Signal propagation in Bayesian networks and its relationship with intrinsically multivariate predictive variables

A set of predictor variables is said to be intrinsically multivariate predictive (IMP) for a target variable if all properly contained subsets of the predictor set are poor predictors of the. target but the full set predicts the target with great accuracy. In a previous article, the main properties of IMP Boolean variables have been analytically described, including the introduction of the IMP score, a metric based on the coefficient of determination (CoD) as a measure of predictiveness with respect to the target variable. It was shown that the IMP score depends on four main properties: logic of connection, predictive power, covariance between predictors and marginal predictor probabilities (biases). This paper extends that work to a broader context, in an attempt to characterize properties of discrete Bayesian networks that contribute to the presence of variables (network nodes) with high IMP scores. We have found that there is a relationship between the IMP score of a node and its territory size, i.e., its position along a pathway with one source: nodes far from the source display larger IMP scores than those closer to the source, and longer pathways display larger maximum IMP scores. This appears to be a consequence of the fact that nodes with small territory have larger probability of having highly covariate predictors, which leads to smaller IMP scores. In addition, a larger number of XOR and NXOR predictive logic relationships has positive influence over the maximum IMP score found in the pathway. This work presents analytical results based on a simple structure network and an analysis involving random networks constructed by computational simulations. Finally, results from a real Bayesian network application are provided. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stochastic competitive learning in complex networks

Competitive learning is an important machine learning approach which is widely employed in artificial neural networks. In this paper, we present a rigorous definition of a new type of competitive learning scheme realized on large-scale networks. The model consists of several particles walking within the network and competing with each other to occupy as many nodes as possible, while attempting to reject intruder particles. The particle's walking rule is composed of a stochastic combination of random and preferential movements. The model has been applied to solve community detection and data clustering problems. Computer simulations reveal that the proposed technique presents high precision of community and cluster detections, as well as low computational complexity. Moreover, we have developed an efficient method for estimating the most likely number of clusters by using an evaluator index that monitors the information generated by the competition process itself. We hope this paper will provide an alternative way to the study of competitive learning.

Using complex networks concepts to assess approaches for citations in scientific papers

The number of citations received by authors in scientific journals has become a major parameter to assess individual researchers and the journals themselves through the impact factor. A fair assessment therefore requires that the criteria for selecting references in a given manuscript should be unbiased with regard to the authors or journals cited. In this paper, we assess approaches for citations considering two recommendations for authors to follow while preparing a manuscript: (i) consider similarity of contents with the topics investigated, lest related work should be reproduced or ignored; (ii) perform a systematic search over the network of citations including seminal or very related papers. We use formalisms of complex networks for two datasets of papers from the arXiv and the Web of Science repositories to show that neither of these two criteria is fulfilled in practice. By representing the texts as complex networks we estimated a similarity index between pieces of texts and found that the list of references did not contain the most similar papers in the dataset. This was quantified by calculating a consistency index, whose maximum value is one if the references in a given paper are the most similar in the dataset. For the areas of "complex networks" and "graphenes", the consistency index was only 0.11-0.23 and 0.10-0.25, respectively. To simulate a systematic search in the citation network, we employed a traditional random walk search (i.e. diffusion) and a random walk whose probabilities of transition are proportional to the number of the ingoing edges of the neighbours. The frequency of visits to the nodes (papers) in the network had a very small correlation with either the actual list of references in the papers or with the number of downloads from the arXiv repository. Therefore, apparently the authors and users of the repository did not follow the criterion related to a systematic search over the network of citations. Based on these results, we propose an approach that we believe is fairer for evaluating and complementing citations of a given author, effectively leading to a virtual scientometry.

Phase-disorder-induced firing activity in excitable neuronal networks with attractive and repulsive coupling

It has been revealed that the network of excitable neurons via attractive coupling can generate spikes under stimuli of subthreshold signals with disordered phases. In this paper, we explore the firing activity induced by phase disorder in excitable neuronal networks consisting of both attractive and repulsive coupling. By increasing the fraction of repulsive coupling, we find that, in the weak coupling strength case, the firing threshold of phase disorder is increased and the system response to subthreshold signals is decreased, indicating that the effect of inducing neuron firing by phase disorder is weakened with repulsive coupling. Interestingly, in the large coupling strength case, we see an opposite situation, where the coupled neurons show a rather large response to the subthreshold signals even with small phase disorder. The latter case implies that the effect of phase disorder is enhanced by repulsive coupling. A system of two-coupled excitable neurons is used to explain the role of repulsive coupling on phase-disorder-induced firing activity.

