A stochastic model of temporal variations in monthly temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and resulting snowpack

We report a Monte Carlo representation of the long-term inter-annual variability of monthly snowfall on a detailed (1 km) grid of points throughout the southwest. An extension of the local climate model of the southwestern United States (Stamm and Craig 1992) provides spatially based estimates of mean and variance of monthly temperature and precipitation. The mean is the expected value from a canonical regression using independent variables that represent controls on climate in this area, including orography. Variance is computed as the standard error of the prediction and provides site-specific measures of (1) natural sources of variation and (2) errors due to limitations of the data and poor distribution of climate stations. Simulation of monthly temperature and precipitation over a sequence of years is achieved by drawing from a bivariate normal distribution. The conditional expectation of precipitation. given temperature in each month, is the basis of a numerical integration of the normal probability distribution of log precipitation below a threshold temperature (3°C) to determine snowfall as a percent of total precipitation. Snowfall predictions are tested at stations for which long-term records are available. At Donner Memorial State Park (elevation 1811 meters) a 34-year simulation - matching the length of instrumental record - is within 15 percent of observed for mean annual snowfall. We also compute resulting snowpack using a variation of the model of Martinec et al. (1983). This allows additional tests by examining spatial patterns of predicted snowfall and snowpack and their hydrologic implications.

A sudden collapse in distribution of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) off southwestern Australia enables an objective re-assessment of biomass estimates

Fishery-independent estimates of spawning biomass (BSP) of the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) on the south and lower west coasts of Western Australia (WA) were obtained periodically between 1991 and 1999 by using the daily egg production method (DEPM). Ichthyoplankton data collected during these surveys, specifically the presence or absence of S. sagax eggs, were used to investigate trends in the spawning area of S. sagax within each of four regions. The expectation was that trends in BSP and spawning area were positively related. With the DEPM model, estimates of BSP will change proportionally with spawning area if all other variables remain constant. The proportion of positive stations (PPS), i.e., stations with nonzero egg counts — an objective estimator of spawning area — was high for all south coast regions during the early 1990s (a period when the estimated BSP was also high) and then decreased after the mid-1990s. There was a decrease in PPS from the mid-1990s to 1999. The particularly low estimates in 1999 followed a severe epidemic mass mortality of S. sagax throughout their range across southern Australia. Deviations from the expected relationship between BSP and PPS were used to identify uncertainty around estimates of BSP. Because estimation of spawning area is subject to less sampling bias than estimation of BSP, the deviation in the relation between the two provides an objective basis for adjusting some estimates of the latter. Such an approach is particularly useful for fisheries management purposes when sampling problems are suspected to be present. The analysis of PPS undertaken from the same set of samples from which the DEPM estimate is derived will help provide information for stock assessments and for the management of purse-seine fisheries.

Monte Carlo simulation of streamflow of the Salt River, Arizona

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Evaluations of the impact of climate change (such as a greenhouse effect) upon water resources should represent both the expected change and the uncertainty in that expectation. Since water resources such as streamflow and reservoir levels depend on a variety of factors, each of which is subject to significant uncertainty, it is desirable to formulate methods of representing that uncertainty in the forcing factors and from this determine the uncertainty in the response variables of interest. We report here progress in the representation of the uncertainty in climate upon the uncertainty in the estimated hydrologic response.

Adaptive evolution of MRGX2, a human sensory neuron specific gene involved in nociception

MRGX2, a G-protein-coupled receptor, is specifically expressed in the sensory neurons of the human peripheral nervous system and involved in nociception. Here, we studied DNA polymorphism patterns and evolution of the MRGX2 gene in world-wide human populations and the representative nonhuman primate species. Our results demonstrated that MRGX2 had undergone adaptive changes in the path of human evolution, which were likely caused by Darwinian positive selection. The patterns of DNA sequence polymorphisms in human populations showed an excess of derived substitutions, which against the expectation of neutral evolution, implying that the adaptive evolution of MRGX2 in humans was a relatively recent event. The reconstructed secondary structure of the human MRGX2 revealed that three of the four human-specific amino acid substitutions were located in the extra-cellular domains. Such critical substitutions may alter the interactions between MRGX2 protein and its ligand, thus, potentially led to adaptive changes of the pain-perception-related nervous system during human evolution. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A study on performances of intensification in the farming system of a shrimp farm at Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh

