Extending the Lincoln–Petersen estimator for multiple identifications in one source

The Lincoln–Petersen estimator is one of the most popular estimators used in capture–recapture studies. It was developed for a sampling situation in which two sources independently identify members of a target population. For each of the two sources, it is determined if a unit of the target population is identified or not. This leads to a 2 × 2 table with frequencies f11, f10, f01, f00 indicating the number of units identified by both sources, by the first but not the second source, by the second but not the first source and not identified by any of the two sources, respectively. However, f00 is unobserved so that the 2 × 2 table is incomplete and the Lincoln–Petersen estimator provides an estimate for f00. In this paper, we consider a generalization of this situation for which one source provides not only a binary identification outcome but also a count outcome of how many times a unit has been identified. Using a truncated Poisson count model, truncating multiple identifications larger than two, we propose a maximum likelihood estimator of the Poisson parameter and, ultimately, of the population size. This estimator shows benefits, in comparison with Lincoln–Petersen’s, in terms of bias and efficiency. It is possible to test the homogeneity assumption that is not testable in the Lincoln–Petersen framework. The approach is applied to surveillance data on syphilis from Izmir, Turkey.

Vehicle-driver communication using off-the-shelf transceivers

Almost all modern cars can be controlled remotely using a personal communicator (keyfob). However, the degree of interaction between currently available personal communicators and cars is very limited. The communication link is unidirectional and the communication range is limited to a few dozen meters. However, there are many interesting applications that could be supported if a keyfob would be able to support energy efficient bidirectional longer range communication. In this paper we investigate off-the-shelf transceivers in terms of their usability for bidirectional longer range communication. Our evaluation results show that existing transceivers can generally support the required communication ranges but that links tend to be very unreliable. This high unreliability must be handled in an energy efficient way by the keyfob to car communication protocol in order to make off-the-shelf transceivers a viable solution.

Analysis of wave phenomena in a morphogenetic mechanochemical model and an application to post-fertilization waves on eggs

Wave solutions to a mechanochemical model for cytoskeletal activity are studied and the results applied to the waves of chemical and mechanical activity that sweep over an egg shortly after fertilization. The model takes into account the calcium-controlled presence of actively contractile units in the cytoplasm, and consists of a viscoelastic force equilibrium equation and a conservation equation for calcium. Using piecewise linear caricatures, we obtain analytic solutions for travelling waves on a strip and demonstrate uiat the full nonlinear system behaves as predicted by the analytic solutions. The equations are solved on a sphere and the numerical results are similar to the analytic solutions. We indicate how the speed of the waves can be used as a diagnostic tool with which the chemical reactivity of the egg surface can be measured.

Estimation after subpopulation selection in adaptive seamless trials

During the development of new therapies, it is not uncommon to test whether a new treatment works better than the existing treatment for all patients who suffer from a condition (full population) or for a subset of the full population (subpopulation). One approach that may be used for this objective is to have two separate trials, where in the first trial, data are collected to determine if the new treatment benefits the full population or the subpopulation. The second trial is a confirmatory trial to test the new treatment in the population selected in the first trial. In this paper, we consider the more efficient two-stage adaptive seamless designs (ASDs), where in stage 1, data are collected to select the population to test in stage 2. In stage 2, additional data are collected to perform confirmatory analysis for the selected population. Unlike the approach that uses two separate trials, for ASDs, stage 1 data are also used in the confirmatory analysis. Although ASDs are efficient, using stage 1 data both for selection and confirmatory analysis introduces selection bias and consequently statistical challenges in making inference. We will focus on point estimation for such trials. In this paper, we describe the extent of bias for estimators that ignore multiple hypotheses and selecting the population that is most likely to give positive trial results based on observed stage 1 data. We then derive conditionally unbiased estimators and examine their mean squared errors for different scenarios.

