Fiscal policy under financial stress: A threshold VAR approach

The purpose of the project is to measure the impact of fiscal policy on the Portuguese GDP and how it may vary according to the state of the financial market. A Threshold VAR model is presented in which the two regimes are found using a financial stress index that divides the economy into a situation of financial stress and financial stability.

Prospective system analysis of stationary battery systems under the frame of Constructive Technology Assessment

Based on the report for the unit “Project IV” of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment under the supervision of Dr.-Ing. Marcel Weil and Prof. Dr. António Brandão Moniz. The report was presented and discussed at the Doctorate Conference on Technologogy Assessment in July 2013 at the University Nova Lisboa, Caparica campus.

Ecological aspects of the sandfly fauna (Diptera, Psychodidae) in an American cutaneous leishmaniasis endemic area under the influence of hydroelectric plants in Paranapanema river, State of Paraná, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: An epidemiological study was undertaken to identify determinant factors in the occurrence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in areas under the influence of hydroelectric plants in Paranapanema river, State of Paraná, Brazil. The ecological aspects of the phlebotomine fauna were investigated. METHODS: Sandflies were sampled with automatic light traps from February 2004 to June 2006 at 25 sites in the urban and rural areas of Itambaracá, and in Porto Almeida and São Joaquim do Pontal. RESULTS: A total of 3,187 sandflies of 15 species were captured. Nyssomyia neivai predominated (34.4%), followed by Pintomyia pessoai (32.6%), Migonemyia migonei (11.6%), Nyssomyia whitmani (8.8%), and Pintomyia fischeri (2.7%), all implicated in the transmission of Leishmania. Males predominated for Ny. neivai, and females for the other vector species, with significant statistical differences (p < 0.001). Nyssomyia neivai, Pi. pessoai, Ny. whitmani, Brumptomyia brumpti, Mg. migonei, and Pi. fischeri presented the highest values for the Standardized Species Abundance Index (SSAI). The highest frequencies and diversities were found in the preserved forest in Porto Almeida, followed by forests with degradation in São Joaquim do Pontal and Vila Rural. CONCLUSIONS: Sandflies were captured in all localities, with the five vectors predominating. Ny. neivai had its highest frequencies in nearby peridomestic environments and Pi. pessoai in areas of preserved forests. The highest SSAI values of Ny. neivai and Pi. pessoai reflect their wider dispersion and higher frequencies compared with other species, which seems to indicate that these two species may be transmitting leishmaniasis in the area.

Factors of poor prognosis of visceral leishmaniasis among children under 12 years of age. A retrospective monocentric study in Belo Horizonte, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, 2001-2005

INTRODUTION: A major concern with the visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is its high lethality rate, even with proper treatment. Low age, prior malnutrition, disease duration prior to diagnosis, severe anemia, fever for more than 60 days, diarrhea and jaundice are known poor prognostic factors. The goals of this study are to describe the clinical and laboratory characteristics of VL among children under 12 years of age and to identify the factors associated with VL poor outcome. METHODS: Two hundred and fifty children under 12 years of age with confirmed VL admitted to Hospital João Paulo II (FHEMIG), Belo Horizonte, Brazil, between January 2001 and December 2005 were evaluated retrospectively. The primary outcome was the poor clinical evolution: sepsis, and/or pneumonia, and/or urinary tract infection, and/or of bleeding (expect epistaxis), and/or severe neutropenia (neutrophil < 500 cells/mm3). Odds ratio (crude and adjusted) and its 95% confidence interval for each variable were calculated. Values less than 0.05 were considered significant. RESULTS: Average age was 3.3 years (3.6 months-11.6 years), 71.2% were younger than 5 years and 47.2% lived in Metropolitan Area of Belo Horizonte. The mean fatality rate was 3.6%. Sixty-six (26.4%) patients presented poor evolution. After a multivariate analysis, age <18 months, abnormal respiratory physical examination on hospital admission, and platelets <85,000/mm3 remained associated with increased chance of poor evolution. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that patients aged between 12 and 18 months, with platelet counts bellow 85,000/mm3, and respiratory abnormalities at admission should be considered potentially severe.

