Building an honest microfinance organization: Embezzlement and the optimality of rigid repayment schedules and joint liability

We consider the agency problem of a staff member managing microfinancing programs, who can abuse his discretion to embezzle borrowers' repayments. The fact that most borrowers of microfinancing programs are illiterate and live in rural areas where transportation costs are very high make staff's embezzlement particularly relevant as is documented by Mknelly and Kevane (2002). We study the trade-off between the optimal rigid lending contract and the optimal discretionary one and find that a rigid contract is optimal when the audit cost is larger than gains from insurance. Our analysis explains rigid repayment schedules used by the Grameen bank as an optimal response to the bank staff's agency problem. Joint liability reduces borrowers' burden of respecting the rigid repayment schedules by providing them with partial insurance. However, the same insurance can be provided byborrowers themselves under individual liability through a side-contract.

Structural joint inversion of time-lapse crosshole ERT and GPR traveltime data

Time-lapse geophysical monitoring and inversion are valuable tools in hydrogeology for monitoring changes in the subsurface due to natural and forced (tracer) dynamics. However, the resulting models may suffer from insufficient resolution, which leads to underestimated variability and poor mass recovery. Structural joint inversion using cross-gradient constraints can provide higher-resolution models compared with individual inversions and we present the first application to time-lapse data. The results from a synthetic and field vadose zone water tracer injection experiment show that joint 3-D time-lapse inversion of crosshole electrical resistance tomography (ERT) and ground penetrating radar (GPR) traveltime data significantly improve the imaged characteristics of the point injected plume, such as lateral spreading and center of mass, as well as the overall consistency between models. The joint inversion method appears to work well for cases when one hydrological state variable (in this case moisture content) controls the time-lapse response of both geophysical methods. Citation: Doetsch, J., N. Linde, and A. Binley (2010), Structural joint inversion of time-lapse crosshole ERT and GPR traveltime data, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L24404, doi: 10.1029/2010GL045482.

Tracking the invisible hand: Convergence of double auctions to competitive equilibrium

Economics is the science of want and scarcity. We show that want andscarcity, operating within a simple exchange institution (double auction),are sufficient for an economy consisting of multiple inter--related marketsto attain competitive equilibrium (CE). We generalize Gode and Sunder's(1993a, 1993b) single--market finding to multi--market economies, andexplore the role of the scarcity constraint in convergence of economies to CE.When the scarcity constraint is relaxed by allowing arbitrageurs in multiple markets to enter speculative trades, prices still converge to CE,but allocative efficiency of the economy drops. \\Optimization by individual agents, often used to derive competitive equilibria,are unnecessary for an actual economy to approximately attain such equilibria.From the failure of humans to optimize in complex tasks, one need not concludethat the equilibria derived from the competitive model are descriptivelyirrelevant. We show that even in complex economic systems, such equilibriacan be attained under a range of surprisingly weak assumptions about agentbehavior.

Mathey [Dean] joueur de tennis [américain, jouant en double avec Watson Washburn, qualificatifs pour les Jeux interalliés à la Croix-Catelan, le 1er juin 1919] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 54160

From correspondence analysis to multiple and joint correspondence analysis

The generalization of simple (two-variable) correspondence analysis to more than two categorical variables, commonly referred to as multiple correspondence analysis, is neither obvious nor well-defined. We present two alternative ways of generalizing correspondence analysis, one based on the quantification of the variables and intercorrelation relationships, and the other based on the geometric ideas of simple correspondence analysis. We propose a version of multiple correspondence analysis, with adjusted principal inertias, as the method of choice for the geometric definition, since it contains simple correspondence analysis as an exact special case, which is not the situation of the standard generalizations. We also clarify the issue of supplementary point representation and the properties of joint correspondence analysis, a method that visualizes all two-way relationships between the variables. The methodology is illustrated using data on attitudes to science from the International Social Survey Program on Environment in 1993.

Prevention of preterm delivery with vaginal progesterone in women with preterm labour (4P): randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of 200 mg of daily vaginal natural progesterone to prevent preterm birth in women with preterm labour. DESIGN: Multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. SETTING: Twenty-nine centres in Switzerland and Argentina. POPULATION: A total of 385 women with preterm labour (24(0/7) to 33(6/7)  weeks of gestation) treated with acute tocolysis. METHODS: Participants were randomly allocated to either 200 mg daily of self-administered vaginal progesterone or placebo within 48 hours of starting acute tocolysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was delivery before 37 weeks of gestation. Secondary outcomes were delivery before 32 and 34 weeks, adverse effects, duration of tocolysis, re-admissions for preterm labour, length of hospital stay, and neonatal morbidity and mortality. The study was ended prematurely based on results of the intermediate analysis. RESULTS: Preterm birth occurred in 42.5% of women in the progesterone group versus 35.5% in the placebo group (relative risk [RR] 1.2; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.93-1.5). Delivery at <32 and <34 weeks did not differ between the two groups (12.9 versus 9.7%; [RR 1.3; 95% CI 0.7-2.5] and 19.7 versus 12.9% [RR 1.5; 95% CI 0.9-2.4], respectively). The duration of tocolysis, hospitalisation, and recurrence of preterm labour were comparable between groups. Neonatal morbidity occurred in 44 (22.8%) cases on progesterone versus 35 (18.8%) cases on placebo (RR: 1.2; 95% CI 0.82-1.8), whereas there were 4 (2%) neonatal deaths in each study group. CONCLUSION: There is no evidence that the daily administration of 200 mg vaginal progesterone decreases preterm birth or improves neonatal outcome in women with preterm labour.

