Winter and Summer Northern Hemisphere blocking in CMIP5 models

The frequencies of atmospheric blocking in both winter and summer and the changes in them from the 20th to the 21st centuries as simulated in twelve CMIP5 models is analysed. The RCP 8.5 high emission scenario runs are used to represent the 21st century. The analysis is based on the wave-breaking methodology of Pelly and Hoskins (2003a). It differs from the Tibaldi and Molteni (1990) index in viewing equatorward cut-off lows and poleward blocking highs in equal manner as indicating a disruption to the westerlies. 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional diagnostics are applied to identify blocking of the mid-latitude storm-track and also at higher latitudes. Winter blocking frequency is found to be generally underestimated. The models give a decrease in the European blocking maximum in the 21st century, consistent with the results in other studies. There is a mean 21st century winter poleward shift of high- latitude blocking, but little agreement between the models on the details. In summer, Eurasian blocking is also underestimated in the models, whereas it is now too large over the high-latitude ocean basins. A decrease in European blocking frequency in the 21st century model runs is again found. However in summer there is a clear eastward shift of blocking over Eastern Europe and Western Russia, in a region close to the blocking that dominated the Russian summer of 2010. While summer blocking decreases in general, the poleward shift of the storm track into the region of frequent high latitude blocking may mean that the incidence of storms being obstructed by blocks may actually increase.

Using Delboeuf's illusion to improve point and click performance for older adults

Older computer users often exhibit poorer performance in point and click tasks on a computer than younger adults. This paper reports on the first phase of research that examines whether a visual illusion that makes an object appear to be larger (Delboeuf‟s Illusion), can help to improve point and click performance for older computer users. In this first phase, we look at the effect sizes for different configurations of the Delboeuf illusion. The study finds that the target size is overestimated by 8% for both older and younger adults in one configuration, and 12% for older adults in another configuration. The results will inform the design of a second phase, in which the configurations which demonstrate the largest effects will be investigated using a Fitts‟-style study of pointing performance.

Shoot calcium and magnesium concentrations differ between subtaxa, are highly heritable, and associate with potentially pleiotropic loci in Brassica oleracea

Calcium (Ca) and magnesium (Mg) are the most abundant group II elements in both plants and animals. Genetic variation in shoot Ca and shoot Mg concentration (shoot Ca and Mg) in plants can be exploited to biofortify food crops and thereby increase dietary Ca and Mg intake for humans and livestock. We present a comprehensive analysis of within-species genetic variation for shoot Ca and Mg, demonstrating that shoot mineral concentration differs significantly between subtaxa (varietas). We established a structured diversity foundation set of 376 accessions to capture a high proportion of species-wide allelic diversity within domesticated Brassica oleracea, including representation of wild relatives (C genome, 1n = 9) from natural populations. These accessions and 74 modern F-1 hybrid cultivars were grown in glasshouse and field environments. Shoot Ca and Mg varied 2- and 2.3-fold, respectively, and was typically not inversely correlated with shoot biomass, within most subtaxa. The closely related capitata (cabbage) and sabauda (Savoy cabbage) subtaxa consistently had the highest mean shoot Ca and Mg. Shoot Ca and Mg in glasshouse-grown plants was highly correlated with data from the field. To understand and dissect the genetic basis of variation in shoot Ca and Mg, we studied homozygous lines from a segregating B. oleracea mapping population. Shoot Ca and Mg was highly heritable (up to 40). Quantitative trait loci (QTL) for shoot Ca and Mg were detected on chromosomes C2, C6, C7, C8, and, in particular, C9, where QTL accounted for 14 to 55 of the total genetic variance. The presence of QTL on C9 was substantiated by scoring recurrent backcross substitution lines, derived from the same parents. This also greatly increased the map resolution, with strong evidence that a 4-cM region on C9 influences shoot Ca. This region corresponds to a 0.41-Mb region on Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) chromosome 5 that includes 106 genes. There is also evidence that pleiotropic loci on C8 and C9 affect shoot Ca and Mg. Map-based cloning of these loci will reveal how shoot-level phenotypes relate to Ca 21 and Mg 21 uptake and homeostasis at the molecular level.

