Participative modelling and big issues: defining features of system dynamics?

In this article the author discusses participative modelling in system dynamics and issues underlying it. It states that in the heart of system dynamics is the servo-mechanism theory. It argues that it is wrong to see an optimal solution being applied by the empowered parties just because it exhibits self-evident truth and an analysis is not enough to encourage people to do things in different way. It mentions other models including the simulation models used for developing strategy discussions.

Robust abandoned object detection integrating wide area visual surveillance and social context

This paper presents a video surveillance framework that robustly and efficiently detects abandoned objects in surveillance scenes. The framework is based on a novel threat assessment algorithm which combines the concept of ownership with automatic understanding of social relations in order to infer abandonment of objects. Implementation is achieved through development of a logic-based inference engine based on Prolog. Threat detection performance is conducted by testing against a range of datasets describing realistic situations and demonstrates a reduction in the number of false alarms generated. The proposed system represents the approach employed in the EU SUBITO project (Surveillance of Unattended Baggage and the Identification and Tracking of the Owner).

The future of video analytics for surveillance and its ethical implications

The current state of the art and direction of research in computer vision aimed at automating the analysis of CCTV images is presented. This includes low level identification of objects within the field of view of cameras, following those objects over time and between cameras, and the interpretation of those objects’ appearance and movements with respect to models of behaviour (and therefore intentions inferred). The potential ethical problems (and some potential opportunities) such developments may pose if and when deployed in the real world are presented, and suggestions made as to the necessary new regulations which will be needed if such systems are not to further enhance the power of the surveillers against the surveilled.

Video surveillance : past, present, and now the future

Video surveillance is a part of our daily life, even though we may not necessarily realize it. We might be monitored on the street, on highways, at ATMs, in public transportation vehicles, inside private and public buildings, in the elevators, in front of our television screens, next to our baby?s cribs, and any spot one can set a camera.

Domestic energy models: complexities in defining specific tools

The domestic (residential) sector accounts for 30% of the world’s energy consumption hence plays a substantial role in energy management and CO2 emissions reduction efforts. Energy models have been generally developed to mitigate the impact of climate change and for the sustainable management and planning of energy resources. Although there are different models and model categories, they are generally categorised into top down and bottom up. Significantly, top down models are based on aggregated data while bottom up models are based on disaggregated data. These approaches create fundamental differences which have been the centre of debate since the 1970’s. These differences have led to noticeable discrepancies in results which have led to authors arguing that the models are of a more complementary than a substituting nature. As a result developing methods suggest that there is the need to integrate either the two models (bottom up − top down) or aspects that combine two bottom up models or an upgrade of top down models to compensate for the documented limitations. Diverse schools of thought argue in favour of these integrations – currently known as hybrid models. In this paper complexities of identifying country specific and/or generic domestic energy models and their applications in different countries have been critically reviewed. Predominantly from the review it is evident that most of these methods have been adapted and used in the ‘western world’ with practically no such applications in Africa.

Scene understanding for auto-calibration of surveillance cameras

In the last decade, several research results have presented formulations for the auto-calibration problem. Most of these have relied on the evaluation of vanishing points to extract the camera parameters. Normally vanishing points are evaluated using pedestrians or the Manhattan World assumption i.e. it is assumed that the scene is necessarily composed of orthogonal planar surfaces. In this work, we present a robust framework for auto-calibration, with improved results and generalisability for real-life situations. This framework is capable of handling problems such as occlusions and the presence of unexpected objects in the scene. In our tests, we compare our formulation with the state-of-the-art in auto-calibration using pedestrians and Manhattan World-based assumptions. This paper reports on the experiments conducted using publicly available datasets; the results have shown that our formulation represents an improvement over the state-of-the-art.