Multidimensional Projections for Visual Analysis of Social Networks

Visual analysis of social networks is usually based on graph drawing algorithms and tools. However, social networks are a special kind of graph in the sense that interpretation of displayed relationships is heavily dependent on context. Context, in its turn, is given by attributes associated with graph elements, such as individual nodes, edges, and groups of edges, as well as by the nature of the connections between individuals. In most systems, attributes of individuals and communities are not taken into consideration during graph layout, except to derive weights for force-based placement strategies. This paper proposes a set of novel tools for displaying and exploring social networks based on attribute and connectivity mappings. These properties are employed to layout nodes on the plane via multidimensional projection techniques. For the attribute mapping, we show that node proximity in the layout corresponds to similarity in attribute, leading to easiness in locating similar groups of nodes. The projection based on connectivity yields an initial placement that forgoes force-based or graph analysis algorithm, reaching a meaningful layout in one pass. When a force algorithm is then applied to this initial mapping, the final layout presents better properties than conventional force-based approaches. Numerical evaluations show a number of advantages of pre-mapping points via projections. User evaluation demonstrates that these tools promote ease of manipulation as well as fast identification of concepts and associations which cannot be easily expressed by conventional graph visualization alone. In order to allow better space usage for complex networks, a graph mapping on the surface of a sphere is also implemented.

PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF RESOURCE-AWARE BUSINESS PROCESSES USING STOCHASTIC AUTOMATA NETWORKS

In this work, we study the performance evaluation of resource-aware business process models. We define a new framework that allows the generation of analytical models for performance evaluation from business process models annotated with resource management information. This framework is composed of a new notation that allows the specification of resource management constraints and a method to convert a business process specification and its resource constraints into Stochastic Automata Networks (SANs). We show that the analysis of the generated SAN model provides several performance indices, such as average throughput of the system, average waiting time, average queues size, and utilization rate of resources. Using the BP2SAN tool - our implementation of the proposed framework - and a SAN solver (such as the PEPS tool) we show through a simple use-case how a business specialist with no skills in stochastic modeling can easily obtain performance indices that, in turn, can help to identify bottlenecks on the model, to perform workload characterization, to define the provisioning of resources, and to study other performance related aspects of the business process.

Texture descriptor based on partially self-avoiding deterministic walker on networks

Texture image analysis is an important field of investigation that has attracted the attention from computer vision community in the last decades. In this paper, a novel approach for texture image analysis is proposed by using a combination of graph theory and partially self-avoiding deterministic walks. From the image, we build a regular graph where each vertex represents a pixel and it is connected to neighboring pixels (pixels whose spatial distance is less than a given radius). Transformations on the regular graph are applied to emphasize different image features. To characterize the transformed graphs, partially self-avoiding deterministic walks are performed to compose the feature vector. Experimental results on three databases indicate that the proposed method significantly improves correct classification rate compared to the state-of-the-art, e.g. from 89.37% (original tourist walk) to 94.32% on the Brodatz database, from 84.86% (Gabor filter) to 85.07% on the Vistex database and from 92.60% (original tourist walk) to 98.00% on the plant leaves database. In view of these results, it is expected that this method could provide good results in other applications such as texture synthesis and texture segmentation. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bagging k-dependence probabilistic networks: An alternative powerful fraud detection tool

Fraud is a global problem that has required more attention due to an accentuated expansion of modern technology and communication. When statistical techniques are used to detect fraud, whether a fraud detection model is accurate enough in order to provide correct classification of the case as a fraudulent or legitimate is a critical factor. In this context, the concept of bootstrap aggregating (bagging) arises. The basic idea is to generate multiple classifiers by obtaining the predicted values from the adjusted models to several replicated datasets and then combining them into a single predictive classification in order to improve the classification accuracy. In this paper, for the first time, we aim to present a pioneer study of the performance of the discrete and continuous k-dependence probabilistic networks within the context of bagging predictors classification. Via a large simulation study and various real datasets, we discovered that the probabilistic networks are a strong modeling option with high predictive capacity and with a high increment using the bagging procedure when compared to traditional techniques. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hierarchical multi-label classification using local neural networks

