The causal surface and its effect on distribution transparency in a distributed virtual environment

One goal in the development of distributed virtual environments (DVEs) is to create a system such that users are unaware of the distribution-the distribution should be transparent. The paper begins by discussing the general issues in DVEs that might make this possible, and a system that allows some level of distribution transparency is described. The system described suffers from effects of inconsistency, which in turn cause undesirable visual effects. The causal surface is introduced as a solution that removes these visual effects. The paper then introduces two determining factors of distribution transparency relating to user perception and performance. With regard to these factors, two hypotheses are stated relating to the causal surface. A user-trial on forty-five subjects is used to validate the hypotheses. A discussion of the results of the trial concludes that the causal surface solution does significantly improve the distribution transparency in a DVE.

Causal volumes in distributed virtual reality

Research to date has tended to concentrate on bandwidth considerations to increase scalability in distributed interactive simulation and virtual reality systems. This paper proposes that the major concern for latency in user interaction is that of the fundamental limit of communication rate due to the speed of light. Causal volumes and surfaces are introduced as a model of the limitations of causality caused by this fundamental delay. The concept of virtual world critical speed is introduced, which can be determined from the causal surface. The implications of the critical speed are discussed, and relativistic dynamics are used to constrain the object speed, in the same way speeds are bounded in the real world.

Maximising concurrency and scalability in a consistent, causal, distributed virtual reality system, whilst minimising the effect of network delays

The development of large scale virtual reality and simulation systems have been mostly driven by the DIS and HLA standards community. A number of issues are coming to light about the applicability of these standards, in their present state, to the support of general multi-user VR systems. This paper pinpoints four issues that must be readdressed before large scale virtual reality systems become accessible to a larger commercial and public domain: a reduction in the effects of network delays; scalable causal event delivery; update control; and scalable reliable communication. Each of these issues is tackled through a common theme of combining wall clock and causal time-related entity behaviour, knowledge of network delays and prediction of entity behaviour, that together overcome many of the effects of network delay.

Distortion in Distributed Virtual Environments

This paper proposes a solution to the problems associated with network latency within distributed virtual environments. It begins by discussing the advantages and disadvantages of synchronous and asynchronous distributed models, in the areas of user and object representation and user-to-user interaction. By introducing a hybrid solution, which utilises the concept of a causal surface, the advantages of both synchronous and asynchronous models are combined. Object distortion is a characteristic feature of the hybrid system, and this is proposed as a solution which facilitates dynamic real-time user collaboration. The final section covers implementation details, with reference to a prototype system available from the Internet.

Maximising concurrency and scalability in a consistent, causal, distributed virtual reality system, whilst minimising the effect of network delays

The development of large scale virtual reality and simulation systems have been mostly driven by the DIS and HLA standards community. A number of issues are coming to light about the applicability of these standards, in their present state, to the support of general multi-user VR systems. This paper pinpoints four issues that must be readdressed before large scale virtual reality systems become accessible to a larger commercial and public domain: a reduction in the effects of network delays; scalable causal event delivery; update control; and scalable reliable communication. Each of these issues is tackled through a common theme of combining wall clock and causal time-related entity behaviour, knowledge of network delays and prediction of entity behaviour, that together overcome many of the effects of network delays.

A Real-time, Predictive Architecture for Distributed Virtual Reality

User interaction within a virtual environment may take various forms: a teleconferencing application will require users to speak to each other (Geak, 1993), with computer supported co-operative working; an Engineer may wish to pass an object to another user for examination; in a battle field simulation (McDonough, 1992), users might exchange fire. In all cases it is necessary for the actions of one user to be presented to the others sufficiently quickly to allow realistic interaction. In this paper we take a fresh look at the approach of virtual reality operating systems by tackling the underlying issues of creating real-time multi-user environments.

Data assimilation for state and parameter estimation: application to morphodynamic modelling

Data assimilation is predominantly used for state estimation; combining observational data with model predictions to produce an updated model state that most accurately approximates the true system state whilst keeping the model parameters fixed. This updated model state is then used to initiate the next model forecast. Even with perfect initial data, inaccurate model parameters will lead to the growth of prediction errors. To generate reliable forecasts we need good estimates of both the current system state and the model parameters. This paper presents research into data assimilation methods for morphodynamic model state and parameter estimation. First, we focus on state estimation and describe implementation of a three dimensional variational(3D-Var) data assimilation scheme in a simple 2D morphodynamic model of Morecambe Bay, UK. The assimilation of observations of bathymetry derived from SAR satellite imagery and a ship-borne survey is shown to significantly improve the predictive capability of the model over a 2 year run. Here, the model parameters are set by manual calibration; this is laborious and is found to produce different parameter values depending on the type and coverage of the validation dataset. The second part of this paper considers the problem of model parameter estimation in more detail. We explain how, by employing the technique of state augmentation, it is possible to use data assimilation to estimate uncertain model parameters concurrently with the model state. This approach removes inefficiencies associated with manual calibration and enables more effective use of observational data. We outline the development of a novel hybrid sequential 3D-Var data assimilation algorithm for joint state-parameter estimation and demonstrate its efficacy using an idealised 1D sediment transport model. The results of this study are extremely positive and suggest that there is great potential for the use of data assimilation-based state-parameter estimation in coastal morphodynamic modelling.

