Scarring Effects of Early Unemployment among Young Workers with Vocational Credentials in Switzerland

Background Using a unique, longitudinal survey that follows school-to-work transitions of pupils who participated in PISA 2000, this paper investigates adverse consequences, so-called scarring effects, of early unemployment among young adults who acquired vocational credentials in Switzerland. Methods As social, individual and contextual factors influence both early unemployment and later employment outcomes, taking into account endogeneity is of utmost importance when investigating scarring effects. In this regard we make use of nearest-neighbour propensity score matching and set up statistical control groups. Results Our results suggest that young adults who hold vocational credentials are more likely to be neither in employment nor in education, and to earn less and be more dissatisfied with their career progress later in work life than they would be, had they not experienced early unemployment. Conclusions We conclude that unemployment scarring also affects young adults with vocational credentials in a liberal labour market setting that otherwise allows for smooth school-to-work transitions. This finding runs counter to expectations that standardised vocational degrees, a liberal and flexible labour market structure, and predominantly short unemployment spells protect young skilled workers from scarring in case they happen to experience early career instability.

“No fim não vai ficar nada”: exploração dos recursos florestais em Cabo Delgado relatório do trabalho de campo em Namiune, Nkonga e 5º Congresso: Relatório do trabalho de campo nas concessões COMADEL e a FMJ, Cabo Delgado, Novembro de 2010

This report focuses on forest product users in the COMADEL and FMJ forest concessions, Cabo Delgado, as well as the effects of their combined strategies and activities on sustainable use of natural resources and sustainable socio-economic development of the region. The aim is to contribute to understanding the effects of these strategies and activities on forest regeneration, ecosystem services and on resource sustainability. The study examines the role played by the Committees of Natural Resources in forest exploitation. Data obtained from interviews and observations were used to complement and update a variety of existing data from oral and written sources dealing with forest regeneration in Cabo Delgado. These existing materials originate from previous studies conducted in the context of the ESAPP project that started more than two years ago. They include results from Learning for Sustainability workshops (LforS, http://www.cde.unibe.ch/Pages/Project/2/14/Learningfor- Sustainability-Extension-Approach.aspx), as well as field reports, academic studies, management plans used by concessionaires, and others. The interviews and observations took place more or less continuously from the beginning of this phase of the project in 2008. Interviews were systematically conducted with owners of concessions operating in the region, employees of logging companies, residents of villages within the existing concessions, government officials and others. It was not possible to collect information directly from poachers in part due to the illegal nature of their work. Information on these activities was obtained indirectly through members of the Committees of Natural Resources, the concessionaire, and its workers, as well as by observing the traces of extraction – traps, bones and parts of slaughtered animals, tree stumps, material ready for transportation, etc. The main results indicate that extraction by the logging company MITI Ltd. and others acting in the region, by poachers and by other actors – e.g. sawyers using manual saws – put a lot of pressure on marketable species, particularly Millettia stuhlmannii, Afzelia quanzensis and Swartzia madagascariensis. Natural regeneration of forests in northern Cabo Delgado is being compromised by the combination of various extracting activities and uncontrolled fires. MITI Ltd. continued the pattern of exploitation of forest resources that was characteristic of companies operating in the region earlier, such as COMADEL. MITI Ltd. failed to implement the broad range of development and conservation activities encouraged by the new legislation on forest concessions that was created to promote sustainable use of resources.

“Se querem que façamos algo pela floresta tem que nos pagar”: As lógicas da participação dos camponeses nos Comités de Gestão dos Recursos Naturais nos distritos de Palma e Mocimboa da Praia em 2009: Relatório do trabalho de campo em Namiune, Nkonga e 5º Congresso, Maputo, Dezembro de 2010

Our study considers the natural resources of the Miombo forests in Cabo Delgado from a broad ecosystems perspective. Thus, our view goes beyond the disciplinary approaches of forestry, agronomy, biology or zoology, and also of the social sciences, namely anthropology, history, sociology, political science or economics. The present study aims to establish a dialogue and create synergies between Miti Ltd. – the logging company and owner of the forest concessions – as well as government and state structures at the various levels and the communities – through the Committees on Natural Resources – in order to promote the sustainable use of resources and ecosystems. The research methodology we used can broadly be described as moderated transdisciplinary interaction for action-research based on the approach known as Learning for Sustainability (LforS, http://www.cde.unibe.ch/Pages/Project/2/14/Learning-for-Sustainability-Extension-Approach.aspx). The research methods used include: LforS seminars; field work; forests observations focusing, among others, on ecosystems, trees, wildlife, and burned areas; visits to farms; and interviews. We conducted both collective interviews and individual interviews, including with key informants. The main results indicate that members of the Committee on Natural Resources have a dual attitude: their statements defend the paradigm of sustainable use of natural resources as well as their own immediate monetary gain. They are willing to apply the values, concepts and theories of sustainable development that underpin the establishment of Committees on Natural Resources if they are paid for their work or if they can derive direct benefits from it, i.e. if they can earn a salary or allowance. If this does not happen, however, they are willing to allow actors to engage in illegal hunting or logging activities. This dual attitude also exists in relation to forestry operators. If the concession workers pay the committee members in cash or provide goods, they can run their business even if they violate the law. Natural forest regeneration in Nkonga and Namiune already shows the impact of such use. Although there are many saplings that could basically ensure continuous regeneration under sustainable management, repeated burning is damaging the young trees, deforming them and killing a great number of them. Campaigns against uncontrolled fires are ineffective because the administrative and political authorities have a dual attitude as well and are also part of the group that uses resources to their own profit and benefit. There are institutional structures within the administration, populations, and communities to perform regulating functions, create and implement rules, punish offenders, and oversee resource use. However, they feel that since they are not paid for performing these functions, they do not have to do so. This attitude shows a lack of awareness, but also indicates a situation where everyone seeks to derive maximum benefits from existing resource use patterns. Anything goes.