Characteristics and outcome of knee prosthetic joint infections (PJI): A 10-year cohort study (2000-2009)

Background: Prosthetic joint infections (PJI) lead to significant long-term morbidity with high cost of healthcare. We evaluated characteristics of infections and the infection and functional outcome of knee PJI over a 10-year period. Methods: All patients hospitalized at our institution from 1/2000 through 12/2009 with knee PJI (defined as growth of the same microorganism in ≥2 tissue or synovial fluid cultures, visible purulence, sinus tract or acute inflammation on tissue histopathology) were included. Patients, their relatives and/or treating physicians were contacted to determine the outcome. Results: During the study period, 61 patients with knee PJI were identified. The median age at the time of diagnosis of infection was 73 y (range, 53-94 y); 52% were men. Median hospital stay was 37 d (range, 1-145 d). Most reasons for primary arthroplasty was osteoarthritis (n = 48), trauma (n = 9) and rheumatoid arthritis (n = 4). 23 primary surgeries (40%) were performed at CHUV, 34 (60%) elsewhere. After surgery, 8 PJI were early (<3 months), 16 delayed (3-24 months) and 33 late (>24 months). PJI were treated with (i) open or arthroscopic debridement with prosthesis retention in 26 (46%), (ii) one-stage exchange in 1, (iii) two-stage exchange in 22 (39%) and (iv) prosthesis removal in 8 (14%). Isolated pathogens were S. aureus (13), coagulase-negative staphylococci (10), streptococci (5), enterococci (3), gram-negative rods (3) and anaerobes (3). Patients were followed for a median of 3.1 years, 2 patients died (unrelated to PJI). The outcome of infection was favorable in 50 patients (88%), whereas the functional outcome was favorable in 33 patients (58%). Conclusions: With the current treatment concept, the high cure rate of infection (88%) is associated with a less favorable functional outcome o 58%. Earlier surgical intervention and more rapid and improved diagnosis of infection may improve the functional outcome of PJI.

Iowa Department of Transportation Fiscal Year 2008 Report of Savings by Using Video Conferencing Through Iowa Communications Network to the Iowa General Assembly Pursuant to Iowa Code § II 84 Acts and Joint Resolutions Enacted at the 1994 Regular Session of the 75th General Assembly of the State of Iowa Iowa Code §8D.10 Report of Savings by State Agencies

Iowa Code § 8D.10 requires certain state agencies prepare an annual report to the General Assembly certifying the identified savings associated with that state agency’s use of the Iowa Communications Network (ICN). This report covers estimated cost savings related to video conferencing via ICN for the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT). In FY 2008, the DOT did not conduct any sessions utilizing ICN’s video conferencing system. Therefore, no cost savings were calculated for this report.

Fragmentation energy in rock avalanches

La fragmentation est un des mécanismes opérant lors d'avalanche rocheuses. La quantification de l'énergie associée à ce mécanisme permettrait d'apprécier l'influence de celui-ci sur la phase post-rupture d'une avalanche rocheuse. Dans cet article, les distributions des tailles des blocs du massif rocheux et des débris sont présentées et comparées pour neuf cas d'avalanches rocheuses : cinq dans les montagnes Rocheuses canadiennes et quatre dans les Alpes européennes. Des degrés de fragmentation ont pu être estimés. Pour évaluer l'énergie de fragmentation, deux méthodes on été examinées : l'une est basée sur l'énergie de concassage et l'autre est basée sur l'énergie de sautage utilisée dans le domaine minier. Les résultats obtenus portent à croire qu'il y aurait une relation entre l'indice de réduction de taille (Rr = D50/d50) et l'énergie potentielle par unité de volume, normalisée par la résistance au double poinçonnement (?HG/?c). Les énergies de fragmentation calculées pour les neuf cas étudiés donne en moyenne 20 % de l'énergie potentielle. Une relation empirique entre Rr et ?HG/?c est proposée, et est par la suite utilisée pour définir un indice de désintégration (ID). Cet indice reflète la physique du processus de désintégration puisqu'il considère que l'indice de réduction de taille est fonction de l'énergie dissipée et de la résistance de la roche. Ces facteurs connus depuis longtemps n'avaient jamais été présentés d'une façon cohérente pour des cas d'avalanches rocheuses.Mots clés : avalanches rocheuses, désintégration, énergie de fragmentation, Rocheuses canadiennes, Alpes européennes.

Conglomeration with bankruptcy costs: Separate or joint financing?

The paper analyzes the determinants of the optimal scope of incorporation in the presenceof bankruptcy costs. Bankruptcy costs alone generate a non-trivial tradeoff between thebenefit of coinsurance and the cost of risk contamination associated to joint financing corporate projects through debt. This tradeoff is characterized for projects with binary returns,depending on the distributional characteristics of returns (mean, variability, skewness, heterogeneity, correlation, and number of projects), the bankruptcy recovery rate, and the taxrate advantage of debt relative to equity. Our testable predictions are broadly consistentwith existing empirical evidence on conglomerate mergers, spin-offs, project finance, andsecuritization.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Audit report on the Iowa Water Pollution Control Works Financing Program and the Iowa Drinking Water Facilities Financing Program, joint programs of the Iowa Finance Authority and the Iowa Department of Natural Resources for the year ended June 30, 2008

Audit report on the Iowa Water Pollution Control Works Financing Program and the Iowa Drinking Water Facilities Financing Program, joint programs of the Iowa Finance Authority and the Iowa Department of Natural Resources for the year ended June 30, 2008