Syria: A Roadmap for a Sustainable Political Settlement. Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 52, January 2014

On the eve of the Geneva II conference and amid continued fighting on the ground, this short paper seeks to draw up a roadmap, indicating the different stages and steps on the way to a sustainable political settlement of the conflict in Syria. A longer term perspective is put forward, adopting a broad-based and inclusive approach, focused on a Syrian-led transition process under international supervision with the assistance of key third countries, thus preparing the way for a multi-party democratic post-Baath future.

Combating corruption in Ukraine – the beginning of a long march. OSW COMMENTARY Number 170, 06.05.2015

From a public opinion point of view, corruption has been the gravest problem of today’s Ukraine, excepting the armed conflict in the east of the country. The government might be able to delay certain key reforms such as the constitutional reform or the reform of local government structures, however, without stepping up measures to combat corruption they would face the risk of losing social support which has already been weak. There is no single strategy for combating corruption in Ukraine. What has been implemented is a series of often contradictory concepts and actions (initiated by the president’s office, the government, civil society institutions, or launched to meet the requirements of donors). The successes of the new government have included efforts aimed at fighting corruption at the middle level of government and the introduction of legislative changes in compliance with international practice. The main weaknesses, on the other hand, have been the lack of efficient mechanisms to implement the adopted legislation to ensure that an individual charged with corruption (regardless of political connections) could be effectively tried and the money received as bribery could be returned to the state. Similarly, the judiciary system has not been prepared to actively handle corruption cases.

The War republics in the Donbas one year after the outbreak of the conflict. OSW Commentary Number 174, 17 June 2015

More than one year since the first pro-Russian moves in the Donbas, separatists have taken control of parts of the Donbas and Luhansk oblasts but are still unable to form truly functioning administrative structures. The exercise of power by the central administration of the so-called ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ (DPR) and ‘Luhansk People’s Republic’ (LPR) is restricted to resolving problems as they arise, while administration proper is the prerogative of the local authorities reporting to them which had been performing this function before the conflict broke out. The way the situation is developing and the fact that access to information is restricted make it difficult to determine the structure of the separatist government in more detail, precisely how it is organised, and what the internal hierarchy is like. The overriding goal of the governments of the DPR and the LPR is to maintain and develop their military potential. In effect, the lives of the so-called republics are subordinate to military goals. The Donbas separatism is a conglomerate of different groups of interests, with Russia at the fulcrum. Its representatives set the main tactical and strategic goals and thus have a decisive influence on the development of the situation in the region. Individual separatist groupings come into conflict, and some oligarchs linked to the former Party of Regions circles have also been making attempts to maintain their influence. The struggle between individual groups of interest is intensifying as the situation on the war front becomes calmer. Since the situation has temporarily stabilised after the seizure of Debaltseve, the central governments of the DPR and the LPR have made attempts to expand their influence, combating armed criminals who are outside their control and that of Russia. The civilian population is taking the brunt of the devastation caused by the war and the increasing militarisation of the region. Despite the fact that the intensity of the fighting on the war front is falling, worsening humanitarian problems are causing refugees to continue their flight from the territories controlled by the separatists. 2 million people have fled the conflict zone since the beginning of the war: 1.3 million of them have found shelter in other regions of Ukraine, and more than 700,000 have left for Russia. The region has also sustained great economic losses – most mines have been either destroyed or closed, many industrial plants have restricted or completely discontinued their production, and many firms have been taken over by force. In effect, the region has seen an economic downturn.

Controlled ‘Europeanisation’? The KMW–Nexter merger and the Germany’s new strategy for the arms industry. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 180/26.08.2015

On 29 July a deal was signed in Paris concerning a merger between Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW), Germany’s largest manufacturer of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and artillery systems, and its French counterpart Nexter. The new holding formed as a result of the merger will be Europe’s largest producer of arms systems for land forces, comparable to the Airbus Group in the aerospace industry. While work on finalising the merger was underway, the German government was developing a new strategy for Germany’s arms industry, which was published on 9 June 2015. The strategy’s provisions show that German politicians, despite holding negative opinions on previous mergers between German arms companies and foreign businesses, have concluded that consolidation at the European level is nonetheless the only way to go. However, the strategy also states that the German government should exercise more influence than previously on the terms and conditions of any such consolidation. To this end, it identified key national technologies which will be supported and protected through various instruments, including also the conclusion of intergovernmental agreements on strategic defence co-operation. Such agreements may regulate questions such as the ownership structures of the new companies, the locations for developing technologies and for manufacturing products, subcontractors and exports of jointly developed arms and military equipment. In relation to the KMW–Nexter merger, such a deal between France and Germany is expected to be signed this autumn.