Adapting public agricultural extension services to climate change: Insights from Kenya

This paper analyses the adaptiveness of the Public Agricultural Extension Services (PAES) to climate change. Existing literature, interviews and group discussions among PAES actors in larger Makueni district, Kenya, provided the data for the analyses. The findings show that the PAES already have various elements of adaptiveness in its policies, approaches and methods of extension provision. However, the hierarchical structure of the PAES does not augur well for self-organisation at local levels of extension provision, especially under conditions of abrupt change which climate change might trigger. Most importantly, adpativeness presupposes adaptive capacity but the lack of resources in terms of funding for extension, limited mobility of extension officers, the low extension staff/farmer ratio, the aging of extension staff and significant dependence on donor funding limits the adaptiveness of the PAES. Accordingly criteria and indicators were identified in literature with which an initial assessement of the adaptiiveneess of PAES was conducted. However this assessment framework needs to be improved and future steps will integrate more specific inputs from actors in PAES in order to make the framework operational.

Are Shirking and Leisure Substitutable? An Empirical Test of Efficiency Wages Based on Urban Economic Theory

Recent theoretical work has examined the spatial distribution of unemployment using the efficiency wage model as the mechanism by which unemployment arises in the urban economy. This paper extends the standard efficiency wage model in order to allow for behavioral substitution between leisure time at home and effort at work. In equilibrium, residing at a location with a long commute affects the time available for leisure at home and therefore affects the trade-off between effort at work and risk of unemployment. This model implies an empirical relationship between expected commutes and labor market outcomes, which is tested using the Public Use Microdata sample of the 2000 U.S. Decennial Census. The empirical results suggest that efficiency wages operate primarily for blue collar workers, i.e. workers who tend to be in occupations that face higher levels of supervision. For this subset of workers, longer commutes imply higher levels of unemployment and higher wages, which are both consistent with shirking and leisure being substitutable.

"Ripple Effects" and Forecasting Home Prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix

We examine the time-series relationship between housing prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. First, temporal Granger causality tests reveal that Los Angeles housing prices cause housing prices in Las Vegas (directly) and Phoenix (indirectly). In addition, Las Vegas housing prices cause housing prices in Phoenix. Los Angeles housing prices prove exogenous in a temporal sense and Phoenix housing prices do not cause prices in the other two markets. Second, we calculate out-of-sample forecasts in each market, using various vector autoregessive (VAR) and vector error-correction (VEC) models, as well as Bayesian, spatial, and causality versions of these models with various priors. Different specifications provide superior forecasts in the different cities. Finally, we consider the ability of theses time-series models to provide accurate out-of-sample predictions of turning points in housing prices that occurred in 2006:Q4. Recursive forecasts, where the sample is updated each quarter, provide reasonably good forecasts of turning points.

Using Leading Indicators to Forecast US Home Sales in a Bayesian VAR Framework

This paper uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to examine the usefulness of leading indicators in predicting US home sales. The benchmark Bayesian model includes home sales, the price of homes, the mortgage rate, real personal disposable income, and the unemployment rate. We evaluate the forecasting performance of six alternative leading indicators by adding each, in turn, to the benchmark model. Out-of-sample forecast performance over three periods shows that the model that includes building permits authorized consistently produces the most accurate forecasts. Thus, the intention to build in the future provides good information with which to predict home sales. Another finding suggests that leading indicators with longer leads outperform the short-leading indicators.

Implementing the Global Plan of Action on workers' health: Components to protect health care workers

Health care workers are at risk for percutaneous injuries and infection with blood born pathogens due to needle stick injuries with contaminated needles. The most common pathogens transmitted are hepatitis B, and C and HIV/AIDS. According to the WHO Global Plan of Action (GPA) a large gap exist between and within countries with regards to the health status of workers and their exposure to occupational risk. Less than 15% of the world's work forces have access to occupational health services despite the availability of effective interventions that can prevent occupational hazards, or protect and promote health in the workplace. The 2006 World Health Report declared that there is a global crisis in the health care work force. 1 in 400 of the world's health care workers work in Sub-Saharan Africa. 1 in 3 work in the U.S or Canada. The shortage of health care workers is worst in Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. These countries have the highest burden of exposure to contaminated sharps. They rarely, if ever monitor the exposure or health impact of occupational ailments and injuries on workers. Many injuries are unreported. Occupational health services in the developing world are virtually non existent. Many health care workers leave their home countries and go to work in other countries where the working conditions, occupational services included, are better. The inability of countries to provide the necessary numbers of health care workers to provide a high level of health coverage is a threat to national and international public health security. Immunizing health care workers against hepatitis B and providing them PEP, PPE, education and safety training is an essential part of increasing and maintaining the numbers of health care workers in the critical shortage areas. ^

