Industrial deepening in East Asia

Structural transformations are an indispensable element of sustained economic growth. Within the context of East Asia, this study focuses on industrial deepening, which refers to the formation of local linkages and the creation of a robust local supplier base. To investigate the progress of industrial deepening, this study introduces two kinds of domestic procurement measures in addition to the previously developed local content measures. Specifically, two kinds of vertical specialization measures are used to demonstrate the degree to which respective East Asian economies are specialized within their vertical production networks. The results clearly show that the advancement of production networks is likely to reduce domestic procurement ratios, even if local supplier bases are strengthened in the respective countries. Moreover, the trend of domestic procurement ratios differs depending on the characteristics of particular industries and the industrial policies adopted by individual countries.

Migration, labor and business in the worlding cities of the Arabian Peninsula

This short essay, built on a foundation of more than a decade of fieldwork in the hydrocarbon-rich societies of the Arabian peninsula, distills a set of overarching threads woven through much of that time and work. Those threads include a discussion of the social heterogeneity of the Gulf State citizenries, the central role of development and urban development in these emergent economies, the multifaceted impact of migrants and migration upon these host societies, and the role of foreign 'imagineers' in the portrayal of Gulf societies, Gulf values, and Gulf social norms.

The supply chain in East Asia

East Asia is a major tea-consuming and -producing area; however, few studies have examined the East Asian tea industry from the perspective of the supply chain. Based on field and desktop studies of the tea markets in Taiwan and China, this paper provides an overview of each market together with detailed case studies. In this analysis, the characteristics of the tea industry and the main problems in the current supply chain in terms of governance, upgrading, and food safety and quality control are identified. This paper will help fill the gap in studies of the East Asian tea industry from the perspective of the supply chain.

Comparing the economic impacts of Asian integration by computational simulation analysis

The Geographical Simulation Model developed by IDE-JETRO (IDE-GSM) is a computer simulation model based on spatial economics. IDE-GSM enables us to predict the economic impacts of various trade and transport facilitation measures. Here, we mainly compare the prioritized projects of the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC) and the Comprehensive Asia Development Plan (CADP). MPAC focus on specific hard or soft infrastructure projects that connect one ASEAN member state to another while the CADP emphasizes the importance of economic corridors or linkages between a large cluster and another cluster. As compared with MPAC projects, the simulation analysis shows that CADP projects have much larger positive impacts on ASEAN countries.

Excess capital and bank behavior : evidence from Indonesia

The Indonesian banking sector has been restructured since Asian financial crisis and restored to soundness. The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) returned to a sound level; however, the average excess capital has become too high, while credit disbursement has remained low. This paper investigates the determinants of excess capital among Indonesian banks and its effects on credit growth during the 2000s. The results indicate that the determinants of excess capital vary widely depending on bank type. Return on equity (ROE) affects excess capital negatively among domestic banks, and the effect of non-performing loans is mixed, differing for various bank types. Excess capital affects credit growth positively, except among foreign banks.

Independence and search space preservation in dynamically scheduled constraint logic languages

This paper performs a further generalization of the notion of independence in constraint logic programs to the context of constraint logic programs with dynamic scheduling. The complexity of this new environment made necessary to first formally define the relationship between independence and search space preservation in the context of CLP languages. In particular, we show that search space preservation is, in the context of CLP languages, not only a sufficient but also a necessary condition for ensuring that both the intended solutions and the number of transitions performed do not change. These results are then extended to dynamically scheduled languages and used as the basis for the extension of the concepts of independence. We also propose several a priori sufficient conditions for independence and also give correctness and efficiency results for parallel execution of constraint logic programs based on the proposed notions of independence.

Dated co-occurrence of Homo erectus and Gigantopithecus from Tham Khuyen Cave, Vietnam.

Tham Khuyen Cave (Lang Son Province, northern Vietnam) is one of the more significant sites to yield fossil vertebrates in east Asia. During the mid-1960s, excavation in a suite of deposits produced important hominoid dental remains of middle Pleistocene age. We undertake more rigorous analyses of these sediments to understand the fluvial dynamics of Pleistocene cave infilling as they determine how skeletal elements accumulate within Tham Khuyen and other east Asian sites. Uranium/thorium series analysis of speleothems brackets the Pleistocene chronology for breaching, infilling, and exhuming the regional paleokarst. Clast analysis indicates sedimentary constituents, including hominoid teeth and cranial fragments accumulated from very short distances and under low fluvial energy. Electron spin resonance analysis of vertebrate tooth enamel and sediments shows that the main fossil-bearing suite (S1-S3) was deposited about 475 thousand years ago. Among the hominoid teeth excavated from S1-S3, some represent Homo erectus and Gigantopithecus blacki. Criteria are defined to differentiate these teeth from more numerous Pongo pygmaeus elements. The dated co-occurrence of Homo erectus and Gigantopithecus blacki at Tham Khuyen helps to establish the long co-existence of these two species throughout east Asia during the Early and Middle Pleistocene.

