Estimation of the time of a linear trend in monitoring survival time

Change point estimation is recognized as an essential tool of root cause analyses within quality control programs as it enables clinical experts to search for potential causes of change in hospital outcomes more effectively. In this paper, we consider estimation of the time when a linear trend disturbance has occurred in survival time following an in-control clinical intervention in the presence of variable patient mix. To model the process and change point, a linear trend in the survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery is formulated using hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including the location and the slope size of the trend and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) control charts for different trend scenarios. In comparison with the alternatives, step change point model and built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the proposed Bayesian estimator over linear trends. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore

This article presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Bangalore, South India. Analyses have been carried out considering the seismotectonic parameters of the region covering a radius of 350 km keeping Bangalore as the center. Seismic hazard parameter `b' has been evaluated considering the available earthquake data using (1) Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) relationship and (2) Kijko and Sellevoll (1989, 1992) method utilizing extreme and complete catalogs. The `b' parameter was estimated to be 0.62 to 0.98 from G-R relation and 0.87 +/- A 0.03 from Kijko and Sellevoll method. The results obtained are a little higher than the `b' values published earlier for southern India. Further, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore region has been carried out considering six seismogenic sources. From the analysis, mean annual rate of exceedance and cumulative probability hazard curve for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) have been generated. The quantified hazard values in terms of the rock level peak ground acceleration (PGA) are mapped for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on a grid size of 0.5 km x 0.5 km. In addition, Uniform Hazard Response Spectrum (UHRS) at rock level is also developed for the 5% damping corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) value of 0.121 g obtained from the present investigation is slightly lower (but comparable) than the PGA values obtained from the deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) for the same area. However, the PGA value obtained in the current investigation is higher than PGA values reported in the global seismic hazard assessment program (GSHAP) maps of Bhatia et al. (1999) for the shield area.

Evaluation of CaO-CeO2-partially stabilized zirconia thermal barrier coatings

Plasma sprayable powders were prepared from ZrO2-CaO-CeO2 system using an organic binder and coated onto stainless steel substrates previously coated by a bond coat (Ni 22Cr 20Al 1.0Y) using plasma spraying. The coatings exhibited good thermal barrier characteristics and excellent resistance to thermal shock at 1000 degrees C under simulated laboratory conditions (90 half hour cycles without failure) and at 1200 degrees C under accelerated burner rig test conditions (500 2 min cycles without failure). No destabilization of cubic/tetragonal ZrO2 phase fraction occured either during the long hours (45 h cumulative) or the large number of thermal shock tests. Growth of a distinct SiO2 rich region within the ceramic was observed in the specimens thermal shock cycled at 1000 degrees C apart from mild oxidation of the bond coat. The specimens tested at 1200 degrees C had a glassy appearance on the top surface and exhibited severe oxidation of the bond coat at the ceramic-bond coat interface. The glassy appearance of the surface is due to the formation of a liquid silicate layer attributable to the impurity phase present in commercial grade ZrO2 powder. These observations are supported by SEM analysis and quantitative EDAX data.

Fatigue Laws Via Functional Equations

In routine industrial design, fatigue life estimation is largely based on S-N curves and ad hoc cycle counting algorithms used with Miner's rule for predicting life under complex loading. However, there are well known deficiencies of the conventional approach. Of the many cumulative damage rules that have been proposed, Manson's Double Linear Damage Rule (DLDR) has been the most successful. Here we follow up, through comparisons with experimental data from many sources, on a new approach to empirical fatigue life estimation (A Constructive Empirical Theory for Metal Fatigue Under Block Cyclic Loading', Proceedings of the Royal Society A, in press). The basic modeling approach is first described: it depends on enforcing mathematical consistency between predictions of simple empirical models that include indeterminate functional forms, and published fatigue data from handbooks. This consistency is enforced through setting up and (with luck) solving a functional equation with three independent variables and six unknown functions. The model, after eliminating or identifying various parameters, retains three fitted parameters; for the experimental data available, one of these may be set to zero. On comparison against data from several different sources, with two fitted parameters, we find that our model works about as well as the DLDR and much better than Miner's rule. We finally discuss some ways in which the model might be used, beyond the scope of the DLDR.

