Assessing Decision Making Skill in Complex and Dynamic Environments Using Representative and Simulated Tasks

Traditional decision making research has often focused on one's ability to choose from a set of prefixed options, ignoring the process by which decision makers generate courses of action (i.e., options) in-situ (Klein, 1993). In complex and dynamic domains, this option generation process is particularly critical to understanding how successful decisions are made (Zsambok & Klein, 1997). When generating response options for oneself to pursue (i.e., during the intervention-phase of decision making) previous research has supported quick and intuitive heuristics, such as the Take-The-First heuristic (TTF; Johnson & Raab, 2003). When generating predictive options for others in the environment (i.e., during the assessment-phase of decision making), previous research has supported the situational-model-building process described by Long Term Working Memory theory (LTWM; see Ward, Ericsson, & Williams, 2013). In the first three experiments, the claims of TTF and LTWM are tested during assessment- and intervention-phase tasks in soccer. To test what other environmental constraints may dictate the use of these cognitive mechanisms, the claims of these models are also tested in the presence and absence of time pressure. In addition to understanding the option generation process, it is important that researchers in complex and dynamic domains also develop tools that can be used by `real-world' professionals. For this reason, three more experiments were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a new online assessment of perceptual-cognitive skill in soccer. This test differentiated between skill groups and predicted performance on a previously established test and predicted option generation behavior. The test also outperformed domain-general cognitive tests, but not a domain-specific knowledge test when predicting skill group membership. Implications for theory and training, and future directions for the development of applied tools are discussed.

Genetic architecture and sexual conflict in the life history of Drosophila

Because males and females of a species express many homologous traits, sex-specific selection on these traits can shift the opposite sex away from its phenotypic optimum. This mode of sexually antagonistic selection, known as intralocus sexual conflict (IaSC), arises when the evolution of sexual dimorphism is constrained by the two sexes sharing a common gene pool. As IaSC has been historically overlooked, many outstanding questions remain. For example, what is its contribution in maintaining genetic variation for fitness in populations? What characters underlie this variation in fitness? How does the selection history of the population influence the standing genetic variation? I used the model organism Drosophila melanogaster to attempt to resolve some of these questions. The first part of my Master’s project involved assessing the detectability of sexually antagonistic alleles in populations at different stages of adaptation to the laboratory. For the second part of my Master’s project, I looked for evidence of conflict during the development of body size, a well-known sexually dimorphic trait. While the first part of my thesis proved inconclusive, the second part revealed a surprising source of sexual conflict in pre-adult stages of D. melanogaster.

Geometrical Methods in Multivariate Risk Management: Algorithms and Applications

This thesis builds a framework for evaluating downside risk from multivariate data via a special class of risk measures (RM). The peculiarity of the analysis lies in getting rid of strong data distributional assumptions and in orientation towards the most critical data in risk management: those with asymmetries and heavy tails. At the same time, under typical assumptions, such as the ellipticity of the data probability distribution, the conformity with classical methods is shown. The constructed class of RM is a multivariate generalization of the coherent distortion RM, which possess valuable properties for a risk manager. The design of the framework is twofold. The first part contains new computational geometry methods for the high-dimensional data. The developed algorithms demonstrate computability of geometrical concepts used for constructing the RM. These concepts bring visuality and simplify interpretation of the RM. The second part develops models for applying the framework to actual problems. The spectrum of applications varies from robust portfolio selection up to broader spheres, such as stochastic conic optimization with risk constraints or supervised machine learning.

Genetic diversity and population structure of the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus L.) across its distributional range