Hierarchical multi-label classification is a complex classification task where the classes involved in the problem are hierarchically structured and each example may simultaneously belong to more than one class in each hierarchical level. In this paper, we extend our previous works, where we investigated a new local-based classification method that incrementally trains a multi-layer perceptron for each level of the classification hierarchy. Predictions made by a neural network in a given level are used as inputs to the neural network responsible for the prediction in the next level. We compare the proposed method with one state-of-the-art decision-tree induction method and two decision-tree induction methods, using several hierarchical multi-label classification datasets. We perform a thorough experimental analysis, showing that our method obtains competitive results to a robust global method regarding both precision and recall evaluation measures.

Design and control techniques of optical networks

The world of communication has changed quickly in the last decade resulting in the the rapid increase in the pace of peoples’ lives. This is due to the explosion of mobile communication and the internet which has now reached all levels of society. With such pressure for access to communication there is increased demand for bandwidth. Photonic technology is the right solution for high speed networks that have to supply wide bandwidth to new communication service providers. In particular this Ph.D. dissertation deals with DWDM optical packet-switched networks. The issue introduces a huge quantity of problems from physical layer up to transport layer. Here this subject is tackled from the network level perspective. The long term solution represented by optical packet switching has been fully explored in this years together with the Network Research Group at the department of Electronics, Computer Science and System of the University of Bologna. Some national as well as international projects supported this research like the Network of Excellence (NoE) e-Photon/ONe, funded by the European Commission in the Sixth Framework Programme and INTREPIDO project (End-to-end Traffic Engineering and Protection for IP over DWDM Optical Networks) funded by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Scientific Research. Optical packet switching for DWDM networks is studied at single node level as well as at network level. In particular the techniques discussed are thought to be implemented for a long-haul transport network that connects local and metropolitan networks around the world. The main issues faced are contention resolution in a asynchronous variable packet length environment, adaptive routing, wavelength conversion and node architecture. Characteristics that a network must assure as quality of service and resilience are also explored at both node and network level. Results are mainly evaluated via simulation and through analysis.

High-performance switching architectures for optical networks

The need for high bandwidth, due to the explosion of new multi\-media-oriented IP-based services, as well as increasing broadband access requirements is leading to the need of flexible and highly reconfigurable optical networks. While transmission bandwidth does not represent a limit due to the huge bandwidth provided by optical fibers and Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing (DWDM) technology, the electronic switching nodes in the core of the network represent the bottleneck in terms of speed and capacity for the overall network. For this reason DWDM technology must be exploited not only for data transport but also for switching operations. In this Ph.D. thesis solutions for photonic packet switches, a flexible alternative with respect to circuit-switched optical networks are proposed. In particular solutions based on devices and components that are expected to mature in the near future are proposed, with the aim to limit the employment of complex components. The work presented here is the result of part of the research activities performed by the Networks Research Group at the Department of Electronics, Computer Science and Systems (DEIS) of the University of Bologna, Italy. In particular, the work on optical packet switching has been carried on within three relevant research projects: the e-Photon/ONe and e-Photon/ONe+ projects, funded by the European Union in the Sixth Framework Programme, and the national project OSATE funded by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Scientific Research. The rest of the work is organized as follows. Chapter 1 gives a brief introduction to network context and contention resolution in photonic packet switches. Chapter 2 presents different strategies for contention resolution in wavelength domain. Chapter 3 illustrates a possible implementation of one of the schemes proposed in chapter 2. Then, chapter 4 presents multi-fiber switches, which employ jointly wavelength and space domains to solve contention. Chapter 5 shows buffered switches, to solve contention in time domain besides wavelength domain. Finally chapter 6 presents a cost model to compare different switch architectures in terms of cost.

