Empirical errors of small area estimates from the multisource National Forest Inventory in Eastern Finland

Abstract

Expositions médicamenteuses pendant la grossesse: une approche différenciée [Drug exposure during pregnancy: a differentiated approach].

Numerous drug exposures do occur unintentionally at the beginning of pregnancy. On the other hand, pursuing drug treatment may be necessary in women who wish to be pregnant. In these situations risk evaluation has to be done in a precise and differentiated manner, taking into account at the same time the risk for the fetus and maternal health. Teratovigilance services are able to give a thorough information enabling to avoid unwarranted drug arrests or pregnancy terminations. In return, physician's catamnesis about the outcome of the pregnancy exposed to one or several therapeutic agents will increase the bulk of knowledge health professionals and pregnant women have at their disposal.

Robust parametric indirect estimates of the expected cost of a hospital stay with covariates and censored data.

We consider the problem of estimating the mean hospital cost of stays of a class of patients (e.g., a diagnosis-related group) as a function of patient characteristics. The statistical analysis is complicated by the asymmetry of the cost distribution, the possibility of censoring on the cost variable, and the occurrence of outliers. These problems have often been treated separately in the literature, and a method offering a joint solution to all of them is still missing. Indirect procedures have been proposed, combining an estimate of the duration distribution with an estimate of the conditional cost for a given duration. We propose a parametric version of this approach, allowing for asymmetry and censoring in the cost distribution and providing a mean cost estimator that is robust in the presence of extreme values. In addition, the new method takes covariate information into account.

Comparisons of Estimates of Annual Exceedance-Probability Discharges for Small Drainage Basins in Iowa, Based on Data through Water Year 2013, TR-678, 2015

Traditionally, the Iowa Department of Transportation has used the Iowa Runoff Chart and single-variable regional-regression equations (RREs) from a U.S. Geological Survey report (published in 1987) as the primary methods to estimate annual exceedance-probability discharge (AEPD) for small (20 square miles or less) drainage basins in Iowa. With the publication of new multi- and single-variable RREs by the U.S. Geological Survey (published in 2013), the Iowa Department of Transportation needs to determine which methods of AEPD estimation provide the best accuracy and the least bias for small drainage basins in Iowa. Twenty five streamgages with drainage areas less than 2 square miles (mi2) and 55 streamgages with drainage areas between 2 and 20 mi2 were selected for the comparisons that used two evaluation metrics. Estimates of AEPDs calculated for the streamgages using the expected moments algorithm/multiple Grubbs-Beck test analysis method were compared to estimates of AEPDs calculated from the 2013 multivariable RREs; the 2013 single-variable RREs; the 1987 single-variable RREs; the TR-55 rainfall-runoff model; and the Iowa Runoff Chart. For the 25 streamgages with drainage areas less than 2 mi2, results of the comparisons seem to indicate the best overall accuracy and the least bias may be achieved by using the TR-55 method for flood regions 1 and 3 (published in 2013) and by using the 1987 single-variable RREs for flood region 2 (published in 2013). For drainage basins with areas between 2 and 20 mi2, results of the comparisons seem to indicate the best overall accuracy and the least bias may be achieved by using the 1987 single-variable RREs for the Southern Iowa Drift Plain landform region and for flood region 3 (published in 2013), by using the 2013 multivariable RREs for the Iowan Surface landform region, and by using the 2013 or 1987 single-variable RREs for flood region 2 (published in 2013). For all other landform or flood regions in Iowa, use of the 2013 single-variable RREs may provide the best overall accuracy and the least bias. An examination was conducted to understand why the 1987 single-variable RREs seem to provide better accuracy and less bias than either of the 2013 multi- or single-variable RREs. A comparison of 1-percent annual exceedance-probability regression lines for hydrologic regions 1–4 from the 1987 single-variable RREs and for flood regions 1–3 from the 2013 single-variable RREs indicates that the 1987 single-variable regional-regression lines generally have steeper slopes and lower discharges when compared to 2013 single-variable regional-regression lines for corresponding areas of Iowa. The combination of the definition of hydrologic regions, the lower discharges, and the steeper slopes of regression lines associated with the 1987 single-variable RREs seem to provide better accuracy and less bias when compared to the 2013 multi- or single-variable RREs; better accuracy and less bias was determined particularly for drainage areas less than 2 mi2, and also for some drainage areas between 2 and 20 mi2. The 2013 multi- and single-variable RREs are considered to provide better accuracy and less bias for larger drainage areas. Results of this study indicate that additional research is needed to address the curvilinear relation between drainage area and AEPDs for areas of Iowa.

Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth

[eng] We analyze the equilibrium of a multi-sector exogenous growth model where the introduction of minimum consumption requirements drives structural change. We show that equilibrium dynamics simultaneously exhibt structural change and balanced growth of aggregate variables as is observed in US when the initial intensity of minimum consumption requirements is sufficiently small. This intensity is measured by the ratio between the aggregate value of the minimum consumption requirements and GDP and, therefore, it is inversely related with the level of economic development. Initially rich economies benefit from an initially low intensity of the minimum consumption requirements and, as a consequence, these economies end up exhibiting balanced growth of aggregate variables, while there is structural change. In contrast, initially poor economies suffer from an initially large intensity of the minimum consumption requirements, which makes the growth of the aggregate variables unbalanced during a very large period. These economies may never exhibit simultaneously balanced growth of aggregate variables and structural change.

Reliable selfing rate estimates from imperfect population genetic data.

Genotypic frequencies at codominant marker loci in population samples convey information on mating systems. A classical way to extract this information is to measure heterozygote deficiencies (FIS) and obtain the selfing rate s from FIS = s/(2 - s), assuming inbreeding equilibrium. A major drawback is that heterozygote deficiencies are often present without selfing, owing largely to technical artefacts such as null alleles or partial dominance. We show here that, in the absence of gametic disequilibrium, the multilocus structure can be used to derive estimates of s independent of FIS and free of technical biases. Their statistical power and precision are comparable to those of FIS, although they are sensitive to certain types of gametic disequilibria, a bias shared with progeny-array methods but not FIS. We analyse four real data sets spanning a range of mating systems. In two examples, we obtain s = 0 despite positive FIS, strongly suggesting that the latter are artefactual. In the remaining examples, all estimates are consistent. All the computations have been implemented in a open-access and user-friendly software called rmes (robust multilocus estimate of selfing) available at http://ftp.cefe.cnrs.fr, and can be used on any multilocus data. Being able to extract the reliable information from imperfect data, our method opens the way to make use of the ever-growing number of published population genetic studies, in addition to the more demanding progeny-array approaches, to investigate selfing rates.

An overview of the metabolic differences between Bradyrhizobium japonicum 110 bacteria and differentiated bacteroids from soybean (Glycine max) root nodules: an in vitro 13C- and 31P-nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy study.

Bradyrhizobium japonicum is a symbiotic nitrogen-fixing soil bacteria that induce root nodules formation in legume soybean (Glycine max.). Using (13)C- and (31)P-nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, we have analysed the metabolite profiles of cultivated B. japonicum cells and bacteroids isolated from soybean nodules. Our results revealed some quantitative and qualitative differences between the metabolite profiles of bacteroids and their vegetative state. This includes in bacteroids a huge accumulation of soluble carbohydrates such as trehalose, glutamate, myo-inositol and homospermidine as well as Pi, nucleotide pools and intermediates of the primary carbon metabolism. Using this novel approach, these data show that most of the compounds detected in bacteroids reflect the metabolic adaptation of rhizobia to the surrounding microenvironment with its host plant cells.

Cost Analysis of Long-Term Treatment of Patients with Symptomatic Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease (GERD) with Esomeprazole On-Demand Treatment or Esomeprazole Continuous Treatment: An Open, Randomized, Multicenter Study in Switzerland.

Objectives: To assess the difference in direct medical costs between on-demand (OD) treatment with esomeprazole (E) 20 mg and continuous (C) treatment with E 20 mg q.d. from a clinical practice view in patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) symptoms. Methods: This open, randomized study (ONE: on-demand Nexium evaluation) compared two long-term management options with E 20 mg in endoscopically uninvestigated patients seeking primary care for GERD symptoms who demonstrated complete relief of symptoms after an initial treatment of 4 weeks with E 40 mg. Data on consumed quantities of all cost items were collected in the study, while data on prices during the time of study were collected separately. The analysis was done from a societal perspective. Results: Forty-nine percent (484 of 991) of patients randomized to the OD regimen and 46% (420 of 913) of the patients in the C group had at least one contact with the investigator that would have occurred nonprotocol-driven. The difference of the adjusted mean direct medical costs between the treatment groups was CHF 88.72 (95% confidence interval: CHF 41.34-153.95) in favor of the OD treatment strategy (Wilcoxon rank-sum test: P < 0.0001). Adjusted direct nonmedical costs and productivity loss were similar in both groups. Conclusions: The adjusted direct medical costs of a 6-month OD treatment with esomeprazole 20 mg in uninvestigated patients with symptoms of GERD were significantly lower compared with a continuous treatment with E 20 mg once a day. The OD therapy represents a cost-saving alternative to the continuous treatment strategy with E.

