Development of record-breaking statistics for climatological time-series analysis

The number of record-breaking events expected to occur in a strictly stationary time-series depends only on the number of values in the time-series, regardless of distribution. This holds whether the events are record-breaking highs or lows and whether we count from past to present or present to past. However, these symmetries are broken in distinct ways by trends in the mean and variance. We define indices that capture this information and use them to detect weak trends from multiple time-series. Here, we use these methods to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a variability trend among globally distributed surface temperature time-series? We find a significant decreasing variability over the past century for the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). This corresponds to about a 10% change in the standard deviation of inter-annual monthly mean temperature distributions. (2) How are record-breaking high and low surface temperatures in the United States affected by time period? We investigate the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and find that the ratio of record-breaking highs to lows in 2006 increases as the time-series extend further into the past. When we consider the ratio as it evolves with respect to a fixed start year, we find it is strongly correlated with the ensemble mean. We also compare the ratios for USHCN and GHCN (minus USHCN stations). We find the ratios grow monotonically in the GHCN data set, but not in the USHCN data set. (3) Do we detect either mean or variance trends in annual precipitation within the United States? We find that the total annual and monthly precipitation in the United States (USHCN) has increased over the past century. Evidence for a trend in variance is inconclusive.

HIGH PERFORMANCE, LOW COST SUBSPACE DECOMPOSITION AND POLYNOMIAL ROOTING FOR REAL TIME DIRECTION OF ARRIVAL ESTIMATION: ANALYSIS AND IMPLEMENTATION

This thesis develops high performance real-time signal processing modules for direction of arrival (DOA) estimation for localization systems. It proposes highly parallel algorithms for performing subspace decomposition and polynomial rooting, which are otherwise traditionally implemented using sequential algorithms. The proposed algorithms address the emerging need for real-time localization for a wide range of applications. As the antenna array size increases, the complexity of signal processing algorithms increases, making it increasingly difficult to satisfy the real-time constraints. This thesis addresses real-time implementation by proposing parallel algorithms, that maintain considerable improvement over traditional algorithms, especially for systems with larger number of antenna array elements. Singular value decomposition (SVD) and polynomial rooting are two computationally complex steps and act as the bottleneck to achieving real-time performance. The proposed algorithms are suitable for implementation on field programmable gated arrays (FPGAs), single instruction multiple data (SIMD) hardware or application specific integrated chips (ASICs), which offer large number of processing elements that can be exploited for parallel processing. The designs proposed in this thesis are modular, easily expandable and easy to implement. Firstly, this thesis proposes a fast converging SVD algorithm. The proposed method reduces the number of iterations it takes to converge to correct singular values, thus achieving closer to real-time performance. A general algorithm and a modular system design are provided making it easy for designers to replicate and extend the design to larger matrix sizes. Moreover, the method is highly parallel, which can be exploited in various hardware platforms mentioned earlier. A fixed point implementation of proposed SVD algorithm is presented. The FPGA design is pipelined to the maximum extent to increase the maximum achievable frequency of operation. The system was developed with the objective of achieving high throughput. Various modern cores available in FPGAs were used to maximize the performance and details of these modules are presented in detail. Finally, a parallel polynomial rooting technique based on Newton’s method applicable exclusively to root-MUSIC polynomials is proposed. Unique characteristics of root-MUSIC polynomial’s complex dynamics were exploited to derive this polynomial rooting method. The technique exhibits parallelism and converges to the desired root within fixed number of iterations, making this suitable for polynomial rooting of large degree polynomials. We believe this is the first time that complex dynamics of root-MUSIC polynomial were analyzed to propose an algorithm. In all, the thesis addresses two major bottlenecks in a direction of arrival estimation system, by providing simple, high throughput, parallel algorithms.

Survival and failure rates of orthodontic temporary anchorage devices: a systematic review

