How should the sustainability of the location of dry ports be measured? A proposed methodology using Bayesian networks and multi-criteria decision analysis

The global economic structure, with its decentralized production and the consequent increase in freight traffic all over the world, creates considerable problems and challenges for the freight transport sector. This situation has led shipping to become the most suitable and cheapest way to transport goods. Thus, ports are configured as nodes with critical importance in the logistics supply chain as a link between two transport systems, sea and land. Increase in activity at seaports is producing three undesirable effects: increasing road congestion, lack of open space in port installations and a significant environmental impact on seaports. These adverse effects can be mitigated by moving part of the activity inland. Implementation of dry ports is a possible solution and would also provide an opportunity to strengthen intermodal solutions as part of an integrated and more sustainable transport chain, acting as a link between road and railway networks. In this sense, implementation of dry ports allows the separation of the links of the transport chain, thus facilitating the shortest possible routes for the lowest capacity and most polluting means of transport. Thus, the decision of where to locate a dry port demands a thorough analysis of the whole logistics supply chain, with the objective of transferring the largest volume of goods possible from road to more energy efficient means of transport, like rail or short-sea shipping, that are less harmful to the environment. However, the decision of where to locate a dry port must also ensure the sustainability of the site. Thus, the main goal of this article is to research the variables influencing the sustainability of dry port location and how this sustainability can be evaluated. With this objective, in this paper we present a methodology for assessing the sustainability of locations by the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Bayesian Networks (BNs). MCDA is used as a way to establish a scoring, whilst BNs were chosen to eliminate arbitrariness in setting the weightings using a technique that allows us to prioritize each variable according to the relationships established in the set of variables. In order to determine the relationships between all the variables involved in the decision, giving us the importance of each factor and variable, we built a K2 BN algorithm. To obtain the scores of each variable, we used a complete cartography analysed by ArcGIS. Recognising that setting the most appropriate location to place a dry port is a geographical multidisciplinary problem, with significant economic, social and environmental implications, we consider 41 variables (grouped into 17 factors) which respond to this need. As a case of study, the sustainability of all of the 10 existing dry ports in Spain has been evaluated. In this set of logistics platforms, we found that the most important variables for achieving sustainability are those related to environmental protection, so the sustainability of the locations requires a great respect for the natural environment and the urban environment in which they are framed.

Diseño e implementación de funcionalidades OpenMP, basadas en modelos de concurrencia desarrollados en lenguaje Go