The Climate-G testbed: towards large scale distributed data management for climate change

Climate-G is a large scale distributed testbed devoted to climate change research. It is an unfunded effort started in 2008 and involving a wide community both in Europe and US. The testbed is an interdisciplinary effort involving partners from several institutions and joining expertise in the field of climate change and computational science. Its main goal is to allow scientists carrying out geographical and cross-institutional data discovery, access, analysis, visualization and sharing of climate data. It represents an attempt to address, in a real environment, challenging data and metadata management issues. This paper presents a complete overview about the Climate-G testbed highlighting the most important results that have been achieved since the beginning of this project.

Ensemble forecasts of a flood-producing storm: comparison of the influence of model-state perturbations and parameter modifications

High-resolution ensemble simulations (Δx = 1 km) are performed with the Met Office Unified Model for the Boscastle (Cornwall, UK) flash-flooding event of 16 August 2004. Forecast uncertainties arising from imperfections in the forecast model are analysed by comparing the simulation results produced by two types of perturbation strategy. Motivated by the meteorology of the event, one type of perturbation alters relevant physics choices or parameter settings in the model's parametrization schemes. The other type of perturbation is designed to account for representativity error in the boundary-layer parametrization. It makes direct changes to the model state and provides a lower bound against which to judge the spread produced by other uncertainties. The Boscastle has genuine skill at scales of approximately 60 km and an ensemble spread which can be estimated to within ∼ 10% with only eight members. Differences between the model-state perturbation and physics modification strategies are discussed, the former being more important for triggering and the latter for subsequent cell development, including the average internal structure of convective cells. Despite such differences, the spread in rainfall evaluated at skilful scales is shown to be only weakly sensitive to the perturbation strategy. This suggests that relatively simple strategies for treating model uncertainty may be sufficient for practical, convective-scale ensemble forecasting.

European plant phenology and climate as seen in a 20-year AVHRR land-surface parameter dataset

Vegetation distribution and state have been measured since 1981 by the AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) instrument through satellite remote sensing. In this study a correction method is applied to the Pathfinder NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data to create a continuous European vegetation phenology dataset of a 10-day temporal and 0.1° spatial resolution; additionally, land surface parameters for use in biosphere–atmosphere modelling are derived. The analysis of time-series from this dataset reveals, for the years 1982–2001, strong seasonal and interannual variability in European land surface vegetation state. Phenological metrics indicate a late and short growing season for the years 1985–1987, in addition to early and prolonged activity in the years 1989, 1990, 1994 and 1995. These variations are in close agreement with findings from phenological measurements at the surface; spring phenology is also shown to correlate particularly well with anomalies in winter temperature and winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Nevertheless, phenological metrics, which display considerable regional differences, could only be determined for vegetation with a seasonal behaviour. Trends in the phenological phases reveal a general shift to earlier (−0.54 days year−1) and prolonged (0.96 days year−1) growing periods which are statistically significant, especially for central Europe.

Bayesian parameter estimation for latent Markov random fields and social networks

Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the calculation of an intractable normalising constant. This problem has received much attention, but very little of this has focussed on the important practical case where the data consists of noisy or incomplete observations of the underlying hidden structure. This paper specifically addresses this problem, comparing two alternative methodologies. In the first of these approaches particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (Andrieu et al., 2010) is used to efficiently explore the parameter space, combined with the exchange algorithm (Murray et al., 2006) for avoiding the calculation of the intractable normalising constant (a proof showing that this combination targets the correct distribution in found in a supplementary appendix online). This approach is compared with approximate Bayesian computation (Pritchard et al., 1999). Applications to estimating the parameters of Ising models and exponential random graphs from noisy data are presented. Each algorithm used in the paper targets an approximation to the true posterior due to the use of MCMC to simulate from the latent graphical model, in lieu of being able to do this exactly in general. The supplementary appendix also describes the nature of the resulting approximation.