AIM: The purpose of this study was to systematically review the literature on the survival rates of palatal implants, Onplants((R)), miniplates and mini screws. MATERIAL AND METHODS: An electronic MEDLINE search supplemented by manual searching was conducted to identify randomized clinical trials, prospective and retrospective cohort studies on palatal implants, Onplants((R)), miniplates and miniscrews with a mean follow-up time of at least 12 weeks and of at least 10 units per modality having been examined clinically at a follow-up visit. Assessment of studies and data abstraction was performed independently by two reviewers. Reported failures of used devices were analyzed using random-effects Poisson regression models to obtain summary estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of failure and survival proportions. RESULTS: The search up to January 2009 provided 390 titles and 71 abstracts with full-text analysis of 34 articles, yielding 27 studies that met the inclusion criteria. In meta-analysis, the failure rate for Onplants((R)) was 17.2% (95% CI: 5.9-35.8%), 10.5% for palatal implants (95% CI: 6.1-18.1%), 16.4% for miniscrews (95% CI: 13.4-20.1%) and 7.3% for miniplates (95% CI: 5.4-9.9%). Miniplates and palatal implants, representing torque-resisting temporary anchorage devices (TADs), when grouped together, showed a 1.92-fold (95% CI: 1.06-2.78) lower clinical failure rate than miniscrews. CONCLUSION: Based on the available evidence in the literature, palatal implants and miniplates showed comparable survival rates of >or=90% over a period of at least 12 weeks, and yielded superior survival than miniscrews. Palatal implants and miniplates for temporary anchorage provide reliable absolute orthodontic anchorage. If the intended orthodontic treatment would require multiple miniscrew placement to provide adequate anchorage, the reliability of such systems is questionable. For patients who are undergoing extensive orthodontic treatment, force vectors may need to be varied or the roots of the teeth to be moved may need to slide past the anchors. In this context, palatal implants or miniplates should be the TADs of choice.

Treatment of acute renal failure in the intensive care unit: lower costs by intermittent dialysis than continuous venovenous hemodiafiltration

Intermittent and continuous renal replacement therapies (RRTs) are available for the treatment of acute renal failure (ARF) in the intensive care unit (ICU). Although at present there are no adequately powered survival studies, available data suggest that both methods are equal with respect to patient outcome. Therefore, cost comparison between techniques is important for selecting the modality. Expenditures were prospectively assessed as a secondary end point during a controlled, randomized trial comparing intermittent hemodialysis (IHD) with continuous venovenous hemodiafiltration (CVVHDF). The outcome of the primary end points of this trial, that is, ICU and in-hospital mortality, has been previously published. One hundred twenty-five patients from a Swiss university hospital ICU were randomized either to CVVHDF or IHD. Out of these, 42 (CVVHDF) and 34 (IHD) were available for cost analysis. Patients' characteristics, delivered dialysis dose, duration of stay in the ICU or hospital, mortality rates, and recovery of renal function were not different between the two groups. Detailed 24-h time and material consumption protocols were available for 369 (CVVHDF) and 195 (IHD) treatment days. The mean daily duration of CVVHDF was 19.5 +/- 3.2 h/day, resulting in total expenditures of Euro 436 +/- 21 (21% for human resources and 79% for technical devices). For IHD (mean 3.0 +/- 0.4 h/treatment), the costs were lower (Euro 268 +/- 26), with a larger proportion for human resources (45%). Nursing time spent for CVVHDF was 113 +/- 50 min, and 198 +/- 63 min per IHD treatment. Total costs for RRT in ICU patients with ARF were lower when treated with IHD than with CVVHDF, and have to be taken into account for the selection of the method of RRT in ARF on the ICU.

Campylobacter monitoring in German broiler flocks: an explorative time series analysis

Campylobacter, a major zoonotic pathogen, displays seasonality in poultry and in humans. In order to identify temporal patterns in the prevalence of thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in a voluntary monitoring programme in broiler flocks in Germany and in the reported human incidence, time series methods were used. The data originated between May 2004 and June 2007. By the use of seasonal decomposition, autocorrelation and cross-correlation functions, it could be shown that an annual seasonality is present. However, the peak month differs between sample submission, prevalence in broilers and human incidence. Strikingly, the peak in human campylobacterioses preceded the peak in broiler prevalence in Lower Saxony rather than occurring after it. Significant cross-correlations between monthly temperature and prevalence in broilers as well as between human incidence, monthly temperature, rainfall and wind-force were identified. The results highlight the necessity to quantify the transmission of Campylobacter from broiler to humans and to include climatic factors in order to gain further insight into the epidemiology of this zoonotic disease.

