Dynamic decision networks for decision-making in self-adaptive systems:a case study

Bayesian decision theory is increasingly applied to support decision-making processes under environmental variability and uncertainty. Researchers from application areas like psychology and biomedicine have applied these techniques successfully. However, in the area of software engineering and speci?cally in the area of self-adaptive systems (SASs), little progress has been made in the application of Bayesian decision theory. We believe that techniques based on Bayesian Networks (BNs) are useful for systems that dynamically adapt themselves at runtime to a changing environment, which is usually uncertain. In this paper, we discuss the case for the use of BNs, speci?cally Dynamic Decision Networks (DDNs), to support the decision-making of self-adaptive systems. We present how such a probabilistic model can be used to support the decision making in SASs and justify its applicability. We have applied our DDN-based approach to the case of an adaptive remote data mirroring system. We discuss results, implications and potential bene?ts of the DDN to enhance the development and operation of self-adaptive systems, by providing mechanisms to cope with uncertainty and automatically make the best decision.

Decision support and the criminal justice system:an assessment of the potential for utilising technological decision support in undertaking the prosecutorial decision

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Development of a total system simulation modelling approach for management decision support

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Expert System for Decision-Making Problem in Economics

An expert system (ES) is a class of computer programs developed by researchers in artificial intelligence. In essence, they are programs made up of a set of rules that analyze information about a specific class of problems, as well as provide analysis of the problems, and, depending upon their design, recommend a course of user action in order to implement corrections. ES are computerized tools designed to enhance the quality and availability of knowledge required by decision makers in a wide range of industries. Decision-making is important for the financial institutions involved due to the high level of risk associated with wrong decisions. The process of making decision is complex and unstructured. The existing models for decision-making do not capture the learned knowledge well enough. In this study, we analyze the beneficial aspects of using ES for decision- making process.

The impact of perceived corporate environmental performance on the behavior of capital market decision makers : analysis of food industry companies

Environmental protectionism and sustainable development has been gaining increased attention among governments, investors and consumers alike. As a result, firms are facing growing pressure from the various stakeholders to improve their environmental performance. This study is focusing on the food industry, which in recent years has been a subject of increased scrutiny due to their role in resource consumption, waste generation and unsustainable production practices. Our research is aiming to examine how the financial community evaluates the environmental stewardship of food industry companies as proxied by market reactions in response to environmental news. Are all company related environmental news items evaluated equally, and which financial and non-financial firm-specific attributes can influence market responses? Have there been changes in reactions on the stock exchange in the past two decades?

Essays in environmental economic valuation and decision making in the presence of an environmental disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household's evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household's optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

System-on-a-Chip (SOC) based environmental monitoring platform for the detection of hazardous materials

The purpose of this research is design considerations for environmental monitoring platforms for the detection of hazardous materials using System-on-a-Chip (SoC) design. Design considerations focus on improving key areas such as: (1) sampling methodology; (2) context awareness; and (3) sensor placement. These design considerations for environmental monitoring platforms using wireless sensor networks (WSN) is applied to the detection of methylmercury (MeHg) and environmental parameters affecting its formation (methylation) and deformation (demethylation). ^ The sampling methodology investigates a proof-of-concept for the monitoring of MeHg using three primary components: (1) chemical derivatization; (2) preconcentration using the purge-and-trap (P&T) method; and (3) sensing using Quartz Crystal Microbalance (QCM) sensors. This study focuses on the measurement of inorganic mercury (Hg) (e.g., Hg2+) and applies lessons learned to organic Hg (e.g., MeHg) detection. ^ Context awareness of a WSN and sampling strategies is enhanced by using spatial analysis techniques, namely geostatistical analysis (i.e., classical variography and ordinary point kriging), to help predict the phenomena of interest in unmonitored locations (i.e., locations without sensors). This aids in making more informed decisions on control of the WSN (e.g., communications strategy, power management, resource allocation, sampling rate and strategy, etc.). This methodology improves the precision of controllability by adding potentially significant information of unmonitored locations.^ There are two types of sensors that are investigated in this study for near-optimal placement in a WSN: (1) environmental (e.g., humidity, moisture, temperature, etc.) and (2) visual (e.g., camera) sensors. The near-optimal placement of environmental sensors is found utilizing a strategy which minimizes the variance of spatial analysis based on randomly chosen points representing the sensor locations. Spatial analysis is employed using geostatistical analysis and optimization occurs with Monte Carlo analysis. Visual sensor placement is accomplished for omnidirectional cameras operating in a WSN using an optimal placement metric (OPM) which is calculated for each grid point based on line-of-site (LOS) in a defined number of directions where known obstacles are taken into consideration. Optimal areas of camera placement are determined based on areas generating the largest OPMs. Statistical analysis is examined by using Monte Carlo analysis with varying number of obstacles and cameras in a defined space. ^

