Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Criminal histories of crash and non-crash involved Queensland speeding offenders: Evidence supporting the idea that we drive as we live

Evidence increasingly suggests that our behaviour on the road mirrors our behaviour across other aspects of our life. The idea that we drive as we live, described by Tillman and Hobbs more than 65 years ago when examining off-road behaviours of taxi drivers (1949), is the focus of the current paper. As part of a larger study examining the impact of penalty changes on a large cohort of Queensland speeding offenders, criminal (lifetime) and crash history (10 year period) data for a sub-sample of 1000 offenders were obtained. Based on the ‘drive as we live’ maxim, it was hypothesised that crash-involved speeding offenders would be more likely to have a criminal history than non-crash involved offenders. Overall, only 30% of speeding offenders had a criminal history. However, crash-involved offenders were significantly more likely to have a criminal history (49.4%) than non-crash involved offenders (28.6%), supporting the hypothesis. Furthermore, those deemed ‘most at fault’ in a crash were the group most likely to have at least one criminal offence (52.2%). When compared to the non-crash involved offenders, those deemed ‘not most at fault’ in a crash were also more likely to have had at least one criminal offence (46.5%). Therefore, when compared to non-crash involved speeding offenders, those offenders involved in a crash were more likely to have been convicted of at least one criminal offence, irrespective of whether they were deemed ‘most at fault’ in that crash. Implications for traffic offender management and policing are discussed.

Defect production due to quenching through a multicritical point

We study the generation of defects when a quantum spin system is quenched through a multicritical point by changing a parameter of the Hamiltonian as t/tau, where tau is the characteristic timescale of quenching. We argue that when a quantum system is quenched across a multicritical point, the density of defects (n) in the final state is not necessarily given by the Kibble-Zurek scaling form n similar to 1/tau(d nu)/((z nu+1)), where d is the spatial dimension, and. and z are respectively the correlation length and dynamical exponent associated with the quantum critical point. We propose a generalized scaling form of the defect density given by n similar to 1/(tau d/(2z2)), where the exponent z(2) determines the behavior of the off-diagonal term of the 2 x 2 Landau-Zener matrix at the multicritical point. This scaling is valid not only at a multicritical point but also at an ordinary critical point.

Evaluation of a Multispectral Camera on a UAV for Agricultural Applications

Australian farmers have used precision agriculture technology for many years with the use of ground – based and satellite systems. However, these systems require the use of vehicles in order to analyse a wide area which can be time consuming and cost ineffective. Also, satellite imagery may not be accurate for analysis. Low cost of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) present an effective method of analysing large plots of agricultural fields. As the UAV can travel over long distances and fly over multiple plots, it allows for more data to be captured by a sampling device such as a multispectral camera and analysed thereafter. This would allow farmers to analyse the health of their crops and thus focus their efforts on certain areas which may need attention. This project evaluates a multispectral camera for use on a UAV for agricultural applications.

Influence of road traffic environment and mobile phone distraction on the speed selection behaviour of young drivers

Travel speed is one of the most critical parameters for road safety; the evidence suggests that increased vehicle speed is associated with higher crash risk and injury severity. Both naturalistic and simulator studies have reported that drivers distracted by a mobile phone select a lower driving speed. Speed decrements have been argued to be a risk compensatory behaviour of distracted drivers. Nonetheless, the extent and circumstances of the speed change among distracted drivers are still not known very well. As such, the primary objective of this study was to investigate patterns of speed variation in relation to contextual factors and distraction. Using the CARRS-Q high-fidelity Advanced Driving Simulator, the speed selection behaviour of 32 drivers aged 18-26 years was examined in two phone conditions: baseline (no phone conversation) and handheld phone operation. The simulator driving route contained five different types of road traffic complexities, including one road section with a horizontal S curve, one horizontal S curve with adjacent traffic, one straight segment of suburban road without traffic, one straight segment of suburban road with traffic interactions, and one road segment in a city environment. Speed deviations from the posted speed limit were analysed using Ward’s Hierarchical Clustering method to identify the effects of road traffic environment and cognitive distraction. The speed deviations along curved road sections formed two different clusters for the two phone conditions, implying that distracted drivers adopt a different strategy for selecting driving speed in a complex driving situation. In particular, distracted drivers selected a lower speed while driving along a horizontal curve. The speed deviation along the city road segment and other straight road segments grouped into a different cluster, and the deviations were not significantly different across phone conditions, suggesting a negligible effect of distraction on speed selection along these road sections. Future research should focus on developing a risk compensation model to explain the relationship between road traffic complexity and distraction.

