Long range forecasts of the numbers of Helicoverpa punctigera and H-armigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia using the Southern Oscillation Index and the Sea Surface Temperature

The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hubner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6-15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

Soil carbon determination by high temperature combustion - A comparison with dichromate oxidation procedures and the influence of charcoal and carbonate carbon on the measured value

The measurement of organic carbon in soils has traditionally used dichromate oxidation procedures including the Wakley and Black and the Heanes methods. The measurement of carbon in soils by high temperature combustion is now widely used providing a rapid automated procedure without the use of toxic chemicals. This procedure however measures total carbon thus requiring some means of correction for soil samples containing carbonate and charcoal forms of carbon. This paper examines the effects of known additions of charcoal to a range of soil types on the results obtained by the Walkley and Black, Heanes and combustion methods. The results show, that while the charcoal carbon does not react under Walkley and Black conditions, some proportion does so with the Heanes method. A comparison of six Australian Soil and Plant Analysis Council reference soil samples by the three methods showed good agreement between the Heanes method, the combustion method and only slightly lower recoveries by the Walkley and Black procedure. Carbonate carbon will cause an overestimation of soil organic carbon by the combustion method thus requiring a separate determination of carbonate carbon to be applied as a correction. This work shows that a suitable acid pre-treatment of alkaline soils in the sample boats followed by a drying step eliminates the carbonate carbon prior to combustion and the need for an additional measurement. The measurement of carbon in soils by high temperature combustion in an oxygen atmosphere has been shown to be a rapid and reliable method capable of producing results in good agreement with one of the established dichromate oxidation procedures.

The interaction between the equity premium and the risk-free rate

The equity premium arises from the interaction between the atemporal risk premium for equity, the risk-free rate of intertemporal substitution and the impact of risk on the precautionary motive for saving. Depending on parameter values, the equity premium may either be increased or reduced by the presence of undiversifiable background risk. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Numerical modelling of single-layer folding: clarification of an issue regarding the possible effect of computer codes and the influence of initial irregularities

The influence of initial perturbation geometry and material propel-ties on final fold geometry has been investigated using finite-difference (FLAC) and finite-element (MARC) numerical models. Previous studies using these two different codes reported very different folding behaviour although the material properties, boundary conditions and initial perturbation geometries were similar. The current results establish that the discrepancy was not due to the different computer codes but due to the different strain rates employed in the two previous studies (i.e. 10(-6) s(-1) in the FLAC models and 10(-14) s(-1) in the MARC models). As a result, different parts of the elasto-viscous rheological field were bring investigated. For the same material properties, strain rate and boundary conditions, the present results using the two different codes are consistent. A transition in Folding behaviour, from a situation where the geometry of initial perturbation determines final fold shape to a situation where material properties control the final geometry, is produced using both models. This transition takes place with increasing strain rate, decreasing elastic moduli or increasing viscosity (reflecting in each case the increasing influence of the elastic component in the Maxwell elastoviscous rheology). The transition described here is mechanically feasible but is associated with very high stresses in the competent layer (on the order of GPa), which is improbable under natural conditions. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nitrogen dynamics and the physiological basis of stay-green in sorghum

Sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L,) Moench] hybrids containing the stay-green trait retain more photosynthetically active leaves under drought than do hybrids that do not contain this trait. Since the Longevity and photosynthetic capacity of a leaf are related to its N status, it is important to clarify the role of N in extending leaf greenness in stay-green hybrids. Field studies were conducted in northeastern Australia to examine the effect of three water regimes and nine hybrids on N uptake and partitioning among organs. Nine hybrids varying in the B35 and KS19 sources of stay-green were grown under a fully irrigated control, post-flowering water deficit, and terminal water deficit. For hybrids grown under terminal water deficit, stay-green was viewed as a consequence of the balance between N demand by the grain and N supply during gain filling. On the demand side, grain numbers were 16% higher in the four stay-green than in the five senescent hybrids. On the supply side, age-related senescence provided an average of 34 and 42 kg N ha(-1) for stay-green and senescent hybrids, respectively. In addition, N uptake during grain filling averaged 116 and 82 kg ha(-1) in stay-green and senescent hybrids. Matching the N supply from these two sources with grain N demand found that the shortfall in N supply for grain filling in the stay-green and senescent hybrids averaged 32 and 41 kg N ha(-1) resulting in more accelerated leaf senescence in the senescent hybrids. Genotypic differences in delayed onset and reduced rate of leaf senescence were explained by differences in specific leaf nitrogen and N uptake during grain filling. Leaf nitrogen concentration at anthesis was correlated with onset (r = 0.751**, n = 27) and rate (r = -0.783**, n = 27) of leaf senescence ender terminal water deficit.