This study examines the harvest and mean production in relation to the stocking of P. monodon fry during the period between March 1992 and October 1994, at the farm owned by M/s Monugung Sea Food Ltd., Cox's Bazar. The analysis shows that production figures were initially up to expectation, but after harvesting 4 crops within 16 months, production sharply decreased. The unexpected high mortality of the growing stock was due to outbreak of an uncontrollabe disease (Vibriosis). Significantly higher variations in production, survival and growth were also noted among the different treatments.

Parameter learning for POMDP spoken dialogue models

The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) provides a popular framework for modelling spoken dialogue. This paper describes how the expectation propagation algorithm (EP) can be used to learn the parameters of the POMDP user model. Various special probability factors applicable to this task are presented, which allow the parameters be to learned when the structure of the dialogue is complex. No annotations, neither the true dialogue state nor the true semantics of user utterances, are required. Parameters optimised using the proposed techniques are shown to improve the performance of both offline transcription experiments as well as simulated dialogue management performance. ©2010 IEEE.

Patterns of interaction in construction team meetingsξ

Sir John Egan’s 1998 report on the construction industry (Construction Task Force 1998) noted its confrontational and adversarial nature. Both the original report and its subsequent endorsement in Accelerating Change (Strategic Forum 2002) called for improved working relationships—so-called ‘integration’—within and between both design and construction aspects. In this paper, we report on our observations of on-site team meetings for a major UK project during its construction phase. We attended a series of team meetings and recorded the patterns of verbal interaction that took place within them. In reporting our findings, we have deliberately used a graphical method for presenting the results, in the expectation that this will make them more readily accessible to designers. Our diagrams of these interaction patterns have already proved to be intuitively and quickly understood, and have generated interest and discussion among both those we observed and others who have seen them. We noted that different patterns of communication occurred in different types of meetings. Specifically, in the problem-solving meeting, there was a richness of interaction that was largely missing from progress meetings and technical meetings. Team members expressed greater satisfaction with this problem-solving meeting where these enriched exchanges took place. By making comparisons between the different patterns, we are also able to explore functional roles and their interactions. From this and other published evidence, we conclude that good teamworking practices depend on a complex interplay of relations and dependencies embedded within the team.

Deconvolution and elastography based on dimensional ultrasound

This paper is in two parts and addresses two of getting more information out of the RF signal from three-dimensional (3D) mechanically-swept medical ultrasound . The first topic is the use of non-blind deconvolution improve the clarity of the data, particularly in the direction to the individual B-scans. The second topic is imaging. We present a robust and efficient approach to estimation and display of axial strain information. deconvolution, we calculate an estimate of the point-spread at each depth in the image using Field II. This is used as of an Expectation Maximisation (EM) framework in which ultrasound scatterer field is modelled as the product of (a) a smooth function and (b) a fine-grain varying function. the E step, a Wiener filter is used to estimate the scatterer based on an assumed piecewise smooth component. In the M , wavelet de-noising is used to estimate the piecewise smooth from the scatterer field. strain imaging, we use a quasi-static approach with efficient based algorithms. Our contributions lie in robust and 3D displacement tracking, point-wise quality-weighted , and a stable display that shows not only strain but an indication of the quality of the data at each point in the . This enables clinicians to see where the strain estimate is and where it is mostly noise. deconvolution, we present in-vivo images and simulations quantitative performance measures. With the blurred 3D taken as OdB, we get an improvement in signal to noise ratio 4.6dB with a Wiener filter alone, 4.36dB with the ForWaRD and S.18dB with our EM algorithm. For strain imaging show images based on 2D and 3D data and describe how full D analysis can be performed in about 20 seconds on a typical . We will also present initial results of our clinical study to explore the applications of our system in our local hospital. © 2008 IEEE.