Economic evaluation of latent tuberculosis infection screening among health care workers in Houston

Since interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) were introduced in the 2000's, tuberculin skin testing (TST) and IGRAs have been used in various latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) screening settings. IGRAs are laboratory-based tests and are considered not to be affected by previous Bacille de Calmette et Guérin (BCG) vaccination; however, they are more costly when compared directly with TST, which does not require specimen processing in a laboratory. This study aimed to examine TST and two types of IGRAs, QuantiFERON-TB Gold in Tube (QFT-GIT) and T-SPOT. TB (TSPOT), from an economic viewpoint. Firstly, a systematic literature review was conducted to identify cost related analyses of LTBI screening. Secondly, specific cost information detailing each test's items and labor was collected from an LTBI screening program of health care workers in Houston, and the cost of each test was computed. Thirdly, using the computed cost estimate of each test, cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted to compare TST and IGRAs.^ A literature search showed that a limited number of studies have been conducted, but the IGRA's economic advantages were common among studies. Cost analyses showed that IGRAs were much more costly than TST. The results were consistent with previous studies. In cost-effectiveness analyses, where test cost and consequential TB-related cost were considered, IGRAs showed variable advantages over TST depending on the targeted population. When only non BCG-vaccinated people were considered, TST was the least costly option among the three tests. On the other hand, when only BCG-vaccinated people were considered, IGRAs were less costly options. These results were mostly consistent even with varying assumption parameters.^ IGRAs can be more costly than TST, but their economic disadvantages are alleviated when the target population was BCG-vaccinated. Based on current knowledge, IGRAs may be recommended in a population where the BCG history is mixed. Additional studies are needed to better understand IGRA's reliability among low-incidence and low-risk populations in which background TB prevalence is low.^

Child Welfare Workers’ Perceptions of the Influence of the Organizational Environment on Permanency Decisions for Families

The findings of this study suggest that while child welfare workers are consistently distracted by competing priorities from unexpected events, most are committed, and to understand perspectives is more inclusive and may improve retention rates. Notably, while it is recognized that permanency decisions are not made in an intellectual, legal or clinical vacuum and certain traditional aspects of the bureaucratic structure do not impact decision making, this study advances the body of knowledge on child welfare decision making. Examined in this study are child welfare case workers’ perceptions of the extent to which the organizational environment influences the permanency decisions they make to reunify or terminate parental rights of children placed out-of-home. This study includes a sample of 95 child welfare social workers employed in three public child welfare agencies in the Baltimore and Washington, DC metropolitan area. It used a cross-sectional research design, employing a survey instrument to examine bureaucratic distraction, role conflict, and supervisory adequacy as contextual factors in the organizational environment's influence on permanency outcome decisions. Implications are made for child welfare policy, practice, and research.

An extension of Mohring’s model for land rent distribution

In an early paper Herbert Mohring (J. Poi Et on , 49 (1961)) presented a model for land rent distribution yielding the well-known result that the price of land must fall with the distance from the city center to offset transportation costs. Our paper is an extension of Mohring's model in which we relax some of his drastic simplifying assumptions. This extended model has been incorporated in a method for economic evaluation of city master plans which has been applied to a Swedish city. In this method the interdependence among housing, heating, and transportation, the dura-bility of urban structures, and the uncertainty of future demand are explicitly considered within a cost-benefit approach. Some empirical results from this pilot study concerning land rent distributions are also presented here.

A qualitative exploration of the impact of the economic recession in Spain on working, living and health conditions: reflections based on immigrant workers' experiences

Background: This study aimed to analyse how immigrant workers in Spain experienced changes in their working and employment conditions brought about Spain's economic recession and the impact of these changes on their living conditions and health status. Method: We conducted a grounded theory study. Data were obtained through six focus group discussions with immigrant workers (n = 44) from Colombia, Ecuador and Morocco, and two individual interviews with key informants from Romania living in Spain, selected by theoretical sample. Results: Three categories related to the crisis emerged – previous labour experiences, employment consequences and individual consequences – that show how immigrant workers in Spain (i) understand the change in employment and working conditions conditioned by their experiences in the period prior to the crisis, and (ii) experienced the deterioration in their quality of life and health as consequences of the worsening of employment and working conditions during times of economic recession. Conclusion: The negative impact of the financial crisis on immigrant workers may increase their social vulnerability, potentially leading to the failure of their migratory project and a return to their home countries. Policy makers should take measures to minimize the negative impact of economic crisis on the occupational health of migrant workers in order to strengthen social protection and promote health and well-being.