The revision of the Brazilian Forest Act: increased deforestation or a historic step towards balancing agricultural development and nature conservation?

Almost two-thirds of the Brazilian territory still has prevalence of natural vegetation. Although not all pristine, much of these areas have high conservation value. 170 million hectare (Mha) of the natural vegetation is located within Federal and State protected areas. Most of the remaining 367 Mha is on private agriculture lands, where the Forest Act is the most important legal framework for conservation. In July 2010, the Brazilian parliament began the analysis of a substitutive legislation for the Forest Act. The main motivations for the revision is that, on the one hand, it has been found ineffective in protecting natural vegetation, and on the other hand, it is perceived as a barrier against development in the agriculture sector. The substitutive Forest Act, as it presently stands, does not represent a balance between existing standpoints and objectives; it may drive development towards either more private protection through market-driven compensation actions, or increased deforestation and less nature protection/restoration. This article uses outcomes from modeling analyses to discuss weaknesses of the substitutive Forest Act and to suggest possible improvements. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parameter recovery for a skew-normal IRT model under a Bayesian approach: hierarchical framework, prior and kernel sensitivity and sample size

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is an interest in studying latent variables (or latent traits). Usually such latent traits are assumed to be random variables and a convenient distribution is assigned to them. A very common choice for such a distribution has been the standard normal. Recently, Azevedo et al. [Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 55 (2011), pp. 353-365] proposed a skew-normal distribution under the centred parameterization (SNCP) as had been studied in [R. B. Arellano-Valle and A. Azzalini, The centred parametrization for the multivariate skew-normal distribution, J. Multivariate Anal. 99(7) (2008), pp. 1362-1382], to model the latent trait distribution. This approach allows one to represent any asymmetric behaviour concerning the latent trait distribution. Also, they developed a Metropolis-Hastings within the Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm based on the density of the SNCP. They showed that the algorithm recovers all parameters properly. Their results indicated that, in the presence of asymmetry, the proposed model and the estimation algorithm perform better than the usual model and estimation methods. Our main goal in this paper is to propose another type of MHWGS algorithm based on a stochastic representation (hierarchical structure) of the SNCP studied in [N. Henze, A probabilistic representation of the skew-normal distribution, Scand. J. Statist. 13 (1986), pp. 271-275]. Our algorithm has only one Metropolis-Hastings step, in opposition to the algorithm developed by Azevedo et al., which has two such steps. This not only makes the implementation easier but also reduces the number of proposal densities to be used, which can be a problem in the implementation of MHWGS algorithms, as can be seen in [R.J. Patz and B.W. Junker, A straightforward approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for item response models, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(2) (1999), pp. 146-178; R. J. Patz and B. W. Junker, The applications and extensions of MCMC in IRT: Multiple item types, missing data, and rated responses, J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24(4) (1999), pp. 342-366; A. Gelman, G.O. Roberts, and W.R. Gilks, Efficient Metropolis jumping rules, Bayesian Stat. 5 (1996), pp. 599-607]. Moreover, we consider a modified beta prior (which generalizes the one considered in [3]) and a Jeffreys prior for the asymmetry parameter. Furthermore, we study the sensitivity of such priors as well as the use of different kernel densities for this parameter. Finally, we assess the impact of the number of examinees, number of items and the asymmetry level on the parameter recovery. Results of the simulation study indicated that our approach performed equally as well as that in [3], in terms of parameter recovery, mainly using the Jeffreys prior. Also, they indicated that the asymmetry level has the highest impact on parameter recovery, even though it is relatively small. A real data analysis is considered jointly with the development of model fitting assessment tools. The results are compared with the ones obtained by Azevedo et al. The results indicate that using the hierarchical approach allows us to implement MCMC algorithms more easily, it facilitates diagnosis of the convergence and also it can be very useful to fit more complex skew IRT models.

