Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

Variations régionales du recours aux soins: quelques problèmes méthodologiques. [Regional variations in health services: various methodological problems].

Many studies show strong variation of health consumption between regions, suggesting that theses variations are related to the uncertainty of medical practice or to other factors related to health services or patients attitude. However the statistical interpretation of these variations is far from easy: apart from usual and specific information bias, there are statistical problems when observing incidence of events like health care consumption: it is in fact a rare event, which is observed within small population, and among regions with unequal number of person. Therefore, most of the variation reported might be well explained by a purely statistical phenomenon. This paper presents some aspects of this variability for three common indicators of variation, and suggest the use of ad hoc simulation to get statistical criteria.

Current epidemiological trends for Chagas disease in Latin America and future challenges in epidemiology, surveillance and health policy

Chagas disease, named after Carlos Chagas, who first described it in 1909, exists only on the American Continent. It is caused by a parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi, which is transmitted to humans by blood-sucking triatomine bugs and via blood transfusion. Chagas disease has two successive phases: acute and chronic. The acute phase lasts six-eight weeks. Several years after entering the chronic phase, 20-35% of infected individuals, depending on the geographical area, will develop irreversible lesions of the autonomous nervous system in the heart, oesophagus and colon, and of the peripheral nervous system. Data on the prevalence and distribution of Chagas disease improved in quality during the 1980s as a result of the demographically representative cross-sectional studies in countries where accurate information was not previously available. A group of experts met in Brasilia in 1979 and devised standard protocols to carry out countrywide prevalence studies on human T. cruzi infection and triatomine house infestation. Thanks to a coordinated multi-country programme in the Southern Cone countries, the transmission of Chagas disease by vectors and via blood transfusion was interrupted in Uruguay in 1997, in Chile in 1999 and in Brazil in 2006; thus, the incidence of new infections by T. cruzi across the South American continent has decreased by 70%. Similar multi-country initiatives have been launched in the Andean countries and in Central America and rapid progress has been reported towards the goal of interrupting the transmission of Chagas disease, as requested by a 1998 Resolution of the World Health Assembly. The cost-benefit analysis of investment in the vector control programme in Brazil indicates that there are savings of US$17 in medical care and disabilities for each dollar spent on prevention, showing that the programme is a health investment with very high return. Many well-known research institutions in Latin America were key elements of a worldwide network of laboratories that carried out basic and applied research supporting the planning and evaluation of national Chagas disease control programmes. The present article reviews the current epidemiological trends for Chagas disease in Latin America and the future challenges in terms of epidemiology, surveillance and health policy.

Chemical products : basic guide on labelling and safety data sheets

Hazardous chemical products have to comply with, amongst others, the provisions of a correct classification of danger, labelling and compilation of the safety data sheets. The aim is to protect people's health and the environment from exposure to hazardous chemicals- especially the health and safety of direct users, professionals or not, and the general public, via environmental exposure. This publication is intended to contribute to the knowledge of the objectives and basic aspects of these legal provisions, and thereby increase their degree of compliance in Andalusia and other european regions. This Guide is directed toward those people who, in the development of their professional activities, are in one way or another in contact with dangerous chemical products.

Chemical products : basic guide on labelling and safety data sheets

Hazardous chemical products have to comply with, amongst others, the provisions of a correct classification of danger, labelling and compilation of the safety data sheets. The aim is to protect people's health and the environment from exposure to hazardous chemicals- especially the health and safety of direct users, professionals or not, and the general public, via environmental exposure. This publication is intended to contribute to the knowledge of the objectives and basic aspects of these legal provisions, and thereby increase their degree of compliance in Andalusia and other european regions. This Guide is directed toward those people who, in the development of their professional activities, are in one way or another in contact with dangerous chemical products.

Schistosomiasis risk mapping in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using a decision tree approach, remote sensing data and sociological indicators

Schistosomiasis mansoni is not just a physical disease, but is related to social and behavioural factors as well. Snails of the Biomphalaria genus are an intermediate host for Schistosoma mansoni and infect humans through water. The objective of this study is to classify the risk of schistosomiasis in the state of Minas Gerais (MG). We focus on socioeconomic and demographic features, basic sanitation features, the presence of accumulated water bodies, dense vegetation in the summer and winter seasons and related terrain characteristics. We draw on the decision tree approach to infection risk modelling and mapping. The model robustness was properly verified. The main variables that were selected by the procedure included the terrain's water accumulation capacity, temperature extremes and the Human Development Index. In addition, the model was used to generate two maps, one that included risk classification for the entire of MG and another that included classification errors. The resulting map was 62.9% accurate.

