Model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using roadside air quality measurements

Most of the air quality modelling work has been so far oriented towards deterministic simulations of ambient pollutant concentrations. This traditional approach, which is based on the use of one selected model and one data set of discrete input values, does not reflect the uncertainties due to errors in model formulation and input data. Given the complexities of urban environments and the inherent limitations of mathematical modelling, it is unlikely that a single model based on routinely available meteorological and emission data will give satisfactory short-term predictions. In this study, different methods involving the use of more than one dispersion model, in association with different emission simulation methodologies and meteorological data sets, were explored for predicting best CO and benzene estimates, and related confidence bounds. The different approaches were tested using experimental data obtained during intensive monitoring campaigns in busy street canyons in Paris, France. Three relative simple dispersion models (STREET, OSPM and AEOLIUS) that are likely to be used for regulatory purposes were selected for this application. A sensitivity analysis was conducted in order to identify internal model parameters that might significantly affect results. Finally, a probabilistic methodology for assessing urban air quality was proposed.

Experimental and modeling analysis of the reliability of the anisotropic conductive films

Experiments as well as computer modeling methods have been used to investigate the effect of the solder reflow process on the electrical characteristics and reliability of anisotropic conductive film (ACF) interconnections. In the experiments, the contact resistance of the ACF interconnections was found to increase after a subsequent reflow and the magnitude of this increase was strongly correlated to the peak temperature of the reflow profile. In fact, nearly 40 percent of the joints were opened (i.e. lifted away from the pad) after the reflow with a peak temperature of 260 OC while no openings was observed when the peak temperature was 210 "C. It is believed that the CTE mismatch between the polymer particle and the adhesive matrix is the main cause of this contact degradation. To understand this phenomenon better, a 3-D model of an ACF joint structure was built and Finite Element Analysis was used to predict the stress distrihution in the conductive particles, adhesive matrix and metal pads during the reflow process. The effects of the peak temperature, the CTE of the adhesive matrix and the bump height on the reliability of the ACF interconnections were discussed.

No-flow underfill flip chip assembly–an experimental and modeling analysis

In the flip-chip assembly process, no-flow underfill materials have a particular advantage over traditional underfill: the application and curing of the former can be undertaken before and during the reflow process. This advantage can be exploited to increase the flip-chip manufacturing throughput. However, adopting a no-flow underfill process may introduce reliability issues such as underfill entrapment, delamination at interfaces between underfill and other materials, and lower solder joint fatigue life. This paper presents an analysis on the assembly and the reliability of flip-chips with no-flow underfill. The methodology adopted in the work is a combination of experimental and computer-modeling methods. Two types of no-flow underfill materials have been used for the flip chips. The samples have been inspected with X-ray and scanning acoustic microscope inspection systems to find voids and other defects. Eleven samples for each type of underfill material have been subjected to thermal shock test and the number of cycles to failure for these flip chips have been found. In the computer modeling part of the work, a comprehensive parametric study has provided details on the relationship between the material properties and reliability, and on how underfill entrapment may affect the thermal–mechanical fatigue life of flip chips with no-flow underfill.

A modelling and experimental analysis of the no-flow underfill process for flip-chip assembly

In the flip-chip assembly process, no-flow underfill materials have a particular advantage over traditional underfills as the application and curing of this type of underfill can be undertaken before and during the reflow process - adding high volume throughput. Adopting a no-flow underfill process may result in underfill entrapment between solder and fluid, voiding in the underfill, a possible delamination between underfill and surrounding surfaces. The magnitude of these phenomena may adversely affect the reliability of the assembly in terms of solder joint thermal fatigue. This paper presents both an experimental and mdeling analysis investigating the reliabity of a flip-chip component and how the magnitude of underfill entrapment may affect thermal-mechanical fatigue life.

