931 resultados para Future value prediction


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Objective To find a correlation between cerebral symptoms at birth and abnormalities found at anomaly scan, through the analysis of sensitivity of the anomaly scan in the prediction of severe CMV neonatal disease. Methods - Design, Setting, Population This was a retrospective collection of all cases of primary congenital CMV infection reported in our unit (Obstetrics and Perinatal Medicine, Policlinico di S Orsola, IRCSS, Bologna) over a period of 9 years (2013–2022). Only cases of fetal infection following confirmed maternal primary infection in the first trimester (MPI) and newborns with confirmed CMV infection on blood/saliva or urine were included. Results Between 2014 and 2022, 69 fetuses had an antenatal diagnosis of primary CMV infection. The infection occurred after MPI in the first, second, and third trimester in 63.7% (43/69), 27.5% (19/69), and 10% (7/69) of cases, respectively. Second-trimester assessment by anomaly scan was abnormal in 10/69 (15%) fetuses: 5/69 (7%) had an extracerebral STA and 5/69 (7%) had a cerebral STA. Normal anomaly scan was found in 59/69 (86%) fetuses. When looking at all fetuses infected in the first trimester, 12.5% (5/40) underwent TOP and 45% (18/40) had symptoms at birth. A mean follow-up of 22.4 months (range 12–48 months) was available for 68/69 (99%) live born neonates. Conclusion Anomaly scan results to have a predictive positive value of 67% fetuses infected in the first trimester. Serial assessment by ultrasound is necessary to predict the risk of sequelae occurring in 35% following fetal infection in the first trimester of pregnancy. This combined evaluation by US and trimester of infection should be useful when counselling on the prognosis of cCMV infection.

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New DNA-based predictive tests for physical characteristics and inference of ancestry are highly informative tools that are being increasingly used in forensic genetic analysis. Two eye colour prediction models: a Bayesian classifier - Snipper and a multinomial logistic regression (MLR) system for the Irisplex assay, have been described for the analysis of unadmixed European populations. Since multiple SNPs in combination contribute in varying degrees to eye colour predictability in Europeans, it is likely that these predictive tests will perform in different ways amongst admixed populations that have European co-ancestry, compared to unadmixed Europeans. In this study we examined 99 individuals from two admixed South American populations comparing eye colour versus ancestry in order to reveal a direct correlation of light eye colour phenotypes with European co-ancestry in admixed individuals. Additionally, eye colour prediction following six prediction models, using varying numbers of SNPs and based on Snipper and MLR, were applied to the study populations. Furthermore, patterns of eye colour prediction have been inferred for a set of publicly available admixed and globally distributed populations from the HGDP-CEPH panel and 1000 Genomes databases with a special emphasis on admixed American populations similar to those of the study samples.

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Negative-ion mode electrospray ionization, ESI(-), with Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) was coupled to a Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression and variable selection methods to estimate the total acid number (TAN) of Brazilian crude oil samples. Generally, ESI(-)-FT-ICR mass spectra present a power of resolution of ca. 500,000 and a mass accuracy less than 1 ppm, producing a data matrix containing over 5700 variables per sample. These variables correspond to heteroatom-containing species detected as deprotonated molecules, [M - H](-) ions, which are identified primarily as naphthenic acids, phenols and carbazole analog species. The TAN values for all samples ranged from 0.06 to 3.61 mg of KOH g(-1). To facilitate the spectral interpretation, three methods of variable selection were studied: variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least squares (iPLS) and elimination of uninformative variables (UVE). The UVE method seems to be more appropriate for selecting important variables, reducing the dimension of the variables to 183 and producing a root mean square error of prediction of 0.32 mg of KOH g(-1). By reducing the size of the data, it was possible to relate the selected variables with their corresponding molecular formulas, thus identifying the main chemical species responsible for the TAN values.

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To evaluate the correlation between neck circumference and insulin resistance and components of metabolic syndrome in adolescents with different adiposity levels and pubertal stages, as well as to determine the usefulness of neck circumference to predict insulin resistance in adolescents. Cross-sectional study with 388 adolescents of both genders from ten to 19 years old. The adolescents underwent anthropometric and body composition assessment, including neck and waist circumferences, and biochemical evaluation. The pubertal stage was obtained by self-assessment, and the blood pressure, by auscultation. Insulin resistance was evaluated by the Homeostasis Model Assessment-Insulin Resistance. The correlation between two variables was evaluated by partial correlation coefficient adjusted for the percentage of body fat and pubertal stage. The performance of neck circumference to identify insulin resistance was tested by Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve. After the adjustment for percentage body fat and pubertal stage, neck circumference correlated with waist circumference, blood pressure, triglycerides and markers of insulin resistance in both genders. The results showed that the neck circumference is a useful tool for the detection of insulin resistance and changes in the indicators of metabolic syndrome in adolescents. The easiness of application and low cost of this measure may allow its use in Public Health services.