Sovereignty and Intervention in the Middle East: From the Fall of the Ottoman Empire to the Arab Spring

This research provides an institutional explanation of the practices of external intervention in the Arab state system from the fall of the Ottoman Empire in 1922 to the Arab Spring. My explanation consists of two institutional variables: sovereignty and inter-state borders. I examine the changes in regional and international norms of sovereignty and their impact on the practices of external intervention in the Arab state system. I also examine the impact of the level of institutionalization of inter-state borders in the Arab World on the practices of external intervention. I argue that changes in regional and international norms of sovereignty and changes in the level of institutionalization of inter-state borders have constituted the significant variation over time in both the frequency and type of external intervention in the Arab state system from 1922 to the present. My institutional explanation and findings seriously challenge the traditional accounts of sovereignty and intervention in the Arab World, including the cultural perspectives that emphasize the conflict between sovereignty, Arabism, and Islam, the constructivist accounts that emphasize the regional norm of pan-Arabism, the comparative politics explanations that focus on the domestic material power of the Arab state, the post-colonial perspectives that emphasize the artificiality of the Arab state, and the realist accounts that focus on great powers and the regional distribution of power in the Middle East. This research also contributes to International Relations Theory. I construct a new analytical framework to study the relations between sovereignty, borders, and intervention, combining theoretical elements from the fields of Role Theory, Social Constructivism, and Institutionalization. Methodologically, this research includes both quantitative and qualitative analysis. I conduct content analysis of official documents of Arab states and the Arab League, Arabic press documents, and Arab political thought. I also utilize quantitative data sets on international intervention.

War Crimes and Shifting Borders in the Middle East. CEPS Essay No. 14, 11 September 2014

The summer of 2014 saw an explosion of violence in the Middle East: Israel delivered a sledgehammer blow against Gaza, Lebanon was again the scene of terrorist onslaught, and the relentless war in Syria pushed the numbers of casualties and displaced people to record highs. In terms of geopolitical change, however, the advance of the ‘Islamic State’ and the emergence of a de facto independent Iraqi Kurdistan are the most important recent developments in the region. Common to all these conflicts are the levels of barbarity involved in this struggle for a place in the region’s security order.

The Evolving Integration in East Asia - Too many reservations? CEPS Essay No. 5, 29 April 2013

East Asian economic integration is less well known in Europe than is desirable in the EU’s own enlightened self-interest. It is also badly understood, not least because a range of ‘soft’ cultural, historical and political aspects are insufficiently appreciated in Europe. This CEPS Essay offers a deeper personal reflection on the emergence and development of East Asian economic cooperation and market-driven integration. It attempts to address some of the lingering reservations on both sides and to render the reservations in East Asia more intelligible to Europeans.

Is the "Dubai model" a new paradigm for growth and investment strategies for oil-based economies? Case study: Eurasia. ACES Working Papers No. 8, 2008

The first part of the paper addresses the theoretical background of economic growth and competitive advantage models. Although there is a whole set of research on a relationship between foreign direct investments and economic growth, little has been said on foreign direct investments and national competitive advantage with respect to economic growth of oil and gas abundant countries of Middle East and Central Asia. The second part of our paper introduces the framework of the so-called "Dubai Model" in detail and outlines the key components necessary to develop sustainable comparative advantage for the oil-rich economies. The third part proceeds with the methodology employed to measure the success of the "Dubai Model" in the UAE and in application to other regions. The last part brings the results and investigates the degree to which other oil and gas countries in the region (i.e. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Iran) have adopted the so-called "Dubai Model". It also examines if the Dubai Model is being employed in the Eurasian (Central Asian) oil and gas regions of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The objective is to gauge if the Eurasian economies are employing the traditional growth strategies of oil-rich non-OECD countries in managing their natural resources or are they adopting the newer non-traditional model of economic growth, such as the "Dubai Model."