Dynamic delta hedging of autocallables under a discrete rebalancing context

This work tests different delta hedging strategies for two products issued by Banco de Investimento Global in 2012. The work studies the behaviour of the delta and gamma of autocallables and their impact on the results when delta hedging with different rebalancing periods. Given its discontinuous payoff and path dependency, it is suggested the hedging portfolio is rebalanced on a daily basis to better follow market changes. Moreover, a mixed strategy is analysed where time to maturity is used as a criterion to change the rebalancing frequency.

Biology of Triatoma carcavalloi Jurberg, Rocha & Lent, 1998 under laboratory conditions

Introduction Triatoma carcavalloi is a wild species that is found in sympatry with Triatoma rubrovaria and Triatoma circummaculata, which are vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi currently found in rural areas of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Methods Fertility was assessed and to determine the incubation period, the eggs were observed until hatching. The first meal was offered to 1st stage nymphs. The intermolt period was also determined. The number of blood meals was quantified at each nymphal stage and the resistance to fasting as the period between ecdysis and death. Mortality was assessed and longevity was determined by recording the time that elapsed from molting to the adult stage and until death. The developmental cycle was assessed by recording the length in days of each stage from molting to adult hood. Results The average incubation period was 22.7 days. The average first meal occurred 3.1 days after hatching. The 5th stage nymph to adult intermolting period was the longest at 193.4 days. The average number of feedings during nymphal development was 13.4. The resistance to fasting assay indicated that the 3rd, 4th and 5th stage nymphs presented higher resistance than did adults. The highest mortality rate was observed in the 3rd stage nymphs (22.2%). The average length of adult survival was 25.6 weeks, and the average total life cycle lasted 503.4 days. Conclusions This study is the first report on the biology of T. carcavalloi that fed on mice. The presented findings expand the bionomic knowledge of these species.

Epidemiological and environmental aspects of visceral leishmaniasis in children under 15 years of age between 2007 and 2012 in the City of Araguaína, State of Tocantins, Brazil

Introduction Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) stands out as a zoonosis observed on four continents and also in urban expansion zones in several regions of Brazil. Methods A cross-sectional epidemiological study of VL cases in children under 15 years of age in the period from 2007 to 2012. Clinical data were gathered from medical reports; meteorological data were obtained at the Meteorological Measurement Department of UFT. Environmental variables were divided into two periods, rainy and dry. Results The study revealed no difference by gender (p=0.67) among the 821 patients. However, the most affected age group was between one and five years of age (58.6%; p<0.01); the highest prevalence of the disease (99.03%; p<0.01) occurred in urban zones; and the most affected ethnic group (85.5%; p<0.01) was mixed race. The highest incidence coefficients in this population occurred in 2007 and 2008 (578.39/100,000 inhabitants; 18.5/100,000 inhabitants, respectively), whereas the highest lethality coefficients occurred in 2008 and 2011 (0.85/100 deaths). There was no significant correlation between average rainfall and the number of VL cases. The correlation between temperature and number of VL cases was negative (r = -0.4039; p<0.01). Conclusions In Araguaína, visceral leishmaniasis in children under 15 years is an urban-based endemic disease distributed across all districts of the city wherein temperature as an environmental factor, a higher prevalence in mixed race children between one and five years of age, and a high incidence coefficient all strongly contribute to child mortality.

Under the veil of citations

Academics are often ranked on citation counts’, which is considered an adequate proxy for author's quality and reputation. This paper seeks to find what is behind a cited academic / a cited article. We constructed a rich dataset from Portuguese affiliated economists and use zero inflated negative binomial model. This procedure is appropriate for count outcomes, correcting for overdispersion and excess zeros. We also use a fixed effect poisson model to accomodate authors' unobserved heterogeneity. We analyze results in detail comparing with existing literature and making some theoretical considerations around.