A raíz de la aparición de los procesadores dotados de varios “cores”, la programación paralela, un concepto que, por otra parte no era nada nuevo y se conocía desde hace décadas, sufrió un nuevo impulso, pues se creía que se podía superar el techo tecnológico que había estado limitando el rendimiento de esta programación durante años. Este impulso se ha ido manteniendo hasta la actualidad, movido por la necesidad de sistemas cada vez más potentes y gracias al abaratamiento de los costes de fabricación. Esta tendencia ha motivado la aparición de nuevo software y lenguajes con componentes orientados precisamente al campo de la programación paralela. Este es el caso del lenguaje Go, desarrollado por Google y lanzado en 2009. Este lenguaje se basa en modelos de concurrencia que lo hacen muy adecuados para abordar desarrollos de naturaleza paralela. Sin embargo, la programación paralela es un campo complejo y heterogéneo, y los programadores son reticentes a utilizar herramientas nuevas, en beneficio de aquellas que ya conocen y les son familiares. Un buen ejemplo son aquellas implementaciones de lenguajes conocidos, pero orientadas a programación paralela, y que siguen las directrices de un estándar ampliamente reconocido y aceptado. Este es el caso del estándar OpenMP, un Interfaz de Programación de Aplicaciones (API) flexible, portable y escalable, orientado a la programación paralela multiproceso en arquitecturas multi-core o multinucleo. Dicho estándar posee actualmente implementaciones en los lenguajes C, C++ y Fortran. Este proyecto nace como un intento de aunar ambos conceptos: un lenguaje emergente con interesantes posibilidades en el campo de la programación paralela, y un estándar reputado y ampliamente extendido, con el que los programadores se encuentran familiarizados. El objetivo principal es el desarrollo de un conjunto de librerías del sistema (que engloben directivas de compilación o pragmas, librerías de ejecución y variables de entorno), soportadas por las características y los modelos de concurrencia propios de Go; y que añadan funcionalidades propias del estándar OpenMP. La idea es añadir funcionalidades que permitan programar en lenguaje Go utilizando la sintaxis que OpenMP proporciona para otros lenguajes, como Fortan y C/C++ (concretamente, similar a esta última), y, de esta forma, dotar al usuario de Go de herramientas para programar estructuras de procesamiento paralelo de forma sencilla y transparente, de la misma manera que lo haría utilizando C/C++.---ABSTRACT---As a result of the appearance of processors equipped with multiple "cores ", parallel programming, a concept which, moreover, it was not new and it was known for decades, suffered a new impulse, because it was believed they could overcome the technological ceiling had been limiting the performance of this program for years. This impulse has been maintained until today, driven by the need for ever more powerful systems and thanks to the decrease in manufacturing costs. This trend has led to the emergence of new software and languages with components guided specifically to the field of parallel programming. This is the case of Go language, developed by Google and released in 2009. This language is based on concurrency models that make it well suited to tackle developments in parallel nature. However, parallel programming is a complex and heterogeneous field, and developers are reluctant to use new tools to benefit those who already know and are familiar. A good example are those implementations from well-known languages, but parallel programming oriented, and witch follow the guidelines of a standard widely recognized and accepted. This is the case of the OpenMP standard, an application programming interface (API), flexible, portable and scalable, parallel programming oriented, and designed for multi-core architectures. This standard currently has implementations in C, C ++ and Fortran. This project was born as an attempt to combine two concepts: an emerging language, with interesting possibilities in the field of parallel programming, and a reputed and widespread standard, with which programmers are familiar with. The main objective is to develop a set of system libraries (which includes compiler directives or pragmas, runtime libraries and environment variables), supported by the characteristics and concurrency patterns of Go; and that add custom features from the OpenMP standard. The idea is to add features that allow programming in Go language using the syntax OpenMP provides for other languages, like Fortran and C / C ++ (specifically, similar to the latter ), and, in this way, provide Go users with tools for programming parallel structures easily and, in the same way they would using C / C ++.

Multi-distributed wireless sensors for monitoring a long distance transport in a reefer container

The study of the temperature gradients in cold stores and containers is a critical issue in the food industry for the quality assurance of products during transport and for minimising losses. This work presents an analysis of the temperatures during the refrigerated transport of 4,320 kg of blueberries in a reefer (set point temperature at ?1ºC) on a container ship from Montevideo (Uruguay) to Verona (Italy). The monitoring was performed by using semi-passive RFID loggers (TurboTag cards). The objective was to carry out a multi-distributed supervision using low-cost, wireless and autonomous sensors for the characterisation of the distribution and spatial gradients of temperatures during a long distance transport. Data analysis shows spatial (phase space) and temporal sequencing diagrams and reveals a significant heterogeneity of temperature at different locations in the container, which highlights the ineffectiveness of a temperature control system based on a single sensor, as is usually done.

Proposal of a trust and reputation model to provide recommendation in open quality oriented environments