Shoot zinc (Zn) concentration varies widely within Brassica oleracea L. and is affected by soil Zn and phosphorus (P) levels

The low availability of zinc (Zn) in soils and crops affects dietary Zn intake worldwide. This study sought to determine if the natural genetic variation in shoot Zn concentrations (Zn(shoot)) is sufficient to pursue a crop improvement breeding strategy in a leafy vegetable crop. The gene-pool of Brassica oleracea L. was sampled using a large (n = 376) diversity foundation set (DFS), representing almost all species-wide common allelic variation, and 74 commercial varieties (mostly F(1)). The DFS genotypes were grown at low and high soil phosphorus (P) levels under glasshouse and field conditions, and also in a Zn-deficient soil, with or without Zn-fertilisation, in a glasshouse. Despite the large variation in Zn(shoot) among genotypes, environment had a profound effect on Zn(shoot) The heritability of Zn(shoot) was significant, but relatively low, among 90 doubled-haploid (DH) lines from a mapping population. While several quantitative trait loci (QTL) associated with Zn(shoot) occurred on chromosomes C2, C3, C5, C7, and C9, these were generally weak and conditional upon growth conditions. Breeding for Zn(shoot) in B. oleracea is therefore likely to be challenging. Shoot P concentrations increased substantially in all genotypes under low soil Zn conditions. Conversely, only some genotypes had increased Zn(shoot) at low soil P levels. Sufficient natural genetic variation may therefore exist to study some of the interactions between Zn and P nutrition.

Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments

Future climate change projections are often derived from ensembles of simulations from multiple global circulation models using heuristic weighting schemes. This study provides a more rigorous justification for this by introducing a nested family of three simple analysis of variance frameworks. Statistical frameworks are essential in order to quantify the uncertainty associated with the estimate of the mean climate change response. The most general framework yields the “one model, one vote” weighting scheme often used in climate projection. However, a simpler additive framework is found to be preferable when the climate change response is not strongly model dependent. In such situations, the weighted multimodel mean may be interpreted as an estimate of the actual climate response, even in the presence of shared model biases. Statistical significance tests are derived to choose the most appropriate framework for specific multimodel ensemble data. The framework assumptions are explicit and can be checked using simple tests and graphical techniques. The frameworks can be used to test for evidence of nonzero climate response and to construct confidence intervals for the size of the response. The methodology is illustrated by application to North Atlantic storm track data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. Despite large variations in the historical storm tracks, the cyclone frequency climate change response is not found to be model dependent over most of the region. This gives high confidence in the response estimates. Statistically significant decreases in cyclone frequency are found on the flanks of the North Atlantic storm track and in the Mediterranean basin.

Regional climate change mitigation with crops: context and assessment

The intention of this review is to place crop albedo biogeoengineering in the wider picture of climate manipulation. Crop biogeoengineering is considered within the context of the long-term modification of the land surface for agriculture over several thousand years. Biogeoengineering is also critiqued in relation to other geoengineering schemes in terms of mitigation power and adherence to social principles for geoengineering. Although its impact is small and regional, crop biogeoengineering could be a useful and inexpensive component of an ensemble of geoengineering schemes to provide temperature mitigation. The method should not detrimentally affect food security and there may even be positive impacts on crop productivity, although more laboratory and field research is required in this area to understand the underlying mechanisms.

The lifecycle of the North Atlantic storm track

The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet exhibits latitudinal variability, with evidence of three preferred latitudinal locations: south, middle and north. Here we examine the drivers of this variability and the variability of the associated storm track. We investigate the changes in the storm track characteristics for the three jet locations, and propose a mechanism by which enhanced storm track activity, as measured by upstream heat flux, is responsible for cyclical downstream latitudinal shifts in the jet. This mechanism is based on a nonlinear oscillator relationship between the enhanced meridional temperature gradient (and thus baroclinicity) and the meridional high-frequency (periods of shorter than 10 days) eddy heat flux. Such oscillations in baroclinicity and heat flux induce variability in eddy anisotropy which is associated with the changes in the dominant type of wave breaking and a different latitudinal deflection of the jet. Our results suggest that high heat flux is conducive to a northward deflection of the jet, whereas low heat flux is conducive to a more zonal jet. This jet deflecting effect was found to operate most prominently downstream of the storm track maximum, while the storm track and the jet remain anchored at a fixed latitudinal location at the beginning of the storm track. These cyclical changes in storm track characteristics can be viewed as different stages of the storm track’s spatio-temporal lifecycle.