Body ares networks for human motor assessment

Healthcare, Human Computer Interfaces (HCI), Security and Biometry are the most promising application scenario directly involved in the Body Area Networks (BANs) evolution. Both wearable devices and sensors directly integrated in garments envision a word in which each of us is supervised by an invisible assistant monitoring our health and daily-life activities. New opportunities are enabled because improvements in sensors miniaturization and transmission efficiency of the wireless protocols, that achieved the integration of high computational power aboard independent, energy-autonomous, small form factor devices. Application’s purposes are various: (I) data collection to achieve off-line knowledge discovery; (II) user notification of his/her activities or in case a danger occurs; (III) biofeedback rehabilitation; (IV) remote alarm activation in case the subject need assistance; (V) introduction of a more natural interaction with the surrounding computerized environment; (VI) users identification by physiological or behavioral characteristics. Telemedicine and mHealth [1] are two of the leading concepts directly related to healthcare. The capability to borne unobtrusiveness objects supports users’ autonomy. A new sense of freedom is shown to the user, not only supported by a psychological help but a real safety improvement. Furthermore, medical community aims the introduction of new devices to innovate patient treatments. In particular, the extension of the ambulatory analysis in the real life scenario by proving continuous acquisition. The wide diffusion of emerging wellness portable equipment extended the usability of wearable devices also for fitness and training by monitoring user performance on the working task. The learning of the right execution techniques related to work, sport, music can be supported by an electronic trainer furnishing the adequate aid. HCIs made real the concept of Ubiquitous, Pervasive Computing and Calm Technology introduced in the 1988 by Marc Weiser and John Seeley Brown. They promotes the creation of pervasive environments, enhancing the human experience. Context aware, adaptive and proactive environments serve and help people by becoming sensitive and reactive to their presence, since electronics is ubiquitous and deployed everywhere. In this thesis we pay attention to the integration of all the aspects involved in a BAN development. Starting from the choice of sensors we design the node, configure the radio network, implement real-time data analysis and provide a feedback to the user. We present algorithms to be implemented in wearable assistant for posture and gait analysis and to provide assistance on different walking conditions, preventing falls. Our aim, expressed by the idea to contribute at the development of a non proprietary solutions, driven us to integrate commercial and standard solutions in our devices. We use sensors available on the market and avoided to design specialized sensors in ASIC technologies. We employ standard radio protocol and open source projects when it was achieved. The specific contributions of the PhD research activities are presented and discussed in the following. • We have designed and build several wireless sensor node providing both sensing and actuator capability making the focus on the flexibility, small form factor and low power consumption. The key idea was to develop a simple and general purpose architecture for rapid analysis, prototyping and deployment of BAN solutions. Two different sensing units are integrated: kinematic (3D accelerometer and 3D gyroscopes) and kinetic (foot-floor contact pressure forces). Two kind of feedbacks were implemented: audio and vibrotactile. • Since the system built is a suitable platform for testing and measuring the features and the constraints of a sensor network (radio communication, network protocols, power consumption and autonomy), we made a comparison between Bluetooth and ZigBee performance in terms of throughput and energy efficiency. Test in the field evaluate the usability in the fall detection scenario. • To prove the flexibility of the architecture designed, we have implemented a wearable system for human posture rehabilitation. The application was developed in conjunction with biomedical engineers who provided the audio-algorithms to furnish a biofeedback to the user about his/her stability. • We explored off-line gait analysis of collected data, developing an algorithm to detect foot inclination in the sagittal plane, during walk. • In collaboration with the Wearable Lab – ETH, Zurich, we developed an algorithm to monitor the user during several walking condition where the user carry a load. The remainder of the thesis is organized as follows. Chapter I gives an overview about Body Area Networks (BANs), illustrating the relevant features of this technology and the key challenges still open. It concludes with a short list of the real solutions and prototypes proposed by academic research and manufacturers. The domain of the posture and gait analysis, the methodologies, and the technologies used to provide real-time feedback on detected events, are illustrated in Chapter II. The Chapter III and IV, respectively, shown BANs developed with the purpose to detect fall and monitor the gait taking advantage by two inertial measurement unit and baropodometric insoles. Chapter V reports an audio-biofeedback system to improve balance on the information provided by the use centre of mass. A walking assistant based on the KNN classifier to detect walking alteration on load carriage, is described in Chapter VI.

