Robust parametric indirect estimates of the expected cost of a hospital stay with covariates and censored data.

We consider the problem of estimating the mean hospital cost of stays of a class of patients (e.g., a diagnosis-related group) as a function of patient characteristics. The statistical analysis is complicated by the asymmetry of the cost distribution, the possibility of censoring on the cost variable, and the occurrence of outliers. These problems have often been treated separately in the literature, and a method offering a joint solution to all of them is still missing. Indirect procedures have been proposed, combining an estimate of the duration distribution with an estimate of the conditional cost for a given duration. We propose a parametric version of this approach, allowing for asymmetry and censoring in the cost distribution and providing a mean cost estimator that is robust in the presence of extreme values. In addition, the new method takes covariate information into account.

Floods of 2008: How Did Aquatic Life in Streams Fare?

Summary of biological water quality data collected during the Floods of 2008.

Use of LIDAR-based Elevation Data for Highway Drainage Analysis: A Qualitative Assessment, 2003

US Geological Survey (USGS) based elevation data are the most commonly used data source for highway hydraulic analysis; however, due to the vertical accuracy of USGS-based elevation data, USGS data may be too “coarse” to adequately describe surface profiles of watershed areas or drainage patterns. Additionally hydraulic design requires delineation of much smaller drainage areas (watersheds) than other hydrologic applications, such as environmental, ecological, and water resource management. This research study investigated whether higher resolution LIDAR based surface models would provide better delineation of watersheds and drainage patterns as compared to surface models created from standard USGS-based elevation data. Differences in runoff values were the metric used to compare the data sets. The two data sets were compared for a pilot study area along the Iowa 1 corridor between Iowa City and Mount Vernon. Given the limited breadth of the analysis corridor, areas of particular emphasis were the location of drainage area boundaries and flow patterns parallel to and intersecting the road cross section. Traditional highway hydrology does not appear to be significantly impacted, or benefited, by the increased terrain detail that LIDAR provided for the study area. In fact, hydrologic outputs, such as streams and watersheds, may be too sensitive to the increased horizontal resolution and/or errors in the data set. However, a true comparison of LIDAR and USGS-based data sets of equal size and encompassing entire drainage areas could not be performed in this study. Differences may also result in areas with much steeper slopes or significant changes in terrain. LIDAR may provide possibly valuable detail in areas of modified terrain, such as roads. Better representations of channel and terrain detail in the vicinity of the roadway may be useful in modeling problem drainage areas and evaluating structural surety during and after significant storm events. Furthermore, LIDAR may be used to verify the intended/expected drainage patterns at newly constructed highways. LIDAR will likely provide the greatest benefit for highway projects in flood plains and areas with relatively flat terrain where slight changes in terrain may have a significant impact on drainage patterns.

Distribution of plasma levels of adiponectin and leptin in an adult Caucasian population.

OBJECTIVES: Little is known regarding the distribution and the determinants of leptin and adiponectin levels in the general population. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. PATIENTS: Women (3004) and men (2552) aged 35-74 living in Lausanne, Switzerland. MEASUREMENTS: Plasma levels of leptin and adiponectin (ELISA measurement). RESULTS: Women had higher leptin and adiponectin levels than men. In both genders, leptin and adiponectin levels increased with age. After adjusting for fat mass, leptin levels were significantly and negatively associated with age in women: 18.1 +/- 0.3, 17.1 +/- 0.3, 16.7 +/- 0.3 and 15.5 +/- 0.4 ng/ml (adjusted mean +/- SE) for age groups [35-44], [45-54], [55-64] and [65-75], respectively, P < 0.001. A similar but nonsignificant trend was also found in men. Conversely, the age-related increase of adiponectin was unrelated to body fat in both genders. Post-menopausal women had higher leptin and adiponectin levels than premenopausal women, independently of hormone replacement therapy. Although body fat mass was associated with leptin and adiponectin, the associations were stronger with body mass index (BMI), waist and hip in both genders. Finally, after adjusting for age and anthropometry, no relationships were found between leptin or adiponectin levels with alcohol, caffeine consumption and physical activity, whereas smoking and diabetes decreased leptin and adiponectin levels in women only. CONCLUSIONS: The age-related increase in leptin levels is attributable to changes in fat mass in women and probably also in men. Leptin and adiponectin levels are more related to BMI than to body fat mass. The effects of smoking and diabetes appear to be gender-specific.