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Ecological science contributes to solving a broad range of environmental problems. However, lack of ecological literacy in practice often limits application of this knowledge. In this paper, we highlight a critical but often overlooked demand on ecological literacy: to enable professionals of various careers to apply scientific knowledge when faced with environmental problems. Current university courses on ecology often fail to persuade students that ecological science provides important tools for environmental problem solving. We propose problem-based learning to improve the understanding of ecological science and its usefulness for real-world environmental issues that professionals in careers as diverse as engineering, public health, architecture, social sciences, or management will address. Courses should set clear learning objectives for cognitive skills they expect students to acquire. Thus, professionals in different fields will be enabled to improve environmental decision-making processes and to participate effectively in multidisciplinary work groups charged with tackling environmental issues.

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A method using the ring-oven technique for pre-concentration in filter paper discs and near infrared hyperspectral imaging is proposed to identify four detergent and dispersant additives, and to determine their concentration in gasoline. Different approaches were used to select the best image data processing in order to gather the relevant spectral information. This was attained by selecting the pixels of the region of interest (ROI), using a pre-calculated threshold value of the PCA scores arranged as histograms, to select the spectra set; summing up the selected spectra to achieve representativeness; and compensating for the superimposed filter paper spectral information, also supported by scores histograms for each individual sample. The best classification model was achieved using linear discriminant analysis and genetic algorithm (LDA/GA), whose correct classification rate in the external validation set was 92%. Previous classification of the type of additive present in the gasoline is necessary to define the PLS model required for its quantitative determination. Considering that two of the additives studied present high spectral similarity, a PLS regression model was constructed to predict their content in gasoline, while two additional models were used for the remaining additives. The results for the external validation of these regression models showed a mean percentage error of prediction varying from 5 to 15%.

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In this manuscript we briefly describe bipolar disorder (a depressive and manic mental disease), its classification, its effects on the patient, which sometimes include suicidal tendencies, and the drugs used for treatment. We also address the status quo with regard to diagnosis of bipolar disorder and recent advances in bioanalytical approaches for biomarker discovery. These approaches focus on blood samples (serum and plasma) and proteins as the main biomarker targets, and use various strategies for protein depletion. Strategies include use of commercially available kits or other homemade strategies and use of classical proteomics methods for protein identification based on bottom-up or top-down approaches, which used SELDI, ESI, or MALDI as sources for mass spectrometry, and up-to-date mass analyzers, for example Orbitrap. We also discuss some future objectives for treatment of this disorder and possible directions for the correct diagnosis of this still-unclear mental illness.

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BACKGROUND: The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was developed to predict short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis. There are few reports studying the correlation between MELD and long-term posttransplantation survival. AIM: To assess the value of pretransplant MELD in the prediction of posttransplant survival. METHODS: The adult patients (age >18 years) who underwent liver transplantation were examined in a retrospective longitudinal cohort of patients, through the prospective data base. We excluded acute liver failure, retransplantation and reduced or split-livers. The liver donors were evaluated according to: age, sex, weight, creatinine, bilirubin, sodium, aspartate aminotransferase, personal antecedents, brain death cause, steatosis, expanded criteria donor number and index donor risk. The recipients' data were: sex, age, weight, chronic hepatic disease, Child-Turcotte-Pugh points, pretransplant and initial MELD score, pretransplant creatinine clearance, sodium, cold and warm ischemia times, hospital length of stay, blood requirements, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT >1,000 UI/L = liver dysfunction). The Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test was used for the univariable analyses of posttransplant patient survival. For the multivariable analyses the Cox proportional hazard regression method with the stepwise procedure was used with stratifying sodium and MELD as variables. ROC curve was used to define area under the curve for MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh. RESULTS: A total of 232 patients with 10 years follow up were available. The MELD cutoff was 20 and Child-Turcotte-Pugh cutoff was 11.5. For MELD score > 20, the risk factors for death were: red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. For the patients with hyponatremia the risk factors were: negative delta-MELD score, red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. The regression univariated analyses came up with the following risk factors for death: score MELD > 25, blood requirements, recipient creatinine clearance pretransplant and age donor >50. After stepwise analyses, only red cell requirement was predictive. Patients with MELD score < 25 had a 68.86%, 50,44% and 41,50% chance for 1, 5 and 10-year survival and > 25 were 39.13%, 29.81% and 22.36% respectively. Patients without hyponatremia were 65.16%, 50.28% and 41,98% and with hyponatremia 44.44%, 34.28% and 28.57% respectively. Patients with IDR > 1.7 showed 53.7%, 27.71% and 13.85% and index donor risk <1.7 was 63.62%, 51.4% and 44.08%, respectively. Age donor > 50 years showed 38.4%, 26.21% and 13.1% and age donor <50 years showed 65.58%, 26.21% and 13.1%. Association with delta-MELD score did not show any significant difference. Expanded criteria donors were associated with primary non-function and severe liver dysfunction. Predictive factors for death were blood requirements, hyponatremia, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. CONCLUSION: In conclusion MELD over 25, recipient's hyponatremia, blood requirements, donor's sodium were associated with poor survival.