The dynamics and relationships of precipitation, temperature and convection boundaries in the dayside auroral ionosphere

A continuous band of high ion temperature, which persisted for about 8 h and zigzagged north-south across more than five degrees in latitude in the dayside (07:00– 15:00MLT) auroral ionosphere, was observed by the EISCAT VHF radar on 23 November 1999. Latitudinal gradients in the temperature of the F-region electron and ion gases (Te and Ti , respectively) have been compared with concurrent observations of particle precipitation and field-perpendicular convection by DMSP satellites, in order to reveal a physical explanation for the persistent band of high Ti , and to test the potential role of Ti and Te gradients as possible markers for the open-closed field line boundary. The north/south movement of the equatorward Ti boundary was found to be consistent with the contraction/expansion of the polar cap due to an unbalanced dayside and nightside reconnection. Sporadic intensifications in Ti , recurring on _10-min time scales, indicate that frictional heating was modulated by time-varying reconnection, and the band of high Ti was located on open flux. However, the equatorward Ti boundary was not found to be a close proxy of the open-closed boundary. The closest definable proxy of the open-closed boundary is the magnetosheath electron edge observed by DMSP. Although Te appears to be sensitive to magnetosheath electron fluxes, it is not found to be a suitable parameter for routine tracking of the open-closed boundary, as it involves case dependent analysis of the thermal balance. Finally, we have documented a region of newly-opened sunward convecting flux. This region is situated between the convection reversal boundary and the magnetosheath electron edge defining the openclosed boundary. This is consistent with a delay of several minutes between the arrival of the first (super-Alfv´enic) magnetosheath electrons and the response in the ionospheric convection, conveyed to the ionosphere by the interior Alfv´en wave. It represents a candidate footprint of the low-latitude boundary mixing layer on sunward convecting open flux

Ionospheric convection response to slow, strong variations in a northward interplanetary magnetic field: A case study for January 14, 1988

We analyze ionospheric convection patterns over the polar regions during the passage of an interplanetary magnetic cloud on January 14, 1988, when the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) rotated slowly in direction and had a large amplitude. Using the assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics (AMIE) procedure, we combine simultaneous observations of ionospheric drifts and magnetic perturbations from many different instruments into consistent patterns of high-latitude electrodynamics, focusing on the period of northward IMF. By combining satellite data with ground-based observations, we have generated one of the most comprehensive data sets yet assembled and used it to produce convection maps for both hemispheres. We present evidence that a lobe convection cell was embedded within normal merging convection during a period when the IMF By and Bz components were large and positive. As the IMF became predominantly northward, a strong reversed convection pattern (afternoon-to-morning potential drop of around 100 kV) appeared in the southern (summer) polar cap, while convection in the northern (winter) hemisphere became weak and disordered with a dawn-to-dusk potential drop of the order of 30 kV. These patterns persisted for about 3 hours, until the IMF rotated significantly toward the west. We interpret this behavior in terms of a recently proposed merging model for northward IMF under solstice conditions, for which lobe field lines from the hemisphere tilted toward the Sun (summer hemisphere) drape over the dayside magnetosphere, producing reverse convection in the summer hemisphere and impeding direct contact between the solar wind and field lines connected to the winter polar cap. The positive IMF Bx component present at this time could have contributed to the observed hemispheric asymmetry. Reverse convection in the summer hemisphere broke down rapidly after the ratio |By/Bz| exceeded unity, while convection in the winter hemisphere strengthened. A dominant dawn-to-dusk potential drop was established in both hemispheres when the magnitude of By exceeded that of Bz, with potential drops of the order of 100 kV, even while Bz remained northward. The later transition to southward Bz produced a gradual intensification of the convection, but a greater qualitative change occurred at the transition through |By/Bz| = 1 than at the transition through Bz = 0. The various convection patterns we derive under northward IMF conditions illustrate all possibilities previously discussed in the literature: nearly single-cell and multicell, distorted and symmetric, ordered and unordered, and sunward and antisunward.

