Using Quantitative Methods to Explore Political Leverage, Trade Policy, and Food Security: A Case Study of the Middle East

This dissertation explores why some states consistently secure food imports at prices higher than the world market price, thereby exacerbating food insecurity domestically. I challenge the idea that free market economics alone can explain these trade behaviors, and instead argue that states take into account political considerations when engaging in food trade that results in inefficient trade. In particular, states that are dependent on imports of staple food products, like cereals, are wary of the potential strategic value of these goods to exporters. I argue that this consideration, combined with the importing state’s ability to mitigate that risk through its own forms of political or economic leverage, will shape the behavior of the importing state and contribute to its potential for food security. In addition to cross-national analyses, I use case studies of the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Jordan to demonstrate how the political tools available to these importers affect their food security. The results of my analyses suggest that when import dependent states have access to forms of political leverage, they are more likely to trade efficiently, thereby increasing their potential for food security.

Can Regional Cooperation Promote Sustainable Development?

This chapter argues that regional cooperation may be a promising framework to work towards sustainable development. There are two broad pathways linking regional cooperation and sustainable development. On the one hand, shared or transboundary socio-environmental concerns may spark regional cooperation and on the other, pre-existing regional organisations created for other purposes become frameworks to address sustainability concerns. Yet, neither of these processes is automatic and whether they take place depends on the existence of particular drivers pursuing a sustainability agenda at the regional level. Ultimately, whether regional cooperation fosters sustainable development and how this takes place thus depends to a large extent on the specific people or organisations driving a sustainability agenda at the regional level and their relationship to national governments.

Reconciling History and International Law: Territorial and Maritime Claims in the South China Sea and East China Sea

High-ranking Chinese military officials are often quoted in international media as stating that China cannot afford to lose even an inch of Chinese territory, as this territory has been passed down from Chinese ancestors. Such statements are not new in Chinese politics, but recently this narrative has made an important transition. While previously limited to disputes over land borders, such rhetoric is now routinely applied to disputes involving islands and maritime borders. China is increasingly oriented toward its maritime borders and seems unwilling to compromise on delimitation disputes, a transition mirrored by many states across the globe. In a similar vein, scholarship has found that territorial disputes are particularly intractable and volatile when compared with other types of disputes, and a large body of research has grappled with producing systematic knowledge of territorial conflict. Yet in this wide body of literature, an important question has remained largely unanswered - how do states determine which geographical areas will be included in their territorial and maritime claims? In other words, if nations are willing to fight and die for an inch of national territory, how do governments draw the boundaries of the nation? This dissertation uses in-depth case studies of some of the most prominent territorial and maritime disputes in East Asia to argue that domestic political processes play a dominant and previously under-explored role in both shaping claims and determining the nature of territorial and maritime disputes. China and Taiwan are particularly well suited for this type of investigation, as they are separate claimants in multiple disputes, yet they both draw upon the same historical record when establishing and justifying their claims. Leveraging fieldwork in Taiwan, China, and the US, this dissertation includes in-depth case studies of China’s and Taiwan’s respective claims in both the South China Sea and East China Sea disputes. Evidence from this dissertation indicates that officials in both China and Taiwan have struggled with how to reconcile history and international law when establishing their claims, and that this struggle has introduced ambiguity into China's and Taiwan's claims. Amid this process, domestic political dynamics have played a dominant role in shaping the options available and the potential for claims to change in the future. In Taiwan’s democratic system, where national identity is highly contested through party politics, opinions vary along a broad spectrum as to the proper borders of the nation, and there is considerable evidence that Taiwan’s claims may change in the near future. In contrast, within China’s single-party authoritarian political system, where nationalism is source of regime legitimacy, views on the proper interpretation of China’s boundaries do vary, but along a much more narrow range. In the dissertation’s final chapter, additional cases, such as South Korea’s position on Dokdo and Indonesia’s approach to the defense of Natuna are used as points of comparison to further clarify theoretical findings.

Securing Disunion: young people’s nationalism, identities and (in)securities in the campaign for an independent Scotland.