Implicit and multigrid procedures for steady-state computations with upwind algorithms

A computational study for the convergence acceleration of Euler and Navier-Stokes computations with upwind schemes has been conducted in a unified framework. It involves the flux-vector splitting algorithms due to Steger-Warming and Van Leer, the flux-difference splitting algorithms due to Roe and Osher and the hybrid algorithms, AUSM (Advection Upstream Splitting Method) and HUS (Hybrid Upwind Splitting). Implicit time integration with line Gauss-Seidel relaxation and multigrid are among the procedures which have been systematically investigated on an individual as well as cumulative basis. The upwind schemes have been tested in various implicit-explicit operator combinations such that the optimal among them can be determined based on extensive computations for two-dimensional flows in subsonic, transonic, supersonic and hypersonic flow regimes. In this study, the performance of these implicit time-integration procedures has been systematically compared with those corresponding to a multigrid accelerated explicit Runge-Kutta method. It has been demonstrated that a multigrid method employed in conjunction with an implicit time-integration scheme yields distinctly superior convergence as compared to those associated with either of the acceleration procedures provided that effective smoothers, which have been identified in this investigation, are prescribed in the implicit operator.

Memory of past random wave conditions in submarine groundwater discharge

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is an integral part of the hydrological cycle and represents an important aspect of land-ocean interactions. We used a numerical model to simulate flow and salt transport in a nearshore groundwater aquifer under varying wave conditions based on yearlong random wave data sets, including storm surge events. The results showed significant flow asymmetry with rapid response of influxes and retarded response of effluxes across the seabed to the irregular wave conditions. While a storm surge immediately intensified seawater influx to the aquifer, the subsequent return of intruded seawater to the sea, as part of an increased SGD, was gradual. Using functional data analysis, we revealed and quantified retarded, cumulative effects of past wave conditions on SGD including the fresh groundwater and recirculating seawater discharge components. The retardation was characterized well by a gamma distribution function regardless of wave conditions. The relationships between discharge rates and wave parameters were quantifiable by a regression model in a functional form independent of the actual irregular wave conditions. This statistical model provides a useful method for analyzing and predicting SGD from nearshore unconfined aquifers affected by random waves

An extended regression approach to estimating loads and their uncertainties in Great Barrier Reef catchments

There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates by minimizing the biases and making use of possible predictive variables. The load estimation procedure can be summarized by the following four steps: - (i) output the flow rates at regular time intervals (e.g. 10 minutes) using a time series model that captures all the peak flows; - (ii) output the predicted flow rates as in (i) at the concentration sampling times, if the corresponding flow rates are not collected; - (iii) establish a predictive model for the concentration data, which incorporates all possible predictor variables and output the predicted concentrations at the regular time intervals as in (i), and; - (iv) obtain the sum of all the products of the predicted flow and the predicted concentration over the regular time intervals to represent an estimate of the load. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized regression (rating-curve) approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, namely the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and cumulative discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. The model also has the capacity to accommodate autocorrelation in model errors which are the result of intensive sampling during floods. Incorporating this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach using the concentrations of total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) and gauged flow data from the Burdekin River, a catchment delivering to the Great Barrier Reef. The sampling biases for NOx concentrations range from 2 to 10 times indicating severe biases. As we expect, the traditional average and extrapolation methods produce much higher estimates than those when bias in sampling is taken into account.

A revisit to Pope's cohort analysis

Gulland's [Gulland, J.A., 1965. Estimation of mortality rates. Annex to Arctic Fisheries Working Group Report (meeting in Hamburg, January 1965). ICES. C.M. 1965, Doc. No. 3 (mimeographed)] virtual population analysis (VPA) is commonly used for studying the dynamics of harvested fish populations. However, it necessitates the solving of a nonlinear equation for the instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish in a population. Pope [Pope, J.G., 1972. An investigation of the accuracy of Virtual Population Analysis using cohort analysis. ICNAF Res. Bull. 9, 65-74. Also available in D.H. Cushing (ed.) (1983), Key Papers on Fish Populations, p. 291-301, IRL Press, Oxford, 405 p.] eliminated this necessity in his cohort analysis by approximating its underlying age- and time-dependent population model. His approximation has since become one of the most commonly used age- and time-dependent fish population models in fisheries science. However, some of its properties are not well understood. For example, many assert that it describes the dynamics of a fish population, from which the catch of fish is taken instantaneously in the middle of the year. Such an assertion has never been proven, nor has its implied instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish of a particular age at a particular time been examined, nor has its implied catch equation been derived from a general catch equation. In this paper, we prove this assertion, examine its implied instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish of a particular age at a particular time, derive its implied catch equation from a general catch equation, and comment on how to structure an age- and time-dependent population model to ensure its internal consistency. This work shows that Gulland's (1965) virtual population analysis and Pope's (1972) cohort analysis lie at the opposite end of a continuous spectrum as a general model for a seasonally occurring fishery; Pope's (1972) approximation implies an infinitely large instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish of a particular age at a particular time in a fishing season of zero length; and its implied catch equation has an undefined instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish in a population, but a well-defined cumulative instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish in the population. This work also highlights a need for a more careful treatment of the times of start and end of a fishing season in fish population models.