Curing lights for orthodontic bonding: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION Light cure of resin-based adhesives is the mainstay of orthodontic bonding. In recent years, alternatives to conventional halogen lights offering reduced curing time and the potential for lower attachment failure rates have emerged. The relative merits of curing lights in current use, including halogen-based lamps, light-emitting diodes (LEDs), and plasma arc lights, have not been analyzed systematically. In this study, we reviewed randomized controlled trials and controlled clinical trials to assess the risks of attachment failure and bonding time in orthodontic patients in whom brackets were cured with halogen lights, LEDs, or plasma arc systems. METHODS Multiple electronic database searches were undertaken, including MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Oral Health Group's Trials Register, CENTRAL. Language restrictions were not applied. Unpublished literature was searched on ClinicalTrials.gov, the National Research Register, Pro-Quest Dissertation Abstracts, and Thesis database. Search terms included randomized controlled trial, controlled clinical trial, random allocation, double blind method, single blind method, orthodontics, LED, halogen, bond, and bracket. Authors of primary studies were contacted as required, and reference lists of the included studies were screened. RESULTS Randomized controlled trials and clinical controlled trials directly comparing conventional halogen lights, LEDs, or plasma arc systems involving patients with full arch, fixed, or bonded orthodontic appliances (not banded) with follow-up periods of a minimum of 6 months were included. Using predefined forms, 2 authors undertook independent extraction of articles; disagreements were resolved by discussion. The assessment of the risk of bias of the randomized controlled trials was based on the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Ten studies met the inclusion criteria; 2 were excluded because of high risk of bias. In the comparison of bond failure risk with halogen lights and plasma arc lights, 1851 brackets were included in both groups. Little statistical heterogeneity was observed in this analysis (I(2) = 4.8%; P = 0.379). There was no statistical difference in bond failure risk between the groups (OR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.68-1.23; prediction intervals, 0.54, 1.56). Similarly, no statistical difference in bond failure risk was observed in the meta-analysis comparing halogen lights and LEDs (OR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.64-1.44; prediction intervals, 0.07, 13.32). The pooled estimates from both comparisons were OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.74-1.17; and prediction intervals, 0.69, 1.17. CONCLUSIONS There is no evidence to support the use of 1 light cure type over another based on risk of attachment failure.

Accounting for baseline differences and measurement error in the analysis of change over time

If change over time is compared in several groups, it is important to take into account baseline values so that the comparison is carried out under the same preconditions. As the observed baseline measurements are distorted by measurement error, it may not be sufficient to include them as covariate. By fitting a longitudinal mixed-effects model to all data including the baseline observations and subsequently calculating the expected change conditional on the underlying baseline value, a solution to this problem has been provided recently so that groups with the same baseline characteristics can be compared. In this article, we present an extended approach where a broader set of models can be used. Specifically, it is possible to include any desired set of interactions between the time variable and the other covariates, and also, time-dependent covariates can be included. Additionally, we extend the method to adjust for baseline measurement error of other time-varying covariates. We apply the methodology to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study to address the question if a joint infection with HIV-1 and hepatitis C virus leads to a slower increase of CD4 lymphocyte counts over time after the start of antiretroviral therapy.

Bacillus Calmette-Guérin Failure in Patients with Non-Muscle-invasive Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder May Be Due to the Urologist's Failure to Detect Urothelial Carcinoma of the Upper Urinary Tract and Urethra

BACKGROUND: Various reasons exist for so-called bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) failure in patients with non-muscle-invasive urothelial bladder carcinoma (NMIBC). OBJECTIVE: To explore whether urothelial carcinoma of the upper urinary tract (UUT) and/or prostatic urethra may be a cause for BCG failure. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective analysis of 110 patients with high-risk NMIBC repeatedly treated with intravesical BCG, diagnosed with disease recurrence, and followed for a median time of 9.1 yr. INTERVENTION: Two or more intravesical BCG induction courses without maintenance. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Primary outcome was pattern of disease recurrence (BCG failure) within the urinary tract categorised into UUT and/or urethral carcinoma (with or without intravesical recurrence), and intravesical recurrence alone. Secondary outcome was survival. Predictors of UUT and/or urethral carcinoma and the effect of pattern of disease recurrence on cancer-specific survival were assessed with multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusting for multiple clinical and tumour characteristics. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Of the 110 patients, 57 (52%) had UUT and/or urethral carcinoma (with or without intravesical recurrence), and 53 (48%) had intravesical recurrence alone. In patients with UUT and/or urethral carcinoma, bladder carcinoma in situ (Tis) before the first and second BCG course was present in 42 of 57 (74%) and 47 of 57 (82%) patients, respectively. On multivariable analysis, bladder Tis before the first and/or second BCG course was the only independent predictor of UUT and/or urethral carcinoma. Of the 110 patients, 69 (63%) were alive at last follow-up visit, 18 (16%) had died due to metastatic urothelial carcinoma, and 23 (21%) had died of other causes. Pattern of disease recurrence within the urinary tract was not an independent predictor of cancer-specific survival. Main study limitations were retrospective design and limited power for survival analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In our patients with high-risk NMIBC failing after two or more courses of intravesical BCG, UUT and/or urethral carcinoma was detected in >50% of the cases during follow-up. The vast majority of these patients had bladder Tis before the first and/or second BCG course. In patients experiencing the so-called BCG failure, a diagnostic work-up of UUT and prostatic urethra should always be performed to exclude urothelial carcinoma before additional intravesical therapy or even a radical cystectomy is considered.