Imperial legacy? The EU's Developmental Model and the Crisis of the European Periphery. CES Papers - Open Forum #19, 2013-2014

The high hopes for rapid convergence of Eastern and Southern EU member states are increasingly being disappointed. With the onset of the Eurocrisis convergence has given way to divergence in the southern members, and many Eastern members have made little headway in closing the development gap. The EU´s performance compares unfavourably with East Asian success cases as well as with Western Europe´s own rapid catch-up to the USA after 1945. Historical experience indicates that successful catch up requires that less-developed economies to some extent are allowed to free-ride on an open international economic order. However, the EU´s model is based on the principle of a level-playing field, which militates against such a form of economic integration. The EU´s developmental model thus contrasts with the various strategies that have enabled successful catch up of industrial latecomers. Instead the EU´s current approach is more and more reminiscent of the relations between the pre-1945 European empires and their dependent territories. One reason for this unfortunate historical continuity is that the EU appears to have become entangled in its own myths. In the EU´s own interpretation, European integration is a peace project designed to overcome the almost continuous warfare that characterised the Westphalian system. As the sovereign state is identified as the root cause of all evil, any project to curtail its room of manoeuvre must ultimately benefit the common good. Yet, the existence of a Westphalian system of nation states is a myth. Empires and not states were the dominant actors in the international system for at least the last three centuries. If anything, the dawn of the age of the sovereign state in Western Europe occurred after 1945 with the disintegration of the colonial empires and thus historically coincided with the birth of European integration.

Benthic foraminiferal assemblages and paleoproductivity reconstructions for the last 550 kyr of the Ontong Java Plateau, western equatorial Pacific

We analyzed foraminiferal and nannofossil assemblages and stable isotopes in samples from ODP Hole 807A on the Ontong Java Plateau in order to evaluate productivity and carbonate dissolution cycles over the last 550 kyr (kilo year) in the western equatorial Pacific. Our results indicate that productivity was generally higher in glacials than during interglacials, and gradually increased since MIS 13. Carbonate dissolution was weak in deglacial intervals, but often reached a maximum during interglacial to glacial transitions. Carbonate cycles in the western equatorial Pacific were mainly influenced by changes of deep-water properties rather than by local primary productivity. Fluctuations of the estimated thermocline depth were not related to glacial to interglacial alternations, but changed distinctly at ~280 kyr. Before that time the thermocline was relatively shallow and its depth fluctuated at a comparatively high amplitude and low frequency. After 280 kyr, the thermocline was deeper, and its fluctuations were at lower amplitude and higher frequency. These different patterns in productivity and thermocline variability suggest that thermocline dynamics probably were not a controlling factor of biological productivity in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean. In this region, upwelling, the influx of cool, nutrient-rich waters from the eastern equatorial Pacific or of fresh waters from rivers have probably never been important, and their influence on productivity has been negligible over the studied period. Variations in the inferred productivity in general are well correlated with fluctuations in the eolian flux as recorded in the northwestern Pacific, a proxy for the late Quaternary history of the central East Asian dust flux into the Pacific. Therefore, we suggest that the dust flux from the central East Asian continent may have been an important driver of productivity in the western Pacific.

Trace element abundance, and Sr and Nd isotope ratios of dust samples in the Pacific Ocean (Table 2)

Eolian dust preserved in deep-sea sediment cores provides a valuable indicator of past atmospheric circulation and continental paleoclimate. In order to identify the provenance of eolian dust, Nd and Sr isotopic compositions and Rb, Sr and rare earth element (REE) concentrations have been determined for the silicate fractions of deep-sea sediments from the north and central Pacific Ocean. Different regions of the Pacific Ocean are characterized by distinct air-borne inputs, producing a large range in epsolin-Nd (-10 to +1), 87Sr/86Sr (0.705-0.721), La/Yb (5-15), EuN/EuN* (0.6-1.0) and Sr/Nd (4-33). The average Nd isotopic composition of Pacific deep-sea sediments (epsilon-Nd = -6), is more radiogenic than the average from the Atlantic (epsilon-Nd = -8). In contrast, the average147Sm/144Nd ratio for Pacific sediments (0.114) is identical to that of Atlantic sediments and to that of global average riverine suspended material. The values of epsilon-Nd and147Sm/144Nd are positively correlated for the Pacific samples but negatively correlated for Atlantic samples, reflecting a fundamental difference between the dominant components in the end members with radiogenic Nd (island-arc components in the Pacific and LREE-enriched intraplate ocean island components in the Atlantic). Samples from the north central Pacific have distinctive unradiogenic epsilon-Nd values of -10, 87Sr/86Sr > 0.715, high La/Yb (> 12), and low EuN/EuN* (0.6) and Sr/Nd (3-6). These data are virtually identical to the values for loess from Asia and endorse the use of these sediments as indicators of Asian paleoclimate and paleowind directions. Island-arc contributions appear to dominate in the northwest Pacific, resulting in higher epsilon Nd (-1 to +1) and lower 87Sr/86Sr (~ 0.705) and La/Yb (~ 5). Sediments from the eastern Pacific tend to have intermediate Sr and Nd isotopic compositions but regionally variable Sr/Nd and REE patterns; they appear to be derived from the west margin of the North and South American continents, rather than from Asia. Our results confirm that dust provenance can be constrained by isotopic and geochemical analyses, which will facilitate reconstructions of past atmospheric circulation and continental paleoclimate.