Dynamics and vertical distribution of a Hrabeiella periglandulata (Annelida) population in South Moravia, Czech Republic

The objective of this work was to evaluate the density, dynamics and vertical distribution of a Hrabeiella periglandulata population in a forest soil at Brno, Czech Republic. From December 2003 to November 2004, two plots covered by mixed stands and two covered by coniferous stands were sampled monthly. Six soil cores per plot were taken down to 15 cm and subdivided into layers, which were subjected to wet funnel extraction. Missing in one of the coniferous stands H. periglandulata was abundant in the mixed stand with the highest soil pH. In this stand, monthly sampling continued until November 2005, with three additional samplings up to January 2007. Mean annual density was 2,672±1,534 individuals m-2. Population dynamics differed from those reported from Germany. Highest densities were reached in early summer, lowest between August and December. Due to aggregated horizontal distribution, differences between monthly values were often nonsignificant. No significant correlation with climatic data was found. Nevertheless, the observed dynamics corresponded to the climatic conditions, showing particularly the negative effect of drought. The population was evenly distributed in the sampled soil profile, only avoiding the organic layer. Except for a locality in Poland, this is the easternmost record of the species.

Distribution and agroclimatic characterization of potential cultivation regions of physic nut in Mexico

The purposes of this study were to determine the distribution and climatic patterns of current and future physic nut (Jatropha curcas) cultivation regions in Mexico, and to identify possible locations for in vivo germplasm banks establishment, using geographic information systems. Current climatic data were processed by Floramap software to obtain distribution maps and climatic patterns of regions where wild physic nuts could be found. DIVA-GIS software analyzed current climatic data (Worldclim model) and climatic data generated by CCM3 model to identify current and future physic nut cultivation regions, respectively. The distribution map showed that physic nut was present in most of the tropical and subtropical areas of Mexico, which corresponded to three agroclimatic regions. Climate types were Aw2, Aw1, and Bs1, for regions 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Nontoxic genotypes were associated with region 2, and toxic genotypes were associated with regions 1 and 3. According to the current and future cultivation regions identified, the best suitable ones to establish in vivo germplasm collections were the coast of Michoacán and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, located among the states of Veracruz, Oaxaca and Chiapas.

Conservation of the Eurasian Lynx (Lynx lynx) in a fragmented landscape - habitat models, dispersal and potential distribution

