An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the health sector in the Caribbean

Climate change affects the fundamental bases of good human health, which are clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food, and secure shelter. Climate change is known to impact health through three climate dimensions: extreme heat, natural disasters, and infections and diseases. The temporal and spatial climatic changes that will affect the biology and ecology of vectors and intermediate hosts are likely to increase the risks of disease transmission. The greatest effect of climate change on disease transmission is likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission typically occurs. Caribbean countries are marked by unique geographical and geological features. When combined with their physical, infrastructural development, these features make them relatively more prone to negative impacts from changes in climatic conditions. The increased variability of climate associated with slow-moving tropical depressions has implications for water quality through flooding as well as hurricanes. Caribbean countries often have problems with water and sanitation. These problems are exacerbated whenever there is excess rainfall, or no rainfall. The current report aims to prepare the Caribbean to respond better to the anticipated impact of climate change on the health sector, while fostering a subregional Caribbean approach to reducing carbon emissions by 2050. It provides a major advance on the analytical and contextual issues surrounding the impact of climate change on health in the Caribbean by focusing on the vector-borne and waterborne diseases that are anticipated to be impacted directly by climate change. The ultimate goal is to quantify both the direct and indirect costs associated with each disease, and to present adaptation strategies that can address these health concerns effectively to benefit the populations of the Caribbean.

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the water sector in the Caribbean

The Caribbean is not homogenous with regard to water resources. The Caribbean climate can be characterized as tropical rainy, with two well-defined seasons, one, rainy, and another, less rainy: these characteristics have specificities according to the geographical location of each country. The rainy, tropical character of the Caribbean climate may suggest that there are enough water resources to satisfy life requirements. Notwithstanding, the availability and distribution of water depends on geological and geographical factors that—given the insular character and characteristics of each country—make water resources both vulnerable and limited.

The impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

The main aim of this study is to estimate the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A typical tourism demand function, with tourist arrivals as the dependent variable, is used in the analysis. To establish the baseline, the period under analysis is 1989-2007 and the independent variables are destination country GDP per capita and consumer price index, source country GDP, oil prices to proxy transportation costs between source and destination countries. At this preliminary stage the climate variables are used separately to augment the tourism demand function to establish a relationship, if any, among the variables. Various econometric models (single OLS models for each country, pooled regression, GMM estimation and random effects panel models) were considered in an attempt to find the best way to model the data. The best fit for the data (1989-2007) is the random effects panel data model augmented by both climate variables, i.e. temperature and precipitation. Projections of all variables in the model for the 2008-2100 period were done using forecasting techniques. Projections for the climate variables were undertaken by INSMET. The cost of climate change to the tourism sector was estimated under three scenarios: A2, B2 and BAU (the mid-point of the A2 and B2 scenarios). The estimated costs to tourism for the Caribbean subregion under the three scenarios are all very high and ranges from US$43.9 billion under the B2 scenario to US$46.3 billion under the BAU scenario.

An assessment of global economic models for climate change

The project comprises three phases of which Phase I would be implemented over the period September to December 2008. The major objectives of Phase I are, firstly, to establish the scope and feasibility of carrying out a study on the costs/benefits of taking action on climate change adaptation and cost effectiveness of mitigation in the Caribbean compared to a “business as usual” scenario, and secondly, to support initial actions to alert policymakers and key influencing constituencies to the urgency of this challenge.

Policy Brief: an assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the Caribbean

Caribbean policymakers are faced with special challenges from climate change and these are related to the uncertainties inherent in future climate projections and the complex linkages among climate change, physical and biological systems and socioeconomic sectors. The impacts of climate change threaten development in the Caribbean and may well erode previous gains in development as evidenced by the increased incidence of climate migrants internationally. This brief which is based on a recent study conducted by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (LC/CAR/L.395)1 provides a synthesis of the assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the Caribbean which were undertaken. It provides Caribbean policymakers with cutting-edge information on the region’s vulnerability and encourages the development of adaptation strategies informed by both local experience and expert knowledge. It proceeds from an acknowledgement that the unique combination of natural resources, ecosystems, economic activities, and human population settlements of the Caribbean will not be immune to the impacts of climate change, and local communities, countries and the subregion as a whole need to plan for, and adapt to, these effects. Climate and extreme weather hazards related to the coastal and marine sector encompass the distinct but related factors of sea level rise, increasing coastal water temperatures, tropical storms and hurricanes. Potential vulnerabilities for coastal zones include increased shoreline erosion leading to alteration of the coastline, loss of coastal wetlands, and changes in the abundance and diversity of fish and other marine populations. The study examines four key themes in the analysis: climate, vulnerability, economic and social costs associated with climate change impacts, and adaptive measures.

The economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: Paradoxes and challenges. Overview for 2014

Foreword by Alicia Bárcena.