This paper explores ethnic and religious minority youth perspectives of security and nationalism in Scotland during the independence campaign in 2014.  We discuss how young people co-construct narratives of Scottish nationalism alongside minority ethnic and faith identities in order to feel secure. By critically combining literatures from feminist geopolitics, international relations (IR) and children’s emotional geographies, we employ the concept of ‘ontological security’. The paper departs from state-centric approaches to security to explore the relational entanglements between geopolitical discourses and the ontological security of young people living through a moment of political change. We examine how everyday encounters with difference can reflect broader geopolitical narratives of security and insecurity, which subsequently trouble notions of ‘multicultural nationalism’ in Scotland and demonstrate ways that youth ‘securitize the self’ (Kinnvall, 2004). The paper responds to calls for empirical analyses of youth perspectives on nationalism and security (Benwell, 2016) and on the nexus between security and emotional subjectivity in critical geopolitics (Pain, 2009; Shaw et al., 2014). Funded by the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC), this paper draws on focus group and interview data from 382 ethnic and religious minority young people in Scotland collected over the 12-month period of the campaign. Keywords: nationalism, young people, race and ethnicity, ontological security, everyday geopolitics

Clouds of Suspicion: Airspace Arrangements, Escalation, and Discord in U.S./NATO-Russian Relations

How have cooperative airspace arrangements contributed to cooperation and discord in the Euro-Atlantic region? This study analyzes the role of three sets of airspace arrangements developed by Euro-Atlantic states since the end of the Cold War—(1) cooperative aerial surveillance of military activity, (2) exchange of air situational data, and (3) joint engagement of theater air and missile threats—in political-military relations among neighbors and within the region. These arrangements provide insights into the integration of Central and Eastern European states into Western security institutions, and the current discord that centers on the conflict in Ukraine and Russia’s place in regional security. The study highlights the role of airspace incidents as contributors to conflict escalation and identifies opportunities for transparency- and confidence-building measures to improve U.S./NATO-Russian relations. The study recommends strengthening the Open Skies Treaty in order to facilitate the resolution of conflicts and improve region-wide military transparency. It notes that political-military arrangements for engaging theater air and missile threats created by NATO and Russia over the last twenty years are currently postured in a way that divides the region and inhibits mutual security. In turn, the U.S.-led Regional Airspace Initiatives that facilitated the exchange of air situational data between NATO and then-NATO-aspirants such as Poland and the Baltic states, offer a useful precedent for improving air sovereignty and promoting information sharing to reduce the fear of war among participating states. Thus, projects like NATO’s Air Situational Data Exchange and the NATO-Russia Council Cooperative Airspace Initiative—if extended to the exchange of data about military aircraft—have the potential to buttress deterrence and contribute to conflict prevention. The study concludes that documenting the evolution of airspace arrangements since the end of the Cold War contributes to understanding of the conflicting narratives put forward by Russia, the West, and the states “in-between” with respect to reasons for the current state of regional security. The long-term project of developing a zone of stable peace in the Euro-Atlantic must begin with the difficult task of building inclusive security institutions to accommodate the concerns of all regional actors.

L'état de nature dans le Léviathan de Thomas Hobbes et la controverse entourant son utilisation dans les analyses des relations internationales

L'état de nature de Thomas Hobbes repose sur une étude des limites de la connaissance de l'être humain. Ces limites sont considérables, si bien qu'il est selon Hobbes impossible pour le genre humain de naturellement instaurer un système de vérité commun à l'espèce. L'homme est à l'état de nature dans une situation que nous qualifions « d'anarchie épistémologique » ce qui se traduit dans le Léviathan de Hobbes comme étant une situation de guerre de chacun contre chacun. Ce n'est que par l'institution d'un souverain tout puissant que l'homme peut espérer dépasser la condition de misère qui caractérise sa situation à l'état de nature. Le projet philosophique et politique de Hobbes concerne donc essentiellement l'être humain dans sa situation politique domestique. Hobbes ne consacre effectivement rien de substantiel à l'analyse des relations internationales. Pourtant, le nom de Thomas Hobbes revient souvent à ce niveau d'analyse, particulièrement lorsqu'il s'agit de conceptualiser les rapports interétatiques comme étant analogues à ceux des hommes à l'état de nature. Cette transposition est à notre avis problématique plutôt que constructive puisqu'elle ne reflète en rien les analyses du philosophe. Nous proposons de démontrer ce point par le biais d'une étude exégétique de la pensée de Hobbes.

Constructing Threat: How Americans Identify Economic Competitors

China’s emergence as an economic powerhouse has often been portrayed as threatening to America’s economic strength and to its very identity as “the global hegemon.” The media’s alarmist response to an economic competitor is familiar to those who remember US-Japanese relations in the 1980s. In order to better understand the basis of American threat perception, this study explores the independent and interactive impact of three variables (perceptions of the Other’s capabilities, perceptions of the Other as a threat versus as an opportunity, and perceptions of the Other’s political culture) on attitudes toward two different economic competitors (Japan 1977-1995 and China 1985-2011). Utilizing four methods (historical process tracing, public polling data analysis, social scientific experimentation, and content analysis), this study demonstrates that increases in the Other’s economic capabilities have a much smaller impact on attitudes than is commonly believed. It further shows that while perceptions of threat/opportunity played a significant role in shaping attitudinal response toward Japan, perceptions of political culture are the most important factor driving attitudes toward China today. This study contributes to a better understanding of how states react to threats and construct negative images of their economic rivals. It also helps to explain the current Sino-American relationship and enables better predictions as to its potential future course. Finally, these findings contribute to cultural explanations of the democratic peace phenomenon and provide a boundary condition (political culture) for the liberal proposition that opportunity ameliorates conflict in the economic realm.