Defining children's rights to work and care in Sub-Saharan Africa: tensions and challenges in policy and practice

This chapter explores the spatialities of children's rights through a focus on how children's paid and unpaid work in Sub-Saharan Africa intersects with wider debates about child labor, child domestic work and young caregiving. Several tensions surround the universalist and individualistic nature of the rights discourse in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa and policymakers, practitioners, children and community members have emphasized children's responsibilities to their families and communities, as well as their rights. The limitations of ILO definitions of child labor and child domestic work and UNCRC concerns about 'hazardous' and 'harmful' work are highlighted through examining the situation of children providing unpaid domestic and care support to family members in the private space of their own or a relative's home. Differing perspectives towards young caregiving have been adopted to date by policymakers and practitioners in East Africa, ranging from a child labor/ child protection/ abolitionist approach, to a 'young carers'/ child-centered rights perspective. These differing perspectives influence the level and nature of support and resources that children involved in care work may be able to access. A contextual, multi-sectorial approach to young caregiving is needed that seeks to understand children's, family members' and community members' perceptions of what constitutes inappropriate caring responsibilities within particular cultural contexts and how these should best be alleviated.

Defining key structural determinants for the pro-osteogenic activity of flavonoids

Epidemiological studies suggest that fruits and vegetables may play a role in promoting bone growth and preventing age-related bone loss, attributable, at least in part, to phytochemicals such as flavonoids stimulating osteoblastogenesis. Through systematically screening the effect of flavonoids on the osteogenic differentiation of human mesenchymal stem cells in vitro, and correlating activity with chemical structure using comparative molecular field analysis, we have successfully identified important structural features which relate to their activity, as well as reliably predicting the activity of compounds with unknown activity. Contour maps emphasised the importance of electronegativity, steric bulk, and a 2-C-3-C double bond at the flavonoid C-ring, as well as overall electropositivity and reduced steric bulk at the flavonoid B-ring. These results support a role for certain flavonoids in promoting osteogenic differentiation, thus their potential for preventing skeletal deterioration, as well as providing a foundation for the lead optimisation of novel bone anabolics.

Syndromic approach to arboviral diagnostics for global travelers as a basis for infectious disease surveillance

Background Arboviruses have overlapping geographical distributions and can cause symptoms that coincide with more common infections. Therefore, arbovirus infections are often neglected by travel diagnostics. Here, we assessed the potential of syndrome-based approaches for diagnosis and surveillance of neglected arboviral diseases in returning travelers. Method To map the patients high at risk of missed clinical arboviral infections we compared the quantity of all arboviral diagnostic requests by physicians in the Netherlands, from 2009 through 2013, with a literature-based assessment of the travelers’ likely exposure to an arbovirus. Results 2153 patients, with travel and clinical history were evaluated. The diagnostic assay for dengue virus (DENV) was the most commonly requested (86%). Of travelers returning from Southeast Asia with symptoms compatible with chikungunya virus (CHIKV), only 55% were tested. For travelers in Europe, arbovirus diagnostics were rarely requested. Over all, diagnostics for most arboviruses were requested only on severe clinical presentation. Conclusion Travel destination and syndrome were used inconsistently for triage of diagnostics, likely resulting in vast under-diagnosis of arboviral infections of public health significance. This study shows the need for more awareness among physicians and standardization of syndromic diagnostic algorithms

Surveillance for adverse events after DTwP/Hib vaccination in Brazil: Sensitivity and factors associated with reporting

We estimated the sensitivity, i.e., the proportion of all cases of adverse events following immunization (AEFIs) reported to the Brazilian passive surveillance for adverse events following immunization (PSAEFI) with the diphtheria-tetanus-whole-cell pertussis-Haemophilus influenzae type b (DTwP/Hib) vaccine, as well as investigating factors associated with AEFIs reporting. During 2003-2004, 8303 AEFIs associated with DTwP-Hib were reported; hypotonic-hyporesponsive episodes (HHEs), fever and convulsions being the most common. Cure without sequel was achieved in 98.4% of the cases. The mean sensitivity of the PSAEFI was 22.3% and 31.6%, respectively, for HHE and convulsions, varying widely among states. Reporting rates correlated positively with the Human Development Index and coverage of adequate prenatal care, correlating negatively with infant mortality rates. Quality of life indicators and the degree of organization of health services are associated with greater PSAEFI sensitivity. In addition to consistently describing the principal AEFIs, PSAEFI showed the DTwP/Hib vaccine to be safe and allayed public fears related to its use. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rotavirus Gastroenteritis in Children in 4 Regions in Brazil: A Hospital-Based Surveillance Study