El auge y penetración de las nuevas tecnologías junto con la llamada Web Social están cambiando la forma en la que accedemos a la medicina. Cada vez más pacientes y profesionales de la medicina están creando y consumiendo recursos digitales de contenido clínico a través de Internet, surgiendo el problema de cómo asegurar la fiabilidad de estos recursos. Además, un nuevo concepto está apareciendo, el de pervasive healthcare o sanidad ubicua, motivado por pacientes que demandan un acceso a los servicios sanitarios en todo momento y en todo lugar. Este nuevo escenario lleva aparejado un problema de confianza en los proveedores de servicios sanitarios. Las plataformas de eLearning se están erigiendo como paradigma de esta nueva Medicina 2.0 ya que proveen un servicio abierto a la vez que controlado/supervisado a recursos digitales, y facilitan las interacciones y consultas entre usuarios, suponiendo una buena aproximación para esta sanidad ubicua. En estos entornos los problemas de fiabilidad y confianza pueden ser solventados mediante la implementación de mecanismos de recomendación de recursos y personas de manera confiable. Tradicionalmente las plataformas de eLearning ya cuentan con mecanismos de recomendación, si bien están más enfocados a la recomendación de recursos. Para la recomendación de usuarios es necesario acudir a mecanismos más elaborados como son los sistemas de confianza y reputación (trust and reputation) En ambos casos, tanto la recomendación de recursos como el cálculo de la reputación de los usuarios se realiza teniendo en cuenta criterios principalmente subjetivos como son las opiniones de los usuarios. En esta tesis doctoral proponemos un nuevo modelo de confianza y reputación que combina evaluaciones automáticas de los recursos digitales en una plataforma de eLearning, con las opiniones vertidas por los usuarios como resultado de las interacciones con otros usuarios o después de consumir un recurso. El enfoque seguido presenta la novedad de la combinación de una parte objetiva con otra subjetiva, persiguiendo mitigar el efecto de posibles castigos subjetivos por parte de usuarios malintencionados, a la vez que enriquecer las evaluaciones objetivas con información adicional acerca de la capacidad pedagógica del recurso o de la persona. El resultado son recomendaciones siempre adaptadas a los requisitos de los usuarios, y de la máxima calidad tanto técnica como educativa. Esta nueva aproximación requiere una nueva herramienta para su validación in-silico, al no existir ninguna aplicación que permita la simulación de plataformas de eLearning con mecanismos de recomendación de recursos y personas, donde además los recursos sean evaluados objetivamente. Este trabajo de investigación propone pues una nueva herramienta, basada en el paradigma de programación orientada a agentes inteligentes para el modelado de comportamientos complejos de usuarios en plataformas de eLearning. Además, la herramienta permite también la simulación del funcionamiento de este tipo de entornos dedicados al intercambio de conocimiento. La evaluación del trabajo propuesto en este documento de tesis se ha realizado de manera iterativa a lo largo de diferentes escenarios en los que se ha situado al sistema frente a una amplia gama de comportamientos de usuarios. Se ha comparado el rendimiento del modelo de confianza y reputación propuesto frente a dos modos de recomendación tradicionales: a) utilizando sólo las opiniones subjetivas de los usuarios para el cálculo de la reputación y por extensión la recomendación; y b) teniendo en cuenta sólo la calidad objetiva del recurso sin hacer ningún cálculo de reputación. Los resultados obtenidos nos permiten afirmar que el modelo desarrollado mejora la recomendación ofrecida por las aproximaciones tradicionales, mostrando una mayor flexibilidad y capacidad de adaptación a diferentes situaciones. Además, el modelo propuesto es capaz de asegurar la recomendación de nuevos usuarios entrando al sistema frente a la nula recomendación para estos usuarios presentada por el modo de recomendación predominante en otras plataformas que basan la recomendación sólo en las opiniones de otros usuarios. Por último, el paradigma de agentes inteligentes ha probado su valía a la hora de modelar plataformas virtuales complejas orientadas al intercambio de conocimiento, especialmente a la hora de modelar y simular el comportamiento de los usuarios de estos entornos. La herramienta de simulación desarrollada ha permitido la evaluación del modelo de confianza y reputación propuesto en esta tesis en una amplia gama de situaciones diferentes. ABSTRACT Internet is changing everything, and this revolution is especially present in traditionally offline spaces such as medicine. In recent years health consumers and health service providers are actively creating and consuming Web contents stimulated by the emergence of the Social Web. Reliability stands out as the main concern when accessing the overwhelming amount of information available online. Along with this new way of accessing the medicine, new concepts like ubiquitous or pervasive healthcare are appearing. Trustworthiness assessment is gaining relevance: open health provisioning systems require mechanisms that help evaluating individuals’ reputation in pursuit of introducing safety to these open and dynamic environments. Technical Enhanced Learning (TEL) -commonly known as eLearning- platforms arise as a paradigm of this Medicine 2.0. They provide an open while controlled/supervised access to resources generated and shared by users, enhancing what it is being called informal learning. TEL systems also facilitate direct interactions amongst users for consultation, resulting in a good approach to ubiquitous healthcare. The aforementioned reliability and trustworthiness problems can be faced by the implementation of mechanisms for the trusted recommendation of both resources and healthcare services providers. Traditionally, eLearning platforms already integrate recommendation mechanisms, although this recommendations are basically focused on providing an ordered classifications of resources. For users’ recommendation, the implementation of trust and reputation systems appears as the best solution. Nevertheless, both approaches base the recommendation on the information from the subjective opinions of other users of the platform regarding the resources or the users. In this PhD work a novel approach is presented for the recommendation of both resources and users within open environments focused on knowledge exchange, as it is the case of TEL systems for ubiquitous healthcare. The proposed solution adds the objective evaluation of the resources to the traditional subjective personal opinions to estimate the reputation of the resources and of the users of the system. This combined measure, along with the reliability of that calculation, is used to provide trusted recommendations. The integration of opinions and evaluations, subjective and objective, allows the model to defend itself against misbehaviours. Furthermore, it also allows ‘colouring’ cold evaluation values by providing additional quality information such as the educational capacities of a digital resource in an eLearning system. As a result, the recommendations are always adapted to user requirements, and of the maximum technical and educational quality. To our knowledge, the combination of objective assessments and subjective opinions to provide recommendation has not been considered before in the literature. Therefore, for the evaluation of the trust and reputation model defined in this PhD thesis, a new simulation tool will be developed following the agent-oriented programming paradigm. The multi-agent approach allows an easy modelling of independent and proactive behaviours for the simulation of users of the system, conforming a faithful resemblance of real users of TEL platforms. For the evaluation of the proposed work, an iterative approach have been followed, testing the performance of the trust and reputation model while providing recommendation in a varied range of scenarios. A comparison with two traditional recommendation mechanisms was performed: a) using only users’ past opinions about a resource and/or other users; and b) not using any reputation assessment and providing the recommendation considering directly the objective quality of the resources. The results show that the developed model improves traditional approaches at providing recommendations in Technology Enhanced Learning (TEL) platforms, presenting a higher adaptability to different situations, whereas traditional approaches only have good results under favourable conditions. Furthermore the promotion period mechanism implemented successfully helps new users in the system to be recommended for direct interactions as well as the resources created by them. On the contrary OnlyOpinions fails completely and new users are never recommended, while traditional approaches only work partially. Finally, the agent-oriented programming (AOP) paradigm has proven its validity at modelling users’ behaviours in TEL platforms. Intelligent software agents’ characteristics matched the main requirements of the simulation tool. The proactivity, sociability and adaptability of the developed agents allowed reproducing real users’ actions and attitudes through the diverse situations defined in the evaluation framework. The result were independent users, accessing to different resources and communicating amongst them to fulfil their needs, basing these interactions on the recommendations provided by the reputation engine.

