un model poblacional espacialment explícit és una aproximació adequada per abordar canvis en la distribució d'espècies en contextos de dinàmica ambiental elevada i una capacitat de dispersió limitada de l'espècie objectiu. En un segon estudi abordarem la calibració mitjançant dades de seguiment de models de distribució dinàmics per a 12 espècies amb preferència per hàbitats oberts. Entre les conclusions extretes destaquem: (1) la necessitat de que les dades de seguiment abarquin aquelles àrees on es produeixen els canvis de qualitat; (2) el biaix que es produeix en la estimació dels paràmetres del model d'ocupació quan la hipòtesi de canvi de paisatge o el model de qualitat d'hàbitat són incorrectes. En el darrer treball estudiarem el possible impacte en 67 espècies d’ocells de diferents règims d’incendis, definits a partir de combinacions de nivells de canvi climàtic (portant a un augment esperat de la mida i freqüència d’incendis forestals), i eficiència d’extinció per part dels bombers. Segons els resultats dels nostres models, la combinació de factors antropogènics del regim d’incendis, tals com l’abandonament rural i l’extinció, poden ser més determinants per als canvis de distribució que els efectes derivats del canvi climàtic. Els productes generats inclouen tres publicacions científiques, una pàgina web amb resultats del projecte i una llibreria per a l'entorn estadístic R.

An analysis of the metabolic patterns of two rural communities affected by soy expansion in the North of Argentina

The soy expansion model in Argentina generates structural changes in traditional lifestyles that can be associated with different biophysical and socioeconomic impacts. To explore this issue, we apply an innovative method for integrated assessment - the Multi Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) framework - to characterize two communities in the Chaco Region, Province of Formosa, North of Argentina. These communities have recently experienced the expansion of soy production, altering their economic activity, energy consumption patterns, land use, and human time allocation. The integrated characterization presented in the paper illustrates the differences (biophysical, socioeconomic, and historical) between the two communities that can be associated with different responses. The analysis of the factors behind these differences has important policy implications for the sustainable development of local communities in the area.

Concepção de uma Estratégia de Geoconservação para Cabo Verde e sua Aplicação à Ilha de Santiago

A singularidade de certos registos geológicos impressos em rochas, as peculiaridades estruturais e dinâmicas dos diversos elementos dos geossistemas, a análise dos seus valores intrínsecos, bem como da sua vulnerabilidade e dos perigos de degradação que os podem afectar, entre outros parâmetros, são factores que concorrem para a necessidade de assegurar a conservação do património geológico. É neste contexto que surge a geoconservação que preconiza a gestão do património geológico com base num conjunto de medidas e acções para a identificação, manutenção ou recuperação do valor natural dos elementos da geodiversidade numa perspectiva de sustentabilidade dos recursos geológicos que integram a componente abiótica do sistema natural. A geoconservação, à escala internacional, tem um desenvolvimento irregular. Enquanto algumas regiões estão bastante avançadas, como na Europa, outras revelam ainda alguma inércia relativamente à implementação de iniciativas que se devem enquadrar no âmbito da conservação da Natureza e do ordenamento do território. Em África, são ainda pontuais os exemplos de geoconservação pelo que, este trabalho, pretende ser promotor de uma política de geoconservação neste continente. No presente trabalho, concebemos uma estratégia de geoconservação para Cabo Verde e aplicamo-la, a título de exemplo, à ilha de Santiago. A metodologia utilizada, baseada em critérios internacionalmente reconhecidos e aceites para o inventário do património geológico de valor científico, consiste no estabelecimento de “categorias temáticas” que representam as características e evolução geológica do arquipélago. Foram propostas nove categorias para Cabo Verde e, para cada uma delas, foram inventariados diversos locais de interesse, dos quais 40 foram propostos como geossítios na ilha de Santiago. Com base nestes geossítios, propuseram-se linhas metodológicas para as etapas subsequentes que integram uma estratégia de geoconservação, nomeadamente, a quantificação, classificação, conservação, valorização, divulgação e monitorização de geossítios. Embora a conservação da geodiversidade esteja prevista, embora de forma pouco clara, na actual legislação ambiental cabo-verdiana, a execução desta estratégia de geoconservação poderá representar um dos primeiros passos para a definição, caracterização e valorização, sistemáticas, do património geológico nacional e contribuir para a implementação de uma política de sustentabilidade ambiental para o país.

Draft environmental report on Cape Verde

Faced with recurrent drought and famine during five centuries of human occupation, the small and densely populated Cape Verde Islands have a history of severe environmental problems. The arid climate and steep, rocky terrain provide scant resources for traditional subsistance farming under the best conditions, and in years of low rainfall the failure of rainfed crops causes massive food shortages. Agricultural use of steep slopes where rainfall is highest has led to soil erosion, as has removal of the island's vegetation for fuel and livestock. Pressure on the vegetation is particularly severe in dry years. International aid can provide relief from famine, and the introduction of modern agricultural and conservation techniques can improve the land and increase yield, but it is unlikely that Cape Verde can ever be entirely self -sufficient in food. Ultimately, the solution of Cape Verde's economic and environmental problems will probably require the development of productive urban jobs so the population can shift away from the intensive and destructive use of land for subsistance farming. In the meantime, the people of Cape Verde can best be served by instituting fundamental measures to conserve and restore the land so that it can be used to its fullest potential. The primary environmental problems in Cape Verde today are: 1. Soil degradation. Encouraged by brief but heavy rains and steep slopes, soil erosion is made worse by lack of vegetation. Soils are also low in organic matter due to the practice of completely removing crop plants and natural vegetation for food, fuel or livestock feed. 2. Water shortage. Brief and erratic rainfall in combination with rapid runoff makes surface water scarce and difficult to use. Groundwater supplies can be better developed but capabilities are poorly known and the complex nature of the geological substrate makes estimation difficult. Water is the critical limiting factor to the agricultural capability of the islands. 3. Fuel shortage. Demand for fuel is intense and has resulted in the virtual elimination of native vegetation. Fuelwood supplies are becoming more and more scarce and costly. Development of managed fuelwood plantations and alternate energy sources is required. 4. Inappropriate land use. Much of the land now used for raising crops or livestock is too steep or too arid for these purposes, causing erosion and destruction of vegetation. Improving yield in more appropriate areas and encouraging less damaging uses of the remaining marginal lands can help to alleviate this problem.