Computational framework to support integration of biomolecular and clinical data within a translational approach

Background The use of the knowledge produced by sciences to promote human health is the main goal of translational medicine. To make it feasible we need computational methods to handle the large amount of information that arises from bench to bedside and to deal with its heterogeneity. A computational challenge that must be faced is to promote the integration of clinical, socio-demographic and biological data. In this effort, ontologies play an essential role as a powerful artifact for knowledge representation. Chado is a modular ontology-oriented database model that gained popularity due to its robustness and flexibility as a generic platform to store biological data; however it lacks supporting representation of clinical and socio-demographic information. Results We have implemented an extension of Chado – the Clinical Module - to allow the representation of this kind of information. Our approach consists of a framework for data integration through the use of a common reference ontology. The design of this framework has four levels: data level, to store the data; semantic level, to integrate and standardize the data by the use of ontologies; application level, to manage clinical databases, ontologies and data integration process; and web interface level, to allow interaction between the user and the system. The clinical module was built based on the Entity-Attribute-Value (EAV) model. We also proposed a methodology to migrate data from legacy clinical databases to the integrative framework. A Chado instance was initialized using a relational database management system. The Clinical Module was implemented and the framework was loaded using data from a factual clinical research database. Clinical and demographic data as well as biomaterial data were obtained from patients with tumors of head and neck. We implemented the IPTrans tool that is a complete environment for data migration, which comprises: the construction of a model to describe the legacy clinical data, based on an ontology; the Extraction, Transformation and Load (ETL) process to extract the data from the source clinical database and load it in the Clinical Module of Chado; the development of a web tool and a Bridge Layer to adapt the web tool to Chado, as well as other applications. Conclusions Open-source computational solutions currently available for translational science does not have a model to represent biomolecular information and also are not integrated with the existing bioinformatics tools. On the other hand, existing genomic data models do not represent clinical patient data. A framework was developed to support translational research by integrating biomolecular information coming from different “omics” technologies with patient’s clinical and socio-demographic data. This framework should present some features: flexibility, compression and robustness. The experiments accomplished from a use case demonstrated that the proposed system meets requirements of flexibility and robustness, leading to the desired integration. The Clinical Module can be accessed in http://dcm.ffclrp.usp.br/caib/pg=iptrans webcite.

CoolBOT: a component-oriented programming framework for robotics

[EN] Programming software for controlling robotic systems in order to built working systems that perform adequately according to their design requirements remains being a task that requires an important development effort. Currently, there are no clear programming paradigms for programming robotic systems, and the programming techniques which are of common use today are not adequate to deal with the complexity associated with these systems. The work presented in this document describes a programming tool, concretely a framework, that must be considered as a first step to devise a tool for dealing with the complexity present in robotics systems. In this framework the software that controls a system is viewed as a dynamic network of units of execution inter-connected by means of data paths. Each one of these units of execution, called a component, is a port automaton which provides a given functionality, hidden behind an external interface specifying clearly which data it needs and which data it produces. Components, once defined and built, may be instantiated, integrated and used as many times as needed in other systems. The framework provides the infrastructure necessary to support this concept for components and the inter communication between them by means of data paths (port connections) which can be established and de-established dynamically. Moreover, and considering that the more robust components that conform a system are, the more robust the system is, the framework provides the necessary infrastructure to control and monitor the components than integrate a system at any given instant of time.

Wildfire frecasting using an open source 3D multilayer geographical framework

[EN] This abstract describes the development of a wildfire forecasting plugin using Capaware. Capaware is designed as an easy to use open source framework to develop 3D graphics applications over large geographic areas offering high performance 3D visualization and powerful interaction tools for the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) community.