Abstract: The expansion of a recovering population - whether re-introduced or spontaneously returning - is shaped by (i) biological (intrinsic) factors such as the land tenure system or dispersal, (ii) the distribution and availability of resources (e.g. prey), (iii) habitat and landscape features, and (iv) human attitudes and activities. In order to develop efficient conservation and recovery strategies, we need to understand all these factors and to predict the potential distribution and explore ways to reach it. An increased number of lynx in the north-western Swiss Alps in the nineties lead to a new controversy about the return of this cat. When the large carnivores were given legal protection in many European countries, most organizations and individuals promoting their protection did not foresee the consequences. Management plans describing how to handle conflicts with large predators are needed to find a balance between "overabundance" and extinction. Wildlife and conservation biologists need to evaluate the various threats confronting populations so that adequate management decisions can be taken. I developed a GIS probability model for the lynx, based on habitat information and radio-telemetry data from the Swiss Jura Mountains, in order to predict the potential distribution of the lynx in this mountain range, which is presently only partly occupied by lynx. Three of the 18 variables tested for each square kilometre describing land use, vegetation, and topography, qualified to predict the probability of lynx presence. The resulting map was evaluated with data from dispersing subadult lynx. Young lynx that were not able to establish home ranges in what was identified as good lynx habitat did not survive their first year of independence, whereas the only one that died in good lynx habitat was illegally killed. Radio-telemetry fixes are often used as input data to calibrate habitat models. Radio-telemetry is the only way to gather accurate and unbiased data on habitat use of elusive larger terrestrial mammals. However, it is time consuming and expensive, and can therefore only be applied in limited areas. Habitat models extrapolated over large areas can in turn be problematic, as habitat characteristics and availability may change from one area to the other. I analysed the predictive power of Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) in Switzerland with the lynx as focal species. According to my results, the optimal sampling strategy to predict species distribution in an Alpine area lacking available data would be to pool presence cells from contrasted regions (Jura Mountains, Alps), whereas in regions with a low ecological variance (Jura Mountains), only local presence cells should be used for the calibration of the model. Dispersal influences the dynamics and persistence of populations, the distribution and abundance of species, and gives the communities and ecosystems their characteristic texture in space and time. Between 1988 and 2001, the spatio-temporal behaviour of subadult Eurasian lynx in two re-introduced populations in Switzerland was studied, based on 39 juvenile lynx of which 24 were radio-tagged to understand the factors influencing dispersal. Subadults become independent from their mothers at the age of 8-11 months. No sex bias neither in the dispersal rate nor in the distance moved was detected. Lynx are conservative dispersers, compared to bear and wolf, and settled within or close to known lynx occurrences. Dispersal distances reached in the high lynx density population - shorter than those reported in other Eurasian lynx studies - are limited by habitat restriction hindering connections with neighbouring metapopulations. I postulated that high lynx density would lead to an expansion of the population and validated my predictions with data from the north-western Swiss Alps where about 1995 a strong increase in lynx abundance took place. The general hypothesis that high population density will foster the expansion of the population was not confirmed. This has consequences for the re-introduction and recovery of carnivores in a fragmented landscape. To establish a strong source population in one place might not be an optimal strategy. Rather, population nuclei should be founded in several neighbouring patches. Exchange between established neighbouring subpopulations will later on take place, as adult lynx show a higher propensity to cross barriers than subadults. To estimate the potential population size of the lynx in the Jura Mountains and to assess possible corridors between this population and adjacent areas, I adapted a habitat probability model for lynx distribution in the Jura Mountains with new environmental data and extrapolated it over the entire mountain range. The model predicts a breeding population ranging from 74-101 individuals and from 51-79 individuals when continuous habitat patches < 50 km2 are disregarded. The Jura Mountains could once be part of a metapopulation, as potential corridors