Optimum Magnetic Circuit Configurations for Permanent Magnet Aerospace Generators

In the design of high-speed low-power electrical generators for unmanned aircraft and spacecraft, maximization of specific output (power/weight) is of prime importance. Several magnetic circuit configurations (radial-field, axial-field, flux-squeezing, homopolar) have been proposed, and in this paper the relative merits of these configurations are subjected to a quantitative investigation over the speed range 10 000–100000 rev/min and power range 250 W-10 kW. The advantages of incorporating new high energy-density magnetic materials are described. Part I deals with establishing an equivalent circuit for permanent-magnet generators. For each configuration the equivalent circuit parameters are related to the physical dimensions of the generator components and an optimization procedure produces a minimum volume design at discrete output powers and operating speeds. The technique is illustrated by a quantitative comparison of the specific outputs of conventional radial-field generators with samarium cobalt and alnico magnets. In Part II the specific outputs of conventional, flux-squeezing, and claw-rotor magnetic circuit configurations are compared. The flux-squeezing configuration is shown to produce the highest specific output for small sizes whereas the conventional configuration is best at large sizes. For all sizes the claw-rotor configuration is significantly inferior. In Part III the power densities available from axial-field and flux-switching magnetic circuit configurations are maximized, over the power range 0.25-10 kW and speed range 10 000–100000 rpm, and compared to the results of Parts I & II. For the axial-field configuration the power density is always less than that of the conventional and flux-squeezing radial-field configurations. For the flux-switching generator, which is able to withstand relatively high mechanical forces in the rotor, the power density is again inferior to the radial-field types, but the difference is less apparent for small (low power, high speed) generator sizes. From the combined results it can be concluded that the flux-squeezing and conventional radial-field magnetic circuit configurations yield designs with minimum volume over the power and speed ranges considered. © 1985, IEEE. All rights reserved.

Adjoint algorithms for the Navier-Stokes equations in the low Mach number limit

This paper describes a derivation of the adjoint low Mach number equations and their implementation and validation within a global mode solver. The advantage of using the low Mach number equations and their adjoints is that they are appropriate for flows with variable density, such as flames, but do not require resolution of acoustic waves. Two versions of the adjoint are implemented and assessed: a discrete-adjoint and a continuous-adjoint. The most unstable global mode calculated with the discrete-adjoint has exactly the same eigenvalue as the corresponding direct global mode but contains numerical artifacts near the inlet. The most unstable global mode calculated with the continuous-adjoint has no numerical artifacts but a slightly different eigenvalue. The eigenvalues converge, however, as the timestep reduces. Apart from the numerical artifacts, the mode shapes are very similar, which supports the expectation that they are otherwise equivalent. The continuous-adjoint requires less resolution and usually converges more quickly than the discrete-adjoint but is more challenging to implement. Finally, the direct and adjoint global modes are combined in order to calculate the wavemaker region of a low density jet. © 2011 Elsevier Inc.

MULTIVARIATE COMPARISON OF THE FORELIMB BETWEEN STUMP-TAILED AND RHESUS MACAQUES

Rhesus macaques and stump-tailed macaques are sympatric in western Yunnan (China), coexisting or occupying habitats that show little difference. This paper tests hypotheses based on theoretical expectation from the differing biomechanical demands of terrestrial and arboreal quadrupedalism in stump-tailed macaques and rhesus macaques, respectively. Individuals of these two macaque taxa were markedly separated by the first two principal components and discriminant analyses based on 18 variables of the upper limb. The rhesus macaques appear to be more adapted for arboreal quadruped habits because of elongation of the clavicle and forearm, a larger humeral head and greater midshaft sagittal diameters of the radius and ulna.