Gender equality and human development in Macedonia during transition (1991-2006)

The present thesis treats the issue of gender equality in Macedonia during the period of transition from the socialist system to the one of parliamentary democracy. The main aim is to mainstream the gender perspective in the analysis of the transitional policies through the examination of the basic citizenship rights to which citizens are entitled and by the means of the evaluation of their capabilities to exercise these rights. Gender equality, as one of the main strongholds of the concept of human development is measured through the application of nine gender relevant capabilities in a Case study conducted within selected municipalities in the country. Through the analysis of the Macedonian constitutional and legal framework and the assessment of gender based inequalities, the research questions the need for the enactment of a process of engendering of citizenship, which would integrate gender based differences, contemplate the private sphere of citizens lives and pledge participation in the political life of the country. The thesis, finally, analyses the gender equality strategy of the Macedonian government with the purpose to evaluate whether it is context based, i.e. it tackles the main fields where inequalities emerge and in this context whether it envisages a process of engendering of citizenship.

Rural development and communication: a community media project in Uttar Pradesh (India)

Loaded with 16% of the world’s population, India is a challenged country. More than a third of its citizens live below the poverty line - on less than a dollar a day. These people have no proper electricity, no proper drinking water supply, no proper sanitary facilities and well over 40% are illiterates. More than 65% live in rural areas and 60% earn their livelihood from agriculture. Only a meagre 3.63% have access to telephone and less than 1% have access to a computer. Therefore, providing access to timely information on agriculture, weather, social, health care, employment, fishing, is of utmost importance to improve the conditions of rural poor. After some introductive chapters, whose function is to provide a comprehensive framework – both theoretical and practical – of the current rural development policies and of the media situation in India and Uttar Pradesh, my dissertation presents the findings of the pilot project entitled “Enhancing development support to rural masses through community media activity”, launched in 2005 by the Department of Mass Communication and Journalism of the Faculty of Arts of the University of Lucknow (U.P.) and by the local NGO Bharosa. The project scope was to involve rural people and farmers from two villages of the district of Lucknow (namely Kumhrava and Barhi Gaghi) in a three-year participatory community media project, based on the creation, implementation and use of a rural community newspaper and a rural community internet centre. Community media projects like this one have been rarely carried out in India because the country has no proper community media tradition: therefore the development of the project has been a challenge for the all stakeholders involved.

Entrepreneurial opportunities, capability development and the performance of new firms

This study aims at providing a theoretical framework encompassing the two approaches towards entrepreneurial opportunity (opportunity discovery and opportunity creation) by outlining a trajectory from firm creation to capability development, to firm performance in the short term (firm survival) and the medium/long term (growth rate). A set of empirically testable hypotheses is proposed and tested by performing qualitative analyses on interviews on a small sample of entrepreneurs and event history analysis on a large sample of firms founded in the United States in 2004.

Climate change and the tourism sector: the clean development mechanism, a market instrument under the Kyoto Protocol to achieve multiple objectives

The main objective of this research is to demonstrate that the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), an instrument created under a global international treaty, can achieve multiple objectives beyond those for which it has been established. As such, while being already a powerful tool to contribute to the global fight against climate change, the CDM can also be successful if applied to different sectors not contemplated before. In particular, this research aimed at demonstrating that a wider utilization of the CDM in the tourism sector can represent an innovative way to foster sustainable tourism and generate additional benefits. The CDM was created by Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and represents an innovative tool to reduce greenhouse gases emissions through the implementation of mitigation activities in developing countries which generate certified emission reductions (CERs), each of them equivalent to one ton of CO2 not emitted in the atmosphere. These credits can be used for compliance reasons by industrialized countries in achieving their reduction targets. The logic path of this research begins with an analysis of the scientific evidences of climate change and its impacts on different economic sectors including tourism and it continues with a focus on the linkages between climate and the tourism sector. Then, it analyses the international responses to the issue of climate change and the peculiar activities in the international arena addressing climate change and the tourism sector. The concluding part of the work presents the objectives and achievements of the CDM and its links to the tourism sector by considering case studies of existing projects which demonstrate that the underlying question can be positively answered. New opportunities for the tourism sector are available.