Background. Rotavirus is a major cause of gastroenteritis in children. Knowledge of rotavirus genotypes is important for vaccination strategies. Methods. During 2005-2006, rotavirus surveillance studies were conducted in Sao Paulo, Salvador, Goiania, and Porto Alegre, Brazil. Stool samples were collected from children <5 years of age who had diarrhea and were screened by the Rotaclone Enzyme Immunoassay for the presence of rotavirus. Confirmed rotavirus-positive samples were characterized for P and G genotypes by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Results. A total of 510 stool samples were collected. Of these, 221 (43.3%) were positive for rotavirus. Overall, G9 was the predominant G type, followed by G2, and G1; P[4] and P[8] were the predominant P types. The most frequent G/P genotype combination detected was G2P[4], followed by G9P[8], G9P[4], and G1P[8]. G2P[4] was the predominant type in Goiania and Salvador; G9P[8] and G1P[8] were predominant in Sao Paulo and Porto Alegre, respectively. Conclusions. The prevalence, seasonality, and genotype distribution of rotavirus infection varied in different regions in Brazil. With immunization programs, continuous monitoring of rotavirus types is important to detect novel and emerging strains.

Hospital-based Surveillance to Evaluate the Impact of Rotavirus Vaccination in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background: Brazil implemented routine immunization with the human rotavirus vaccine, Rotarix, in 2006 and vaccination coverage reached 81% in 2008 in Sao Paulo. Our aim was to assess the impact of immunization on the incidence of severe rotavirus acute gastroenteritis (AGE). Methods: We performed a 5-year (2004-2008) prospective surveillance at a sentinel hospital in Sao Paulo, with routine testing for rotavirus in all children less than 5 years of age hospitalized with AGE. Genotypes of positive samples were determined by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Results: During the study, 655 children hospitalized with AGE were enrolled; of whom 169 (25.8%) were positive for rotavirus. In the post-vaccine period, a 59% reduction in the number of hospitalizations of rotavirus AGE and a 42.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 18.6%-59.0%; P = 0.001) reduction in the proportion of rotavirus-positive results among children younger than 5 years were observed, with the greatest decline among infants (69.2%; 95% CI, 24.7%-87.4%; P = 0.004). Furthermore, the number of all-cause hospitalizations for AGE was reduced by 29% among children aged <5 years. The onset and peak incidences of rotavirus AGE occurred 3 months later in the 2007 and 2008 seasons compared with previous years. Genotype G2 accounted for 15%, 70%, and 100% of all cases identified, respectively, in 2006, 2007, and 2008. Conclusions: After vaccine implementation, a marked decline in rotavirus AGE hospitalizations was demonstrated among children younger than 5 years of age, with the greatest reduction in the age groups targeted for vaccination. The predominance of genotype G2P[4] highlights the need of continued postlicensure surveillance studies.

Motion Detection for Video Surveillance

This thesis is related to the broad subject of automatic motion detection and analysis in videosurveillance image sequence. Besides, proposing the new unique solution, some of the previousalgorithms are evaluated, where some of the approaches are noticeably complementary sometimes.In real time surveillance, detecting and tracking multiple objects and monitoring their activities inboth outdoor and indoor environment are challenging task for the video surveillance system. Inpresence of a good number of real time problems limits scope for this work since the beginning. Theproblems are namely, illumination changes, moving background and shadow detection.An improved background subtraction method has been followed by foreground segmentation, dataevaluation, shadow detection in the scene and finally the motion detection method. The algorithm isapplied on to a number of practical problems to observe whether it leads us to the expected solution.Several experiments are done under different challenging problem environment. Test result showsthat under most of the problematic environment, the proposed algorithm shows the better qualityresult.