Flexible selection of a single treatment incorporating short-term endpoint information in a phase II/III clinical trial

Seamless phase II/III clinical trials in which an experimental treatment is selected at an interim analysis have been the focus of much recent research interest. Many of the methods proposed are based on the group sequential approach. This paper considers designs of this type in which the treatment selection can be based on short-term endpoint information for more patients than have primary endpoint data available. We show that in such a case, the familywise type I error rate may be inflated if previously proposed group sequential methods are used and the treatment selection rule is not specified in advance. A method is proposed to avoid this inflation by considering the treatment selection that maximises the conditional error given the data available at the interim analysis. A simulation study is reported that illustrates the type I error rate inflation and compares the power of the new approach with two other methods: a combination testing approach and a group sequential method that does not use the short-term endpoint data, both of which also strongly control the type I error rate. The new method is also illustrated through application to a study in Alzheimer's disease. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Two Faces of AIDS in Hong Kong: Culture and the Construction of the `AIDS Celebrity'

Since the first reported case of HIV infection in Hong Kong in 1985, only two HIV-positive individuals in the territory have voluntarily made public their seropositivity: a British dentist named Mike Sinclair, who disclosed his condition to the media in 1992 and died in 1995, and J.J. Chan, a local Chinese disc-jockey, who came forward in 1995 and died just a few months later. When they made their revelations, both became instant media personalities and were invited by the Hong Kong Government to act as spokespeople for AIDS awareness and prevention. Mike Sinclair worked as an education officer for the Hong Kong AIDS Foundation, and J.J. Chan appeared in Government television commercials about AIDS. This article explores how the public identities of these two figures were constructed in the cultural context of Hong Kong where both Eastern and Western values exist side by side and interact. It argues that the construction of `AIDS celebrities' is a kind of `identity project' negotiated among the players involved: the media, the Government, the public, and the person with AIDS (PWA) himself, each bringing to the construction their own `theories' regarding the self and communication. When the players in the construction hold shared assumptions about the nature of the self and the role of communication in enacting it, harmonious discourses arise, but when cultural models among the players differ, contradictory or ambiguous constructions result. The effect of culture on the way `AIDS celebrities' are constructed has implications for the way societies view the issue of AIDS and treat those who have it. It also helps reveal possible sites of difficulty when individuals of different cultures communicate about the issue.

In vitro osteogenesis on fluorcanasite glass-ceramic with three different chemical compositions

This study aimed at investigating in vitro osteogenesis on three fluorcanasite glass-ceramic compositions with different solubilities (K3, K5, and K8). Osteoblastic cells were obtained from human alveolar bone fragments and cultured under standard osteogenic condition until subconfluence. First passage cells were cultured on K3, K5, and K8 and on Bioglass (R) 45S5 (45S5-control). Cell adhesion was evaluated at 24 h. For proliferation and viability, cells were cultured for 1, 4, and 10 days. Total protein content and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity were measured at 7, 14, and 21 days. Cultures were stained with Alizarin red at 21 days, for detection of mineralized matrix. Data were compared by ANOVA followed by Duncan`s test. Cell adhesion, cell proliferation, viability, total protein content, and ALP activity were not affected by fluorcanasite glass-ceramic composition and solubility. Bone-like formation was similar on all fluorcanasite-glass ceramics and was reduced compared to 45S5. The changes in the chemical composition and consequently solubility of the fluorcanasite glass-ceramics tested here did not significantly alter the in vitro osteogenesis. Further modifications of the chemical composition of the fluorcanasite glass-ceramic would be required to improve bone response, making this biomaterial a good candidate to be employed as a bone substitute.

Prevalence and nonrandom distribution of exonic mutations in interferon regulatory factor 6 in 307 families with Van der Woude syndrome and 37 families with popliteal pterygium syndrome