L'état de nature dans le Léviathan de Thomas Hobbes et la controverse entourant son utilisation dans les analyses des relations internationales

L'état de nature de Thomas Hobbes repose sur une étude des limites de la connaissance de l'être humain. Ces limites sont considérables, si bien qu'il est selon Hobbes impossible pour le genre humain de naturellement instaurer un système de vérité commun à l'espèce. L'homme est à l'état de nature dans une situation que nous qualifions « d'anarchie épistémologique » ce qui se traduit dans le Léviathan de Hobbes comme étant une situation de guerre de chacun contre chacun. Ce n'est que par l'institution d'un souverain tout puissant que l'homme peut espérer dépasser la condition de misère qui caractérise sa situation à l'état de nature. Le projet philosophique et politique de Hobbes concerne donc essentiellement l'être humain dans sa situation politique domestique. Hobbes ne consacre effectivement rien de substantiel à l'analyse des relations internationales. Pourtant, le nom de Thomas Hobbes revient souvent à ce niveau d'analyse, particulièrement lorsqu'il s'agit de conceptualiser les rapports interétatiques comme étant analogues à ceux des hommes à l'état de nature. Cette transposition est à notre avis problématique plutôt que constructive puisqu'elle ne reflète en rien les analyses du philosophe. Nous proposons de démontrer ce point par le biais d'une étude exégétique de la pensée de Hobbes.

Strategic Diplomacies: Indigenous Governance, International Politics, and Natural Resources in Canada

International Relations theory would predict that central governments, with their considerable material resources, would be unlikely to face a challenge from a substate government. However, substate governments, and particularly Indigenous governments, are pushing back against central government control in both domestic and international spheres. Indigenous governments are leveraging their local mining sectors to realize their interests and express local identities—interests and identities that may not be congruent with those of the central government. Applying the case study of the resource extraction sector in Canada, this thesis asks: under what conditions are substate governments able to challenge the authority of central governments in the international arena? Canada’s reliance on the global extractive resource sector is a major driver of its international policy preferences, but the increased engagement of Indigenous governments in the sector challenges the control of the federal government. Focusing on the resource extraction sectors in British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and Ontario, this thesis argues that there is a mutually reinforcing relationship between Indigenous governments’ international engagement and their domestic autonomy; both challenge the parameters of state authority. Both force the state to respond to claims of control from multiple sites and to clarify convoluted policy environments. A confluence of factors—including increased Indigenous connections to the globalized economy, new Canadian regulatory frameworks, and recent Supreme Court of Canada cases regarding Indigenous lands—have all altered the space in which Indigenous governments in Canada participate in the resource extraction sector and produce overlapping or multilevel governance structures. This thesis demonstrates that Indigenous international engagement entrenches the authority and political legitimacy manifest in Indigenous governments’ insistence on equitable and horizontal negotiations in Canada’s lucrative resource extraction sector. A cumulative process occurs in which domestic and international expressions of political autonomy reinforce each other, produce further opportunities to express authority in both environments, and trouble the state’s capacity to fully realize its international policy preferences.

Análisis de las sanciones internacionales en el marco del tratado de no proliferación nuclear. Estudio de caso: energía atómica en Irán (2006-2015)

El presente trabajo de Grado tiene como propósito examinar la incidencia de las sancionesinternacionales en el marco del régimen de no proliferación nuclear en el caso de Irán durante el periodo 2006-2015, teniendo en cuenta factores históricos de años anteriores. Se analiza y explica cómo las sanciones internacionales pueden ser una medida persuasiva por violar ciertos artículos del Tratado de no Proliferación Nuclear. Finalmente identifica y analiza los tipos de sanciones económicas, financieras y comerciales que los Estados y el Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas le han impuesto a Irán, así como la manera en que estas han incidido en la esfera política iraní y mundial.

