A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

First record of molluscs naturally infected with Angiostrongylus cantonensis (Chen, 1935) (Nematoda: Metastrongylidae) in Brazil

Seeking the identification of Angiostrongylus cantonensis as a potential etiological agent of three clinical cases of eosinophilic meningitis, mollusc specimens were collected in the state of Espírito Santo, Brazil. The snails were identified as Sarasinula marginata (45 specimens), Subulina octona (157), Achatina fulica (45) and Bradybaena similaris (23). Larvae obtained were submitted to polymerase chain reaction and restriction fragment length polymorphism diagnosis. Their genetic profile were corresponded to A. cantonensis. Rattus norvegicus experimentally infected with third-stage larvae, developed menigoencephalitis, and parasites became sexually mature in the lungs. Additionally, larvae obtained from A. fulica snails, from São Vicente, state of São Paulo, also showed genetic profiles of this nematode. This is the first record of Brazilian molluscs infected with this nematode species.

Trypanosoma cruzi: a stage-specific calpain-like protein is induced after various kinds of stress

Calpains are calcium-dependent cysteine proteinases found in all living organisms and are involved in diverse cellular processes. Calpain-like proteins have been reported after in silico analysis of the Tritryps genome and are believed to play important roles in cell functions of trypanosomatids. We describe the characterization of a member of this family, which is differentially expressed during the life-cycle of Trypanosoma cruzi.

Spontaneous stage differentiation of mouse-virulent Toxoplasma gondii RH parasites in skeletal muscle cells: an ultrastructural evaluation

Although the predilection for Toxoplasma gondii to form cysts in the nervous system and skeletal and heart muscles has been described for more than fifty years, skeletal muscle cells (SkMCs) have not been explored as a host cell type to study the Toxoplasma-host cell interaction and investigate the intracellular development of the parasite. Morphological aspects of the initial events in the Toxoplasma-SkMC interaction were analysed and suggest that there are different processes of protozoan adhesion and invasion and of the subsequent fate of the parasite inside the parasitophorous vacuole (PV). Using scanning electron microscopy,Toxoplasma tachyzoites from the mouse-virulent RH strain were found to be attached to SkMCs by the anterior or posterior region of the body, with or without expansion of the SkMC membrane. This suggests that different types of parasite internalization occurred. Asynchronous multiplication and differentiation of T. gondii were observed. Importantly, intracellular parasites were seen to display high amounts of amylopectin granules in their cytoplasm, indicating that tachyzoites of the RH strain were able to differentiate spontaneously into bradyzoites in SkMCs. This stage conversion occurred in approximately 3% of the PVs. This is particularly intriguing as tachyzoites of virulent Toxoplasma strains are not thought to be prone to cyst formation. We discuss whether biological differences in host cells are crucial to Toxoplasma stage conversion and suggest that important questions concerning the host cell type and its relevance in Toxoplasma differentiation are still unanswered.

Baseline characteristics of patients with chronic kidney disease stage 3 and stage 4 in Spain: the MERENA observational cohort study.

To obtain information on cardiovascular morbidity, hypertension control, anemia and mineral metabolism based on the analysis of the baseline characteristics of a large cohort of Spanish patients enrolled in an ongoing prospective, observational, multicenter study of patients with stages 3 and 4 chronic kidney diseases (CKD)

Development of physiological resistance and its stage specificity in Culex quinquefasciatus after selection with deltamethrin in Assam, India

The study investigated the development and stage specificity of physiological resistance to insecticides in a colony of Culex quinquefasciatus Say (Diptera: Culicidae) mosquitoes, which are vectors of bancroftian filariasis in India, after selection with deltamethrin. Resistance was selected by exposing the larvae to the concentration of deltamethrin that caused 50% mortality in the tested population (i.e., LC50). Under continuous selection pressure, the LC50 increased steadily in subsequent generations. The estimated LC50 for the F0 generation was 0.409 μg/L; the LC50 first displayed a substantial increase in the F5 generation (5.616 μg/L) and reached 121.902 μg/L in the F10 generation. The objective of this study was to establish a deltamethrin-resistant colony to develop a research programme that will study the evolution of physiological resistance patterns and stage-specific resistance responses in Cx. quinquefasciatus larvae and adults under laboratory conditions. An approximately 298-fold increase in resistance was recorded after 10 generations, as evidenced by the resistance ratio (RR50). The progress and effect of the selection pressure in the adult stage was monitored with the World Health Organisation (WHO) diagnostic test. The mortality, as observed using the WHO diagnostic test, declined significantly from the F5 generation (85%) onwards and the highest rate of survival (65%) was observed in the F10 generation.

Larval recovery of Toxocara cati in experimentally infected Rattus norvegicus and analysis of the rat as potential reservoir for this ascarid

Toxocara cati is a common feline parasite transmitted by the ingestion of embryonated eggs, by the transmammary route or by predation of paratenic hosts harbouring third-stage larvae in their bodies. In the present study, the larval distribution of T. cati in tissues and organs of Rattus norvegicus experimentally infected with 300 embryonated eggs was analysed. Third-stage larvae were recovered from livers, lungs, kidneys, eyes, brains and carcasses of infected rats, following tissue digestion with HCl 0.5% for 24 h at 37°C. Some differences from the known larval distribution of Toxocara canisin the same rodent species were found.