Lampreys are a group of ancient vertebrates with 360 million years of existence. Throughout their evolution, they have acquired local adaptations to the colonized habitats, showing high plasticity and adaptive capacities. The sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus L.) is a parasitic and anadromous species that occurs in both sides of the North Atlantic. The aims of this study were to analyse, using microsatellite markers, the genetic diversity and population structure of sea lamprey throughout its distributional range. Analyses demonstrated consistent signs of high population differentiation between European and North American samples (two-groups structure), most probably due to isolation by distance, but low differentiation among populations from the same coast. The apparent lack of homing in this species is in line with its high evolutive success, as homing may bring adults back to natal habitats that have changed, or that are intermittently unfavourable. Analyses also demonstrated higher levels of genetic diversity in North American samples; DIVERSIDADE GENÉTICA E ESTRUTURA POPULACIONAL DA LAMPREIA-MARINHA (PETROMYZON MARINUS L.) AO LONGO DA SUA ÁREA DE DISTRIBUIÇÃO Resumo: As lampreias são organismos ancestrais com cerca de 360 milhões de anos de existência. No decorrer da longa escala evolutiva têm vindo a adquirir adaptações aos locais que colonizaram, tendo uma forte capacidade evolutiva e adaptativa. A lampreia-marinha (Petromyzon marinus L.) é uma espécie parasita e anádroma que ocorre em ambas as costas do Atlântico Norte. Este estudo teve como principal objetivo estudar a diversidade genética e a estrutura populacional desta espécie ao longo da sua área de distribuição, através do uso de microssatélites. Os resultados demonstraram forte divergência entre populações das costas Este e Oeste do Atlântico Norte, provavelmente devido à elevada distância entre populações, mas pouca diferenciação entre populações da mesma costa. A ausência de homing nesta espécie terá contribuído para o seu sucesso evolutivo, uma vez que o homing pode levar indivíduos a reproduzirem-se em habitats que se tornaram desfavoráveis ou intermitentemente inapropriados. Os resultados demonstraram também uma maior variabilidade genética nas populações americanas.

Circadian Phase Control - Genetic Algorithm and Non-linear Control Approach

This paper deals with the phase control for Neurospora circadian rhythm. The nonlinear control, given by tuning the parameters (considered as controlled variables) in Neurospora dynamical model, allows the circadian rhythms tracking a reference one. When there are many parameters (e.g. 3 parameters in this paper) and their values are unknown, the adaptive control law reveals its weakness since the parameters converging and control objective must be guaranteed at the same time. We show that this problem can be solved using the genetic algorithm for parameters estimation. Once the unknown parameters are known, the phase control is performed by chaos synchronization technique.

Genetic structure and mating type analysis of the Pyricularia oryzae population causing widespread epidemics in southern Brazil.

Blast is a major disease of rice in Brazil, the largest rice-producing country outside Asia. This study aimed to assess the genetic structure and mating-type frequency in a contemporary Pyricularia oryzae population, which caused widespread epidemics during the 2012/13 season in the Brazilian lowland subtropical region. Symptomatic leaves and panicles were sampled at flooded rice fields in the states of Rio Grande do Sul (RS, 34 fields) and Santa Catarina (SC, 21 fields). The polymorphism at ten simple sequence repeats (SSR or microsatellite) loci and the presence of MAT1-1 or MAT1-2 idiomorphs were assessed in a population comprised of 187 isolates. Only the MAT1-2 idiomorph was found and 162 genotypes were identified by the SSR analysis. A discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC) of SSR data resolved four genetic groups, which were strongly associated with the cultivar of origin of the isolates. There was high level of genotypic diversity and moderate level of gene diversity regardless whether isolates were grouped in subpopulations based on geographic region, cultivar host or cultivar within region. While regional subpopulations were weakly differentiated, high genetic differentiation was found among subpopulations comprised of isolates from different cultivars. The data suggest that the rice blast pathogen population in southern Brazil is comprised of clonal lineages that are adapting to specific cultivar hosts. Farmers should avoid the use of susceptible cultivars over large areas and breeders should focus at enlarging the genetic basis of new cultivars.

Forage peanut (Arachis spp.) genetic evaluation and selection.