Development of a new galaxy classification technique and its application to the zCOSMOS survey

The purpose of this Thesis is to develop a robust and powerful method to classify galaxies from large surveys, in order to establish and confirm the connections between the principal observational parameters of the galaxies (spectral features, colours, morphological indices), and help unveil the evolution of these parameters from $z \sim 1$ to the local Universe. Within the framework of zCOSMOS-bright survey, and making use of its large database of objects ($\sim 10\,000$ galaxies in the redshift range $0 < z \lesssim 1.2$) and its great reliability in redshift and spectral properties determinations, first we adopt and extend the \emph{classification cube method}, as developed by Mignoli et al. (2009), to exploit the bimodal properties of galaxies (spectral, photometric and morphologic) separately, and then combining together these three subclassifications. We use this classification method as a test for a newly devised statistical classification, based on Principal Component Analysis and Unsupervised Fuzzy Partition clustering method (PCA+UFP), which is able to define the galaxy population exploiting their natural global bimodality, considering simultaneously up to 8 different properties. The PCA+UFP analysis is a very powerful and robust tool to probe the nature and the evolution of galaxies in a survey. It allows to define with less uncertainties the classification of galaxies, adding the flexibility to be adapted to different parameters: being a fuzzy classification it avoids the problems due to a hard classification, such as the classification cube presented in the first part of the article. The PCA+UFP method can be easily applied to different datasets: it does not rely on the nature of the data and for this reason it can be successfully employed with others observables (magnitudes, colours) or derived properties (masses, luminosities, SFRs, etc.). The agreement between the two classification cluster definitions is very high. ``Early'' and ``late'' type galaxies are well defined by the spectral, photometric and morphological properties, both considering them in a separate way and then combining the classifications (classification cube) and treating them as a whole (PCA+UFP cluster analysis). Differences arise in the definition of outliers: the classification cube is much more sensitive to single measurement errors or misclassifications in one property than the PCA+UFP cluster analysis, in which errors are ``averaged out'' during the process. This method allowed us to behold the \emph{downsizing} effect taking place in the PC spaces: the migration between the blue cloud towards the red clump happens at higher redshifts for galaxies of larger mass. The determination of $M_{\mathrm{cross}}$ the transition mass is in significant agreement with others values in literature.

Multi-level models and infrastructures for simulating biological system development

The hierarchical organisation of biological systems plays a crucial role in the pattern formation of gene expression resulting from the morphogenetic processes, where autonomous internal dynamics of cells, as well as cell-to-cell interactions through membranes, are responsible for the emergent peculiar structures of the individual phenotype. Being able to reproduce the systems dynamics at different levels of such a hierarchy might be very useful for studying such a complex phenomenon of self-organisation. The idea is to model the phenomenon in terms of a large and dynamic network of compartments, where the interplay between inter-compartment and intra-compartment events determines the emergent behaviour resulting in the formation of spatial patterns. According to these premises the thesis proposes a review of the different approaches already developed in modelling developmental biology problems, as well as the main models and infrastructures available in literature for modelling biological systems, analysing their capabilities in tackling multi-compartment / multi-level models. The thesis then introduces a practical framework, MS-BioNET, for modelling and simulating these scenarios exploiting the potential of multi-level dynamics. This is based on (i) a computational model featuring networks of compartments and an enhanced model of chemical reaction addressing molecule transfer, (ii) a logic-oriented language to flexibly specify complex simulation scenarios, and (iii) a simulation engine based on the many-species/many-channels optimised version of Gillespie’s direct method. The thesis finally proposes the adoption of the agent-based model as an approach capable of capture multi-level dynamics. To overcome the problem of parameter tuning in the model, the simulators are supplied with a module for parameter optimisation. The task is defined as an optimisation problem over the parameter space in which the objective function to be minimised is the distance between the output of the simulator and a target one. The problem is tackled with a metaheuristic algorithm. As an example of application of the MS-BioNET framework and of the agent-based model, a model of the first stages of Drosophila Melanogaster development is realised. The model goal is to generate the early spatial pattern of gap gene expression. The correctness of the models is shown comparing the simulation results with real data of gene expression with spatial and temporal resolution, acquired in free on-line sources.