Susceptibility of Triatoma sordida Stal, 1859 (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) to alpha-cypermethrin under natural climatic conditions

Abstract:INTRODUCTION:Despite the recommendations by interpretation of resistance ratios obtained in laboratory bioassays, little is known about the actual impact of these results in the effectiveness of vector control activities in the field. In this context, our objective was to determine the mean value of different resistance ratios obtained by laboratory bioassays performed as part of the chemical control strategies of Triatoma sordida in the field.METHODS:Field bioassays were developed in Monte Azul and Coração de Jesus (Southeast, Brazil). In each location, samples were formed with three domestic units treated with alpha-cypermethrin 20.0% (Alfatek (r) 200 SC). One day after spraying, 10 fifth-instar nymphs remained in contact with the surfaces treated (adobe with plaster, adobe without plaster, or wood) with insecticide in plastic cones for 72h. Three cones were exposed inside the intradomicile and the peridomicile. The insects in the control group were exposed to an insecticide-free piece of cardboard. Mortality was measured 72h after removal of the insects from the treated surfaces. The tests were realized in triplicate.RESULTS:Mortality was 100.0% in all locations, except for Monte Azul; Landinho (96.6%) and Coração de Jesus; Barriguda (96.6%).CONCLUSIONS:Although the resistant populations in laboratory tests proved to be susceptible in the field, this observation is not sufficient to suggest that the cut-off points used to justify the resistance ratio should be changed. In this sense, we recommend that laboratory and field bioassays are carried out with a greater number of Triatominae populations to allow more in-depth consideration of the subject.

Performance of direct immunofluorescence assay for the detection of human metapneumovirus under clinical laboratory settings

ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION: Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) is an emergent human respiratory pathogen. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of direct immunofluorescence (DIF) to detect hMPV in a clinical laboratory setting. METHODS: Nasopharyngeal aspirate samples (448) of children and adults with respiratory illness were used to detect hMPV by using DIF and real time quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) assays. RESULTS: In all, 36 (8%) samples were positive by DIF and 94 (21%) were positive by qRT-PCR. Direct immunofluorescence specificity was 99% and sensitivity was 38%. CONCLUSIONS: DIF is not very sensitive under clinical laboratory settings.

Staying under the radar - the multifunctional LANA Protein

Many viruses have developed numerous strategies to recruit and take advantage of cellular protein degradation pathways to evade the cellular viral immune system. One such virus is the Kaposi´s Sarcoma associated herpesvirus (KSHV), first discovered in Kaposi´s Sarcoma lesions found in AIDS patients. Latency-Associated Nuclear Antigen (LANA) is a KSHV multifunctional protein responsible for tethering viral DNA to the chromosome ensuring maintenance and segregation of the viral genome during cell division. Besides its main role of viral maintenance, LANA also physically interacts with several host proteins to modulate cell functions. One such function is to recruit the EC5S ubiquitin-ligase complex by interacting with Elongin BC complex and Cullin 5 protein, which in turn ubiquitinate substrates such as NF-κB and p53 to allow persistent viral infection. Like any other post-translation modifications, ubiquitination is reversible through deubiquitination enzymes (DUBs). LANA also interacts with ubiquitin specific protease 7 (USP7), a deubiquitination enzyme involved in regulation of several proteins including p53. Interaction with USP7 is made through a conserved peptide motif, which is also present in LANA. This work addresses the role of LANA in the recruitment and modulation of the ubiquitination and deubiquitination pathways. Despite the continued efforts in uncovering new LANA interacting partners to form a functional EC5S ubiquitin-ligase complex, only MHV-68 LANA interacted directly with Elongin BC, other interactions were not direct and may require a linker protein. On the other hand, LANA interaction with USP7 was able to be analysed by X-ray structure determination. In addition to a conserved P/AxxS motif, a novel Glutamine (Gln) residue from KSHV LANA was shown to make a specific interaction with USP7. This Gln residue is also present in other herpesvirus protein and hence it might be a conserved motif within herpesviruses.

