Mineral composition and experimental results from XRD analyses of sediments from ODP Leg 190 sites

X-ray diffraction analyses of the clay-sized fraction of sediments from the Nankai Trough and Shikoku Basin (Sites 1173, 1174, and 1177 of the Ocean Drilling Program) reveal spatial and temporal trends in clay minerals and diagenesis. More detrital smectite was transported into the Shikoku Basin during the early-middle Miocene than what we observe today, and smectite input decreased progressively through the late Miocene and Pliocene. Volcanic ash has been altered to dioctahedral smectite in the upper Shikoku Basin facies at Site 1173; the ash alteration front shifts upsection to the outer trench-wedge facies at Site 1174. At greater depths (lower Shikoku Basin facies), smectite alters to illite/smectite mixed-layer clay, but reaction progress is incomplete. Using ambient geothermal conditions, a kinetic model overpredicts the amount of illite in illite/smectite clays by 15%-20% at Site 1174. Numerical simulations come closer to observations if the concentration of potassium in pore water is reduced or the time of burial is shortened. Model results match X-ray diffraction results fairly well at Site 1173. The geothermal gradient at Site 1177 is substantially lower than at Sites 1173 and 1174; consequently, volcanic ash alters to smectite in lower Shikoku Basin deposits but smectite-illite diagenesis has not started. The absolute abundance of smectite in mudstones from Site 1177 is sufficient (30-60 wt%) to influence the strata's shear strength and hydrogeology as they subduct along the Ashizuri Transect.

Coccolithophore taxa and PCA factor analysis of ODP Site 1233

We provide high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) and paleoproductivity data focusing on Termination 1. We describe a new method for estimating SSTs based on multivariate statistical analyses performed on modern coccolithophore census data, and we present the first downcore reconstructions derived from coccolithophore assemblages at Ocean Drilling Project (ODP) Site 1233 located offshore Chile. We compare our coccolithophore SST record to alkenone-based SSTs as well as SST reconstructions based on dinoflagellates and radiolaria. All reconstructions generally show a remarkable concordance. As in the alkenone SST record, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 19-23 kyr B.P.) is not clearly defined in our SST reconstruction. After the onset of deglaciation, three major warming steps are recorded: from 18.6 to 18 kyr B.P. (~2.6°C), from 15.7 to 15.3 kyr B.P. (~2.5°C), and from 13 to 11.4 kyr B.P. (~3.4°C). Consistent with the other records from Site 1233 and Antarctic ice core records, we observed a clear Holocene Climatic Optimum (HCO) from ~8-12 kyr B.P. Combining the SST reconstruction with coccolith absolute abundances and accumulation rates, we show that colder temperatures during the LGM are linked to higher coccolithophore productivity offshore Chile and warmer SSTs during the HCO to lower coccolithophore productivity, with indications of weak coastal upwelling. We interpret our data in terms of latitudinal displacements of the Southern Westerlies and the northern margin of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current system over the deglaciation and the Holocene.

Environmental analyses of cyclic Middle Eocene sediments and palynomorph records of ODP Hole 189-1172A

The influence of orbital precession on early Paleogene climate and ocean circulation patterns in the southeast Pacific region is investigated by combining environmental analyses of cyclic Middle Eocene sediments and palynomorph records recovered from ODP Hole 1172A on the East Tasman Plateau with climate model simulations. Integration of results indicates that in the marine realm, direct effects of precessional forcing are not pronounced, although increased precipitation/runoff could have enhanced dinoflagellate cyst production. On the southeast Australian continent, the most pronounced effects of precessional forcing were fluctuations in summer precipitation and temperature on the Antarctic Margin. These fluctuations resulted in vegetational changes, most notably in the distribution of Nothofagus (subgenus Brassospora). The climate model results suggest significant fluctuations in sea ice in the Ross Sea, notably during Austral summers. This is consistent with the influx of Antarctic heterotrophic dinoflagellates in the early part of the studied record. The data demonstrate a strong precessionally driven climate variability and thus support the concept that precessional forcing could have played a role in early Antarctic glaciation via changes in runoff and/or precipitation.