Stress and Resilience in Combat-Related PTSD: Integration of Psychological Theory and Biological Mechanisms

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a debilitating psychiatric disorder that has a major impact on the ability to function effectively in daily life. PTSD may develop as a response to exposure to an event or events perceived as potentially harmful or life-threatening. It has high prevalence rates in the community, especially among vulnerable groups such as military personnel or those in emergency services. Despite extensive research in this field, the underlying mechanisms of the disorder remain largely unknown. The identification of risk factors for PTSD has posed a particular challenge as there can be delays in onset of the disorder, and most people who are exposed to traumatic events will not meet diagnostic criteria for PTSD. With the advent of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM V), the classification for PTSD has changed from an anxiety disorder into the category of stress- and trauma-related disorders. This has the potential to refocus PTSD research on the nature of stress and the stress response relationship. This review focuses on some of the important findings from psychological and biological research based on early models of stress and resilience. Improving our understanding of PTSD by investigating both genetic and psychological risk and coping factors that influence stress response, as well as their interaction, may provide a basis for more effective and earlier intervention.

Post capture necrosis of the feet caused by soft-catch traps – incidents, cause and prevention.

When recapturing satellite collared wild dogs that had been trapped one month previous in padded foothold traps, we noticed varying degrees of pitting on the pads of their trapped paw. Veterinary advice, based on images taken of the injuries, suggests that the necrosis was caused by vascular compromise. Five of six dingoes we recaptured had varying degrees of necrosis restricted only to the trapped foot and ranging from single 5 mm holes to 25% sections of the toe pads missing or deformed, including loss of nails. The traps used were rubber-padded, two–coiled, Victor Soft Catch #3 traps. The springs are not standard Victor springs but were Beefer springs; these modifications slightly increase trap speed and the jaw pressure on the trapped foot. Despite this modification the spring pressure is still relatively mild in comparison to conventional long spring or four-coiled wild dog traps. The five wild dogs developing necrosis were trapped in November 2006 at 5-6 months of age. Traps were checked each morning so the dogs were unlikely to have been restrained in the trap for more than 12 hours. All dogs exhibited a small degree of paw damage at capture which presented itself as a swollen paw and compression at the capture point. In contrast, eight wild dogs, 7-8 month-old, were captured two months later in February. Upon their release, on advice from a veterinarian, we massaged the trapped foot to get blood flow back in to the foot and applied a bruise treatment (Heparinoid 8.33 mg/ml) to assist restoring blood flow. These animals were subsequently recaptured several months later and showed no signs of necrosis. While post-capture foot injuries are unlikely to be an issue in conventional control programs where the animal is immediately destroyed, caution needs to be used when releasing accidentally captured domestic dogs or research animals captured in rubber-padded traps. We have demonstrated that 7-8 month old dogs can be trapped and released without any evidence of subsequent necrosis following minimal veterinary treatment. We suspect that the rubber padding on traps may increase the tourniquet effect by wrapping around the paw and recommend the evaluation of offset laminated steel jaw traps as an alternative. Offset laminated steel jaw traps have been shown to be relatively humane producing as few foot injuries as rubber-jawed traps.

Ich war nie ein Bernhardiner 1933-1983

The memoir was written in New York between 1981 and 1983. Recollections of the Nazi take-over in Germany and their growing awareness of the upcoming danger. Closure of the cabaret of Friedrich Hollaender, where Lotte and her husband were working, due to its "subversive" political views. After the burning of the "Reichstag" (parliament) Lotte and Victor emigrated to France. Life of emigres in Paris. Lotte found work as a foreign language secretary. Victor worked with a film editor. Extradition from France due to their expired carte d'identite. Move to Amsterdam. In 1935 they went to friends in Spain, where Victor had a position as a film editor. They lived in Barcelona until outbreak of civil war. Escape to London via Prague. Exit visas for the United States. Arrival in New York in 1937. Victor was invited by Friedrich Hollaender to Hollywood, where Lotte joined him a few months later. Work as butler and cook in a family. Lotte found only a few engagements in theater and film. Divorce from her husband and remarriage with actor Wolfgang Zilzer (Paul Andor).

Am Yisroel Chai Commemorative Medal

Obverse: Stylized inscription. Reverse: In the center, burning bush.