Design Parameter Analysis of Point Absorber WEC via an Evolutionary-Algorithm-Based Dimensioning Tool

Wave energy conversion has an essential difference from other renewable energies since the dependence between the devices design and the energy resource is stronger. Dimensioning is therefore considered a key stage when a design project of Wave Energy Converters (WEC) is undertaken. Location, WEC concept, Power Take-Off (PTO) type, control strategy and hydrodynamic resonance considerations are some of the critical aspects to take into account to achieve a good performance. The paper proposes an automatic dimensioning methodology to be accomplished at the initial design project stages and the following elements are described to carry out the study: an optimization design algorithm, its objective functions and restrictions, a PTO model, as well as a procedure to evaluate the WEC energy production. After that, a parametric analysis is included considering different combinations of the key parameters previously introduced. A variety of study cases are analysed from the point of view of energy production for different design-parameters and all of them are compared with a reference case. Finally, a discussion is presented based on the results obtained, and some recommendations to face the WEC design stage are given.

Evolutionary relationships among Rel domains indicate functional diversification by recombination

The recent sequencing of several complete genomes has made it possible to track the evolution of large gene families by their genomic structure. Following the large-scale association of exons encoding domains with well defined functions in invertebrates could be useful in predicting the function of complex multidomain proteins in mammals produced by accretion of domains. With this objective, we have determined the genomic structure of the 14 genes in invertebrates and vertebrates that contain rel domains. The sequence encoding the rel domain is defined by intronic boundaries and has been recombined with at least three structurally and functionally distinct genomic sequences to generate coding sequences for: (i) the rel/Dorsal/NFκB proteins that are retained in the cytoplasm by IkB-like proteins; (ii) the NFATc proteins that sense calcium signals and undergo cytoplasmic-to-nuclear translocation in response to dephosphorylation by calcineurin; and (iii) the TonEBP tonicity-responsive proteins. Remarkably, a single exon in each NFATc family member encodes the entire Ca2+/calcineurin sensing region, including nuclear import/export, calcineurin-binding, and substrate regions. The Rel/Dorsal proteins and the TonEBP proteins are present in Drosophila but not Caenorhabditis elegans. On the other hand, the calcium-responsive NFATc proteins are present only in vertebrates, suggesting that the NFATc family is dedicated to functions specific to vertebrates such as a recombinational immune response, cardiovascular development, and vertebrate-specific aspects of the development and function of the nervous system.