The swelling behaviour of polyelectrolyte networks

Being basic ingredients of numerous daily-life products with significant industrial importance as well as basic building blocks for biomaterials, charged hydrogels continue to pose a series of unanswered challenges for scientists even after decades of practical applications and intensive research efforts. Despite a rather simple internal structure it is mainly the unique combination of short- and long-range forces which render scientific investigations of their characteristic properties to be quite difficult. Hence early on computer simulations were used to link analytical theory and empirical experiments, bridging the gap between the simplifying assumptions of the models and the complexity of real world measurements. Due to the immense numerical effort, even for high performance supercomputers, system sizes and time scales were rather restricted until recently, whereas it only now has become possible to also simulate a network of charged macromolecules. This is the topic of the presented thesis which investigates one of the fundamental and at the same time highly fascinating phenomenon of polymer research: The swelling behaviour of polyelectrolyte networks. For this an extensible simulation package for the research on soft matter systems, ESPResSo for short, was created which puts a particular emphasis on mesoscopic bead-spring-models of complex systems. Highly efficient algorithms and a consistent parallelization reduced the necessary computation time for solving equations of motion even in case of long-ranged electrostatics and large number of particles, allowing to tackle even expensive calculations and applications. Nevertheless, the program has a modular and simple structure, enabling a continuous process of adding new potentials, interactions, degrees of freedom, ensembles, and integrators, while staying easily accessible for newcomers due to a Tcl-script steering level controlling the C-implemented simulation core. Numerous analysis routines provide means to investigate system properties and observables on-the-fly. Even though analytical theories agreed on the modeling of networks in the past years, our numerical MD-simulations show that even in case of simple model systems fundamental theoretical assumptions no longer apply except for a small parameter regime, prohibiting correct predictions of observables. Applying a "microscopic" analysis of the isolated contributions of individual system components, one of the particular strengths of computer simulations, it was then possible to describe the behaviour of charged polymer networks at swelling equilibrium in good solvent and close to the Theta-point by introducing appropriate model modifications. This became possible by enhancing known simple scaling arguments with components deemed crucial in our detailed study, through which a generalized model could be constructed. Herewith an agreement of the final system volume of swollen polyelectrolyte gels with results of computer simulations could be shown successfully over the entire investigated range of parameters, for different network sizes, charge fractions, and interaction strengths. In addition, the "cell under tension" was presented as a self-regulating approach for predicting the amount of swelling based on the used system parameters only. Without the need for measured observables as input, minimizing the free energy alone already allows to determine the the equilibrium behaviour. In poor solvent the shape of the network chains changes considerably, as now their hydrophobicity counteracts the repulsion of like-wise charged monomers and pursues collapsing the polyelectrolytes. Depending on the chosen parameters a fragile balance emerges, giving rise to fascinating geometrical structures such as the so-called pear-necklaces. This behaviour, known from single chain polyelectrolytes under similar environmental conditions and also theoretically predicted, could be detected for the first time for networks as well. An analysis of the total structure factors confirmed first evidences for the existence of such structures found in experimental results.

Microscopic Modeling on complex networks

The field of complex systems is a growing body of knowledge, It can be applied to countless different topics, from physics to computer science, biology, information theory and sociology. The main focus of this work is the use of microscopic models to study the behavior of urban mobility, which characteristics make it a paradigmatic example of complexity. In particular, simulations are used to investigate phase changes in a finite size open Manhattan-like urban road network under different traffic conditions, in search for the parameters to identify phase transitions, equilibrium and non-equilibrium conditions . It is shown how the flow-density macroscopic fundamental diagram of the simulation shows,like real traffic, hysteresis behavior in the transition from the congested phase to the free flow phase, and how the different regimes can be identified studying the statistics of road occupancy.