Forage peanut improvement for use in grass?legume mixtures is expected to have a great impact on the sustainability of Brazilian livestock production. Eighteen cloned Arachis spp. ecotypes were evaluated under clipping in a Brazilian Cerrado region and results analysed using a mixed model methodology. The objective was to estimate genetic and phenotypic parameters and to select the best ecotypes based on selection index applied on their predicted genotypic value. The traits of total dry-matter (DM) and leaf DM yield presented moderate (0_30 < h2g < 0_50) to high (>0_50) broad-sense heritability, in contrast to the low genetic variability in nutritional quality-associated traits. Ecotypes of Arachis spp. contained average crude protein concentrations of 224 g kg _1 DM in leaves and 138 g kg _1 DM in stems, supporting the potential role of these species to overcome the low protein content in Cerrado pastures. The correlations between yield traits and traits associated with low nutritional value in leaves were consistently significant and positive. Genetic correlations among all the yield traits evaluated during the rainy or dry seasons were significant and positive. The ecotypes were ranked based on selection index. The next step is to validate long-term selection of grass?Arachis in combination with pastures under competition and adjusted grazing in the Cerrado region.

Efficient genetic transformation and regeneration system from hairy root of Origanum vulgare.

2016

Comparison of multitemporal MODIS-EVI smoothing algorithms and its contribution to crop monitoring.

Crop monitoring and more generally land use change detection are of primary importance in order to analyze spatio-temporal dynamics and its impacts on environment. This aspect is especially true in such a region as the State of Mato Grosso (south of the Brazilian Amazon Basin) which hosts an intensive pioneer front. Deforestation in this region as often been explained by soybean expansion in the last three decades. Remote sensing techniques may now represent an efficient and objective manner to quantify how crops expansion really represents a factor of deforestation through crop mapping studies. Due to the special characteristics of the soybean productions' farms in Mato Grosso (area varying between 1000 hectares and 40000 hectares and individual fields often bigger than 100 hectares), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data with a near daily temporal resolution and 250 m spatial resolution can be considered as adequate resources to crop mapping. Especially, multitemporal vegetation indices (VI) studies have been currently used to realize this task [1] [2]. In this study, 16-days compositions of EVI (MODQ13 product) data are used. However, although these data are already processed, multitemporal VI profiles still remain noisy due to cloudiness (which is extremely frequent in a tropical region such as south Amazon Basin), sensor problems, errors in atmospheric corrections or BRDF effect. Thus, many works tried to develop algorithms that could smooth the multitemporal VI profiles in order to improve further classification. The goal of this study is to compare and test different smoothing algorithms in order to select the one which satisfies better to the demand which is classifying crop classes. Those classes correspond to 6 different agricultural managements observed in Mato Grosso through an intensive field work which resulted in mapping more than 1000 individual fields. The agricultural managements above mentioned are based on combination of soy, cotton, corn, millet and sorghum crops sowed in single or double crop systems. Due to the difficulty in separating certain classes because of too similar agricultural calendars, the classification will be reduced to 3 classes : Cotton (single crop), Soy and cotton (double crop), soy (single or double crop with corn, millet or sorghum). The classification will use training data obtained in the 2005-2006 harvest and then be tested on the 2006-2007 harvest. In a first step, four smoothing techniques are presented and criticized. Those techniques are Best Index Slope Extraction (BISE) [3], Mean Value Iteration (MVI) [4], Weighted Least Squares (WLS) [5] and Savitzky-Golay Filter (SG) [6] [7]. These techniques are then implemented and visually compared on a few individual pixels so that it allows doing a first selection between the five studied techniques. The WLS and SG techniques are selected according to criteria proposed by [8]. Those criteria are: ability in eliminating frequent noises, conserving the upper values of the VI profiles and keeping the temporality of the profiles. Those selected algorithms are then programmed and applied to the MODIS/TERRA EVI data (16-days composition periods). Tests of separability are realized based on the Jeffries-Matusita distance in order to see if the algorithms managed in improving the potential of differentiation between the classes. Those tests are realized on the overall profile (comprising 23 MODIS images) as well as on each MODIS sub-period of the profile [1]. This last test is a double interest process because it allows comparing the smoothing techniques and also enables to select a set of images which carries more information on the separability between the classes. Those selected dates can then be used to realize a supervised classification. Here three different classifiers are tested to evaluate if the smoothing techniques as a particular effect on the classification depending on the classifiers used. Those classifiers are Maximum Likelihood classifier, Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM) classifier and CHAID Improved Decision tree. It appears through the separability tests on the overall process that the smoothed profiles don't improve efficiently the potential of discrimination between classes when compared with the original data. However, the same tests realized on the MODIS sub-periods show better results obtained with the smoothed algorithms. The results of the classification confirm this first analyze. The Kappa coefficients are always better with the smoothing techniques and the results obtained with the WLS and SG smoothed profiles are nearly equal. However, the results are different depending on the classifier used. The impact of the smoothing algorithms is much better while using the decision tree model. Indeed, it allows a gain of 0.1 in the Kappa coefficient. While using the Maximum Likelihood end SAM models, the gain remains positive but is much lower (Kappa improved of 0.02 only). Thus, this work's aim is to prove the utility in smoothing the VI profiles in order to improve the final results. However, the choice of the smoothing algorithm has to be made considering the original data used and the classifier models used. In that case the Savitzky-Golay filter gave the better results.