Architecture of a multi-modal dialogue system oriented to multilingual question-answering

In this paper, a proposal of a multi-modal dialogue system oriented to multilingual question-answering is presented. This system includes the following ways of access: voice, text, avatar, gestures and signs language. The proposal is oriented to the question-answering task as a user interaction mechanism. The proposal here presented is in the first stages of its development phase and the architecture is presented for the first time on the base of the experiences in question-answering and dialogues previously developed. The main objective of this research work is the development of a solid platform that will permit the modular integration of the proposed architecture.

The circumstellar environment and evolutionary status of the supergiant B[e] star Wd1-9

Context. Historically, supergiant (sg)B[e] stars have been difficult to include in theoretical schemes for the evolution of massive OB stars. Aims. The location of Wd1-9 within the coeval starburst cluster Westerlund 1 means that it may be placed into a proper evolutionary context and we therefore aim to utilise a comprehensive multiwavelength dataset to determine its physical properties and consequently its relation to other sgB[e] stars and the global population of massive evolved stars within Wd1. Methods. Multi-epoch R- and I-band VLT/UVES and VLT/FORS2 spectra are used to constrain the properties of the circumstellar gas, while an ISO-SWS spectrum covering 2.45−45μm is used to investigate the distribution, geometry and composition of the dust via a semi-analytic irradiated disk model. Radio emission enables a long term mass-loss history to be determined, while X-ray observations reveal the physical nature of high energy processes within the system. Results. Wd1-9 exhibits the rich optical emission line spectrum that is characteristic of sgB[e] stars. Likewise its mid-IR spectrum resembles those of the LMC sgB[e] stars R66 and 126, revealing the presence of equatorially concentrated silicate dust, with a mass of ~10−4M⊙. Extreme historical and ongoing mass loss (≳ 10−4M⊙yr−1) is inferred from the radio observations. The X-ray properties of Wd1-9 imply the presence of high temperature plasma within the system and are directly comparable to a number of confirmed short-period colliding wind binaries within Wd1. Conclusions. The most complete explanation for the observational properties of Wd1-9 is that it is a massive interacting binary currently undergoing, or recently exited from, rapid Roche-lobe overflow, supporting the hypothesis that binarity mediates the formation of (a subset of) sgB[e] stars. The mass loss rate of Wd1-9 is consistent with such an assertion, while viable progenitor and descendent systems are present within Wd1 and comparable sgB[e] binaries have been identified in the Galaxy. Moreover, the rarity of sgB[e] stars - only two examples are identified from a census of ~ 68 young massive Galactic clusters and associations containing ~ 600 post-Main Sequence stars - is explicable given the rapidity (~ 104yr) expected for this phase of massive binary evolution.

Robust linear semi-infinite programming duality under uncertainty

In this paper, we propose a duality theory for semi-infinite linear programming problems under uncertainty in the constraint functions, the objective function, or both, within the framework of robust optimization. We present robust duality by establishing strong duality between the robust counterpart of an uncertain semi-infinite linear program and the optimistic counterpart of its uncertain Lagrangian dual. We show that robust duality holds whenever a robust moment cone is closed and convex. We then establish that the closed-convex robust moment cone condition in the case of constraint-wise uncertainty is in fact necessary and sufficient for robust duality. In other words, the robust moment cone is closed and convex if and only if robust duality holds for every linear objective function of the program. In the case of uncertain problems with affinely parameterized data uncertainty, we establish that robust duality is easily satisfied under a Slater type constraint qualification. Consequently, we derive robust forms of the Farkas lemma for systems of uncertain semi-infinite linear inequalities.

Mathematical programming model for heat exchanger design through optimization of partial objectives

Mathematical programming can be used for the optimal design of shell-and-tube heat exchangers (STHEs). This paper proposes a mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) model for the design of STHEs, following rigorously the standards of the Tubular Exchanger Manufacturers Association (TEMA). Bell–Delaware Method is used for the shell-side calculations. This approach produces a large and non-convex model that cannot be solved to global optimality with the current state of the art solvers. Notwithstanding, it is proposed to perform a sequential optimization approach of partial objective targets through the division of the problem into sets of related equations that are easier to solve. For each one of these problems a heuristic objective function is selected based on the physical behavior of the problem. The global optimal solution of the original problem cannot be ensured even in the case in which each of the sub-problems is solved to global optimality, but at least a very good solution is always guaranteed. Three cases extracted from the literature were studied. The results showed that in all cases the values obtained using the proposed MINLP model containing multiple objective functions improved the values presented in the literature.