Computer simulations of microstructures related to the olivine spinel transition

Tiefherd-Beben, die im oberen Erdmantel in einer Tiefe von ca. 400 km auftreten, werden gewöhnlich mit dem in gleicher Tiefe auftretenden druckabhängigen, polymorphen Phasenübergang von Olivine (α-Phase) zu Spinel (β-Phase) in Verbindung gebracht. Es ist jedoch nach wie vor unklar, wie der Phasenübergang mit dem mechanischen Versagen des Mantelmaterials zusammenhängt. Zur Zeit werden im Wesentlichen zwei Modelle diskutiert, die entweder Mikrostrukturen, die durch den Phasenübergang entstehen, oder aber die rheologischen Veränderungen des Mantelgesteins durch den Phasenübergang dafür verantwortlich machen. Dabei sind Untersuchungen der Olivin→Spinel Umwandlung durch die Unzugänglichkeit des natürlichen Materials vollständig auf theoretische Überlegungen sowie Hochdruck-Experimente und Numerische Simulationen beschränkt. Das zentrale Thema dieser Dissertation war es, ein funktionierendes Computermodell zur Simulation der Mikrostrukturen zu entwickeln, die durch den Phasenübergang entstehen. Des Weiteren wurde das Computer Modell angewandt um die mikrostrukturelle Entwicklung von Spinelkörnern und die Kontrollparameter zu untersuchen. Die Arbeit ist daher in zwei Teile unterteilt: Der erste Teil (Kap. 2 und 3) behandelt die physikalischen Gesetzmäßigkeiten und die prinzipielle Funktionsweise des Computer Modells, das auf der Kombination von Gleichungen zur Errechnung der kinetischen Reaktionsgeschwindigkeit mit Gesetzen der Nichtgleichgewichtsthermodynamik unter nicht-hydostatischen Bedingungen beruht. Das Computermodell erweitert ein Federnetzwerk der Software latte aus dem Programmpaket elle. Der wichtigste Parameter ist dabei die Normalspannung auf der Kornoberfläche von Spinel. Darüber hinaus berücksichtigt das Programm die Latenzwärme der Reaktion, die Oberflächenenergie und die geringe Viskosität von Mantelmaterial als weitere wesentliche Parameter in der Berechnung der Reaktionskinetic. Das Wachstumsverhalten und die fraktale Dimension von errechneten Spinelkörnern ist dabei in guter Übereinstimmung mit Spinelstrukturen aus Hochdruckexperimenten. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wird das Computermodell angewandt, um die Entwicklung der Oberflächenstruktur von Spinelkörnern unter verschiedenen Bedigungen zu eruieren. Die sogenannte ’anticrack theory of faulting’, die den katastrophalen Verlauf der Olivine→Spinel Umwandlung in olivinhaltigem Material unter differentieller Spannung durch Spannungskonzentrationen erklärt, wurde anhand des Computermodells untersucht. Der entsprechende Mechanismus konnte dabei nicht bestätigt werden. Stattdessen können Oberflächenstrukturen, die Ähnlichkeiten zu Anticracks aufweisen, durch Unreinheiten des Materials erklärt werden (Kap. 4). Eine Reihe von Simulationen wurde der Herleitung der wichtigsten Kontrollparameter der Reaktion in monomineralischem Olivin gewidmet (Kap. 5 and Kap. 6). Als wichtigste Einflüsse auf die Kornform von Spinel stellten sich dabei die Hauptnormalspannungen auf dem System sowie Heterogenitäten im Wirtsminerals und die Viskosität heraus. Im weiteren Verlauf wurden die Nukleierung und das Wachstum von Spinel in polymineralischen Mineralparagenesen untersucht (Kap. 7). Die Reaktionsgeschwindigkeit der Olivine→Spinel Umwandlung und die Entwicklung von Spinelnetzwerken und Clustern wird durch die Gegenwart nicht-reaktiver Minerale wie Granat oder Pyroxen erheblich beschleunigt. Die Bildung von Spinelnetzwerken hat das Potential, die mechanischen Eigenschaften von Mantelgestein erheblich zu beeinflussen, sei es durch die Bildung potentieller Scherzonen oder durch Gerüstbildung. Dieser Lokalisierungprozess des Spinelwachstums in Mantelgesteinen kann daher ein neues Erklärungsmuster für Tiefbeben darstellen.