An integrated multi-agent framework for optimizing time, cost and environmental impact of construction processes

Environmentally conscious construction has received a significant amount of research attention during the last decades. Even though construction literature is rich in studies that emphasize the importance of environmental impact during the construction phase, most of the previous studies failed to combine environmental analysis with other project performance criteria in construction. This is mainly because most of the studies have overlooked the multi-objective nature of construction projects. In order to achieve environmentally conscious construction, multi-objectives and their relationships need to be successfully analyzed in the complex construction environment. The complex construction system is composed of changing project conditions that have an impact on the relationship between time, cost and environmental impact (TCEI) of construction operations. Yet, this impact is still unknown by construction professionals. Studying this impact is vital to fulfill multiple project objectives and achieve environmentally conscious construction. This research proposes an analytical framework to analyze the impact of changing project conditions on the relationship of TCEI. This study includes green house gas (GHG) emissions as an environmental impact category. The methodology utilizes multi-agent systems, multi-objective optimization, analytical network process, and system dynamics tools to study the relationships of TCEI and support decision-making under the influence of project conditions. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is applied to the evaluation of environmental impact in terms of GHG. The mixed method approach allowed for the collection and analysis of qualitative and quantitative data. Structured interviews of professionals in the highway construction field were conducted to gain their perspectives in decision-making under the influence of certain project conditions, while the quantitative data were collected from the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for highway resurfacing projects. The data collected were used to test the framework. The framework yielded statistically significant results in simulating project conditions and optimizing TCEI. The results showed that the change in project conditions had a significant impact on the TCEI optimal solutions. The correlation between TCEI suggested that they affected each other positively, but in different strengths. The findings of the study will assist contractors to visualize the impact of their decision on the relationship of TCEI.

The potential role of environmental exposures and genomic signaling in development of central nervous system tumors

The etiology of central nervous system tumors (CNSTs) is mainly unknown. Aside from extremely rare genetic conditions, such as neurofibromatosis and tuberous sclerosis, the only unequivocally identified risk factor is exposure to ionizing radiation, and this explains only a very small fraction of cases. Using meta-analysis, gene networking and bioinformatics methods, this dissertation explored the hypothesis that environmental exposures produce genetic and epigenetic alterations that may be involved in the etiology of CNSTs. A meta-analysis of epidemiological studies of pesticides and pediatric brain tumors revealed a significantly increased risk of brain tumors among children whose mothers had farm-related exposures during pregnancy. A dose response was recognized when this risk estimate was compared to those for risk of brain tumors from maternal exposure to non-agricultural pesticides during pregnancy, and risk of brain tumors among children exposed to agricultural activities. Through meta-analysis of several microarray studies which compared normal tissue to astrocytomas, we were able to identify a list of 554 genes which were differentially expressed in the majority of astrocytomas. Many of these genes have in fact been implicated in development of astrocytoma, including EGFR, HIF-1α, c-Myc, WNT5A, and IDH3A. Reverse engineering of these 554 genes using Bayesian network analysis produced a gene network for each grade of astrocytoma (Grade I-IV), and ‘key genes’ within each grade were identified. Genes found to be most influential to development of the highest grade of astrocytoma, Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) were: COL4A1, EGFR, BTF3, MPP2, RAB31, CDK4, CD99, ANXA2, TOP2A, and SERBP1. Lastly, bioinformatics analysis of environmental databases and curated published results on GBM was able to identify numerous potential pathways and geneenvironment interactions that may play key roles in astrocytoma development. Findings from this research have strong potential to advance our understanding of the etiology and susceptibility to CNSTs. Validation of our ‘key genes’ and pathways could potentially lead to useful tools for early detection and novel therapeutic options for these tumors.