Comparative study of RPSALG algorithm for convex semi-infinite programming

The Remez penalty and smoothing algorithm (RPSALG) is a unified framework for penalty and smoothing methods for solving min-max convex semi-infinite programing problems, whose convergence was analyzed in a previous paper of three of the authors. In this paper we consider a partial implementation of RPSALG for solving ordinary convex semi-infinite programming problems. Each iteration of RPSALG involves two types of auxiliary optimization problems: the first one consists of obtaining an approximate solution of some discretized convex problem, while the second one requires to solve a non-convex optimization problem involving the parametric constraints as objective function with the parameter as variable. In this paper we tackle the latter problem with a variant of the cutting angle method called ECAM, a global optimization procedure for solving Lipschitz programming problems. We implement different variants of RPSALG which are compared with the unique publicly available SIP solver, NSIPS, on a battery of test problems.

FPGA implementation of a multi-population PBIL algorithm

Evolutionary-based algorithms play an important role in finding solutions to many problems that are not solved by classical methods, and particularly so for those cases where solutions lie within extreme non-convex multidimensional spaces. The intrinsic parallel structure of evolutionary algorithms are amenable to the simultaneous testing of multiple solutions; this has proved essential to the circumvention of local optima, and such robustness comes with high computational overhead, though custom digital processor use may reduce this cost. This paper presents a new implementation of an old, and almost forgotten, evolutionary algorithm: the population-based incremental learning method. We show that the structure of this algorithm is well suited to implementation within programmable logic, as compared with contemporary genetic algorithms. Further, the inherent concurrency of our FPGA implementation facilitates the integration and testing of micro-populations.

Long-term persistence of multi-drug-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Newport in two dairy herds

Objective - To evaluate the association between maintaining joint hospital and maternity pens;and persistence of multi-drug-resistant (MDR) Salmonella enterica serovar Newport on 2 dairy farms. Design - Observational study. Sample Population - Feces and environmental samples from 2 dairy herds. Procedure - Herds were monitored for fecal shedding of S enterica Newport after outbreaks of clinical disease. Fecal and environmental samples were collected approximately monthly from pens housing sick cows and calving cows and from pens containing lactating cows. Cattle shedding the organism were tested serially on subsequent visits to determine carrier status. One farm was resampled after initiation of interventional procedures, including separation of hospital and maternity pens. Isolates were characterized via serotyping, determination of antimicrobial resistance phenotype, detection of the CMY-2 gene, and DNA fingerprinting. Results - The prevalence (32.4% and 33.3% on farms A and B, respectively) of isolating Salmonella from samples from joint hospital-maternity pens was significantly higher than the prevalence in samples from pens housing preparturient cows (0.8%, both farms) and postparturient cows on Farm B (8.8%). Multi-drug-resistant Salmonella Newport was isolated in high numbers from bedding material, feed refusals, lagoon slurry, and milk filters. One cow excreted the organism for 190 days. Interventional procedures yielded significant reductions in the prevalences of isolating the organism from fecal and environmental samples. Most isolates were of the C2 serogroup and were resistant to third-generation cephalosporins. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance - Management practices may be effective at reducing the persistence of MDR Salmonella spp in dairy herds, thus mitigating animal and public health risk.

Stochastic dynamic programming for election timing: A game theory approach

In this paper, we consider dynamic programming for the election timing in the majoritarian parliamentary system such as in Australia, where the government has a constitutional right to call an early election. This right can give the government an advantage to remain in power for as long as possible by calling an election, when its popularity is high. On the other hand, the opposition's natural objective is to gain power, and it will apply controls termed as "boosts" to reduce the chance of the government being re-elected by introducing policy and economic responses. In this paper, we explore equilibrium solutions to the government, and the opposition strategies in a political game using stochastic dynamic programming. Results are given in terms of the expected remaining life in power, call and boost probabilities at each time at any level of popularity.

The cross-entropy method for continuous multi-extremal optimization

In recent years, the cross-entropy method has been successfully applied to a wide range of discrete optimization tasks. In this paper we consider the cross-entropy method in the context of continuous optimization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the cross-entropy method for solving difficult continuous multi-extremal optimization problems, including those with non-linear constraints.