Commodity futures prices: more evidence on forecast power, risk premia and the theory of storage

In this paper, we examine the temporal stability of the evidence for two commodity futures pricing theories. We investigate whether the forecast power of commodity futures can be attributed to the extent to which they exhibit seasonality and we also consider whether there are time varying parameters or structural breaks in these pricing relationships. Compared to previous studies, we find stronger evidence of seasonality in the basis, which supports the theory of storage. The power of the basis to forecast subsequent price changes is also strengthened, while results on the presence of a risk premium are inconclusive. In addition, we show that the forecasting power of commodity futures cannot be attributed to the extent to which they exhibit seasonality. We find that in most cases where structural breaks occur, only changes in the intercepts and not the slopes are detected, illustrating that the forecast power of the basis is stable over different economic environments.

Lessons from the private finance initiative in the UK: benefits, problems and critical success factors

Purpose – This paper summarises the main research findings from a detailed, qualitative set of structured interviews and case studies of private finance initiative (PFI) schemes in the UK, which involve the construction of built facilities. The research, which was funded by the Foundation for the Built Environment, examines the emergence of PFI in the UK. Benefits and problems in the PFI process are investigated. Best practice, the key critical factors for success, and lessons for the future are also analysed. Design/methodology/approach – The research is based around 11 semi-structured interviews conducted with stakeholders in key PFI projects in the UK. Findings – The research demonstrates that value for money and risk transfer are key success criteria. High procurement and transaction costs are a feature of PFI projects, and the large-scale nature of PFI projects frequently acts as barrier to entry. Research limitations/implications – The research is based on a limited number of in-depth case study interviews. The paper also shows that further research is needed to find better ways to measure these concepts empirically. Practical implications – The paper is important in highlighting four main areas of practical improvement in the PFI process: value for money assessment; establishing end-user needs; developing competitive markets and developing appropriate skills in the public sector. Originality/value – The paper examines the drivers, barriers and critical success factors for PFI in the UK for the first time in detail and will be of value to property investors, financiers, and others involved in the PFI process.

State ownership, bank loans, and corporate investment

We study the effect of bank loans on Chinese publicly listed firms' investment decisions based on the underinvestment and overinvestment theories of leverage. Evidence from China is of particular importance because China is the world's largest emerging and transitional economy. At first we show that there is a negative relationship between bank loan ratios and investment for Chinese publicly listed firms. And this negative relationship is much stronger for firms with low growth than firms with high growth. Secondly, we find that both short-term and long-term loan ratios are negatively correlated with investment. However, the higher the long-term loan ratios are, the weaker the negative relationship between long-term loan ratios and investment is. Thirdly, firm ownership only matters to the effect of short-term bank loans on investment in our sample. That is, the negative relationship between short-term loan ratios and investment is weaker for SOEs than for non-SOEs. Lastly, we show that the reform of China's banking system in 2003 has not strengthened the negative relationship between bank loans and investment. Our findings suggest that although Chinese state-owned banks are severely intervened by government policies, they still have a disciplining role on firms' investment, especially in firms with low growth.

Russian Arctic Ports : Problems with the development and management of tourist flows

The potential changes to the territory of the Russian Arctic open up unique possibilities for the development of tourism. More favourable transport opportunities along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) create opportunities for tourism development based on the utilisation of the extensive areas of sea shores and river basins. A major challenge for the Russian Arctic sea and river ports is their strong cargo transport orientation originated by natural resource extraction industries. A careful assessment of the prospects of current and future tourism development is presented here based on the development of regions located along the shores of the Arctic ocean (including Murmansk and Arkhangelsk oblast, Nenets Autonomous okrug (AO), Yamal-Nenets AO, Taymyr AO, Republic of Sakha, Chykotsky AO). An evaluation of the present development of tourism in maritime cities suggests that a considerable qualitative and quantitative increase of tourism activities organised by domestic tourism firms is made virtually impossible. There are several factors contributing to this. The previously established Soviet system of state support for the investments into the port facilities as well as the sea fleet were not effectively replaced by creation of new structures. The necessary investments for reconstruction could be contributed by the federal government but the priorities are not set towards the increased passenger transportation. Having in mind, increased environmental pressures in this highly sensitive area it is especially vital to establish a well-functioning monitoring and rescue system in the situation of ever increasing risks which come not only from the increased transports along the NSR, but also from the exploitation of the offshore oil and gas reserves in the Arctic seas. The capacity and knowledge established in Nordic countries (Norway, Finland) concerning cruise tourism should not be underestimated and the already functioning cooperation in Barents Region should expand towards this particular segment of the tourism industry. The current stage of economic development in Russia makes it clear that tourism development is not able to compete with the well-needed increase in the cargo transportation, which means that Russia’s fleet is going to be utilised by other industries. However, opening up this area to both local and international visitors could contribute to the economic prosperity of these remote areas and if carefully managed could sustain already existing maritime cities along the shores of the Arctic Ocean.

From industrial economics to digital economics: an introduction to the transition

Includes bibliography

Influence of abutment-to-fixture design on reliability and failure mode of all-ceramic crown systems

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modelagem matemática: uma abordagem do método gráfico e do método simplex na resolução de problemas de otimização

Pós-graduação em Matemática em Rede Nacional - IBILCE

RB31-258 The Contribution fo Nebraska Farm Women to Family Income Through Poultry and Dairy Products

This investigation was made in 1929-1930 for the purpose of studying the activities of Nebraska farm women in the raising of poultry and in the care of dairy products, to discover whether or not such activities resulted in a contribution to the family income. With this in view, a group of women were asked to keep records for one year (from April 1, 1929 to March 31, 1930) of the value and amount of dairy and poultry products sold or used, of all expense incurred in production, and of the time spent both by the homemaker herself and by all other members of the household, in the production and sale of dairy and poultry products. When this study was outlined it was intended to cover only actual cash addition to the family income. This, however, did not prove to be feasible, as a considerable portion of the contribution to the family income was in the form of dairy and poultry products used at home.