Towards model driven software development for Arduino platforms: a DSL and automatic code generation

La tesi ha lo scopo di esplorare la produzione di sistemi software per Embedded Systems mediante l'utilizzo di tecniche relative al mondo del Model Driven Software Development. La fase più importante dello sviluppo sarà la definizione di un Meta-Modello che caratterizza i concetti fondamentali relativi agli embedded systems. Tale modello cercherà di astrarre dalla particolare piattaforma utilizzata ed individuare quali astrazioni caratterizzano il mondo degli embedded systems in generale. Tale meta-modello sarà quindi di tipo platform-independent. Per la generazione automatica di codice è stata adottata una piattaforma di riferimento, cioè Arduino. Arduino è un sistema embedded che si sta sempre più affermando perché coniuga un buon livello di performance ed un prezzo relativamente basso. Tale piattaforma permette lo sviluppo di sistemi special purpose che utilizzano sensori ed attuatori di vario genere, facilmente connessi ai pin messi a disposizione. Il meta-modello definito è un'istanza del meta-metamodello MOF, definito formalmente dall'organizzazione OMG. Questo permette allo sviluppatore di pensare ad un sistema sotto forma di modello, istanza del meta-modello definito. Un meta-modello può essere considerato anche come la sintassi astratta di un linguaggio, quindi può essere definito da un insieme di regole EBNF. La tecnologia utilizzata per la definizione del meta-modello è stata Xtext: un framework che permette la scrittura di regole EBNF e che genera automaticamente il modello Ecore associato al meta-modello definito. Ecore è l'implementazione di EMOF in ambiente Eclipse. Xtext genera inoltre dei plugin che permettono di avere un editor guidato dalla sintassi, definita nel meta-modello. La generazione automatica di codice è stata realizzata usando il linguaggio Xtend2. Tale linguaggio permette di esplorare l'Abstract Syntax Tree generato dalla traduzione del modello in Ecore e di generare tutti i file di codice necessari. Il codice generato fornisce praticamente tutta la schematic part dell'applicazione, mentre lascia all'application designer lo sviluppo della business logic. Dopo la definizione del meta-modello di un sistema embedded, il livello di astrazione è stato spostato più in alto, andando verso la definizione della parte di meta-modello relativa all'interazione di un sistema embedded con altri sistemi. Ci si è quindi spostati verso un ottica di Sistema, inteso come insieme di sistemi concentrati che interagiscono. Tale difinizione viene fatta dal punto di vista del sistema concentrato di cui si sta definendo il modello. Nella tesi viene inoltre introdotto un caso di studio che, anche se abbastanza semplice, fornisce un esempio ed un tutorial allo sviluppo di applicazioni mediante l'uso del meta-modello. Ci permette inoltre di notare come il compito dell'application designer diventi piuttosto semplice ed immediato, sempre se basato su una buona analisi del problema. I risultati ottenuti sono stati di buona qualità ed il meta-modello viene tradotto in codice che funziona correttamente.

Development of parallelizable flood inundation models for large scale analysis

Flood disasters are a major cause of fatalities and economic losses, and several studies indicate that global flood risk is currently increasing. In order to reduce and mitigate the impact of river flood disasters, the current trend is to integrate existing structural defences with non structural measures. This calls for a wider application of advanced hydraulic models for flood hazard and risk mapping, engineering design, and flood forecasting systems. Within this framework, two different hydraulic models for large scale analysis of flood events have been developed. The two models, named CA2D and IFD-GGA, adopt an integrated approach based on the diffusive shallow water equations and a simplified finite volume scheme. The models are also designed for massive code parallelization, which has a key importance in reducing run times in large scale and high-detail applications. The two models were first applied to several numerical cases, to test the reliability and accuracy of different model versions. Then, the most effective versions were applied to different real flood events and flood scenarios. The IFD-GGA model showed serious problems that prevented further applications. On the contrary, the CA2D model proved to be fast and robust, and able to reproduce 1D and 2D flow processes in terms of water depth and velocity. In most applications the accuracy of model results was good and adequate to large scale analysis. Where complex flow processes occurred local errors were observed, due to the model approximations. However, they did not compromise the correct representation of overall flow processes. In conclusion, the CA model can be a valuable tool for the simulation of a wide range of flood event types, including lowland and flash flood events.