Experimental and Modelling Analysis on the Moisture Induced Failures in Flip Chip on Flex Interconnections with Anisotropic Conductive Film

This paper reports the investigations into the moisture induced failures in flip-chip-on-flex interconnections with anisotropic conductive films (ACF). Both experimental and modeling methods were applied. In the experiments, the contact resistance was used as a quality indicator and was measured continuously during the accelerated tests (autoclave tests). The temperature, relative humidity and the pressure were set at 121°C, 100%RH, 1atm respectively. The contact resistance of the ACF joints increased during the tests and nearly 25% of the joints were found to be open after 168 hours' testing time. Visible conduction gaps between the adhesive and substrate pads were observed. Cracks at the adhesive/flex interface were also found. It is believed that the swelling effect of the adhesive and the water penetration along the adhesive/flex interface are the main causes of this contact degradation. Another finding from the experimental work was that the ACF interconnections that had undergone the reflow treatment were more sensitive to the moisture and showed worse reliability during the tests. For a better understanding of the experimental results, 3D finite element (FE) models were built and a macro-micro modeling method was used to determine the moisture diffusion and moisture-induced stresses inside the ACF joints. Modeling results are consistent with the findings in the experimental work.

Experimental study and theoretical analysis of signage legibility distances as a function of observation angle

Signage systems are widely used in buildings to provide information for wayfinding, thereby assisting in navigation during normal circulation of pedestrians and, more importantly, exiting information during emergencies. An important consideration in determining the effectiveness of signs is establishing the region from which the sign is visible to occupants, the so-called Visibility Catchment Area (VCA). This paper attempts to factor into the determination of the VCA of signs, the observation angle of the observer using both experimental and theoretical analysis.

The UK WTC 9/11 evacuation study: an overview of the methodologies employed and some analysis relating to fatigue, stair travel speeds and occupant response times

This paper briefly describes the methodologies employed in the collection and storage of first-hand accounts of evacuation experiences derived from face-to-face interviews with evacuees from the World Trade Center (WTC) Twin Towers complex on 11 September 2001 and the development of the High-rise Evacuation Evaluation Database (HEED). The main focus of the paper is to present an overview of preliminary analysis of data derived from the evacuation of the North Tower.

Kinematics and EMG analysis of expert pole vaulter's lower limb during take off phase (P218)

Introduction: The critical phase, in jumping events in track and field, appears to be between touchdown and take-off. Since obvious similarities exist between the take off phase in both long jump and pole vault, numerous 3D kinematics and electromyographic studies have only looked at long jump. Currently there are few detailed kinematics electromyographic data on the pole vault take-off phase. The aim of this study was therefore to characterise kinematics and electromyographic variables during the take-off phase to provide a better understanding of this phase in pole vaulting and its role in performance outcome. Material and methods: Six pole-vaulters took part in the study. Kinematics data were captured with retro reflective markers fixed on the body. Hip, knee and ankle angle were calculated. Differential bipolar surface electrodes were placed on the following muscles of the take-off leg: tibialis anterior, lateral gastrocnemius, vastus lateralis, rectus femoris, bicep femoris and gluteus maximus. EMG activity was synchronously acquired with the kinematic data. EMG data were rectified and smoothed using a second order low pass Butterworth Bidirectional filter (resulting in a 4th order filter) with a cut-off frequency of 14 Hz. Results: Evolution of hip, knee and ankle angle show no significant differences during the last step before touchdown, the take-off phase and the beginning of fly phase. Meanwhile, strong differences in EMG signal are noted inter and intra pole vaulter. However for a same subject the EMG activities seem to converge to some phase locked point. Discussion: All pole vaulters have approximately the same visible coordination This coordination reflects a different muscular control among pole vaulters but also for a considered pole vaulter. These phase locked point could be considered as invariant of motor control i.e. a prerequisite for a normal sequence of the movement and performance realization.

Strategies for water pollution control in Dhaka, Bangladesh: an institutional and economic analysis

This paper presents primary data based on research carried out as part of a large World Bank project. Results from our survey show that water pollution in Dhaka watershed has reached alarming levels and is posing significant threats to health and economic activity, particularly among the poor and vulnerable. Rice productivity in the watershed area, for example, has declined by 40% in recent years and vegetable cultivation in the riverbeds has been severely damaged. We also found significant correlation between water pollution and diseases such as jaundice, diarrhoea and skin problems. It was reported that the cost of treatment of skin diseases for one episode could be as high as 29% of the weekly earnings of poor households. Given the magnitude of the contamination problem, a multi-agent stakeholder approach was necessary to analyse the institutional and economic constraints that would need to be addressed in order to improve environmental management. This approach, in turn, enabled core strategies to be developed. The strategies were better understood around three types of actors in industrial pollution, i.e. (1) principal actors, who contribute directly to industrial pollution; (2) stakeholders, who exacerbate the situation by inaction; and (3) the potential actors in mitigation of water contamination. Within a carrot-and-stick framework, nine strategies leading to the strengthening of environmental management were explored. They aim at improving governance and transparency within public agencies and private industry through the setting up of incentive structures to advance compliance and enforcement of environmental standards. Civil society and the population at large are, on the other hand, encouraged to contribute actively to the mitigation of water pollution by improving the management of environmental information and by raising public awareness.