Rhinopithecus bieti at Tacheng, Yunnan: Diet and daytime activities

We collected data on diet and activity budget in a group of Rhinopithecus bieti at Tacheng (99degrees 18'E, 27degrees 36' N, between 2,700 - 3,700 m asl), Yunnan, from March 1999 to December 2000. We mainly recorded species-parts eaten with feeding scores from scanning state behaviors of one-male units in tree-crowns. We also conducted microscopic analysis of feces collected monthly. The subjects consumed 59 plant species, belonging to 42 genera in 28 families, of which 90 species-parts were distributed as follows: 21 in Winter, 38 in spring, 39 in Summer, 47 in autumn. Conversely, the group annually spent, on average, 35% of daytime feeding, 33% resting, 15% moving, and 13% in social activities. Seasonal changes are apparent in daytime budget and food item-related feeding time in tree-crowns, food remains in feces, and the number of species-parts eaten. Correlations within and between food items and time budget clearly indicate maximization of foraging effectiveness and minimization of energy expenditure. In consideration of reports from northern and southern groups, that which underlay the specific adaptation to the habitat appeared to be similar to those of other colobines. Thus, the ultimate factors for survival of the species are more hopeful than expected.

Re-conceptualising value in the engineering design process: The value cycle map

Introducing a "Cheaper, Faster, Better" product in today's highly competitive market is a challenging target. Therefore, for organizations to improve their performance in this area, they need to adopt methods such as process modelling, risk mitigation and lean principles. Recently, several industries and researchers focused efforts on transferring the value orientation concept to other phases of the Product Life Cycle (PLC) such as Product Development (PD), after its evident success in manufacturing. In PD, value maximization, which is the main objective of lean theory, has been of particular interest as an improvement concept that can enhance process flow logistics and support decision-making. This paper presents an ongoing study of the current understanding of value thinking in PD (VPD) with a focus on value dimensions and implementation benefits. The purpose of this study is to consider the current state of knowledge regarding value thinking in PD, and to propose a definition of value and a framework for analyzing value delivery. The framework-named the Value Cycle Map (VCM)- intends to facilitate understanding of value and its delivery mechanism in the context of the PLC. We suggest the VCM could be used as a foundation for future research in value modelling and measurement in PD.

Probabilistic amplitude and frequency demodulation

A number of recent scientific and engineering problems require signals to be decomposed into a product of a slowly varying positive envelope and a quickly varying carrier whose instantaneous frequency also varies slowly over time. Although signal processing provides algorithms for so-called amplitude-and frequency-demodulation (AFD), there are well known problems with all of the existing methods. Motivated by the fact that AFD is ill-posed, we approach the problem using probabilistic inference. The new approach, called probabilistic amplitude and frequency demodulation (PAFD), models instantaneous frequency using an auto-regressive generalization of the von Mises distribution, and the envelopes using Gaussian auto-regressive dynamics with a positivity constraint. A novel form of expectation propagation is used for inference. We demonstrate that although PAFD is computationally demanding, it outperforms previous approaches on synthetic and real signals in clean, noisy and missing data settings.

Gaussian Process Vine Copulas for Multivariate Dependence

Copulas allow to learn marginal distributions separately from the multivariate dependence structure (copula) that links them together into a density function. Vine factorizations ease the learning of high-dimensional copulas by constructing a hierarchy of conditional bivariate copulas. However, to simplify inference, it is common to assume that each of these conditional bivariate copulas is independent from its conditioning variables. In this paper, we relax this assumption by discovering the latent functions that specify the shape of a conditional copula given its conditioning variables We learn these functions by following a Bayesian approach based on sparse Gaussian processes with expectation propagation for scalable, approximate inference. Experiments on real-world datasets show that, when modeling all conditional dependencies, we obtain better estimates of the underlying copula of the data.