Dynamic auroral structure in the vicinity of the polar cusp - multipoint observations during southward and northward IMF

The low- and high-latitude boundary layers of the earth's magnetosphere [low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) and mantle] play important roles in transferring momentum and energy from the solar wind to the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. Particle precipitation, field-aligned current, auroral emission, ionospheric ion drift and ground magnetic perturbations are among the low-altitude parameters that show signatures of various plasma processes in the LLBL and the magnetopause current layer. Magnetic merging events, Kelvin-Helmholtz waves, and pressure pulses excited by the variable solar wind/magnetosheath plasma are examples of boundary phenomena that may be coupled to the ionosphere via field-aligned currents. Optical auroral observation, by photometry and all-sky TV cameras, is a unique technique for investigating the spatial and temporal structure of the electron precipitation associated with such phenomena. However, the distinction between the different boundary layer plasma populations cannot in general be unambiguously determined by optics alone. Additional information, such as satellite observations of particle boundaries and field-aligned currents, is needed in order to identify the plasma source(s) and the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling mode(s). Two categories of auroral activity/structure in the vicinity of the polar cusp are discussed in this paper, based on combined ground and satellite data. In one case, the quasi-periodic sequence of auroral events at the polar cap boundary involves accelerated electrons (< 1 keV) moving poleward (< 1 km s-1) and azimuthally along the persistent cusp/cleft arc poleward boundary with velocities (< 4 km s-1), comparable to the local ionospheric ion drift during periods of southward IMF. A critical question is whether or not the optical events signify a corresponding plasma flow across the open/closed field line boundary in such cases. Near-simultaneous observations of magnetopause flux transfer events (FTEs) and such optical/ion drift events are reported. The reverse pattern of motion of discrete auroral forms is observed during positive interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) B(Z), i.e. equatorward motion into the cusp/cleft background arc from the poleward edge. Combined satellite and ground-based information for the latter cases indicate a source mechanism, poleward of the cusp at the high-latitude magnetopause or plasma mantle, giving rise to strong momentum transfer and electron precipitation structures within a approximately 200 km-wide latitudinal zone at the cusp/cleft poleward boundary. The striking similarities of auroral electrodynamics in the cleft/mantle region during northward and southward IMF indicate that a qualitatively similar solar wind-magnetosphere coupling mode is operating. It is suggested that, in both cases, the discrete auroral forms represent temporal/spatial structure of larger-scale convection over the polar magnetosphere.

Massive Open Online Courses and sustainability

Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have become very popular among learners millions of users from around the world registered with leading platforms. There are hundreds of universities (and other organizations) offering MOOCs. However, sustainability of MOOCs is a pressing concern as MOOCs incur up front creation costs, maintenance costs to keep content relevant and on-going support costs to provide facilitation while a course is being run. At present, charging a fee for certification (for example Coursera Signature Track and FutureLearn Statement of Completion) seems a popular business model. In this paper, the authors discuss other possible business models and their pros and cons. Some business models discussed here are: Freemium model – providing content freely but charging for premium services such as course support, tutoring and proctored exams. Sponsorships – courses can be created in collaboration with industry where industry sponsorships are used to cover the costs of course production and offering. For example Teaching Computing course was offered by the University of East Anglia on the FutureLearn platform with the sponsorship from British Telecom while the UK Government sponsored the course Introduction to Cyber Security offered by the Open University on FutureLearn. Initiatives and Grants – The government, EU commission or corporations could commission the creation of courses through grants and initiatives according to the skills gap identified for the economy. For example, the UK Government’s National Cyber Security Programme has supported a course on Cyber Security. Similar initiatives could also provide funding to support relevant course development and offering. Donations – Free software, Wikipedia and early OER initiatives such as the MIT OpenCourseware accept donations from the public and this could well be used as a business model where learners could contribute (if they wish) to the maintenance and facilitation of a course. Merchandise – selling merchandise could also bring revenue to MOOCs. As many participants do not seek formal recognition (European Commission, 2014) for their completion of a MOOC, merchandise that presents their achievement in a playful way could well be attractive for them. Sale of supplementary material –supplementary course material in the form of an online or physical book or similar could be sold with the revenue being reinvested in the course delivery. Selective advertising – courses could have advertisements relevant to learners Data sharing – though a controversial topic, sharing learner data with relevant employers or similar could be another revenue model for MOOCs. Follow on events – the courses could lead to follow on summer schools, courses or other real-life or online events that are paid-for in which case a percentage of the revenue could be passed on to the MOOC for its upkeep. Though these models are all possible ways of generating revenue for MOOCs, some are more controversial and sensitive than others. Nevertheless unless appropriate business models are identified the sustainability of MOOCs would be problematic.