Invasive enteritis by Strongyloides stercoralis presenting as acute abdominal distress under corticosteroid therapy

Overwhelming helminthiasis is still a problem in endemic areas, especially in immunocompromised patients. We report a case of invasive intestinal strongyloidiasis that was clinically expressed as acute abdominal distress in a 73-year-old man from São Paulo who had been receiving methylprednisone, 20 mg/day, for one year for osteoarthritis. A surgical specimen from the ileum revealed invasive enteritis with severe infestation by Strongyloides stercoralis. The patient died of sepsis 6 days after surgery. The possibility of invasive strongyloidiasis should be considered in the differential diagnosis of acute abdominal distress in patients undergoing immunosuppressive therapy.

Wage adjustments under extreme downward nominal wage rigidity

Using a rich and highly accurate dataset for Portugal spanning from 1986 to 2013, this paper analyzes the determinants of downward nominal wage rigidity, mainly focusing on macroeconomic factors. The data supports the hypothesis that recessionary periods alongside with low in ation contribute to a higher degree of wage rigidity, as measured by the incidence of nominal wage freezes. It is further highlighted how this lack of wage adjustments con- tributed to an increase in labor costs which culminated in a wage markup of 6-7%. This paper, thus seems to corroborate the argument that low in ation did exacerbated the downward in exibility of (real) wages after the Great Recession.

CTT, the mail going public

The main purpose of this case-study is to analyse CTT’s privatisation process, a previously Government-owned firm, which went public in 2013, under the terms of the adjustment program agreed between Portugal, the European institutions (ECB and European Commission) and the IMF. The emphasis will be placed on the IPO process, but also on the company itself (its history, current situation and prospects for its new phase, as a publicly listed company). This piece of work aims to evaluate the different alternatives for the privatisation of the company along with the respective implications, as well as the outcome of the actual decision taken by the Portuguese Government. One key aspect of the case is also to understand the importance that the privatisation of the Royal Mail, which can be seen as a peer of the Portuguese company, in the unfolding of the process and in the choice of the privatisation model. The case intends to show how the British process influenced the subsequent option of the Portuguese entities to sell CTT through an IPO, instead of a trade sale. All in all, the overall objective of this case-study is to analyse CTT’s successful sale process, which created the first Portuguese company with 100% free-float. 3 On the last days of November 2013, Steven Bernstein was staring at the window of his office overlooking downtown Manhattan, not even noticing the intense rain that was pouring down. As senior manager at ABC Fund, a pension fund responsible for managing more than 800 million dollars, his thoughts were focused on a very important decision that ABC Fund would have to make in just a matter of days. The American pension fund was considering whether or not to invest in the upcoming Initial Public Offering of CTT- Correios de Portugal, the Government-owned Portuguese mail company. Is this investment opportunity in accordance with the risk profile of a pension fund? Is it a wise decision to acquire shares in a Portuguese company when the country is at the centre of the European Sovereign debt crisis, going through a very demanding economic adjustment program imposed by its bail-out creditors? Would the creation of Portugal's Postal Bank make CTT a sure bet today when its price does not fully reflect the future benefits from entering financial services? Those were some of the questions that were constantly in Mr. Bernstein’s mind over the last couple of days and he was struggling to find the answers…

The burden of chronic low back pain in the adult Portuguese population : an epidemiological population-based study under the scope of Epireumapt