exist to the adjoining areas (Alps, Vosges Mountains, and Black Forest). Monitoring of the population size, spatial expansion, and the genetic surveillance in the Jura Mountains must be continued, as the status of the population is still critical. ENFA was used to predict the potential distribution of lynx in the Alps. The resulting model divided the Alps into 37 suitable habitat patches ranging from 50 to 18,711 km2, covering a total area of about 93,600 km2. When using the range of lynx densities found in field studies in Switzerland, the Alps could host a population of 961 to 1,827 residents. The results of the cost-distance analysis revealed that all patches were within the reach of dispersing lynx, as the connection costs were in the range of dispersal cost of radio-tagged subadult lynx moving through unfavorable habitat. Thus, the whole Alps could once be considered as a metapopulation. But experience suggests that only few disperser will cross unsuitable areas and barriers. This low migration rate may seldom allow the spontaneous foundation of new populations in unsettled areas. As an alternative to natural dispersal, artificial transfer of individuals across the barriers should be considered. Wildlife biologists can play a crucial role in developing adaptive management experiments to help managers learning by trial. The case of the lynx in Switzerland is a good example of a fruitful cooperation between wildlife biologists, managers, decision makers and politician in an adaptive management process. This cooperation resulted in a Lynx Management Plan which was implemented in 2000 and updated in 2004 to give the cantons directives on how to handle lynx-related problems. This plan was put into practice e.g. in regard to translocation of lynx into unsettled areas. Résumé: L'expansion d'une population en phase de recolonisation, qu'elle soit issue de réintroductions ou d'un retour naturel dépend 1) de facteurs biologiques tels que le système social et le mode de dispersion, 2) de la distribution et la disponibilité des ressources (proies), 3) de l'habitat et des éléments du paysage, 4) de l'acceptation de l'espèce par la population locale et des activités humaines. Afin de pouvoir développer des stratégies efficaces de conservation et de favoriser la recolonisation, chacun de ces facteurs doit être pris en compte. En plus, la distribution potentielle de l'espèce doit pouvoir être déterminée et enfin, toutes les possibilités pour atteindre les objectifs, examinées. La phase de haute densité que la population de lynx a connue dans les années nonante dans le nord-ouest des Alpes suisses a donné lieu à une controverse assez vive. La protection du lynx dans de nombreux pays européens, promue par différentes organisations, a entraîné des conséquences inattendues; ces dernières montrent que tout plan de gestion doit impérativement indiquer des pistes quant à la manière de gérer les conflits, tout en trouvant un équilibre entre l'extinction et la surabondance de l'espèce. Les biologistes de la conservation et de la faune sauvage doivent pour cela évaluer les différents risques encourus par les populations de lynx, afin de pouvoir rapidement prendre les meilleuresmdécisions de gestion. Un modèle d'habitat pour le lynx, basé sur des caractéristiques de l'habitat et des données radio télémétriques collectées dans la chaîne du Jura, a été élaboré afin de prédire la distribution potentielle dans cette région, qui n'est que partiellement occupée par l'espèce. Trois des 18 variables testées, décrivant pour chaque kilomètre carré l'utilisation du sol, la végétation ainsi que la topographie, ont été retenues pour déterminer la probabilité de présence du lynx. La carte qui en résulte a été comparée aux données télémétriques de lynx subadultes en phase de dispersion. Les jeunes qui n'ont pas pu établir leur domaine vital dans l'habitat favorable prédit par le modèle n'ont pas survécu leur première année d'indépendance alors que le seul individu qui est mort dans l'habitat favorable a été braconné. Les données radio-télémétriques sont souvent utilisées pour l'étalonnage de modèles d'habitat. C'est un des seuls moyens à disposition qui permette de récolter des données non biaisées et précises sur l'occupation de l'habitat par des mammifères terrestres aux moeurs discrètes. Mais ces méthodes de- mandent un important investissement en moyens financiers et en temps et peuvent, de ce fait, n'être appliquées qu'à des zones limitées. Les modèles d'habitat sont ainsi souvent extrapolés à de grandes surfaces malgré le risque d'imprécision, qui résulte des variations des caractéristiques et de la disponibilité de l'habitat d'une zone à l'autre. Le pouvoir de prédiction de l'Analyse Ecologique de la Niche (AEN) dans les zones où les données de présence n'ont pas été prises en compte dans le calibrage du modèle a été analysée dans le cas du lynx en Suisse. D'après les résultats obtenus, la meilleure mé- thode pour prédire la distribution du lynx dans une zone alpine dépourvue