The Effectiveness of the Clean Development Mechanism – A law and economics analysis

Climate change has been acknowledged as a threat to humanity. Most scholars agree that to avert dangerous climate change and to transform economies into low-carbon societies, deep global emission reductions are required by the year 2050. Under the framework of the Kyoto Protocol, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is the only market-based instrument that encourages industrialised countries to pursue emission reductions in developing countries. The CDM aims to pay the incremental finance necessary to operationalize emission reduction projects which are otherwise not financially viable. According to the objectives of the Kyoto Protocol, the CDM should finance projects that are additional to those which would have happened anyway, contribute to sustainable development in the countries hosting the projects, and be cost-effective. To enable the identification of such projects, an institutional framework has been established by the Kyoto Protocol which lays out responsibilities for public and private actors. This thesis examines whether the CDM has achieved these objectives in practice and can thus be considered an effective tool to reduce emissions. To complete this investigation, the book applies economic theory and analyses the CDM from two perspectives. The first perspective is the supply-dimension which answers the question of how, in practice, the CDM system identified additional, cost-effective, sustainable projects and, generated emission reductions. The main contribution of this book is the second perspective, the compliance-dimension, which answers the question of whether industrialised countries effectively used the CDM for compliance with their Kyoto targets. The application of the CDM in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is used as a case-study. Where the analysis identifies inefficiencies within the supply or the compliance dimension, potential improvements of the legal framework are proposed and discussed.

Spectroscopic studies on Cyclodextrin and Metal Organic Framework based potential nanovectors for delivery of Anticancer and Antiviral drugs

The aim of this work is to contribute to the development of new multifunctional nanocarriers for improved encapsulation and delivery of anticancer and antiviral drugs. The work focused on water soluble and biocompatible oligosaccharides, the cyclodextrins (CyDs), and a new family of nanostructured, biodegradable carrier materials made of porous metal-organic frameworks (nanoMOFs). The drugs of choice were the anticancer doxorubicin (DOX), azidothymidine (AZT) and its phosphate derivatives and artemisinin (ART). DOX possesses a pharmacological drawback due to its self-aggregation tendency in water. The non covalent binding of DOX to a series of CyD derivatives, such as g-CyD, an epichlorohydrin crosslinked b-CyD polymer (pb-CyD) and a citric acid crosslinked g-CyD polymer (pg-CyD) was studied by UV visible absorption, circular dichroism and fluorescence. Multivariate global analysis of multiwavelength data from spectroscopic titrations allowed identification and characterization of the stable complexes. pg-CyD proved to be the best carrier showing both high association constants and ability to monomerize DOX. AZT is an important antiretroviral drug. The active form is AZT-triphosphate (AZT-TP), formed in metabolic paths of low efficiency. Direct administration of AZT-TP is limited by its poor stability in biological media. So the development of suitable carriers is highly important. In this context we studied the binding of some phosphorilated derivatives to nanoMOFs by spectroscopic methods. The results obtained with iron(III)-trimesate nanoMOFs allowed to prove that the binding of these drugs mainly occurs by strong iono-covalent bonds to iron(III) centers. On the basis of these and other results obtained in partner laboratories, it was possible to propose this highly versatile and “green” carrier system for delivery of phosphorylated nucleoside analogues. The interaction of DOX with nanoMOFs was also studied. Finally the binding of the antimalarial drug, artemisinin (ART) with two cyclodextrin-based carriers,the pb-CyD and a light responsive bis(b-CyD) host, was also studied.