RESUMO: Nos países desenvolvidos a lombalgia é a condição músculo-­‐esquelética mais prevalente. Quando evolui para um quadro crónico é responsável por um encargo económico bastante considerável, não só em relação aos indivíduos, mas também para a sociedade. A lombalgia crónica é por isso uma das principais causas de perda de produtividade e de perda de independência económica, nomeadamente através do absenteísmo (ausência do trabalho), do presenteísmo (perda de produtividade no trabalho, devido à capacidade diminuída provocada pela lombalgia) e da incapacidade para trabalhar (invalidez permanente, total ou parcial). Até à data, em Portugal, a prevalência e carga social da lombalgia crónica eram desconhecidas. Até agora não existiam estudos populacionais de grande dimensão sobre este tema. O objetivo principal desta tese foi determinar a prevalência de lombalgia crónica, e também avaliar a carga social que esta tem na população adulta Portuguesa. O trabalho de investigação foi desenvolvido no âmbito do Estudo Epidemiológico de Doenças Reumáticas em Portugal (EpiReumaPt). Este foi o primeiro estudo de larga escala e de base populacional, que determinou a prevalência de doenças reumáticas e músculo-­‐ esqueléticas na população adulta portuguesa. Foi realizado numa amostra aleatória e representativa, de 10.661 indivíduos do Continente, da Região Autónoma dos Açores e da Região Autónoma da Madeira, entre Setembro de 2011 e Dezembro de 2013. Esta tese foi dividida em duas secções. A primeira secção incluiu o detalhe das questões relativas ao desenvolvimento e gestão do EpiReumaPt, constituindo-­‐se como um guia prático sobre como realizar um estudo de base populacional de larga escala, em Portugal. A metodologia detalhada do EpiReumaPt foi também descrita nesta secção e incluiu os objectivos, o desenho do estudo, as características de recrutamento e a preparação de dados para análise. Nesta secção foram ainda descritos os principais resultados do EpiReumaPt. Estes evidenciaram que a lombalgia foi a condição músculo-­‐esquelética com maior prevalência na população adulta portuguesa.A segunda secção desta tese estimou a prevalência da lombalgia crónica ativa na população adulta Portuguesa, e avaliou a carga social esta condição. A lombalgia ativa foi definida com base na dor auto-­‐relatada no dia da entrevista e que persistia há pelo menos 90 dias (independentemente da causa). A lombalgia foi definida como dor na área definida entre a margem inferior das décimas segundas costelas até às pregas glúteas inferiores, com ou sem dor nos membros inferiores. A carga social foi medida tendo em conta os seguintes parâmetros: qualidade de vida, função, consumo de recursos de saúde, consumo de analgésicos e outros fármacos usados no alívio da dor, sintomas de ansiedade e sintomas de depressão. Os resultados mostraram que o consumo de recursos em saúde e a carga social da lombalgia crónica na população adulta Português é significativa. Também a incapacidade causada pela lombalgia crónica,nos indivíduos com idade ativa, é responsável por elevadas taxas de absenteísmo e má qualidade de vida, aos quais acresce o consequente ónus socioeconómico. Esta tese também concluiu que o consumo de analgésicos e outros medicamentos para alívio da dor, na população adulta portuguesa com lombalgia crónica ativa, é relativamente baixa. A maioria destes indivíduos não tomava nenhum medicamento analgésico, independentemente da intensidade da dor. Mesmo os indivíduos que reportaram dor intensa, apenas 4.0% estavam no primeiro degrau da escada analgésica da Organização Mundial de Saúde; 2.3% usavam opióides fracos e 0.03% usavam opióides fortes para controlar a dor (segundo e terceiro degrau da escada analgésica da Organização Mundial da Saúde). O trabalho de investigação também confirmou que a prevalência de sintomas de ansiedade e depressão entre os indivíduos adultos portugueses com lombalgia crónica ativa é elevada. Nestes indivíduos, registou-­‐se um consumo mais elevado de analgésicos e outros medicamentos para alívio da dor, quando comparados com os indivíduos com lombalgia crónica activa sem esses sintomas psicológicos. Os grupos terapêuticos mais utilizados foram os ansiolíticos, sedativos e hipnóticos, os antidepressivos e os anti-­‐inflamatórios não esteróides. A intensidade média da dor reportada foi também maior entre os indivíduos com lombalgia ativa e sintomas de ansiedade e/ou depressão. Também nestes, foi reportada pior função e pior estado de saúde. Em relação ao consumo de recursos de saúde foram encontradas diferenças significativas entre as duas populações: os indivíduos com lombalgia ativa e sintomas psicológicos concomitantes registaram maior número de consultas de psiquiatria de outras especialidades médicas, assim como precisaram de mais apoio domiciliário nos 12 meses prévios à entrevista do EpiReumaPt. Foram também identificados os fatores associados a sintomas isolados de ansiedade, a sintomas isolados de depressão e a sintomas de ansiedade e depressão. Resumindo,esta tese permitiu concluir que a lombalgia crónica é um problema de saúde comum na população adulta portuguesa, contribuindo para um elevado grau de incapacidade e que consequentemente afeta o desempenho laboral e o bem-­‐estar dos indivíduos. A lombalgia crónica é também responsável por um consumo considerável de recursos de saúde. Acresce ainda que os sintomas de ansiedade e depressão são comuns, entre os indivíduos com lombalgia crónica, contribuindo com uma carga social adicional.