d'indices de présence est de combiner des données provenant de régions contrastées (Alpes, Jura). Par contre, seules les données sur la présence locale de l'espèce doivent être utilisées pour les zones présentant une faible variance écologique tel que le Jura. La dispersion influence la dynamique et la stabilité des populations, la distribution et l'abondance des espèces et détermine les caractéristiques spatiales et temporelles des communautés vivantes et des écosystèmes. Entre 1988 et 2001, le comportement spatio-temporel de lynx eurasiens subadultes de deux populations réintroduites en Suisse a été étudié, basé sur le suivi de 39 individus juvéniles dont 24 étaient munis d'un collier émetteur, afin de déterminer les facteurs qui influencent la dispersion. Les subadultes se sont séparés de leur mère à l'âge de 8 à 11 mois. Le sexe n'a pas eu d'influence sur le nombre d'individus ayant dispersés et la distance parcourue au cours de la dispersion. Comparé à l'ours et au loup, le lynx reste très modéré dans ses mouvements de dispersion. Tous les individus ayant dispersés se sont établis à proximité ou dans des zones déjà occupées par des lynx. Les distances parcourues lors de la dispersion ont été plus courtes pour la population en phase de haute densité que celles relevées par les autres études de dispersion du lynx eurasien. Les zones d'habitat peu favorables et les barrières qui interrompent la connectivité entre les populations sont les principales entraves aux déplacements, lors de la dispersion. Dans un premier temps, nous avons fait l'hypothèse que les phases de haute densité favorisaient l'expansion des populations. Mais cette hypothèse a été infirmée par les résultats issus du suivi des lynx réalisé dans le nord-ouest des Alpes, où la population connaissait une phase de haute densité depuis 1995. Ce constat est important pour la conservation d'une population de carnivores dans un habitat fragmenté. Ainsi, instaurer une forte population source à un seul endroit n'est pas forcément la stratégie la plus judicieuse. Il est préférable d'établir des noyaux de populations dans des régions voisines où l'habitat est favorable. Des échanges entre des populations avoisinantes pourront avoir lieu par la suite car les lynx adultes sont plus enclins à franchir les barrières qui entravent leurs déplacements que les individus subadultes. Afin d'estimer la taille de la population de lynx dans le Jura et de déterminer les corridors potentiels entre cette région et les zones avoisinantes, un modèle d'habitat a été utilisé, basé sur un nouveau jeu de variables environnementales et extrapolé à l'ensemble du Jura. Le modèle prédit une population reproductrice de 74 à 101 individus et de 51 à 79 individus lorsque les surfaces d'habitat d'un seul tenant de moins de 50 km2 sont soustraites. Comme des corridors potentiels existent effectivement entre le Jura et les régions avoisinantes (Alpes, Vosges, et Forêt Noire), le Jura pourrait faire partie à l'avenir d'une métapopulation, lorsque les zones avoisinantes seront colonisées par l'espèce. La surveillance de la taille de la population, de son expansion spatiale et de sa structure génétique doit être maintenue car le statut de cette population est encore critique. L'AEN a également été utilisée pour prédire l'habitat favorable du lynx dans les Alpes. Le modèle qui en résulte divise les Alpes en 37 sous-unités d'habitat favorable dont la surface varie de 50 à 18'711 km2, pour une superficie totale de 93'600 km2. En utilisant le spectre des densités observées dans les études radio-télémétriques effectuées en Suisse, les Alpes pourraient accueillir une population de lynx résidents variant de 961 à 1'827 individus. Les résultats des analyses de connectivité montrent que les sous-unités d'habitat favorable se situent à des distances telles que le coût de la dispersion pour l'espèce est admissible. L'ensemble des Alpes pourrait donc un jour former une métapopulation. Mais l'expérience montre que très peu d'individus traverseront des habitats peu favorables et des barrières au cours de leur dispersion. Ce faible taux de migration rendra difficile toute nouvelle implantation de populations dans des zones inoccupées. Une solution alternative existe cependant : transférer artificiellement des individus d'une zone à l'autre. Les biologistes spécialistes de la faune sauvage peuvent jouer un rôle important et complémentaire pour les gestionnaires de la faune, en les aidant à mener des expériences de gestion par essai. Le cas du lynx en Suisse est un bel exemple d'une collaboration fructueuse entre biologistes de la faune sauvage, gestionnaires, organes décisionnaires et politiciens. Cette coopération a permis l'élaboration du Concept Lynx Suisse qui est entré en vigueur en 2000 et remis à jour en 2004. Ce plan donne des directives aux cantons pour appréhender la problématique du lynx. Il y a déjà eu des applications concrètes sur le terrain, notamment par des translocations d'individus dans des zones encore inoccupées.