Les formes d’adresse dans un corpus de films français et leur traduction en finnois

The use of forms of address in French films and their Finnish translations The use of forms of address constitutes an integral part of speakers’ communicative competence. In fact, they are not only used to assign to whom the speech is addressed, but also to construct the relationship between speakers. However, the choice of a suitable form is not necessarily evident in modern, pluralistic society. By the notion form of address, I refer to pronouns of address (tu vs. vous) and different nouns of address like names, titles (Monsieur, Madame, Mademoiselle), kinship terms, occupational terms, terms of endearment and insults. The purpose of the present thesis is, first, to study the semantic and pragmatic values of forms of address in dialogues of modern French films, and, second, their translation in Finnish subtitles. It is evident that film language is not spontaneous, but only a representation of authentic speech, and that subtitles are a written version of the original spoken language. Consequently, this thesis studies spoken fictive dialogues and their written translations. The methods applied in the study are the Interactional and Pragmatic Approach as well as Translatology. The role of forms of address in an interpersonal relationship is studied with dimensions of distance and power (Brown and Gilman 1960, Kerbrat-Orecchioni 1992), whereas the pragmatic dimension permits studying in particular the use of forms of address in speech acts (Kerbrat-Orecchioni 2001). The translation strategies are studied with the help of Venuti’s (1995) notions of foreignizing and domesticating strategies. The results of the thesis suggest that the pronoun use in the studied films is usually reciprocal. However, the relations of power have not disappeared, but are expressed in a more discrete manner with nouns of address (for instance vous + Docteur vs. vous + Anita). The use of the pronoun of address vous seems still to be common, but increased intimacy is expressed by accompanying familiar nouns of address like first names. The nominal forms of address accompany different speech acts, but not in a systematic manner. In a dialogue they appear usually in the first speech act, and more rarely in the response, but not in both. In addition, they have an important role in the mechanics of conversation. The translators here face multiple demands, and their translations seem mostly to be a compromise between foreignizing and domesticating strategies.

Grammar and disciplinary culture : a corpus-based study

The present study provides a usage-based account of how three grammatical structures, declarative content clauses, interrogative content clause and as-predicative constructions, are used in academic research articles. These structures may be used in both knowledge claims and citations, and they often express evaluative meanings. Using the methodology of quantitative corpus linguistics, I investigate how the culture of the academic discipline influences the way in which these constructions are used in research articles. The study compares the rates of occurrence of these grammatical structures and investigates their co-occurrence patterns in articles representing four different disciplines (medicine, physics, law, and literary criticism). The analysis is based on a purpose-built 2-million-word corpus, which has been part-of-speech tagged. The analysis demonstrates that the use of these grammatical structures varies between disciplines, and further shows that the differences observed in the corpus data are linked with differences in the nature of knowledge and the patterns of enquiry. The constructions in focus tend to be more frequently used in the soft disciplines, law and literary criticism, where their co-occurrence patterns are also more varied. This reflects both the greater variety of topics discussed in these disciplines, and the higher frequency of references to statements made by other researchers. Knowledge-building in the soft fields normally requires a careful contextualisation of the arguments, giving rise to statements reporting earlier research employing the constructions in focus. In contrast, knowledgebuilding in the hard fields is typically a cumulative process, based on agreed-upon methods of analysis. This characteristic is reflected in the structure and contents of research reports, which offer fewer opportunities for using these constructions.