Using Big Data to manage safety-related risk in the upstream oil and gas industry: A research agenda

Despite considerable effort and a broad range of new approaches to safety management over the years, the upstream oil & gas industry has been frustrated by the sector’s stubbornly high rate of injuries and fatalities. This short communication points out, however, that the industry may be in a position to make considerable progress by applying “Big Data” analytical tools to the large volumes of safety-related data that have been collected by these organizations. Toward making this case, we examine existing safety-related information management practices in the upstream oil & gas industry, and specifically note that data in this sector often tends to be highly customized, difficult to analyze using conventional quantitative tools, and frequently ignored. We then contend that the application of new Big Data kinds of analytical techniques could potentially reveal patterns and trends that have been hidden or unknown thus far, and argue that these tools could help the upstream oil & gas sector to improve its injury and fatality statistics. Finally, we offer a research agenda toward accelerating the rate at which Big Data and new analytical capabilities could play a material role in helping the industry to improve its health and safety performance.

Wolf family chronicle.

A chronicle of the Wolf family of Schluechtern in Hesse (Germany), reacing back to 1680

Channelled porous TiO2 synthesized with a water-in-oil microemulsion

Porous titanium dioxide synthesized with a bicontinuous surfactant template is a promising method that leads to a high active surface area electrode. The template used is based on a water/isooctane/dioctyl sodium sulfosuccinate salt together with lecithin. Several parameters were varied during the synthesis to understand and optimize channel formation mechanisms. The material is patterned in stacked conical channels, widening towards the centre of the grains. The active surface area increased by 116% when the concentration of alkoxide precursors was decreased and increased by 241% when the template formation temperature was decreased to 10C. Increasing the oil phase viscosity tends to widen the pore aperture, thus decreasing the overall active surface area. Changing the phase proportions alters the microemulsion integrity and disrupts channel formation.

Structurally stabilized mesoporous TiO2 nanofibres for efficient dye-sensitized solar cells

One-dimensional (1D) TiO2 nanostructures are very desirable for providing fascinating properties and features, such as high electron mobility, quantum confinement effects, and high specific surface area. Herein, 1D mesoporous TiO2 nanofibres were prepared using the electrospinning method to verify their potential for use as the photoelectrode of dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs). The 1D mesoporous nanofibres, 300 nm in diameter and 10-20 μm in length, were aggregated from anatase nanoparticles 20-30 nm in size. The employment of these novel 1D mesoporous nanofibres significantly improved dye loading and light scattering of the DSSC photoanode, and resulted in conversion cell efficiency of 8.14%, corresponding to an ∼35% enhancement over the Degussa P25 reference photoanode.

Improved photovoltaic performance of dye-sensitized solar cells with modified self-assembling highly ordered mesoporous TiO 2 photoanodes

Strategies for improving the photovoltaic performance of dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) are proposed by modifying highly transparent and highly ordered multilayer mesoporous TiO 2 photoanodes through nitrogen-doping and top-coating with a light-scattering layer. The mesoporous TiO 2 photoanodes were fabricated by an evaporation-induced self-assembly method. In regard to the modification methods, the light-scattering layer as a top-coating was proved to be superior to nitrogen-doping in enhancing not only the power conversion efficiency but also the fill factor of DSSCs. The optimized bifunctional photoanode consisted of a 30-layer mesoporous TiO 2 thin film (4.15 μm) and a Degussa P25 light-scattering top-layer (4 μm), which gives rise to a ∼200% higher cell efficiency than for unmodified cells and a fill factor of 0.72. These advantages are attributed to its higher dye adsorption, better light scattering, and faster photon-electron transport. Such a photoanode configuration provides an efficient way to enhance the energy conversion efficiency of DSSCs.

Rational design of 3D dendritic TiO2 nanostructures with favorable architectures

Controlling the morphology and size of titanium dioxide (TiO2) nanostructures is crucial to obtain superior photocatalytic, photovoltaic, and electrochemical properties. However, the synthetic techniques for preparing such structures, especially those with complex configurations, still remain a challenge because of the rapid hydrolysis of Ti-containing polymer precursors in aqueous solution. Herein, we report a completely novel approach-three- dimensional (3D) TiO2 nanostructures with favorable dendritic architectures-through a simple hydrothermal synthesis. The size of the 3D TiO2 dendrites and the morphology of the constituent nano-units, in the form of nanorods, nanoribbons, and nanowires, are controlled by adjusting the precursor hydrolysis rate and the surfactant aggregation. These novel configurations of TiO2 nanostructures possess higher surface area and superior electrochemical properties compared to nanoparticles with smooth surfaces. Our findings provide an effective solution for the synthesis of complex TiO2 nano-architectures, which can pave the way to further improve the energy storage and energy conversion efficiency of TiO 2-based devices.