Multi-layer radial basis function networks: an extension to the radial basis function

This paper presents the initial research carried out into a new neural network called the multilayer radial basis function network (MRBF). The network extends the radial basis function (RBF) in a similar way to that in which the multilayer perceptron extends the perceptron. It is hoped that by connecting RBFs together in a layered fashion, an equivalent increase in ability can be gained, as is gained from using MLPs instead of single perceptrons. The results of a practical comparison between individual RBFs and MRBF's are also given.

Measuring the impact of observations on the predictability of the Kuroshio Extension in a shallow-water model

In this paper sequential importance sampling is used to assess the impact of observations on a ensemble prediction for the decadal path transitions of the Kuroshio Extension (KE). This particle filtering approach gives access to the probability density of the state vector, which allows us to determine the predictive power — an entropy based measure — of the ensemble prediction. The proposed set-up makes use of an ensemble that, at each time, samples the climatological probability distribution. Then, in a post-processing step, the impact of different sets of observations is measured by the increase in predictive power of the ensemble over the climatological signal during one-year. The method is applied in an identical-twin experiment for the Kuroshio Extension using a reduced-gravity shallow water model. We investigate the impact of assimilating velocity observations from different locations during the elongated and the contracted meandering state of the KE. Optimal observations location correspond to regions with strong potential vorticity gradients. For the elongated state the optimal location is in the first meander of the KE. During the contracted state of the KE it is located south of Japan, where the Kuroshio separates from the coast.