The current status of anticoagulant resistance in rats and mice in the UK

Introduction: Resistance to anticoagulants in Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) and house mice (Mus domesticus) has been studied in the UK since the early 1960s. In no other country in the world is our understanding of resistance phenomena so extensive and profound. Almost every aspect of resistance in the key rodent target species has been examined in laboratory and field trials and results obtained by independent researchers have been published. It is the principal purpose of this document to present a short synopsis of this information. More recently, however, the development of genetical techniques has provided a definitive means of detection of resistant genotypes among pest rodent populations. Preliminary information from a number of such surveys will also be presented. Resistance in Norway rats: A total of nine different anticoagulant resistance mutations (single nucleotide polymorphisms or SNPs) are found among Norway rats in the UK. In no other country worldwide are present so many different forms of Norway rat resistance. Among these nine SNPs, five are known to confer on rats that carry them a significant degree of resistance to anticoagulant rodenticides. These mutations are: L128Q, Y139S, L120Q, Y139C and Y139F. The latter three mutations confer, to varying degrees, practical resistance to bromadiolone and difenacoum, the two second-generation anticoagulants in predominant use in the UK. It is the recommendation of RRAG that bromadiolone and difenacoum should not be used against rats carrying the L120Q, Y139C and Y139F mutations because this will promote the spread of resistance and jeopardise the long-term efficacy of anticoagulants. Brodifacoum, flocoumafen and difethialone are effective against these three genotypes but cannot presently be used because of the regulatory restriction that they can only be applied against rats that are living and feeding predominantly indoors. Our understanding of the geographical distribution of Norway rat resistance in incomplete but is rapidly increasing. In particular, the mapping of the focus of L120Q Norway rat resistance in central-southern England by DNA sequencing is well advanced. We now know that rats carrying this resistance mutation are present across a large part of the counties of Hampshire, Berkshire and Wiltshire, and the resistance spreads into Avon, Oxfordshire and Surrey. It is also found, perhaps as outlier foci, in south-west Scotland and East Sussex. L120Q is currently the most severe form of anticoagulant resistance found in Norway rats and is prevalent over a considerable part of central-southern England. A second form of advanced Norway rat resistance is conferred by the Y139C mutation. This is noteworthy because it occurs in at least four different foci that are widely geographically dispersed, namely in Dumfries and Galloway, Gloucestershire, Yorkshire and Norfolk. Once again, bromadiolone and difenacoum are not recommended for use against rats carrying this genotype and a concern of RRAG is that continued applications of resisted active substances may result in Y139C becoming more or less ubiquitous across much of the UK. Another type of advanced resistance, the Y139F mutation, is present in Kent and Sussex. This means that Norway rats, carrying some degree of resistance to bromadiolone and difenacoum, are now found from the south coast of Kent, west into the city of Bristol, to Yorkshire in the north-east and to the south-west of Scotland. This difficult situation can only deteriorate further where these three genotypes exist and resisted anticoagulants are predominantly used against them. Resistance in house mice: House mouse is not so well understood but the presence in the UK of two resistant genotypes, L128S and Y139C, is confirmed. House mice are naturally tolerant to anticoagulants and such is the nature of this tolerance, and the presence of genetical resistance, that house mice resistant to the first-generation anticoagulants are considered to be widespread in the UK. Consequently, baits containing warfarin, sodium warfarin, chlorophacinone and coumatetralyl are not approved for use against mice. This regulatory position is endorsed by RRAG. Baits containing brodifacoum, flocoumafen and difethialone are effective against house mice and may be applied in practice because house mouse infestations are predominantly indoors. There are some reports of resistance among mice in some areas to the second-generation anticoagulant bromadiolone, while difenacoum remains largely efficacious. Alternatives to anticoagulants: The use of habitat manipulation, that is the removal of harbourage, denial of the availability of food and the prevention of ingress to structures, is an essential component of sustainable rodent pest management. All are of importance in the management of resistant rodents and have the advantage of not selecting for resistant genotypes. The use of these techniques may be particularly valuable in preventing the build-up of rat infestations. However, none can be used to remove any sizeable extant rat infestation and for practical reasons their use against house mice is problematic. Few alternative chemical interventions are available in the European Union because of the removal from the market of zinc phosphide, calciferol and bromethalin. Our virtual complete reliance on the use of anticoagulants for the chemical control of rodents in the UK, and more widely in the EU, calls for improved schemes for resistance management. Of course, these might involve the use of alternatives to anticoagulant rodenticides. Also important is an increasing knowledge of the distribution of resistance mutations in rats and mice and the use of only fully effective anticoagulants against them.