Spectral tuning and the visual ecology of mantis shrimps

The compound eyes of mantis shrimps (stomatopod crustaceans) include an unparalleled diversity of visual pigments and spectral receptor classes in retinas of each species. We compared the visual pigment and spectral receptor classes of 12 species of gonodactyloid stomatopods from a variety of photo environments, from intertidal to deep water ( > 50 m), to learn how spectral tuning in the different photoreceptor types is modified within different photic environments. Results show that receptors of the peripheral photoreceptors, those outside the midband which are responsible for standard visual tasks such as spatial vision and motion detection, reveal the well-known pattern of decreasing lambda(max) with increasing depth. Receptors of midband rows 5 and 6, which are specialized for polarization vision, are similar in all species, having visual lambda(max)-values near 500 nm, independent of depth. Finally the spectral receptors of midband rows 1 to 4 are tuned for maximum coverage of the spectrum of irradiance available in the habitat of each species. The quality of the visual worlds experienced by each species we studied must vary considerably, but all appear to exploit the full capabilities offered by their complex visual systems.

Petrographic and isotope constraints on the origin of authigenic carbonate minerals and the associated fluid evolution in Late Permian coal measures, Bowen Basin (Queensland), Australia

Authigenic carbonate minerals are ubiquitous throughout the Late Permian coal measures of the Bowen Basin, Queensland, Australia. In the northern Bowen Basin, carbonates include the following assemblages: siderite I (delta O-18(SMOW) = +11.4 to + 17%, delta C-13(PDB) = - 5.3 to + 120), Fe-Mg calcite-ankerite-siderite II mineral association (delta O-18(SMOW) = +7.2 to + 10.20, delta C-13(PDB) = 10.9 to - 1.80 for ankerite) and a later calcite (delta O-18(SMOW) = +5.9 to + 14.60, delta C-13(PDB) = -11.4 to + 4.40). In the southern Bowen Basin, the carbonate phase consists only of calcite (delta O-18(SMOW) = +12.5 to + 14.80, delta C-13(PDB) = -19.4 to + 0.80), where it occurs extensively throughout all stratigraphic levels. Siderite I occurs in mudrocks and sandstones and predates all other carbonate minerals. This carbonate phase is interpreted to have formed as an early diagenetic mineral from meteoric waters under cold climate and reducing conditions. Fe-Mg calcite-ankerite-siderite Il occur in sandstones as replacement of volcanic rock fragments. Clay minerals (illite-smectite, chlorite and kaolinite) postdate Ca-Fe-Mg carbonates, and precipitation of the later calcite is associated with clay mineral formation. The Ca-Fe-Mg carbonates and later calcite of the northern Bowen Basin are regarded as having formed as a result of hydrothermal activity during the latest Triassic extensional tectonic event which affected this part of the basin, rather than deep burial diagenesis during the Middle to Late Triassic as previously reported. This hypothesis is based on the timing relationships of the authigenic mineral phases and the low delta O-18 values of ankerite and calcite, together with radiometric dating of illitic clays and recently published regional geological evidence. Following the precipitation of the Ca-Fe-Mg carbonates from strongly O-18-depleted meteoric-hydrothermal fluids, continuing fluid circulation and water-rock interaction resulted in dissolution of these carbonate phases as well as labile fragments of volcaniclastic rocks. Subsequently, the later calcite and day minerals precipitated from relatively evolved (O-18-enriched) fluids. The nearly uniform delta O-18 values of the southern Bowen Basin calcite have been attributed to very low water/rock ratio in the system, where the fluid isotropic composition was buffered by the delta O-18 values of rocks. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization of the acyl carrier protein gene and the fab gene locus in Xanthomonas albilineans