Essays in Environmental Economic Valuation and Decision Making in the Presence of an Environmental Disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household’s evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household’s optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

Applying life cycle assessment to analyze the environmental sustainability of public transit modes for the City of Toronto

One challenge related to transit planning is selecting the appropriate mode: bus, light rail transit (LRT), regional express rail (RER), or subway. This project uses data from life cycle assessment to develop a tool to measure energy requirements for different modes of transit, on a per passenger-kilometer basis. For each of the four transit modes listed, a range of energy requirements associated with different vehicle models and manufacturers was developed. The tool demonstrated that there are distinct ranges where specific transit modes are the best choice. Diesel buses are the clear best choice from 7-51 passengers, LRTs make the most sense from 201-427 passengers, and subways are the best choice above 918 passengers. There are a number of other passenger loading ranges where more than one transit mode makes sense; in particular, LRT and RER represent very energy-efficient options for ridership ranging from 200 to 900 passengers. The tool developed in the thesis was used to analyze the Bloor-Danforth subway line in Toronto using estimated ridership for weekday morning peak hours. It was found that ridership across the line is for the most part actually insufficient to justify subways over LRTs or RER. This suggests that extensions to the existing Bloor-Danforth line should consider LRT options, which could service the passenger loads at the ends of the line with far greater energy efficiency. It was also clear that additional destinations along the entire transit line are necessary to increase the per passenger-kilometer energy efficiency, as the current pattern of commuting to downtown leaves much of the system underutilized. It is hoped that the tool developed in this thesis can be used as an additional resource in the transit mode decision-making process for many developing transportation systems, including the transit systems across the GTHA.

Adapting the social-ecological system framework for urban stormwater management: the case of green infrastructure adoption

Stormwater management has long been a critical societal and environmental challenge for communities. An increasing number of municipalities are turning to novel approaches such as green infrastructure to develop more sustainable stormwater management systems. However, there is a need to better understand the technological decision-making processes that lead to specific outcomes within urban stormwater governance systems. We used the social-ecological system (SES) framework to build a classification system for identifying significant variables that influence urban stormwater governance decisions related to green infrastructure adoption. To adapt the framework, we relied on findings from observations at national stormwater meetings in combination with a systematic literature review on influential factors related to green infrastructure adoption. We discuss our revisions to the framework that helped us understand the decision by municipal governments to adopt green infrastructure. Remaining research needs and challenges are discussed regarding the development of an urban stormwater SES framework as a classification tool for knowledge accumulation and synthesis.

