Horizon scanning for invasive alien species with the potential to threaten biodiversity in Great Britain

Invasive alien species (IAS) are considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, particularly through their interactions with other drivers of change. Horizon scanning, the systematic examination of future potential threats and opportunities, leading to prioritization of IAS threats is seen as an essential component of IAS management. Our aim was to consider IAS that were likely to impact on native biodiversity but were not yet established in the wild in Great Britain. To achieve this, we developed an approach which coupled consensus methods (which have previously been used for collaboratively identifying priorities in other contexts) with rapid risk assessment. The process involved two distinct phases: 1. Preliminary consultation with experts within five groups (plants, terrestrial invertebrates, freshwater invertebrates, vertebrates and marine species) to derive ranked lists of potential IAS. 2. Consensus-building across expert groups to compile and rank the entire list of potential IAS. Five hundred and ninety-one species not native to Great Britain were considered. Ninety-three of these species were agreed to constitute at least a medium risk (based on score and consensus) with respect to them arriving, establishing and posing a threat to native biodiversity. The quagga mussel, Dreissena rostriformis bugensis, received maximum scores for risk of arrival, establishment and impact; following discussions the unanimous consensus was to rank it in the top position. A further 29 species were considered to constitute a high risk and were grouped according to their ranked risk. The remaining 63 species were considered as medium risk, and included in an unranked long list. The information collated through this novel extension of the consensus method for horizon scanning provides evidence for underpinning and prioritizing management both for the species and, perhaps more importantly, their pathways of arrival. Although our study focused on Great Britain, we suggest that the methods adopted are applicable globally.

A kingdom united? Devolution and welfare reform in Northern Ireland and Great Britain

Welfare to work has received less attention in devolution studies than other policy sectors. Drawing on Hall’s (1993) ‘orders of change’ model as an analytical framework, this paper addresses this deficit. The devolution settlement and constitutional question in Northern Ireland limit the likelihood of radical departure from ‘parity’ with Great Britain but differences are emerging.

Credit Unions in Great Britain: Recent Trends and Current Prospects

Against the current backdrop of deteriorating economic and financial conditions we consider recent trends and current prospects for credit unions in Great Britain. We note that although credit unions have experienced solid membership and asset growth there are clouds on the horizon. Bad debts and loan arrears are on the rise and may be linked to recent legislative amendments and the increasing use by Government of credit unions as a mechanism to achieve its financial inclusion goals. Whatever the reason, the deterioration in the loan book needs to be quickly addressed, or it will ultimately result in either more government bailouts or a stream of failing credit unions.

Annotated Bibliography: Grande Bretagne / Great Britain: Part Four: Administrative Law texts

(with C. N. Doe).

Annotated Bibliography: Grande Bretagne / Great Britain: Part One The Formative Writers.

(With C. N. Doe.)

Annotated Bibliography: Grande Bretagne / Great Britain: Part Two The Textbook Tradition.

(With C.N. Doe.)

Centres, Peripheries and Party Systems: nested secession processes in Great Britain and Ireland

The seminal work of Lipset and Rokkan, which explores how party systems evolved organically from nineteenth-century roots, has generally been applied in states which have enjoyed a long-standing territorial identity. Their model's emphasis on stability and predictability can, however, be reconciled with circumstances where the very identity of the state itself is an issue. This article explores the capacity of the model to explain party divisions in three nested contexts: the pre-1922 United Kingdom, which encountered problems with its Celtic peripheries, and especially with Ireland; independent Ireland, where a unique party system developed, largely in response to a broader historical and geographical context; and Northern Ireland, where party politics fossilised in the 1880s, and began to unfreeze only in the 1970s. The article argues that the Lipset–Rokkan model casts valuable light on these processes, which in turn contribute to the theoretical richness of the model.

Bird diversity and environmental gradients in Britain:a test of the species-energy hypothesis

1. We tested the species diversity-energy hypothesis using the British bird fauna. This predicts that temperature patterns should match diversity patterns. We also tested the hypothesis that the mechanism operates directly through effects of temperature on thermoregulatory loads; this further predicts that seasonal changes in temperature cause matching changes in patterns of diversity, and that species' body mass is influential.

2. We defined four assemblages using migration status (residents or visitors) and season (summer or winter distribution). Records of species' presence/absence in a total of 2362, 10 x 10-km, quadrats covering most of Britain were used, together with a wide selection of habitat, topographic and seasonal climatic data.

3. We fitted a logistic regression model to each species' distribution using the environmental data. We then combined these individual species models mathematically to form a diversity model. Analysis of this composite model revealed that summer temperature was the factor most strongly associated with diversity.

4. Although the species-energy hypothesis was supported, the direct mechanism, predicting an important role for body mass and matching seasonal patterns of change between diversity and temperature, was not supported.

5. However, summer temperature is the best overall explanation for bird diversity patterns in Britain. It is a better predictor of winter diversity than winter temperature. Winter diversity is predicted more precisely from environmental factors than summer diversity.

6. Climate change is likely to influence the diversity of different areas to different extents; for resident species, low diversity areas may respond more strongly as climate change progresses. For winter visitors, higher diversity areas may respond more strongly, while summer visitors are approximately neutral.

Fasciola hepatica from naturally infected sheep and cattle in Great Britain are diploid

Diploid (2n = 2x = 20) and triploid (2n = 3x = 30) Fasciola hepatica have been reported in the UK, and in Asia diploid, triploid and mixoploid (2x/3x) Fasciola spp. exist but there is little information to indicate how common triploidy is, particularly in UK fluke. Here the ploidy of 565 adult F. hepatica from 66 naturally infected British sheep and 150 adult F. hepatica from 35 naturally infected British cattle was determined. All 715 of these parasites were diploid, based on observation of 10 bivalent chromosomes and sperm (n = 335) or, since triploids are aspermic, sperm alone (n = 380). This constitutes the first extensive analysis of the ploidy of F. hepatica field isolates from Great Britain and shows that most F. hepatica isolated from cattle and sheep are diploid and have the capacity to sexually reproduce. These data suggest that triploidy, and by extension parthenogenesis, is rare or non-existent in wild British F. hepatica populations. Given that F. hepatica is the only species of Fasciola present in Britain our results indicate that the parasite is predominantly diploid in areas where F. hepatica exists in isolation and suggests that triploidy may only originate in natural populations where co-infection of F. hepatica and its sister species Fasciola gigantica commonly occurs.

The Marquess of Londonderry: Aristocracy, Power and Politics in Britain and Ireland

The decline and fall of the British aristocracy looked headlong and irreversible in the twentieth century yet many grandees tried to preserve their power, wealth and influence by every means - and with some success. There is no better example than the Seventh Marquess of Londonderry whose life from 1878 to 1949 spanned and mirrored the period. The Londonderrys had enjoyed immense wealth in land and minerals in Britain and Ireland for centuries, played leading roles in Parliament and the state, and in an earlier time the Seventh Marquess would have continued in the family tradition of patrician prominence. Drawing upon original state and family papers, N.C. Fleming places the Londonderrys in the context of the history and the political theory of aristocracy and shows the constant struggle - not without success - against marginalisation. The theme runs through Londonderry's career as Conservative MP, on the Irish Viceroy's Council, as a junior minister in Lloyd Geroge's coalition, at the Air Ministry with Trenchard - the 'father of the RAF' - and in the National Government. Perhaps an element of desperation entered in his private business ventures and with contacts with the far Right - all in sharp contrast to past family achievement.