Who Suffers Most when Disease Outbreaks and Food Recalls Happen? The Case of Mad Cow Disease in the United States

It is generally observed that whenever there are cases of disease outbreaks and food recalls, such as the case of the 2003 Mad Cow Disease (Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy or BSE) outbreak, cattle and beef prices fall. Given these incidents, there is the question of which part of the marketing chain is the most affected. For those who produce live cattle, such as feedlot operators, the question is ‘what effect these events have on price and demand for beef and cattle?’ Similarly, how do the Food Safety Inspection Service (FSIS) recalls and diseases such as Mad Cow Disease outbreaks affect the beef marketing margins at all levels in the U.S. beef marketing chain? Identifying these effects along the marketing chain provides insight into which level along that channel is the most vulnerable to these events. In addition, this information helps to assess the impact of such events on the industry, providing a basis for policy formulation.

Sanctions and public enforcement of insider trading laws in Europe

The recent financial crisis triggered an increasing demand for financial regulation to counteract the potential negative economic effects of the evermore complex operations and instruments available on financial markets. As a result, insider trading regulation counts amongst the relatively recent but particularly active regulation battles in Europe and overseas. Claims for more transparency and equitable securities markets proliferate, ranging from concerns about investor protection to global market stability. The internationalization of the world’s securities market has challenged traditional notions of regulation and enforcement. Considering that insider trading is currently forbidden all over Europe, this study follows a law and economics approach in identifying how this prohibition should be enforced. More precisely, the study investigates first whether criminal law is necessary under all circumstances to enforce insider trading; second, if it should be introduced at EU level. This study provides evidence of law and economics theoretical logic underlying the legal mechanisms that guide sanctioning and public enforcement of the insider trading prohibition by identifying optimal forms, natures and types of sanctions that effectively induce insider trading deterrence. The analysis further aims to reveal the economic rationality that drives the potential need for harmonization of criminal enforcement of insider trading laws within the European environment by proceeding to a comparative analysis of the current legislations of height selected Member States. This work also assesses the European Union’s most recent initiative through a critical analysis of the proposal for a Directive on criminal sanctions for Market Abuse. Based on the conclusions drawn from its close analysis, the study takes on the challenge of analyzing whether or not the actual European public enforcement of the laws prohibiting insider trading is coherent with the theoretical law and economics recommendations, and how these enforcement practices could be improved.

Monitoring and Assessment of Desertification and Land Degradation: Knowledge Management, Institutions and Economics: White Paper of the DSD Working Group 3

The White Paper is a review of leading scientific knowledge on the role of knowledge management, institutions and economics in monitoring and assessment of land degradation and desertification. It provides key recommendations for more effective policies and actions for combating desertification both withn the UNCCD and beyond. This White Paper is the result of an international collaboration and consultation led jointly by the Association of DesertNet International and the United Nations University - Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), of the Dryland Science for Development Consortium (DSD). The findings were presented at the First UNCCD Scientific Conference held during the COP-9 in Buenos Aires, 2009.

On The Choice and Impacts of Innovative International Food Assistance Instruments

The rise of new food assistance instruments, including local and regional procurement, cash, and vouchers, has surpassed increase in understanding of the tradeoffs among and impacts of these options relative to traditional food aid. Response choices rarely appear to result from systematic response analyses. Further, impacts along multiple dimensions-timeliness, cost-effectiveness, local market effects, recipient satisfaction, food quality, impact on smallholder suppliers, etc.-may be competing or synergistic. No single food assistance tool is always and everywhere preferable. A growing body of evidence, including the papers in this special section, nonetheless demonstrates the clear value-added of new food assistance instruments. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Market Prices and Food Aid Local and Regional Procurement and Distribution: A Multi-Country Analysis

To date, no research has rigorously addressed the concern that local and regional procurement (LRP) of food aid could affect food prices and food price volatility in food aid source and recipient countries. We assemble spatially and temporally disaggregated data and estimate the relationship between food prices and their volatility and local food aid procurement and distribution across seven countries for several commodities. In most cases, LRP activities have no statistically significant relationship with either local price levels or food price volatility. The few exceptions underscore the importance of market monitoring. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Timeliness and Cost-Effectiveness of the Local and Regional Procurement of Food Aid

Local and regional procurement (LRP) of food aid is often claimed to lead to quicker and more cost-effective response. We generate timeliness and cost-effectiveness estimates by comparing US-funded LRP activities in nine countries against in-kind, transoceanic food aid shipments from the US to the same countries during the same timeframe. Procuring food locally or distributing cash or vouchers results in a time savings of nearly 14 weeks, a 62 percent gain. Cost-effectiveness varies significantly by commodity type. Procuring grains locally saved over 50 percent, on average, while local procurement of processed commodities was not always cost-effective. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tradeoffs or Synergies? Assessing Local and Regional Food Aid Procurement through Case Studies in Burkina Faso and Guatemala

We compare the impacts across a range of criteria of local and regional procurement (LRP) relative to transoceanic shipment of food aid in Burkina Faso and Guatemala. We find that neither instrument dominates the other across all criteria in either country, although LRP commonly performs at least as well as transoceanic shipment with respect to timeliness, cost, market price impacts, satisfying recipients' preferences, food quality and safety, and in benefiting smallholder suppliers. LRP is plainly a valuable food assistance tool, but its advantages and disadvantages must be carefully weighed, compared, and prioritized depending on the context and program objectives. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.