Finite mixture analysis of beauty-contest data using generalised beta distributions

This paper introduces a mixture model based on the beta distribution, without preestablishedmeans and variances, to analyze a large set of Beauty-Contest data obtainedfrom diverse groups of experiments (Bosch-Domenech et al. 2002). This model gives a bettert of the experimental data, and more precision to the hypothesis that a large proportionof individuals follow a common pattern of reasoning, described as iterated best reply (degenerate),than mixture models based on the normal distribution. The analysis shows thatthe means of the distributions across the groups of experiments are pretty stable, while theproportions of choices at dierent levels of reasoning vary across groups.

Lipoprotein distribution and biological variation of 24S- and 27-hydroxycholesterol in healthy volunteers.

24S- and 27-hydroxycholesterol are obligatory intermediates of cholesterol catabolism and play an important role in the maintenance of whole-body cholesterol homeostasis. Using an HPLC-MS method for oxysterol quantification, the distribution of esterified and unesterified oxysterols in lipoprotein subfractions as well as the influence of daytime, food intake and menstrual cycle on oxysterol concentrations were investigated in healthy volunteers. Moreover, reference intervals for 24S- and 27-hydroxycholesterol in plasma as well as the corresponding levels for 27-hydroxycholesterol in the HDL subfraction were established in 100 healthy volunteers. Both circulating oxysterols are mainly transported in association with HDL and LDL--primarily in the esterified form. No significant diurnal changes and no variations during menstrual cycle of either absolute or cholesterol-related plasma levels were detected. In contrast to 24S-hydroxycholesterol in plasma and 27-hydroxycholesterol in the HDL subfraction, the 95% reference intervals of 27-hydroxycholesterol both in plasma and the non-HDL subfraction were higher in males than in females. The concentrations of 27-hydroxycholesterol in plasma and the non-HDL subfraction showed strong positive correlations with the concentrations of cholesterol, non-HDL cholesterol and triglycerides. Our data on the lipoprotein distribution of oxysterols as well as on their intra- and inter-individual variation set the stage for future clinical studies.

Nonrandom Distribution of Cryptic Repeating Triplets of Purines and Pyrimidines (RNY)(n) in gp120 of HIV Type1.

Abstract We have analyzed purine (R) and pyrimidine (Y) codon patterns in variable and constant regions of HIV-1 gp120 in seven patients infected with different HIV-1 subtypes and naive to antiretroviral therapy. We have calculated the relative frequency of each in-frame codon RNY, YNR, RNR, and YNY (N=any nucleotide) in variable and constant regions of gp120, in the sequence within indels and at indels' flanking sites. Our data show that hypervariable regions V1, V2, V4, and V5 are characterized by the presence of long stretches of RNY codons constituting the majority of the sequence portion within insertions/deletions. In full-length gp120 and within inserted/deleted fragments the number of AVT (V=A, C, G) codons did not exceed 50% of the total RNY codons. RNY strings in variable regions spanned up to 21 codons and were always in frame. In contrast, RNY strings in constant regions were mostly out of frame and their length was limited to five codons. The frequency of the codon RNY was found to be significantly higher in variable regions (p<0.0001; t-test), within indels, and at indels' flanking sites (p<0.0001; χ(2) test). Analysis of the distribution of RNY strings equal to or longer than five codons in the full genome of HXB2 also shows that these sequences are mostly out of frame, unless they contain a potential N-glycosylation site or an asparagine. These data suggest that cryptic repeats of RNY may play a role in the genesis of multiple base insertions and deletions in hypervariable regions of gp120.

Fish Habitat Indicators for the Assessment of Wadeable, Warmwater Streams

Physical habitat characteristics such as stream width, depth, instream cover, and substrate composition are important environmental factors that shape Iowa’s stream fish species assemblages. The Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) stream biological assessment program collects physical habitat data to help interpret fish assemblage sampling results in order to assess stream health condition and the attainment status of designated aquatic life uses. The quantitative habitat indicators and interpretative guidelines developed in this study are designed for specific applications within the stream bioassessment program. These tools might also be useful to natural resource managers for purposes such as stream habitat improvement prioritization, goal-setting, and performance assessment.