Y-90 Ibritumomab Tiuxetan (Zevalin (R)) Consolidation of First Remission In Advanced Stage Follicular Non Hodgkin's Lymphoma Updated Results After a Median Follow up of 662 Months From the International, Randomized, Phase III First Line Indolent Trial (FIT) In 414 Patients

The FIT trial was conducted to evaluate the safety and efficacy of 90Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan (0.4 mCi/kg; maximum dose 32 mCi) when used as consolidation of first complete or partial remission in patients with previously untreated, advanced-stage follicular lymphoma (FL). Patients were randomly assigned to either 90Y-ibritumomab treatment (n = 207) or observation (n = 202) within 3 months (mo) of completing initial induction therapy (chemotherapy only: 86%; rituximab in combination with chemotherapy: 14%). Response status prior to randomization did not differ between the groups: 52% complete response (CR)/CR unconfirmed (CRu) to induction therapy and 48% partial response (PR) in the 90Y-ibritumomab arm vs 53% CR/CRu and 44% PR in the control arm. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS) of the intent-to-treat (ITT) population. Results from the first extended follow-up after a median of 3.5 years revealed a significant improvement in PFS from the time of randomization with 90Y-ibritumomab consolidation compared with control (36.5 vs 13.3 mo, respectively; P < 0.0001; Morschhauser et al. JCO. 2008; 26:5156-5164). Here we report a median follow-up of 66.2 mo (5.5 years). Five-year PFS was 47% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 29% in the control group (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.51, 95% CI 0.39-0.65; P < 0.0001). Median PFS in the 90Y-ibritumomab group was 49 mo vs 14 mo in the control group. In patients achieving a CR/CRu after induction, 5-year PFS was 57% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group, and the median had not yet been reached at 92 months, compared with a 43% 5-year PFS in the control group and a median of 31 mo (HR = 0.61, 95% CI 0.42-0.89). For patients in PR after induction, the 5-year PFS was 38% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group with a median PFS of 30 mo vs 14% in the control group with a median PFS of 6 mo (HR = 0.38, 95% CI 0.27-0.53). Patients who had received rituximab as part of induction treatment had a 5-year PFS of 64% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 48% in the control group (HR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.30-1.47). For all patients, time to next treatment (as calculated from the date of randomization) differed significantly between both groups; median not reached at 99 mo in the 90Y-ibritumomab group vs 35 mo in the control group (P < 0.0001). The majority of patients received rituximab-containing regimens when treated after progression (63/82 [77%] in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 102/122 [84%] in the control group). Overall response rate to second-line treatment was 79% in the 90Y-ibritumomab group (57% CR/CRu and 22% PR) vs 78% in the control arm (59% CR/CRu, 19% PR). Five-year overall survival was not significantly different between the groups; 93% and 89% in the 90Y-ibritumomab and control groups, respectively (P = 0.561). To date, 40 patients have died; 18 in the 90Y-ibritumomab group and 22 in the control group. Secondary malignancies were diagnosed in 16 patients in the 90Y-ibritumomab arm vs 9 patients in the control arm (P = 0.19). There were 6 (3%) cases of myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS)/acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) in the 90Y-ibritumomab arm vs 1 MDS in the control arm (P = 0.063). In conclusion, this extended follow-up of the FIT trial confirms the benefit of 90Y-ibritumomab consolidation with a nearly 3 year advantage in median PFS. A significant 5-year PFS improvement was confirmed for patients with a CR/CRu or a PR after induction. Effective rescue treatment with rituximab-containing regimens may explain the observed no difference in overall survival between both patient groups who were - for the greater part - rituximab-naïve.

Faecal examination and PCR to detect Strongyloides venezuelensis in experimentally infected Lewis rats

More sensitive methodologies are necessary to improve strongyloidiasis diagnosis. This study compared the sensitivities of the McMaster modified technique and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays, both performed in faecal samples. Lewis rats were subcutaneously infected with 4,000, 400 or 40 infective third-stage larvae, considered as high, moderate or low infection, respectively. Seven days later, they were euthanized to count adult nematodes recovered from the small intestine. Stool samples were used to count the number of eggs per gram (EPG) of faeces and to detect parasite DNA by PCR performed with a species and a genus primer pair. The sensitivity of these assays depended upon parasite burden and the primer specificity. All assays presented 100% sensitivity at the highest parasite load. In the moderate infection, EPG and PCR with the genus primer maintained 100% specificity, whereas PCR sensitivity with the species primer decreased to 77.7%. In low infection, the sensitivity was 60% for EPG, 0% for PCR with the species primer and 90% for PCR done with the genus primer. Together, these results suggest that PCR with a genus primer can be a very sensitive methodology to detect Strongyloides venezuelensisin faeces of Lewis rats infected with very low parasite burden.

Frecuencia de la cesárea en Andalucía: relación con factores sociales, clínicos y de los servicios sanitarios (2007-2009).

BACKGROUND Increasing trend and geographical variations in the use of caesarean section suggest the influence of non-clinical factors. The objective was to describe the use of caesarean section in the Andalusian region in Spain by exploring the role of social, clinical, and health services variables. METHODS A cross-sectional study was carried out using vital statistics. It involves all births occurred in Andalusia during the period of 2007-2009. The dependent variable was the use of caesarean section and the set of covariates were classified into three groups: those with a clinical meaning, those related to the health services organization, and those with a social significance. Multivariate logistic regressions were used. RESULTS In the data set of 293,558 births, the prevalence of caesarean delivery was 24.8%. The multivariate analysis highlights the labour complications as the clinical variable with the highest odds ratio (OR=19.36). Regarding the health services variables, the odds of experiencing a caesarean delivery were 55% higher on weekdays than on weekends. Cádiz was the province with the highest OR for caesarean section (comparison between Cádiz and Almería: OR=1,21) where the ratio between births in public and private hospitals was 3.7. The frequency of caesarean section was 34% higher in women with third level education than those with no education. CONCLUSIONS Labour complication is the most influential variable for caesarean section. Caesarean birth rate is above the accepted standards for all social classes and increases with educational level. Inter-provincial differences reflect different patterns with regard to the use of private medicine.