Murtuva säätyvalta, kestävä eliitti : Senaattori Lennart Gripenbergin sukupiiri ja sääty-yhteiskunnan muodonmuutos

This study examines the transformation of the society of estates in the Finnish Grand Duchy through the case study of Senator Lennart Gripenberg and his family circle. While national borders and state structures changed, the connections between old ruling elite families remained intact as invisible family networks, ownership relations, economic collaboration and power of military families. These were the cornerstones of trust, which helped to strengthen positions gained in society. Also, these connections often had a central if unperceivable impact on social development and modernization. Broadly speaking, the intergenerational social reproduction made it possible for this network of connections to remain in power and, as an imperceptible factor, also influenced short-term developments in the long run. Decisions which in the short term appeared unproductive, would in the long run produce cumulative immaterial and material capital across generations as long-term investments. Social mobility, then, is a process which clearly takes several generations to become manifest. The study explores long-term strategies of reproducing and transferring the capital accumulated in multinational elite networks. Also, what was the relationship of these strategies to social change? For the representatives of the military estate the nobility and for those men of the highest estates who had benefited from military training, this very education of a technical-military nature was the key to steering, controlling and dealing with the challenges following the industrial breakthrough. The disintegration of the society of estates and the rising educational standards also increased the influence of those professionals previously excluded, which served to intensify competition for positions of power. The family connections highlighted in this study overlapped in many ways, working side by side and in tandem to manage the economic and political life in Finland, Russia and Sweden. The analysis of these ties has opened up a new angle to economic co-operation, for example, as seen in the position of such family networks not only in Finnish, but also Swedish and Russian corporations and in the long historical background of the collaboration. This also highlights in a new way the role of women in transferring the cumulative social capital and as silent business partners. The marriage strategies evident in business life clearly had an impact on the economic life. The collaborative networks which transcended generations, national boundaries and structures also uncover, as far as the elites are concerned, serious problems in comparative studies conducted from purely national premises. As the same influential families and persons in effect held several leading positions in society, the line would blur between public and invisible uses of power. The power networks thus aimed to build monopolies to secure their key positions at the helm. This study therefore examines the roles of Lennart Gripenberg senator, business executive, superintendent of the Department of Industry, factory inspector, and founding member of industrial interest groups as part of the reproduction strategies of the elite. The family and other networks of the powerful leaders of society, distinguished by social, economic and cultural capital, provided a solid backdrop for the so-called old elites in their quest for strategies to reproducing power in a changing world. Crucially, it was easier for the elites to gain expertise to steer the modernization process and thereby secure for the next generation a leading position in society, something that they traditionally, too, had had the greatest interest in.

Recruitment and loss of juvenile stages of Helicoverpa spp. (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on contaminant plants in chickpea crops

The hypothesis that contaminant plants growing amongst chickpea serve as Helicoverpa sinks by diverting oviposition pressure away from the main crop was tested under field conditions. Gain (recruitment) and loss (presumed mortality) of juvenile stages of Helicoverpa spp. on contaminant faba bean and wheat plants growing in chickpea plots were quantified on a daily basis over a 12-d period. The possibility of posteclosion movement of larvae from the contaminants to the surrounding chickpea crop was examined. Estimated total loss of the census population varied from 80 to 84% across plots and rows. The loss of brown eggs (40–47%) contributed most to the overall loss estimate, followed by loss of white eggs (27–35%) and larvae (6–9%). The cumulative number of individuals entering the white and brown egg and larval stages over the census period ranged from 15 to 58, 10–48 and 1–6 per m row, respectively. The corresponding estimates of mean stage-specific loss, expressed as a percentage of individuals entering the stage, ranged from 52 to 57% for white eggs, 87–108% for brown eggs and 71–87% for first-instar larvae. Mean larval density on chickpea plants in close proximity to the contaminant plants did not exceed the baseline larval density on chickpea further away from the contaminants across rows and plots. The results support the hypothesis that contaminant plants in chickpea plots serve as Helicoverpa sinks by diverting egg pressure from the main crop and elevating mortality of juvenile stages. Deliberate contamination of chickpea crops with other plant species merits further investigation as a cultural pest management strategy for Helicoverpa spp.