Cropland area estimates using Modis NDVI time series in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil

The objective of this work was to evaluate a simple, semi‑automated methodology for mapping cropland areas in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. A Fourier transform was applied over a time series of vegetation index products from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (Modis) sensor. This procedure allows for the evaluation of the amplitude of the periodic changes in vegetation response through time and the identification of areas with strong seasonal variation related to crop production. Annual cropland masks from 2006 to 2009 were generated and municipal cropland areas were estimated through remote sensing. We observed good agreement with official statistics on planted area, especially for municipalities with more than 10% of cropland cover (R² = 0.89), but poor agreement in municipalities with less than 5% crop cover (R² = 0.41). The assessed methodology can be used for annual cropland mapping over large production areas in Brazil.

Regulation of mass and function of pancreatic β-cells: identification of anti-apoptotic peptides and role of GLP-1

Résumé La masse de cellules β sécrétrices d'insuline est un tissu dynamique qui s'adapte aux variations de la demande métabolique pour assurer une normoglycémie. Cette adaptation se fait par un changement de sécrétion d'insuline et de la masse totale des cellules β. Une perte complète ou partielle des cellules β conduit respectivement à un diabète de type 1 et de type 2. Les mécanismes qui régulent la masse de cellules β et maintiennent leur phénotype differencié sont encore peu connus. Leur identification est nécessaire pour comprendre le développement du diabète et développer des stratégies de traitement. La greffe d'îlots est une approche thérapeutique prometteuse pour le diabète de type 1, mais est limitée par une perte précoce des cellules β due à une apoptose induite par des cytokines. Afin d'améliorer la survie des cellules β lors de la greffe d'îlots, le premier but était de trouver des peptides pouvant bloquer l'apoptose induite par FasL et TNF-α. Pour ce faire, deux librairies de phages ont été criblées pour sélectionner des peptides se liant au Fas DD ou au TNFRl DD. Nous avons identifié six peptides différents. Cependant, aucun d'entre eux n'était capable de protéger les cellules de l'apoptose induite par FasL ou TNF-α. Deuxièmement, le GLP-1 est une hormone qui stimule la sécrétion d'insuline, et est impliquée dans la prolifération des cellules β, la différentiation, et inhibe l'apoptose. Nous avons fait l'hypothèse que le GLP-1 joue un rôle crucial dans le contrôle de la masse et de la fonction des cellules β. Afin de l'évaluer, une analyse par puce à ADN a été réalisée en comparant des cellules βTC-Tet traitées avec du GLP-1 à des cellules non-traitées. 376 gènes régulés ont été identifiés, dont RGS2, CREM, ICERI et DUSP14, augmentés significativement par le GLP-1. Nous avons confirmé que le GLP-1 augmente l'expression de ces gènes, aussi bien au niveau des transcripts que des protéines. De plus, nous avons montré que le GLP-1 induit leur expression par activation de la voie cAMP/PKA, et nécessite l'entrée de calcium extracellulaire. D'après leur fonction biologique, nous avons ensuite supposé que ces gènes pourraient agir comme régulateurs négatifs de la signalisation du GLP-l, et donc freiner son effet proliférateur. Pour vérifier notre hypothèse, des siRNAs contre ces gènes ont été développés, et leurs effets sur la prolifération des cellules β seront évalués ultérieurement. Abstract The pancreatic β-cell mass is a dynamic tissue which adapts to variations in metabolic demand in order to ensure normoglycemia. This adaptation occurs through a change in both insulin secretion and the total mass of ,β-cells. An absolute or relative loss of β-cells leads to type 1 and type 2 diabetes, respectively. The mechanisms that regulate the pancreatic β-cell mass and maintain the fully differentiated phenotype of the insulin-secreting β-cells are only poorly defined. Their identification is required to understand the progression of diabetes, but also to design strategies for the treatment of diabetes. Islet transplantation is a promising therapeutic approach for type 1 diabetes, but it is still limited by an early graft loss due to cytokine-induced apoptosis. In order to improve β-cell survival during islet transplantation, our first goal was to find novel blockers of FasL- and TNF-α-mediated cell death in the form of peptides. To that end, we screened two phage display libraries to select Fas DD- or TNFR1 DD-binding peptides. We identified six different small peptides. However, none of these peptides was able to prevent cells from FasL- or TNF-α-mediated apoptosis. Secondly, GLP-1 is a hormone that has been shown to stimulate insulin secretion and to be involved in β-cell proliferation, differentiation and inhibition of apoptosis. We hypothesized that GLP-1 plays a crucial role to control mass and function of β-cells. To evaluate this hypothesis, we performed a cDNA microarray analysis with GLP-1-treated βTC-Tet cells compared to untreated cells. We found 376 regulated genes, among these, RGS2, CREM, ICERI and DUSP14, which were significantly upregulated by GLP-1. We confirmed that both their mRNA and protein levels were strongly and rapidly increased after GLP-1 treatment. Moreover, we found that GLP-1 activates their expression mainly through the activation of the cAMP/PKA signaling pathway, and requires extracellular calcium entry. According to their biological function, we then hypothesized that these genes might act as negative regulators of the GLP-1 signaling. In particular, they might brake the effects of GLP-1 on β-cell proliferation. To verify this hypothesis, siRNAs against these genes were developed. The effect of these siRNAs on GLP-1-induced β-cell proliferation will be evaluated later.

Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.

Population receptive field estimates of human auditory cortex.

Here we describe a method for measuring tonotopic maps and estimating bandwidth for voxels in human primary auditory cortex (PAC) using a modification of the population Receptive Field (pRF) model, developed for retinotopic mapping in visual cortex by Dumoulin and Wandell (2008). The pRF method reliably estimates tonotopic maps in the presence of acoustic scanner noise, and has two advantages over phase-encoding techniques. First, the stimulus design is flexible and need not be a frequency progression, thereby reducing biases due to habituation, expectation, and estimation artifacts, as well as reducing the effects of spatio-temporal BOLD nonlinearities. Second, the pRF method can provide estimates of bandwidth as a function of frequency. We find that bandwidth estimates are narrower for voxels within the PAC than in surrounding auditory responsive regions (non-PAC).

Wheat alleles introgress into selfing wild relatives: empirical estimates from approximate Bayesian computation in Aegilops triuncialis.

Extensive gene flow between wheat (Triticum sp.) and several wild relatives of the genus Aegilops has recently been detected despite notoriously high levels of selfing in these species. Here, we assess and model the spread of wheat alleles into natural populations of the barbed goatgrass (Aegilops triuncialis), a wild wheat relative prevailing in the Mediterranean flora. Our sampling, based on an extensive survey of 31 Ae. triuncialis populations collected along a 60 km × 20 km area in southern Spain (Grazalema Mountain chain, Andalousia, totalling 458 specimens), is completed with 33 wheat cultivars representative of the European domesticated pool. All specimens were genotyped with amplified fragment length polymorphism with the aim of estimating wheat admixture levels in Ae. triuncialis populations. This survey first confirmed extensive hybridization and backcrossing of wheat into the wild species. We then used explicit modelling of populations and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate the selfing rate of Ae. triuncialis along with the magnitude, the tempo and the geographical distance over which wheat alleles introgress into Ae. triuncialis populations. These simulations confirmed that extensive introgression of wheat alleles (2.7 × 10(-4) wheat immigrants for each Ae. triuncialis resident, at each generation) into Ae. triuncialis occurs despite a high selfing rate (Fis ≈ 1 and selfing rate = 97%). These results are discussed in the light of risks associated with the release of genetically modified wheat cultivars in Mediterranean agrosystems.

Secure Dynamic MANET On-demand (SEDYMO) Routing Protocol

This paper describes the state of the art of secure ad hoc routing protocols and presents SEDYMO, a mechanism to secure a dynamic multihop ad hoc routing protocol. The proposed solution defeats internal and external attacks usinga trustworthiness model based on a distributed certification authority. Digital signatures and hash chains are used to ensure the correctness of the protocol. The protocol is compared with other alternatives in terms of security strength, energy efficiency and time delay. Both computational and transmission costs are considered and it is shown that the secure protocol overhead is not a critical factor compared to the high network interface cost.