Changes in health related quality of life 3 months after an acute coronary syndrome

BACKGROUND The aim of the study was to identify the changes in Health Related Quality of Life (HRQL) 3 months after discharge from hospital, in patients who have had an acute coronary episode, and to determine the clinical and sociodemographic variables that explain those changes. METHODS HRQL was assessed in 132 patients while they were admitted to the hospital and at 3 months after discharge, using the SF-36 health questionnaire. To identify the variables associated with the change, multiple linear regression models were constructed for two summary dimensions of the SF-36 (PCS and MCS) taking the change in the score of the dimension as dependent variable. RESULTS There were no significant differences between the patients who completed the monitoring (n = 76) and those who were dropped out. After three months, a significant decrease was observed in the dimensions of physical functioning, general health, vitality, and Physical Summary Component (PCS). The variables revascularisation, age, and the interaction between previous history of coronary heart disease (CHD) and the presence of one or more risk factors explained 16.6% of the decrease in the PCS. The decrease in the PCS was 6.4 points less in the patients who had undergone revascularisation, 0.2 points less for each year of age, and 4.7 points less in the patients who had antecedents of the illness as well as one or more risk factors. CONCLUSION The dimensions most affected at three months after an acute coronary episode were those related to the physical component. Undergoing revascularisation improved the PCS in patients, but in the younger patients and those without personal antecedents or risk factors, the PCS was affected more, perhaps due to greater expectations for recovery in these patients.

Can vouchers deliver? An evaluation of subsidies for maternal health care in Cambodia

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of vouchers for maternity care in public health-care facilities on the utilization of maternal health-care services in Cambodia. METHODS: The study involved data from the 2010 Cambodian Demographic and Health Survey, which covered births between 2005 and 2010. The effect of voucher schemes, first implemented in 2007, on the utilization of maternal health-care services was quantified using a difference-in-differences method that compared changes in utilization in districts with voucher schemes with changes in districts without them. FINDINGS: Overall, voucher schemes were associated with an increase of 10.1 percentage points (pp) in the probability of delivery in a public health-care facility; among women from the poorest 40% of households, the increase was 15.6 pp. Vouchers were responsible for about one fifth of the increase observed in institutional deliveries in districts with schemes. Universal voucher schemes had a larger effect on the probability of delivery in a public facility than schemes targeting the poorest women. Both types of schemes increased the probability of receiving postnatal care, but the increase was significant only for non-poor women. Universal, but not targeted, voucher schemes significantly increased the probability of receiving antenatal care. CONCLUSION: Voucher schemes increased deliveries in health centres and, to a lesser extent, improved antenatal and postnatal care. However, schemes that targeted poorer women did not appear to be efficient since these women were more likely than less poor women to be encouraged to give birth in a public health-care facility, even with universal voucher schemes.

Validation of a new tool to assess health-related quality of life in psoriasis: the PSO-LIFE questionnaire.

BACKGROUND Several questionnaires have been used to measure health related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with psoriasis, few have been adapted for use in Spain; none of them was developed specifically for the Spanish population. The purpose of the study was to validate and assess the sensitivity to change of a new questionnaire to measure HRQOL in patients with psoriasis (PSO-LIFE). METHODS Observational, prospective, multicenter study performed in centers around Spain. Patients with active or inactive psoriasis completed the PSO-LIFE together with other Dermatology Quality of Life Index (DLQI) and Psoriasis Disability Index (PDI). A control group of patients with urticaria or atopic dermatitis was also included. Internal consistency and test-retest reliability of the PSO-LIFE were assessed by calculating Cronbach's alpha and Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC). Validity was assessed by examining factorial structure, the capacity to discriminate between groups, and correlations with other measures. Sensitivity to change was measured using effect sizes. RESULTS The final sample included for analysis consisted of 304 patients and 56 controls. Mean (SD) age of psoriasis patients was 45.3 (14.5) years compared to 38.8 (14) years for controls (p < 0.01). Cronbach's alpha for the PSO-LIFE was 0.95 and test-retest reliability using the ICC was 0.98. Factor analysis showed the questionnaire to be unidimensional. Mean (SD) PSO-LIFE scores differed between patients with psoriasis and controls (64.9 [22.5] vs 69.4 [17.3]; p < 0.05), between those with active and inactive disease (57.4 [20.4] vs 76.4 [20.6]; p < 0.01), and between those with visible and non-visible lesions (63.0 [21.9] vs. 74.8 [23.9]; p < 0.01). The correlation between PSO-LIFE and PASI scores was moderate (r = -0.43) while correlations with DLQI and PDI dimensions ranged from moderate to high (between 0.4 and 0.8). Effect size on the PSO-LIFE in patients reporting 'much improved' health status at study completion was 1.01 (large effect size). CONCLUSIONS The present results provide substantial support for the reliability, validity, and responsiveness of the PSO-LIFE questionnaire in the population for which it was designed.

Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteremia: clinical and microbiological epidemiology in a health area of Southern Spain

Streptococcus pneumoniae remains an important cause of bacteremia worldwide. Last years, a decrease of S. pneumoniae penicillin-resistant isolates has been observed. The objective of this study was to describe the episodes of bacteremia due to S. pneumoniae during a period of 11 years. Epidemiological and clinical data, serotypes causing bacteremia, antibiotic susceptibility and prognosis factors were studied. Over a period of 11 years, all the episodes of S. pneumoniae bacteremia were analysed. Their clinical and microbiological features were recorded. Statistical analysis was carried out to determine risk factors for pneumococcal bacteremia and predictors of fatal outcome. Finally, 67 S. pneumoniae bacteremia episodes were included in this study. The majority of cases were produced in white men in the middle age of their life. The main predisposing factors observed were smoking, antimicrobial and/or corticosteroids administration, chronic pulmonary obstructive disease and HIV infection, and the most common source of bacteremia was the low respiratory tract. The main serotypes found were 19A, 1, 14 and 7F. Seventy-seven percent of these isolates were penicillin-susceptible, and the mortality in this serie was really low. Statistical significance was observed between age, sex and race factors and the presence of bacteremia, and there was relationship between the patient’s condition and the outcome. In our study, S. pneumoniae bacteremia is mainly from community-acquired origin mainly caused in men in the median age of the life. 40% of bacteremias were caused by serotypes 19A, 1, 7F and 14. During the period of study the incidence of bacteremia was stable and the mortality rate was very low.

Factors associated with use of community mental health services by schizophrenia patients using multilevel analysis

BACKGROUND Persons with schizophrenia and related disorders may be particularly sensitive to a number of determinants of service use, including those related with illness, socio-demographic characteristics and organizational factors. The objective of this study is to identify factors associated with outpatient contacts at community mental health services of patients with schizophrenia or related disorders. METHODS This cross-sectional study analyzed 1097 patients. The main outcome measure was the total number of outpatient consultations during one year. Independent variables were related to socio-demographic, clinical and use of service factors. Data were collected from clinical records. RESULTS The multilevel linear regression model explained 46.35% of the variance. Patients with significantly more contacts with ambulatory services were not working and were receiving welfare benefits (p = 0.02), had no formal education (p = 0.02), had a global level of severity of two or three (four being the most severe) (p < 0.001), with one or more inpatient admissions (p < 0.001), and in contact with both types of professional (nurses and psychiatrists) (p < 0.001). The patients with the fewest ambulatory contacts were those with diagnoses of persistent delusional disorders (p = 0.04) and those who were attended by four of the 13 psychiatrists (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS As expected, the variables that explained the use of community service could be viewed as proxies for severity of illness. The most surprising finding, however, was that a group of four psychiatrists was also independently associated with use of ambulatory services by patients with schizophrenia or related disorders. More research is needed to carefully examine how professional support networks interact to affect use of mental health.

Not so disadvantaged: Portuguese migrants in Switzerland have a better access to healthcare and health status than Portuguese residents

Background: Most migrant studies have compared health characteristics between migrants and nationals of the host country. We aimed at comparing health characteristics of migrants with nationals from their home country. Methods: Portuguese national health survey (2005-6; 30,173 participants aged 18-75 years) and four national health surveys conducted in Switzerland (2002, 2004, 2007 and 2011, totalling 1,170 Portuguese migrants of the same age range). Self-reported data on length of stay, cardiovascular risk factors, healthcare use and health status were collected. Results: Resident Portuguese were significantly older and more educated than migrants. Resident Portuguese had a higher mean BMI and prevalence of obesity than migrants. Resident Portuguese also reported more frequently being hypertensive and having their blood pressure screened within the last year. On the contrary, migrant Portuguese were more frequently smokers, had a medical visit in the previous year more frequently and self-rated their health higher than resident Portuguese. After adjustment for age, gender, marital status and education, migrants had a higher likelihood smoking, of having a medical visit the previous year, and of self-rating their current health as good or very good than resident Portuguese. Compared to Portuguese residents, cholesterol screening in the previous year was more common only among migrants living in Switzerland for more than 17 years. Conclusion: Portuguese migrants in Switzerland do not differ substantially from resident Portuguese regarding most cardiovascular risk factors. Migrants appear to benefit from higher healthcare accessibility and consider themselves healthier than Portuguese residents.