Predicamento de seguridad yemení

Con el inicio del periodo Post-Guerra Fría el Sistema Internacional comienza a experimentar un incremento en el fortalecimiento de su componente social; la Sociedad de Estados alcanza un mayor nivel de homogenización, el estado, unidad predominante de esta, comienzan atravesar una serie de transformaciones que obedecerán a una serie de cambios y continuidades respecto al periodo anterior. Desde la perspectiva del Realismo Subalterno de las Relaciones Internacionales se destacan el proceso de construcción de estado e inserción al sistema como las variables que determinan el sentimiento de inseguridad experimentado por las elites estatales del Tercer Mundo; procesos que en el contexto de un nuevo y turbulento periodo en el sistema, tomara algunas características particulares que darán un sentido especifico al sentimiento de inseguridad y las acciones a través de las cuales las elites buscan disminuirlo. La dimensión externa del sentimiento de inseguridad, el nuevo papel que toma la resistencia popular como factor determinante del sentimiento de inseguridad y de la cooperación, así como del conflicto, entre los miembros de la Sociedad Internacional, la inserción como promotor de estrategias de construcción de Estado, son alguno de los temas puntuales, que desde la perspectiva subalterna, parecen salir a flote tras el análisis del sistema en lo que se ha considerado como el periodo Post-Guerra Fría. En este sentido Yemen, se muestra como un caso adecuado no solo para poner a prueba las postulados de la teoría subalterna, veinte años después de su obra más prominente (The third world security Predicament), escrita por M. Ayoob, sino como un caso pertinente que permite acercarse más a la comprensión del papel del Tercer Mundo al interior de la Sociedad Internacional de Estados.

El legado de los flujos migratorios hacia la península de Crimea entre 1860 – 1991 en la crisis política de 2014

La presente investigación propone un análisis sobre la crisis política de Crimea en 2014 a partir del influjo que las migraciones desde Rusia han tenido en la historia reciente. Así, a partir de la evaluación de algunos de los momentos de inmigración más representativos en los últimos dos siglos (1860, 1928 y 1991) se vincula el proceso de construcción de la identidad de los inmigrantes -transversal en diferentes periodos históricos en Crimea- con el desarrollo de los eventos de 2014. Lo anterior permite identificar un cierto legado de la migración hacia Crimea en el desarrollo de la crisis, cuyo resultado principal ha sido la anexión de facto de Crimea a Rusia. Ésta no habría sido posible sin el particular ánimo de afinidad con la idea de Rusia –o Russianness- de la mayoría de los habitantes de la península, cuya presencia en la región se explica en parte, a través de los procesos migratorios antes descritos.

Diferencias regionales en las estructuras de ingresos laborales en Colombia

Dada la persistencia de las diferencias en ingresos laborales por regiones en Colombia, el presente artículo propone cuantificar la magnitud de este diferencial que es atribuida a la diferencia en estructuras de mercado laboral, entendiendo esta última como la diferencia en los retornos a las características de la fuerza laboral. Para ello se propone el uso de un método de descomposición del tipo Oaxaca- Blinder y se compara a Bogotá –la ciudad con mayores ingresos laborales- con otras ciudades principales. Los resultados obtenidos al conducir el ejercicio de descomposición muestran que las diferencias en estructura están a favor de Bogotá y que estas explican más de la mitad de la diferencia total, indicando que si se quieren reducir las disparidades de ingresos laborales entre ciudades no es suficiente con calificar la fuerza laboral y que es necesario indagar por las causas que hacen que los retornos a las características difieran entre ciudades.

El efecto de la definición regulatoria de banda ancha sobre la difusión y la competencia del mercado de servicios de Internet fijo en Colombia

A partir de la dinámica evolutiva de la economía de las Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones y el establecimiento de estándares mínimos de velocidad en distintos contextos regulatorios a nivel mundial, en particular en Colombia, en el presente artículo se presentan diversas aproximaciones empíricas para evaluar los efectos reales que conlleva el establecimiento de definiciones de servicios de banda ancha en el mercado de Internet fijo. Con base en los datos disponibles para Colombia sobre los planes de servicios de Internet fijo ofrecidos durante el periodo 2006-2012, se estima para los segmentos residencial y corporativo el proceso de difusión logístico modificado y el modelo de interacción estratégica para identificar los impactos generados sobre la masificación del servicio a nivel municipal y sobre las decisiones estratégicas que adoptan los operadores, respectivamente. Respecto a los resultados, se encuentra, por una parte, que las dos medidas regulatorias establecidas en Colombia en 2008 y 2010 presentan efectos significativos y positivos sobre el desplazamiento y el crecimiento de los procesos de difusión a nivel municipal. Por otra parte, se observa sustituibilidad estratégica en las decisiones de oferta de velocidad de descarga por parte de los operadores corporativos mientras que, a partir del análisis de distanciamiento de la velocidad ofrecida respecto al estándar mínimo de banda ancha, se demuestra que los proveedores de servicios residenciales tienden a agrupar sus decisiones de velocidad alrededor de los niveles establecidos por regulación.