Trace element distribution among rock-forming minerals from metamorphosed to partially molten basic igneous rocks in a contact aureole (Fuerteventura, Canaries)

Low pressure partial melting of basanitic and ankaramitic dykes gave rise to unusual, zebra-like migmatites, in the contact aureole of a layered pyroxenite-gabbro intrusion, in the root zone of an ocean island (Basal Complex, Fuerteventura, Canary Islands). These migmatites are characterised by a dense network of closely spaced, millimetre-wide leucocratic segregations. Their mineralogy consists of plagioclase (An(32-36)), diopside, biotite, oxides (magnetite, ilmenite), +/-amphibole, dominated by plagioclase in the leucosome and diopside in the melanosome. The melanosome is almost completely recrystallised, with the preservation of large, relict igneous diopside phenocrysts in dyke centres. Comparison of whole-rock and mineral major- and trace-element data allowed us to assess the redistribution of elements between different mineral phases and generations during contact metamorphism and partial melting. Dykes within and outside the thermal aureole behaved like closed chemical systems. Nevertheless, Zr, Hf, Y and REEs were internally redistributed, as deduced by comparing the trace element contents of the various diopside generations. Neocrystallised diopside - in the melanosome, leucosome and as epitaxial phenocryst rims - from the migmatite zone, are all enriched in Zr, Hf, Y and REEs compared to relict phenocrysts. This has been assigned to the liberation of trace elements on the breakdown of enriched primary minerals, kaersutite and sphene, on entering the thermal aureole. Major and trace element compositions of minerals in migmatite melanosomes and leucosomes are almost identical, pointing to a syn- or post-solidus reequilibration on the cooling of the migmatite terrain i.e. mineral-melt equilibria were reset to mineral-mineral equilibria. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Crystal size distribution of periclase in contact metamorphic dolomite marbles from the southern Adamello Massif, Italy

Crystal size distributions (CSD) of periclase in contact metamorphic dolomite marbles are presented for two profiles near the Cima Uzza summit in the southern Adamello Massif (Italy). The database was combined with geochemical and petrological information to deduce the controls on the periclase-forming reaction. The contact metamorphic dolomite marbles are exposed at the contact of mafic intrusive rocks and are partially surrounded by them. Brucite is retrograde and pseudomorphs spherical periclase crystals. Prograde periclase growth is the consequence of limited infiltration of water-rich fluid at T near 605C. Stable isotope data show depletion in (13)C and (18)O over a narrow region (40 cm) near the magmatic contact, whereas the periclase-forming reaction front extends up to 4 m from the contact. CSD analyses along the two profiles show that the median grain size of the periclase crystals does not change, but that there is a progressively greater distribution of grain sizes, including a greater proportion of larger grains, with increasing distance from the contact. A qualitative model, based on the textural and geochemical data, attributes these variations in grain size to changing reaction affinities along a kinetically dispersed infiltration front. This study highlights the need to invoke disequilibrium processes for metamorphic mineral growth and expands the use of CSDs to systems of mineral formation driven by fluid infiltration.

The normal distribution in some constrained sample spaces

Phenomena with a constrained sample space appear frequently in practice. This is the case e.g. with strictly positive data, or with compositional data, like percentages or proportions. If the natural measure of difference is not the absolute one, simple algebraic properties show that it is more convenient to work with a geometry different from the usual Euclidean geometry in real space, and with a measure different from the usual Lebesgue measure, leading to alternative models which better fit the phenomenon under study. The general approach is presented and illustrated using the normal distribution, both on the positive real line and on the D-part simplex. The original ideas of McAlister in his introduction to the lognormal distribution in 1879, are recovered and updated

Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0