DEVELOPMENT OF A DECISION/DEPLOYMENT SUPPORT TOOL FOR VARIABLE SPEED LIMITS IN RECURRENT CONGESTION

Traffic demand increases are pushing aging ground transportation infrastructures to their theoretical capacity. The result of this demand is traffic bottlenecks that are a major cause of delay on urban freeways. In addition, the queues associated with those bottlenecks increase the probability of a crash while adversely affecting environmental measures such as emissions and fuel consumption. With limited resources available for network expansion, traffic professionals have developed active traffic management systems (ATMS) in an attempt to mitigate the negative consequences of traffic bottlenecks. Among these ATMS strategies, variable speed limits (VSL) and ramp metering (RM) have been gaining international interests for their potential to improve safety, mobility, and environmental measures at freeway bottlenecks. Though previous studies have shown the tremendous potential of variable speed limit (VSL) and VSL paired with ramp metering (VSLRM) control, little guidance has been developed to assist decision makers in the planning phase of a congestion mitigation project that is considering VSL or VSLRM control. To address this need, this study has developed a comprehensive decision/deployment support tool for the application of VSL and VSLRM control in recurrently congested environments. The decision tool will assist practitioners in deciding the most appropriate control strategy at a candidate site, which candidate sites have the most potential to benefit from the suggested control strategy, and how to most effectively design the field deployment of the suggested control strategy at each implementation site. To do so, the tool is comprised of three key modules, (1) Decision Module, (2) Benefits Module, and (3) Deployment Guidelines Module. Each module uses commonly known traffic flow and geometric parameters as inputs to statistical models and empirically based procedures to provide guidance on the application of VSL and VSLRM at each candidate site. These models and procedures were developed from the outputs of simulated experiments, calibrated with field data. To demonstrate the application of the tool, a list of real-world candidate sites were selected from the Maryland State Highway Administration Mobility Report. Here, field data from each candidate site was input into the tool to illustrate the step-by-step process required for efficient planning of VSL or VSLRM control. The output of the tool includes the suggested control system at each site, a ranking of the sites based on the expected benefit-to-cost ratio, and guidelines on how to deploy the VSL signs, ramp meters, and detectors at the deployment site(s). This research has the potential to assist traffic engineers in the planning of VSL and VSLRM control, thus enhancing the procedure for allocating limited resources for mobility and safety improvements on highways plagued by recurrent congestion.

Preparation of environmental monitoring plan pattern for surface water quality in Iran (Case study: Gharehsou River)

Using water quality management programs is a necessary and inevitable way for preservation and sustainable use of water resources. One of the important issues in determining the quality of water in rivers is designing effective quality control networks, so that the measured quality variables in these stations are, as far as possible, indicative of overall changes in water quality. One of the methods to achieve this goal is increasing the number of quality monitoring stations and sampling instances. Since this will dramatically increase the annual cost of monitoring, deciding on which stations and parameters are the most important ones, along with increasing the instances of sampling, in a way that shows maximum change in the system under study can affect the future decision-making processes for optimizing the efficacy of extant monitoring network, removing or adding new stations or parameters and decreasing or increasing sampling instances. This end, the efficiency of multivariate statistical procedures was studied in this thesis. Multivariate statistical procedure, with regard to its features, can be used as a practical and useful method in recognizing and analyzing rivers’ pollution and consequently in understanding, reasoning, controlling, and correct decision-making in water quality management. This research was carried out using multivariate statistical techniques for analyzing the quality of water and monitoring the variables affecting its quality in Gharasou river, in Ardabil province in northwest of Iran. During a year, 28 physical and chemical parameters were sampled in 11 stations. The results of these measurements were analyzed by multivariate procedures such as: Cluster Analysis (CA), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Factor Analysis (FA), and Discriminant Analysis (DA). Based on the findings from cluster analysis, principal component analysis, and factor analysis the stations were divided into three groups of highly polluted (HP), moderately polluted (MP), and less polluted (LP) stations Thus, this study illustrates the usefulness of multivariate statistical techniques for analysis and interpretation of complex data sets, and in water quality assessment, identification of pollution sources/factors and understanding spatial variations in water quality for effective river water quality management. This study also shows the effectiveness of these techniques for getting better information about the water quality and design of monitoring network for effective management of water resources. Therefore, based on the results, Gharasou river water quality monitoring program was developed and presented.

Standardized environmental management systems as an internal management tool

In a principal-agent model we analyze the firm’s decision to adopt an informal or a standardized Environmental Management System (EMS). Our results are consistent with empirical evidence in several respects. A standardized EMS increases the internal control at the cost of introducing some degree of rigidity that entails an endogenous setup cost. Standardized systems are more prone to be adopted by big and well established firms and under tougher environmental policies. Firms with standardized EMS tend to devote more effort to abatement although this effort results in lower pollution only if public incentives are strong enough, suggesting a complementarity relationship between standardized EMS and public policies. Emission charges have both a marginal effect on abatement and a qualitative effect on the adoption decision that may induce a conflict between private and public interests. As a result of the combination of these two effects it can be optimal for the government to distort the tax in a specific way in order to push the firm to choose the socially optimal EMS. The introduction of standardized systems can result in win-win situations where firms, society and the environment get better off.