Pulmonary embolism and 3-month outcomes in 4036 patients with venous thromboembolism and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: data from the RIETE registry.

BACKGROUND Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have a modified clinical presentation of venous thromboembolism (VTE) but also a worse prognosis than non-COPD patients with VTE. As it may induce therapeutic modifications, we evaluated the influence of the initial VTE presentation on the 3-month outcomes in COPD patients. METHODS COPD patients included in the on-going world-wide RIETE Registry were studied. The rate of pulmonary embolism (PE), major bleeding and death during the first 3 months in COPD patients were compared according to their initial clinical presentation (acute PE or deep vein thrombosis (DVT)). RESULTS Of the 4036 COPD patients included, 2452 (61%; 95% CI: 59.2-62.3) initially presented with PE. PE as the first VTE recurrence occurred in 116 patients, major bleeding in 101 patients and mortality in 443 patients (Fatal PE: first cause of death). Multivariate analysis confirmed that presenting with PE was associated with higher risk of VTE recurrence as PE (OR, 2.04; 95% CI: 1.11-3.72) and higher risk of fatal PE (OR, 7.77; 95% CI: 2.92-15.7). CONCLUSIONS COPD patients presenting with PE have an increased risk for PE recurrences and fatal PE compared with those presenting with DVT alone. More efficient therapy is needed in this subtype of patients.

Utility of the mini-cog for detection of cognitive impairment in primary care: data from two spanish studies.

Objectives. To study the utility of the Mini-Cog test for detection of patients with cognitive impairment (CI) in primary care (PC). Methods. We pooled data from two phase III studies conducted in Spain. Patients with complaints or suspicion of CI were consecutively recruited by PC physicians. The cognitive diagnosis was performed by an expert neurologist, after formal neuropsychological evaluation. The Mini-Cog score was calculated post hoc, and its diagnostic utility was evaluated and compared with the utility of the Mini-Mental State (MMS), the Clock Drawing Test (CDT), and the sum of the MMS and the CDT (MMS + CDT) using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The best cut points were obtained on the basis of diagnostic accuracy (DA) and kappa index. Results. A total sample of 307 subjects (176 CI) was analyzed. The Mini-Cog displayed an AUC (±SE) of 0.78 ± 0.02, which was significantly inferior to the AUC of the CDT (0.84 ± 0.02), the MMS (0.84 ± 0.02), and the MMS + CDT (0.86 ± 0.02). The best cut point of the Mini-Cog was 1/2 (sensitivity 0.60, specificity 0.90, DA 0.73, and kappa index 0.48 ± 0.05). Conclusions. The utility of the Mini-Cog for detection of CI in PC was very modest, clearly inferior to the MMS or the CDT. These results do not permit recommendation of the Mini-Cog in PC.

Expectations, experiences and attitudes of patients and primary care health professionals regarding online psychotherapeutic interventions for depression: protocol for a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND In the year 2020, depression will cause the second highest amount of disability worldwide. One quarter of the population will suffer from depression symptoms at some point in their lives. Mental health services in Western countries are overburdened. Therefore, cost-effective interventions that do not involve mental health services, such as online psychotherapy programs, have been proposed. These programs demonstrate satisfactory outcomes, but the completion rate for patients is low. Health professionals' attitudes towards this type of psychotherapy are more negative than the attitudes of depressed patients themselves. The aim of this study is to describe the profile of depressed patients who would benefit most from online psychotherapy and to identify expectations, experiences, and attitudes about online psychotherapy among both patients and health professionals that can facilitate or hinder its effects. METHODS A parallel qualitative design will be used in a randomised controlled trial on the efficiency of online psychotherapeutic treatment for depression. Through interviews and focus groups, the experiences of treated patients, their reasons for abandoning the program, the expectations of untreated patients, and the attitudes of health professionals will be examined. Questions will be asked about training in new technologies, opinions of online psychotherapy, adjustment to therapy within the daily routine, the virtual and anonymous relationship with the therapist, the process of online communication, information necessary to make progress in therapy, process of working with the program, motivations and attitudes about treatment, expected consequences, normalisation of this type of therapy in primary care, changes in the physician-patient relationship, and resources and risks. A thematic content analysis from the grounded theory for interviews and an analysis of the discursive positions of participants based on the sociological model for focus groups will be performed. DISCUSSION Knowledge of the expectations, experiences, and attitudes of both patients and medical personnel regarding online interventions for depression can facilitate the implementation of this new psychotherapeutic tool. This qualitative investigation will provide thorough knowledge of the perceptions, beliefs, and values of patients and clinicians, which will be very useful for understanding how to implement this intervention method for depression.