Piggery pond sludge as a nitrogen source for crops. 1. Mineral N supply estimated from laboratory incubations and field application of stockpiled and wet sludge

Piggery pond sludge (PPS) was applied, as-collected (Wet PPS) and following stockpiling for 12 months (Stockpiled PPS), to a sandy Sodosol and clay Vertosol at sites on the Darling Downs of Queensland. Laboratory measures of N availability were carried out on unamended and PPS-amended soils to investigate their value in estimating supplementary N needs of crops in Australia's northern grains region. Cumulative net N mineralised from the long-term (30 weeks) leached aerobic incubation was described by a first-order single exponential model. The mineralisation rate constant (0.057/week) was not significantly different between Control and PPS treatments or across soil types, when the amounts of initial mineral N applied in PPS treatments were excluded. Potentially mineralisable N (No) was significantly increased by the application of Wet PPS, and increased with increasing rate of application. Application of Wet PPS significantly increased the total amount of inorganic N leached compared with the Control treatments. Mineral N applied in Wet PPS contributed as much to the total mineral N status of the soil as did that which mineralised over time from organic N. Rates of C02 evolution during 30 weeks of aerobic leached incubation indicated that the Stockpiled PPS was more stabilised (19-28% of applied organic C mineralised) than the WetPPS (35-58% of applied organic C mineralised), due to higher lignin content in the former. Net nitrate-N produced following 12 weeks of aerobic non-leached incubation was highly correlated with net nitrate-N leached during 12 weeks of aerobic incubation (R^2 = 0.96), although it was <60% of the latter in both sandy and clayey soils. Anaerobically mineralisable N determined by waterlogged incubation of laboratory PPS-amended soil samples increased with increasing application rate of Wet PPS. Anaerobically minemlisable N from field-moist soil was well correlated with net N mineralised during 30 weeks of aerobic leached incubation (R^2 =0.90 sandy soil; R^2=0.93 clay soil). In the clay soil, the amount of mineral N produced from all the laboratory incubations was significantly correlated with field-measured nitrate-N in the soil profile (0-1.5 m depth) after 9 months of weed-free fallow following PPS application. In contrast, only anaerobic mineralisable N was significantly correlated with field nitrate-N in the sandy soil. Anaerobic incubation would, therefore, be suitable as a rapid practical test to estimate potentially mineralisable N following applications of different PPS materials in the field.

"The last egg in the basket?" Elderly primiparity: A review of findings

The recent trend of later childbearing among primiparous women is examined with attention to its possible motivations and how they might relate to maternal and infant outcomes. The influence of psychological factors is examined in the context of the inconsistencies in the obstetric literature regarding the risk factors associated with advancing maternal age. An interplay of psychological and biologic factors in determining the outcome of pregnancy and adaptation to motherhood in elderly primiparous women is proposed in terms of the compensatory as opposed to cumulative effect of psychological factors. The adoption of a broad perspective in the study of the experience of later motherhood is recommended as the direction for future research.

Understanding how axial loads on the spine influence segmental biomechanics for idiopathic scoliosis patients: A magnetic resonance imaging study

Background Segmental biomechanics of the scoliotic spine are important since the overall spinal deformity is comprised of the cumulative coronal and axial rotations of individual joints. This study investigates the coronal plane segmental biomechanics for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients in response to physiologically relevant axial compression. Methods Individual spinal joint compliance in the coronal plane was measured for a series of 15 idiopathic scoliosis patients using axially loaded magnetic resonance imaging. Each patient was first imaged in the supine position with no axial load, and then again following application of an axial compressive load. Coronal plane disc wedge angles in the unloaded and loaded configurations were measured. Joint moments exerted by the axial compressive load were used to derive estimates of individual joint compliance. Findings The mean standing major Cobb angle for this patient series was 46°. Mean intra-observer measurement error for endplate inclination was 1.6°. Following loading, initially highly wedged discs demonstrated a smaller change in wedge angle, than less wedged discs for certain spinal levels (+ 2,+1,− 2 relative to the apex, (p < 0.05)). Highly wedged discs were observed near the apex of the curve, which corresponded to lower joint compliance in the apical region. Interpretation While individual patients exhibit substantial variability in disc wedge angles and joint compliance, overall there is a pattern of increased disc wedging near the curve apex, and reduced joint compliance in this region. Approaches such as this can provide valuable biomechanical data on in vivo spinal biomechanics of the scoliotic spine, for analysis of deformity progression and surgical planning.