---------------------------------- ABSTRACT:Low Back Pain(LBP) is the most prevalent of musculoskeletal condition in developed countries.When it becomes chronic, LBP causesan enormous economic burden on individuals and society -­‐ it is one of the leading causes of loss of productivity and economic independence through absenteeism (time off work), presenteeism (lost productivity because of diminished capacity while at work) and work disability (permanent, partial or complete disablement for work purposes). In Portugal the prevalence and burden of LBP and chronic LBP (CLBP) were poorly defined. Until now no large population-­‐based studies have focused on this. The main aim of this thesis was to determine the prevalence of LBP and CLBP, and also to assess the burden of CLBP in the adult rtuguese population. The research work was developed under the scope of EpiReumaPt (the Portuguese Epidemiologic Study of Rheumatic Diseases). EpiReumaPt was the first national large population-­‐based and prevalence study of rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RMD). It was performed among a randomized and representative sample of 10,661 adult Portuguese subjects recruited in Mainland, Azores and Madeira Islands, from September 2011 to December 2013. The first section of this thesis included detailed issues regarding the development and management of EpiReumaPt, and provided a practical guide on how to set-­‐up a large population-­‐based study in Portugal. The detailed methodology of EpiReumaPt, including its objectives,study design,recruitment features,and data preparation for analyses were also described. The main results from EpiReumaPt study were provided in this section and showed that LBP was the musculoskeletal condition with highest prevalence among Portuguese population. The second section of this thesis estimated the prevalence of active CLBP among adult Portuguese population, and assessed the social burden of this condition. Active CLBP was defined based on self-­‐reported pain on the day of the interview, and for most of the time for at least 90 days (independently from cause). LBP was defined as pain in the back area from the lower margin of the twelfth ribs to he lower gluteal folds, with or without pain referred to the lower limbs. Social burden was measured taking into account the following outcomes: quality of life, function, healthcare resources consumption, analgesic and other pain relief drugs intake, anxiety and depression symptoms. Results showed that the healthcare consumption and social burden of CLBP among adult Portuguese population were enormous, and the disability caused by CLBP among subjects in a working age provides high rates of absenteeism (work loss) and poor quality of life, with a consequent socioeconomic burden. This thesis also concluded that analgesic and other pain relief drugs untake among adult Portuguese population with active CLBP was very low. Most of the subjects with active CLBP did not take any analgesic drug regardless pain severity. Even when subjects self-­‐reported severe pain, only 24.0% were in the 1st step of the analgesic ladder,2.3% used weak analgesic opioids and 0.03% used strong opioids (2nd and 3rd step of WHO analgesic ladder, respectively) to control pain . The research work also confirmed that the prevalence of anxiety and depression symptoms among adult Portuguese subjects with active CLBP was high. Regarding pharmacological therapy, the intake of analgesic and other pain relief drugs was higher among subjects with anxiety and/or depression symptoms, when compared with subjects without these psychological symptoms. Anxiolytics, sedatives and hypnotics, antidepressants and NSAIDs intake had higher usage rates among these subjects. The pain severity mean was also higher among this subjects and function and health status was worse. Regarding healthcare resources consumption,significant differences between the two populations were found. Subjects with ctive CLBP and concomitant psychological symptoms had a higher number of psychiatrist and other physician visits. They also needed more home care in the previous 12 months. Factors associated with isolated symptoms of anxiety, depression,and concomitant anxiety and depression symptoms were also identified. Summarizing, we concluded that CLBP is a common health problem among adult Portuguese population contributing to disability and affecting labor performance, and the well being of subjects. it is also responsible for considerable healthcare resource consumption. Anxiety and depression symptoms are common among subjects with CLBP and provided an additional burden among them.