Alkenone analyses of sediment cores from the western Arabian Sea

Records of total organic carbon (TOC) and C37 alkenones were used as indicators for past primary productivity in the western and eastern Arabian Sea. Data from GeoB 3005, an open ocean site in the western Arabian Sea upwelling area, are compared with similar records of GeoB 3007 from the Owen Ridge, Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 723 from the continental margin off Oman and MD 900963 from the eastern Arabian Sea. TOC/C37 alkenone records together with other proxies used to reconstruct upwelling intensity, indicate periods of high productivity in tune with precessional forcing all over the Arabian Sea. Based on their phase-relationship to variations in boreal summer insolation they can be divided into three groups. In the western Arabian Sea the precession-related phasing is different between productivity proxies and those for summer monsoon wind strength and upwelling intensity. TOC and C37 alkenone records from the western Arabian Sea lag the other monsoonal indicators by about 5 kyr, but lead productivity indicators from the eastern Arabian Sea by 3 kyr. Based on the differences in phase relationships associated with the precessional cycling between productivity and monsoonal proxies in the western Arabian Sea it is proposed that the TOC/C37 alkenone signal in the western Arabian Sea document a combined signal of moderate SW monsoon winds and of strengthened and prolonged NE monsoon winds. In the eastern Arabian Sea the phasing hints to coincidence between maximum productivity and stronger NE monsoon winds associated with precession-related maxima in ice volume. In contrast, variations in paleoproductivity at site GeoB 3007 from the Owen Ridge indicate productivity maxima during glacial substages 8.2, 6.2 and 2.2, whereas precessionrelated changes are of only minor importance at this location. The results of frequency analyses confirm that productivity at site GeoB 3007 responds predominantly to glacialinterglacial climate changes, while site GeoB 3005 from the open ocean upwelling region near the Gulf of Aden is dominated by precessional insolation. A possible explanation for the pattern revealed at the Owen Ridge is the periodic NW-SE displacement of the Findlater Jet axis, which separates the region of open ocean upwelling to the northwest from downwelling to the southeast ofthe jet. The carbon isotopes of planktic foraminifera reflect nutrient related d13C variations of dissolved inorganic carbon. The difference between the planktic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber (w), living in the upper 50 m of the water column, and the deeper Iiving Neogloboquadrina dutertrei (Delta d13Cr-d) of core GeoB 3005 displays nutrient variations in the upwelling area near the Gulf of Aden. The results of cross-spectral analyses between Deltad13Cr-d of GeoB 3005 and proxies for SW monsoon intensity indicate, too, a dissociation of productivity from monsoonal upwelling intensity. Instead, productivity depends mainly on the availability of nutrients, while upwelling intensity of sub-surface water masses seems to be of only secondary importance. Additionally, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were reconstructed using the unsaturation ratio of C37 alkenones. Alkenone SSTs reflect annual mean temperatures rather than explicitly the season of upwelling. This is evident from alkenone SSTs in a transect of surface sediments extending from the inner Gulf of Aden into the western Arabian Sea. The alkenone-derived SST records of GeoB 3005 from the open ocean upwelling region near the Gulf of Aden and GeoB 3007 from the Owen Ridge reveal similar variations with high SSTs during interglacial and low SSTs during glacial periods. The glacial marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 6 remains relatively warm and was not as cold as MIS 3 to 4 and 8 according to the alkenone SST. Similar variation-patterns were reconstructed in the coastal upwelling area off Oman for ODP Site 723 as weIl as in the eastern Arabian Sea for MD 900963, where upwelling is not as pronounced as in the western Arabian Sea. Spectral-analyses indicate that SST changes are in good agreement with the modulation of low-latitude precessional insolation changes by eccentricity. However, they do not show the pronounced cydicity in the precessional frequency band, which is characteristic for variations in paleoproductivity. Although the overall variation pattern is very similar, a dose comparison between the western (GeoB 3005) and the eastern Arabian Sea (MD 900963) shows larger differences between both sites during cold intervals than during periods of warm SSTs. This is attributed to a more effective cooling of surface waters in the western Arabian Sea by prolonged NE monsoon winds during times of expanded Northern Hemisphere ice-sheets, thereby lowering the annual mean SSTs stronger than in the eastern Arabian Sea.

Results of n-alkane biomarker analyses and paleoclimate reconstruction

The current study presents quantitative reconstructions of tree cover, annual precipitation and mean July temperature derived from the pollen record from Lake Billyakh (65°17'N, 126°47'E, 340 m above sea level) spanning the last ca. 50 kyr. The reconstruction of tree cover suggests presence of woody plants through the entire analyzed time interval, although trees played only a minor role in the vegetation around Lake Billyakh prior to 14 kyr BP (<5%). This result corroborates low percentages of tree pollen and low scores of the cold deciduous forest biome in the PG1755 record from Lake Billyakh. The reconstructed values of the mean temperature of the warmest month ~8-10 °C do not support larch forest or woodland around Lake Billyakh during the coldest phase of the last glacial between ~32 and ~15 kyr BP. However, modern cases from northern Siberia, ca. 750 km north of Lake Billyakh, demonstrate that individual larch plants can grow within shrub and grass tundra landscape in very low mean July temperatures of about 8 °C. This makes plausible our hypothesis that the western and southern foreland of the Verkhoyansk Mountains could provide enough moist and warm microhabitats and allow individual larch specimens to survive climatic extremes of the last glacial. Reconstructed mean values of precipitation are about 270 mm/yr during the last glacial interval. This value is almost 100 mm higher than modern averages reported for the extreme-continental north-eastern Siberia east of Lake Billyakh, where larch-dominated cold deciduous forest grows at present. This suggests that last glacial environments around Lake Billyakh were never too dry for larch to grow and that the summer warmth was the main factor, which limited tree growth during the last glacial interval. The n-alkane analysis of the Siberian plants presented in this study demonstrates rather complex alkane distribution patterns, which challenge the interpretation of the fossil records. In particular, extremely low n-alkane concentrations in the leaves of local coniferous trees and shrubs suggest that their contribution to the litter and therefore to the fossil lake sediments might be not high enough for tracing the Quaternary history of the needleleaved taxa using the n-alkane biomarker method.

Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.