English Channel towed sledge seabed images. Phase 1: scoping study and example analysis

During the 1970’s and 1980’s, the late Dr Norman Holme undertook extensive towed sledge surveys in the English Channel and some in the Irish Sea. Only a minority of the resulting images were analysed and reported before his death in 1989 but logbooks, video and film material has been archived in the National Marine Biological Library (NMBL) in Plymouth. A scoping study was therefore commissioned by the Joint Nature Conservation Committee and as a part of the Mapping European Seabed Habitats (MESH) project to identify the value of the material archived and the procedure and cost to undertake further work. The results of the scoping study are: 1. NMBL archives hold 106 videotapes (reel-to-reel Sony HD format) and 59 video cassettes (including 15 from the Irish Sea) in VHS format together with 90 rolls of 35 mm colour transparency film (various lengths up to about 240 frames per film). These are stored in the Archive Room, either in a storage cabinet or in original film canisters. 2. Reel-to-reel material is extensive and had already been selectively copied to VHS cassettes. The cost of transferring it to an accepted ‘long-life’ medium (Betamax) would be approximately £15,000. It was not possible to view the tapes as a suitable machine was not located. The value of the tapes is uncertain but they are likely to become beyond salvation within one to two years. 3. Video cassette material is in good condition and is expected to remain so for several more years at least. Images viewed were generally of poor quality and the speed of tow often makes pictures blurred. No immediate action is required. 4. Colour transparency films are in good condition and the images are very clear. They provide the best source of information for mapping seabed biotopes. They should be scanned to digital format but inexpensive fast copying is problematic as there are no between-frame breaks between images and machines need to centre the image based on between-frame breaks. The minimum cost to scan all of the images commercially is approximately £6,000 and could be as much as £40,000 on some quotations. There is a further cost in coding and databasing each image and, all-in-all it would seem most economic to purchase a ‘continuous film’ scanner and undertake the work in-house. 5. Positional information in ships logs has been matched to films and to video tapes. Decca Chain co-ordinates recorded in the logbooks have been converted to latitude and longitude (degrees, minutes and seconds) and a further routine developed to convert to degrees and decimal degrees required for GIS mapping. However, it is unclear whether corrections to Decca positions were applied at the time the position was noted. Tow tracks have been mapped onto an electronic copy of a Hydrographic Office chart. 6. The positions of start and end of each tow were entered to a spread sheet so that they can be displayed on GIS or on a Hydrographic Office Chart backdrop. The cost of the Hydrographic Office chart backdrop at a scale of 1:75,000 for the whole area was £458 incl. VAT. 7. Viewing all of the video cassettes to note habitats and biological communities, even by an experienced marine biologist, would take at least in the order of 200 hours and is not recommended. English Channel towed sledge seabed images. Phase 1: scoping study and example analysis. 6 8. Once colour transparencies are scanned and indexed, viewing to identify seabed habitats and biological communities would probably take about 100 hours for an experienced marine biologist and is recommended. 9. It is expected that identifying biotopes along approximately 1 km lengths of each tow would be feasible although uncertainties about Decca co-ordinate corrections and exact positions of images most likely gives a ±250 m position error. More work to locate each image accurately and solve the Decca correction question would improve accuracy of image location. 10. Using codings (produced by Holme to identify different seabed types), and some viewing of video and transparency material, 10 biotopes have been identified, although more would be added as a result of full analysis. 11. Using the data available from the Holme archive, it is possible to populate various fields within the Marine Recorder database. The overall ‘survey’ will be ‘English Channel towed video sled survey’. The ‘events’ become the 104 tows. Each tow could be described as four samples, i.e. the start and end of the tow and two areas in the middle to give examples along the length of the tow. These samples would have their own latitude/longitude co-ordinates. The four samples would link to a GIS map. 12. Stills and video clips together with text information could be incorporated into a multimedia presentation, to demonstrate the range of level seabed types found along a part of the northern English Channel. More recent images taken during SCUBA diving of reef habitats in the same area as the towed sledge surveys could be added to the Holme images.