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Dahlstedtia Malme (Leguminosae) is a neotropical genus, native to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, and comprises two species, D. pinnata (Benth.) Malme and D. pentaphylla (Taub.) Burk., although it has been considered a monotypic genus by some authors. Leaf anatomy was compared to verify the presence of anatomical characters to help delimit species. Foliar primordium, leaflet, petiolule, petiole and pulvinus were collected from cultivated plants (Campinas, SP, Brazil) and from natural populations (Picinguaba, Ubatuba and Caraguatatuba, SP, Brazil - D. pinnata; Antonina, PR, Brazil - D. pentaphylla). Studies on leaflet surface assessment (Scanning Electron Microscopy), as well as histology and venation analyses were carried out of dehydrated, fresh and fixed material from two species. Leaflet material was macerated for stomatal counts. Histological sections, obtained by free-hand cut or microtome, were stained with Toluidine Blue, Safranin/Alcian Blue, Ferric Chloride, Acid Phloroglucin. Secretory cavities are present in the lamina, petiolule, petiole, pulvinus and leaf primordium in D. pentaphylla, but not in D. pinnata, and can be considered an important character for species diagnosis. Other leaf characters were uninformative in delimiting Dahlstedtia species. There is cambial activity in the petiolule, petiole and pulvinus. This study, associated with other available data, supports the recognition of two species in Dahlstedtia.

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Size distributions in woody plant populations have been used to assess their regeneration status, assuming that size structures with reverse-J shapes represent stable populations. We present an empirical approach of this issue using five woody species from the Cerrado. Considering count data for all plants of these five species over a 12-year period, we analyzed size distribution by: a) plotting frequency distributions and their adjustment to the negative exponential curve and b) calculating the Gini coefficient. To look for a relationship between size structure and future trends, we considered the size structures from the first census year. We analyzed changes in number over time and performed a simple population viability analysis, which gives the mean population growth rate, its variance and the probability of extinction in a given time period. Frequency distributions and the Gini coefficient were not able to predict future trends in population numbers. We recommend that managers should not use measures of size structure as a basis for management decisions without applying more appropriate demographic studies.

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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the positive predictive value for BI-RADS (Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System) categories 3, 4 and 5, correlating mammographic and histological diagnosis in non-palpable breast lesions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Analytical-descriptive study of 169 women submitted to stereotactic localization for surgical biopsy of non-palpable breast lesions. Mammographic and histological findings were correlated, analyzing the predictive positive value for each category. RESULTS: Forty-two (24.8%) cases were diagnosed with breast cancer - only one in category 3, 19 in category 4, and 22 in category 5. The positive predictive value for categories 3, 4A, 4B, 4C and 5 were, respectively, 3.4%, 10.3%, 11.3%, 36% and 91.7%. Microcalcifications were the most frequent finding related to malignancy, present in 61.5% of these cases. CONCLUSION: The present study has demonstrated that BI-RADS allows a safe prediction of high suspicion of malignancy in lesions category 5 and low suspicion for category 3. As regards the category 4, the positive predictive value has shown a progressive increase in subcategories A, B and C, demonstrating that this subclassification represents an invaluable contribution for a more detailed and accurate assessment of lesions suspicious for malignancy.

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física