Improvement of The Driver Simulator Control and Comparison Between Driver-Road-Vehicle Interaction in Real and Simulated Environment

The present doctoral thesis discusses the ways to improve the performance of driving simulator, provide objective measures for the road safety evaluation methodology based on driver’s behavior and response and investigates the drivers' adaptation to the driving assistant systems. The activities are divided into two macro areas; the driving simulation studies and on-road experiments. During the driving simulation experimentation, the classical motion cueing algorithm with logarithmic scale was implemented in the 2DOF motion cueing simulator and the motion cues were found desirable by the participants. In addition, it found out that motion stimuli could change the behaviour of the drivers in terms of depth/distance perception. During the on-road experimentations, The driver gaze behaviour was investigated to find the objective measures on the visibility of the road signs and reaction time of the drivers. The sensor infusion and the vehicle monitoring instruments were found useful for an objective assessment of the pavement condition and the drivers’ performance. In the last chapter of the thesis, the safety assessment during the use of level 1 automated driving “ACC” is discussed with the simulator and on-road experiment. The drivers’ visual behaviour was investigated in both studies with innovative classification method to find the epochs of the distraction of the drivers. The behavioural adaptation to ACC showed that drivers may divert their attention away from the driving task to engage in secondary, non-driving-related tasks.

Exploiting the environment for structural health monitoring: Strategies, algorithms, and technologies

A densely built environment is a complex system of infrastructure, nature, and people closely interconnected and interacting. Vehicles, public transport, weather action, and sports activities constitute a manifold set of excitation and degradation sources for civil structures. In this context, operators should consider different factors in a holistic approach for assessing the structural health state. Vibration-based structural health monitoring (SHM) has demonstrated great potential as a decision-supporting tool to schedule maintenance interventions. However, most excitation sources are considered an issue for practical SHM applications since traditional methods are typically based on strict assumptions on input stationarity. Last-generation low-cost sensors present limitations related to a modest sensitivity and high noise floor compared to traditional instrumentation. If these devices are used for SHM in urban scenarios, short vibration recordings collected during high-intensity events and vehicle passage may be the only available datasets with a sufficient signal-to-noise ratio. While researchers have spent efforts to mitigate the effects of short-term phenomena in vibration-based SHM, the ultimate goal of this thesis is to exploit them and obtain valuable information on the structural health state. First, this thesis proposes strategies and algorithms for smart sensors operating individually or in a distributed computing framework to identify damage-sensitive features based on instantaneous modal parameters and influence lines. Ordinary traffic and people activities become essential sources of excitation, while human-powered vehicles, instrumented with smartphones, take the role of roving sensors in crowdsourced monitoring strategies. The technical and computational apparatus is optimized using in-memory computing technologies. Moreover, identifying additional local features can be particularly useful to support the damage assessment of complex structures. Thereby, smart coatings are studied to enable the self-sensing properties of ordinary structural elements. In this context, a machine-learning-aided tomography method is proposed to interpret the data provided by a nanocomposite paint interrogated electrically.