Strengthening the beating heart of the European economy. EPC Commentary, 29 September 2015

In an atmosphere of crisis, distrust and fragmentation, policy-makers in Brussels are mostly focused on fighting fire without having an ambitious vision for the future – in effect, muddling through, as has been the characteristic response in recent years. However, by remaining in crisis response mode, the European Union (EU) is failing to provide the basis for the compromise politics that can get the European system out of the current impasse: the EU needs to be engaged in a positive sum game to ensure that countries see an incentive for making deals.

The European Union’s Response to Piracy: Are the Lessons Learned in the Horn of Africa a Model for the Gulf of Guinea? EU Diplomacy Paper/2015

The European Union (EU) is seen as the leading actor in successfully fighting piracy around the Horn of Africa. As a global trade power with strong economic interests, the EU is also challenged by similar maritime security threats in the Gulf of Guinea. To date, there has been no comprehensive analysis to assess the potential transfer of successful EU instruments from the Horn of Africa to the piracy situation in West African waters. This paper examines to what extent the EU can draw on its experience made in the Horn of Africa to deter piracy in West African waters. Based on qualitative research interviews, lessons learned from East Africa are identified and subsequently applied to the situation in the Gulf of Guinea. The results show that the EU is only partially drawing on its experience made in the Horn of Africa. One the one hand, it is rather reluctant to use crisis management instruments such as naval operations. On the other hand, the EU is drawing on its successful leadership in international political and military cooperation from around the Horn of Africa in order to make more effective use of available resources in the Gulf of Guinea.

Germany’s engagement in the resolution of the Syrian conflict. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 194/25.01.2016

German Tornado Recce aircraft have been engaged in reconnaissance operations over Syria since January 2016. In December 2015 the German government and parliament decided that up to 1,200 Bundeswehr soldiers would take part in the international coalition fighting Islamic State in Syria. This decision marks a new chapter in Germany’s activity in the Middle East. The increasing destabilisation of the southern neighbourhood and the consequences this has for the EU and Germany have forced the German government to increase its level of engagement in the region. Even though Germany is a third-rate player in the Middle Eastern game, it is nonetheless ever more engaged politically and wants to be viewed as a neutral mediator between the competing actors in the region. It has also allocated more funds on regional development co-operation and humanitarian aid. Germany, whose attention has been directed towards Europe’s eastern neighbourhood, is currently turning its attention to the South. The Middle East (and Africa) is taking on increasing significance in German foreign and security policy. This may affect NATO’s eastern flank and the EU’s eastern neighbourhood since part of Germany’s instruments and funds may be redirected to the South.

Is there a need for additional monetary stimulus? Insights from the original Taylor Rule. CEPS Policy Brief No. 342, April 2016

Central banks in the developed world are being misled into fighting the perceived dangers of a ‘deflationary spiral’ because they are looking at only one indicator: consumer prices. This Policy Brief finds that while consumer prices are flat, broader price indices do not show any sign of impending deflation: the GDP deflator is increasing in the US, Japan and the euro area by about 1.2-1.5%. Nor is the real economy sending any deflationary signals either: unemployment is at record lows in the US and Japan, and is declining in the euro area while GDP growth is at, or above potential. Thus, the overall macroeconomic situation does not give any indication of an imminent deflationary spiral. In today’s high-debt environment, the authors argue that central banks should be looking at the GDP deflator and the growth of nominal GDP, instead of CPI inflation. Nominal GDP growth, as forecasted by the major official institutions, remains robust and is in excess of nominal interest rates. They conclude that if the ECB were to set the interest rate according to the standard rules of thumb for monetary policy, which take into account both the real economy and price developments of broader price indicators, it would start normalising its policy now, instead of pondering over additional measures to fight deflation, which does not exist. In short, economic conditions are slowly normalising; so should monetary policy.

From apathy to nationalist mobilisation: politics makes a comeback in Armenia. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 215 | 08.06.2016

In the military dimension, the Four-Day War in Nagorno-Karabakh (2–5 April 2016) changed little in the conflict zone. It has, however, had a significant impact on the situation in Armenia. The country was shocked out of the political malaise that had been the dominant mood in the last few years, and the Karabakh question, which used to animate political life in the late 1980s and early 1990s, once again became a driving force behind developments. In the internal dimension, the renewed fighting galvanised the political scene, triggered a rise in nationalist sentiments, mobilised the public and consolidated it around the Karabakh question, overshadowing the frustrations caused by the country’s difficult economic situation. In the external dimension, the war, which was viewed as Moscow-endorsed Azerbaijani aggression, undermined people’s trust in Russia and the Armenian-Russian alliance. It also made it clear for Armenians how uncertain the Russian security guarantees were and exacerbated their feelings of vulnerability and isolation on the international stage.