Leaf trapping and retention of particles by holm oak and other common tree species in Mediterranean urban environments

Holm oak (Quercus ilex), a widespread urban street tree in the Mediterranean region, is widely used as biomonitor of persistent atmospheric pollutants, especially particulate-bound metals. By using lab- and field-based experimental approaches, we compared the leaf-level capacity for particles’ capture and retention between Q. ilex and other common Mediterranean urban trees: Quercus cerris, Platanus × hispanica, Tilia cordata and Olea europaea. All applied methods were effective in quantifying particulate capture and retention, although not univocal in ranking species performances. Distinctive morphological features of leaves led to differences in species’ ability to trap and retain particles of different size classes and to accumulate metals after exposure to traffic in an urban street. Overall, P. × hispanica and T. cordata showed the largest capture potential per unit leaf area for most model particles (Na+ and powder particles), and street-level Cu and Pb, while Q. ilex acted intermediately. After wash-off experiments, P. × hispanica leaves had the greatest retention capacity among the tested species and O. europaea the lowest. We concluded that the Platanus planting could be considered in Mediterranean urban environments due to its efficiency in accumulating and retaining airborne particulates; however, with atmospheric pollution being typically higher in winter, the evergreen Q. ilex represents a better year-round choice to mitigate the impact of airborne particulate pollutants.

Impact of a Fram Strait cyclone on ice edge, drift, divergence, and concentration: Possibilities and limits of an observational analysis

This study aims at the determination of a Fram Strait cyclone track and of the cyclone’s impact on ice edge, drift, divergence, and concentration. A 24 h period on 13–14 March 2002 framed by two RADARSAT images is analyzed. Data are included from autonomous ice buoys, a research vessel, Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and QuikSCAT satellite, and the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. During this 24 h period the cyclone moved northward along the western ice edge in the Fram Strait, crossed the northern ice edge, made a left-turn loop with 150 km diameter over the sea ice, and returned to the northern ice edge. The ECMWF analysis places the cyclone track 100 km too far west over the sea ice, a deviation which is too large for representative sea ice simulations. On the east side of the northward moving cyclone, the ice edge was pushed northward by 55 km because of strong winds. On the rear side, the ice edge advanced toward the open water but by a smaller distance because of weaker winds there. The ice drift pattern as calculated from the ice buoys and the two RADARSAT images is cyclonically curved around the center of the cyclone loop. Ice drift divergence shows a spatial pattern with divergence in the loop center and a zone of convergence around. Ice concentration changes as retrieved from SSM/I data follow the divergence pattern such that sea ice concentration increased in areas of divergence and decreased in areas of convergence.