Evaluation of clinical implications correlate to genetic polymorphisms and pharmacokinetic of transdermal fentanyl

ABSTRACT Background:Strong opioids are the treatment of choice for moderate to severe cancer-related pain. Fentanyl is a synthetic opioid with high affinity for the μ-opioid receptor and is 75–100 times more potent than morphine. Fentanyl is metabolised rapidly, particularly in the liver and only 10% is excreted as intact substance. The use of CYP3A4 inhibitors and inducers, impaired liver function, and heating of the patch potentially influence fentanyl pharmacokinetics in a clinically relevant way. The influence of BMI and gender on fentanyl pharmacokinetics is questionable. Pharmacogenetic, may influence fentanyl pharmacokinetic and other factors have been studied but did not show significant and clinically relevant effects on fentanyl pharmacokinetic. Method: This is a biological interventional prospective, single-center study in 49 patients with solid or haematological neoplasm treated with transdermal fentanyl undergoing 5-step pharmacokinetic and pharmacogenetic withdrawals from administration of the fentanyl patch. Objective:to evaluate the pharmacokinetic and pharmacogenetic of transdermal fentanyl in relation to the patient's clinical response on pain Results: Sex was the only parameter with evidence of different distribution between responders and non-responders , showing a major chance for male to be responders than females. We found some correlation with pharmacokinetic parameters and sex, regarding adverse events and NRS correlation with BPI. NAT2 and UGT2B7 polymorphisms are associated with AUC and Cmax kinetics parameters, NAT2 and CYP4F2 showed some evidence of association with the fentanyl dosage and CYP2B6 polymorphism seemed to be correlate with side effects. Conclusion: Small sample size of study population make difficult do find some significant correlation between pharmacogenetic, pharmacokinetic and clinical response. Larger studies are needed to increase knowledge about response to opioid treatment in cancer patients to better individualized pain treatment.

Applied genomics to monitor the genetic diversity and integrity of honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations and define sustainable strategies to benefit the beekeeping sector

Honey bees are considered keystone species in ecosystem, the effect of harmful pesticides for the honey bees, the action of extreme climatic waves and their consequence on honey bees health can cause the loss of many colonies which could contribute to the reduction of the effective population size and incentive the use of non-autochthonous queens to replace dead colonies. Over the last decades, the use of non-ligustica bee subspecies in Italy has increased and together with the mentioned phenomena exposed native honey bees to hybridization, laeding to a dramatic loss of genetic erosion and admixture. Healthy genetic diversity within honey bee populations is critical to provide tolerance and resistance to current and future threatening. Nowadays it is urgent to design strategies for the conservation of local subspecies and their valorisation on a productive scale. In this Thesis we applied genomics tool for the analysis of the genetic diversity and the genomic integrity of honey bee populations in Italy are described. In this work mtDNA based methods are presented using honey bee DNA or honey eDNA as source of information of the genetic diversity of A. mellifera at different level. Taken together, the results derived from these studies should enlarge the knowledge of the genetic diversity and integrity of the honey bee populations in Italy, filling the gap of information necessary to design efficient conservation programmes. Furthermore, the methods presented in these works will provide a tool for the honey authentication to sustain and valorise beekeeping products and sector against frauds.

Three-dimensional structure of RK-1: A novel alpha-defensin peptide

NMR spectroscopy and simulated annealing calculations have been used to determine the three-dimensional structure of RK-1, an antimicrobial peptide from rabbit kidney recently discovered from homology screening based on the distinctive physicochemical properties of the corticostatins/defensins. RK-1 consists of 32 residues, including six cysteines arranged into three disulfide bonds. It exhibits antimicrobial activity against Escherichia coli and activates Ca2+ channels in vitro. Through its physicochemical similarity, identical cysteine spacing, and linkage to the corticostatins/defensins, it was presumed to be a member of this family. However, RK-1 lacks both a large number of arginines in the primary sequence and a high overall positive charge, which are characteristic of this family of peptides. The three-dimensional solution structure, determined by NMR, consists of a triple-stranded antiparallel beta -sheet and a series of turns and is similar to the known structures of other alpha -defensins. This has enabled the definitive classification of RK-1 as a member of this family of antimicrobial peptides. Ultracentrifuge measurements confirmed that like rabbit neutrophil defensins, RK-1 is monomeric in solution, in contrast to human neutrophil defensins, which are dimeric.