A genomic region containing the fatty acid biosynthetic (fab) genes was isolated from the sugarcane leaf-scald pathogen Xanthomonasalbilineans. The order and predicted products of fabG (beta -ketoacyl reductase), acpP (acyl carrier protein), fabF(ketoacyl synthase II) and downstream genes in X. albilineans are very similar to those in Escherichia coli, with one exception. Sequence analysis, confirmed by insertional knockout and specific substrate feeding experiments, shows that the position occupied by pabC (encoding aminodeoxychorismate lyase) in other bacteria is occupied instead by pabB (encoding aminodeoxychorismate synthase component I) in X. albilineans. Downstream of pabB, X. albilineans resumes the arrangement common to characterized Gram-negative bacteria, with three transcriptionally coupled genes, encoding an ORF340 protein of undefined function, thymidylate kinase and delta' subunit of DNA polymerase III holoenzyme (HolB). Different species may obtain a common advantage from coordinated regulation of the same biosynthetic pathways using different genes in this region. (C) 2000 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Tetraphyllidean metacestodes of teleosts of the Great Barrier Reef, and the use of in vitro cultivation to identify them

The tetraphyllidean metacestode diversity of 310 teleost fishes, including 87 species from 31 families, was examined from Heron Island, The Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Eleven metacestode 'types' were identified with the use of light microscopy. Host-specificity varied greatly among metacestode types. Incorporation of in vitro cultivation allowed generic identification for some types. Types 1 and 2 belong to Uncibilocularis Southwell, 1925, and have triloculate bothridia and one pair of Forked hooks with unequal prongs; Type 3 has quadriloculate bothridia. Hook development was insufficient to determine in which genus, Acanthobothrium van Beneden, 1849 or Calliobothrium van Beneden, 1850, this type may belong. Type 4 has unilocular bothridia with simple edges and belongs to Anthobothrium van Beneden, 1850. Type 5 has multiloculated bothridia which are invaginated within pouches. This type belongs to the Rhinebothriinae although its generic identity cannot be determined. The bothridia of Type 5 everted within 24 hours of in vitro cultivation and revealed the presence of two forms, one having 48 loculi per bothridium, the other 72 per bothridium. In vitro studies provide additional support for existing theories of onchobothriid scolex development.

Review of "Comorbidity, disability and the need for treatment for DSM-IV psychiatric disorders in an insured population"

Background: This study presents estimates of 12 month and current prevalences of DSM-IV disorders, and the related comor-bidity, disability and service utilization, derived from a national probability sample in Australia. Methods: The DSM-IV psychiatric disorders among persons aged 18 and over in the Australian population were assessed with data collected by lay interviewers using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, other screening interviews and measures of disability and service utilization. The response rate was 78.1% and the final sample size was 10,641 adults. Results: Close to 20% reported at least one twelve month disorder and 13% a disorder current within the past 30 days. ICD-10 diagnoses were also derived, DSM-IV was the more conservative classification whether or not the new clinical significance criteria was applied. Major depression, any personality disorder, and alcohol dependence were the three most common twelve month disorders, generalized anxiety disorder replaced alcohol dependence as the third most common current disorder. The sexes has similar rates of any disorder, but women had higher rates of affective and anxiety disorders, men higher rates of substance use disorders. Prevalence of most disorders declined with age and education, and were lower among those employed or married. Respondents whose symptoms met criteria for three or more disorders in the past year had greatly increased rates of disability and of mental health consultations. The affective and somatoform disorders were associated with the highest rates of disability. Only 36% of people with a mental disorder this year had consulted for a mental problem, and most had seen a general practitioner. We identified those with a current disorder who were disabled or multiply comorbid - only half had consulted and of those who had not, more than half said they did not need treatment. Conclusions: The 12 month prevalence was lower than reported in the US National Comorbidity Survey but method factors might account for this. The relationships between prevalence and demographic variables, and between comorbidity, disability and service utilization were similar to those found in the US survey. Australia has a national health insurance scheme with total coverage and access to medical help is available to all, commonly at little or no cost. We identify the high rate of not consulting among those with a current disorder, and additional disability or multiple comorbidity, as an important public health problem. Kessler argued for more research on barriers to professional help seeking. This report reinforces his conclusion and shows that economic barriers are not the dominant issue.