Assessment of fight outcome is needed to activate socially driven transcriptional changes in the zebrafish brain

Group living animals must be able to express different behavior profiles depending on their social status. Therefore, the same genotype may translate into different behavioral phenotypes through socially driven differential gene expression. However, how social information is translated into a neurogenomic response and what are the specific cues in a social interaction that signal a change in social status are questions that have remained unanswered. Here, we show for the first time, to our knowledge, that the switch between status-specific neurogenomic states relies on the assessment of fight outcome rather than just on self- or opponent-only assessment of fighting ability. For this purpose, we manipulated the perception of fight outcome in male zebrafish and measured its impact on the brain transcriptome using a zebrafish whole genome gene chip. Males fought either a real opponent, and a winner and a loser were identified, or their own image on a mirror, in which case, despite expressing aggressive behavior, males did not experience either a victory or a defeat. Massive changes in the brain transcriptome were observed in real opponent fighters, with losers displaying both a higher number of differentially expressed genes and of coexpressed gene modules than winners. In contrast, mirror fighters expressed a neurogenomic state similar to that of noninteracting fish. The genes that responded to fight outcome included immediate early genes and genes involved in neuroplasticity and epigenetic modifications. These results indicate that, even in cognitively simple organisms such as zebrafish, neurogenomic responses underlying changes in social status rely on mutual assessment of fighting ability.

Avaliação dos efeitos de um programa de caminhada nos fatores de risco de queda em idosos: equilíbrio, força e agilidade.

Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Desporto com especialização em Condição Física e Saúde

Fabrico e ensaio balístico em condições reais de conceito melhorado de um projétil de detonação mecânica

A floresta constitui uma das riquezas naturais com maior valor em todo o planeta, assumindo uma vital importância em termos ambientais e económicos, nomeadamente para Portugal. Neste projeto desenvolve-se um potencial meio de combate a incêndios florestais, com base num conceito inovador e complementar aos atuais meios aplicados no combate a este tipo de flagelo. Este projeto de investigação visa o desenvolvimento de um projétil de detonação mecânica, logo inerte, para aplicação no combate a incêndios florestais, e enquadra-se no âmbito de uma parceria alargada de colaboração em I&D entre a Academia Militar e o Instituto Superior Técnico. O conceito deste produto, ao qual foi atribuído o acrónimo: FIREND, foi, inicialmente, desenvolvido no âmbito de um projeto de I&D da Academia Militar. Neste projeto realiza-se o desenvolvimento final do conceito do produto, incluindo a verificação de aspetos chave no projeto mecânico, seleção e aquisição de materiais e fabrico de protótipos para ensaios balísticos em condições reais. Os resultados de funcionalidade e eficiência são apresentados nas fases estabilidade em voo, impacto com o solo, detonação, projeção e dispersão da carga para o exterior e análise de recuperação dos componentes do FIREND, após utilização. Tendo em conta os resultados obtidos relativos ao funcionamento do FIREND durante o disparo do Obus, voo, impacto no solo e detonação e ainda o estado geral dos componentes após os ensaios, pode-se concluir que se trata de um projeto viável.

Masking odour when regrouping rabbit does: Effect on aggression, stress and lesions.

Regrouping female rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in group housing systems is a common management practice in Swiss rabbit breeding which may, however, induce agonistic interactions resulting in social stress and severe lesions. On farms using artificial insemination, does are usually kept singly for 12 days after parturition to avoid pseudopregnancy and fighting for nests. The integration of new group members usually occurs after this isolation phase. This study was conducted with 128 gravid does of the Hycole hybrid, housed in pens covering a floor area of 5.7 m2 that was bedded with straw and furnished with elevated areas, hiding places and eight compartments with nest boxes. In the experiment, the fur of 16 groups of 8 does each was sprayed with either alcohol or vinegar to mask the pre-existing group odours, or with water (control groups) shortly before regrouping. Lesion scores, stress parameters (body temperature and blood glucose level) and behaviour were assessed before and after the isolation phase. Effects of treatment and time on all collected parameters were analysed using mixed models. On the second day after regrouping 43% of the does showed new lesions. In the first five days after regrouping, new lesions occurred in 60% of the does; 32% had severe lesions. After regrouping, more agonistic interactions were observed and body temperature and blood glucose levels were higher than before regrouping (P<0.001 each). Body temperature increased less in groups treated with vinegar compared to the other two treatments on the first day after regrouping (P=0.017). In all other parameters no influence of the treatment with alcohol or vinegar was found. These findings suggest that masking the group odours with alcohol or vinegar had little effect on lesions, stress and agonistic interactions. Therefore, alternative management procedures need to be developed to reduce lesions and stress caused by aggressive behaviour.

Arne and the Christmas star : a story of Norway /

At home in his village, Arne and his family prayed for the return of the freighter Stjerne, which was fighting against storms at sea in order to get back to the village. It was Christmas season and the Stjerne was the Christmas ship this year. It's mission was to bring gifts to the village. But more important to Arne, his brother Gustave was first mate on that ship and he and his family prayed for his safe return. This is the story of how Arne does his part to help bring the Christmas ship back safely to port.