Time courses and quantitative analysis of atrial fibrillation episode number and duration after circular plus linear left atrial lesions: trigger elimination or substrate modification: early or delayed cure?

OBJECTIVES We sought to analyze the time course of atrial fibrillation (AF) episodes before and after circular plus linear left atrial ablation and the percentage of patients with complete freedom from AF after ablation by using serial seven-day electrocardiograms (ECGs). BACKGROUND The curative treatment of AF targets the pathophysiological corner stones of AF (i.e., the initiating triggers and/or the perpetuation of AF). The pathophysiological complexity of both may not result in an "all-or-nothing" response but may modify number and duration of AF episodes. METHODS In patients with highly symptomatic AF, circular plus linear ablation lesions were placed around the left and right pulmonary veins, between the two circles, and from the left circle to the mitral annulus using the electroanatomic mapping system. Repetitive continuous 7-day ECGs administered before and after catheter ablation were used for rhythm follow-up. RESULTS In 100 patients with paroxysmal (n = 80) and persistent (n = 20) AF, relative duration of time spent in AF significantly decreased over time (35 +/- 37% before ablation, 26 +/- 41% directly after ablation, and 10 +/- 22% after 12 months). Freedom from AF stepwise increased in patients with paroxysmal AF and after 12 months measured at 88% or 74% depending on whether 24-h ECG or 7-day ECG was used. Complete pulmonary vein isolation was demonstrated in <20% of the circular lesions. CONCLUSIONS The results obtained in patients with AF treated with circular plus linear left atrial lesions strongly indicate that substrate modification is the main underlying pathophysiologic mechanism and that it results in a delayed cure instead of an immediate cure.

Time Preferences and Environmental Concern: An Analysis of the Swiss ISSP 2010

This study analyzes the trend of environmental concern in Switzerland using data from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP) 1993, 2000, and 2010. First, we compare the observed trend with indicators of the intensity of public debate regarding the environment. The results show that both the number of articles dealing with environmental issues in print newspapers and the debates in the Swiss parliament strongly increased during the observed period. The ecological awareness of the population, however, remained constant over this time. Second, we scrutinize the "social basis" of environmental concern paying particular attention to individuals' time preferences. Third, we investigate the relationship between environmental concern and proenvironmental behavior, on the one hand, and the relation of concern and the acceptance of governmental regulations, on the other hand.

A Near-Real-Time Automatic Orbit Determination System for COSMIC and Its Follow-On Satellite Mission: Analysis of Orbit and Clock Errors on Radio Occultation

The COSMIC-2 mission is a follow-on mission of the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) with an upgraded payload for improved radio occultation (RO) applications. The objective of this paper is to develop a near-real-time (NRT) orbit determination system, called NRT National Chiao Tung University (NCTU) system, to support COSMIC-2 in atmospheric applications and verify the orbit product of COSMIC. The system is capable of automatic determinations of the NRT GPS clocks and LEO orbit and clock. To assess the NRT (NCTU) system, we use eight days of COSMIC data (March 24-31, 2011), which contain a total of 331 GPS observation sessions and 12 393 RO observable files. The parallel scheduling for independent GPS and LEO estimations and automatic time matching improves the computational efficiency by 64% compared to the sequential scheduling. Orbit difference analyses suggest a 10-cm accuracy for the COSMIC orbits from the NRT (NCTU) system, and it is consistent as the NRT University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (URCA) system. The mean velocity accuracy from the NRT orbits of COSMIC is 0.168 mm/s, corresponding to an error of about 0.051 μrad in the bending angle. The rms differences in the NRT COSMIC clock and in GPS clocks between the NRT (NCTU) and the postprocessing products are 3.742 and 1.427 ns. The GPS clocks determined from a partial ground GPS network [from NRT (NCTU)] and a full one [from NRT (UCAR)] result in mean rms frequency stabilities of 6.1E-12 and 2.7E-12, respectively, corresponding to range fluctuations of 5.5 and 2.4 cm and bending angle errors of 3.75 and 1.66 μrad .