Purpose: Interferon regulatory factor 6 encodes a member of the IRF family of transcription factors. Mutations in interferon regulatory factor 6 cause Van der Woude and popliteal pterygium syndrome, two related orofacial clefting disorders. Here, we compared and contrasted the frequency and distribution of exonic Mutations in interferon regulatory factor 6 between two large geographically distinct collections of families with Van der Woude and between one collection of families with popliteal pterygium syndrome. Methods: We performed direct sequence analysis of interferon regulatory factor 6 exons oil samples from three collections, two with Van der Woude and one with popliteal pterygium syndrome. Results: We identified mutations in interferon regulatory factor 6 exons in 68% of families in both Van der Woude collections and in 97% of families with popliteal pterygium syndrome. In sum, 106 novel disease-causing variants were found. The distribution of mutations in the interferon regulatory factor 6 exons in each collection was not random; exons 3, 4, 7, and 9 accounted for 80%. In the Van der Woude collections, the mutations were evenly divided between protein truncation and missense, whereas most mutations identified in the popliteal pterygium syndrome collection were missense. Further, the missense mutations associated with popliteal pterygium syndrome were localized significantly to exon 4, at residues that are predicted to bind directly to DNA. Conclusion: The nonrandom distribution of mutations in the interferon regulatory factor 6 exons suggests a two-tier approach for efficient mutation screens for interferon regulatory factor 6. The type and distribution of mutations are consistent with the hypothesis that Van der Woude is caused by haploinsufficiency of interferon regulatory factor 6. Oil the other hand, the distribution of popliteal pterygium syndrome-associated mutations suggests a different, though not mutually exclusive, effect oil interferon regulatory factor 6 function. Genet Med 2009:11(4):241-247.

X-ray spectroscopy applied to radiation shielding calculation in mammography

The protective shielding design of a mammography facility requires the knowledge of the scattered radiation by the patient and image receptor components. The shape and intensity of secondary x-ray beams depend on the kVp applied to the x-ray tube, target/filter combination, primary x-ray field size, and scattering angle. Currently, shielding calculations for mammography facilities are performed based on scatter fraction data for Mo/Mo target/filter, even though modern mammography equipment is designed with different anode/filter combinations. In this work we present scatter fraction data evaluated based on the x-ray spectra produced by a Mo/Mo, Mo/Rh and W/Rh target/filter, for 25, 30 and 35 kV tube voltages and scattering angles between 30 and 165 degrees. Three mammography phantoms were irradiated and the scattered radiation was measured with a CdZnTe detector. The primary x-ray spectra were computed with a semiempirical model based on the air kerma and HVL measured with an ionization chamber. The results point out that the scatter fraction values are higher for W/Rh than for Mo/Mo and Mo/Rh, although the primary and scattered air kerma are lower for W/Rh than for Mo/Mo and Mo/Rh target/filter combinations. The scatter fractions computed in this work were applied in a shielding design calculation in order to evaluate shielding requirements for each of these target/filter combinations. Besides, shielding requirements have been evaluated converting the scattered air kerma from mGy/week to mSv/week adopting initially a conversion coefficient from air kerma to effective dose as 1 Sv/Gy and then a mean conversion coefficient specific for the x-ray beam considered. Results show that the thickest barrier should be provided for Mo/Mo target/filter combination. They also point out that the use of the conversion coefficient from air kerma to effective dose as 1 Sv/Gy is conservatively high in the mammography energy range and overestimate the barrier thickness. (c) 2008 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Hypothesis testing in an errors-in-variables model with heteroscedastic measurement errors

In many epidemiological studies it is common to resort to regression models relating incidence of a disease and its risk factors. The main goal of this paper is to consider inference on such models with error-prone observations and variances of the measurement errors changing across observations. We suppose that the observations follow a bivariate normal distribution and the measurement errors are normally distributed. Aggregate data allow the estimation of the error variances. Maximum likelihood estimates are computed numerically via the EM algorithm. Consistent estimation of the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimators is also discussed. Test statistics are proposed for testing hypotheses of interest. Further, we implement a simple graphical device that enables an assessment of the model`s goodness of fit. Results of simulations concerning the properties of the test statistics are reported. The approach is illustrated with data from the WHO MONICA Project on cardiovascular disease. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Implants of polyanionic collagen matrix in bone defects of ovariectomized rats

In recent years, there has been a great interest in the development of biomaterials that could be used in the repair of bone defects. Collagen matrix (CM) has the advantage that it can be modified chemically to improve its mechanical properties. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of three-dimensional membranes of native or anionic (submitted to alkaline treatment for 48 or 96 h) collagen matrix on the consolidation of osteoporosis bone fractures resulting from the gonadal hormone alterations caused by ovariectomy in rats subjected to hormone replacement therapy. The animals received the implants 4 months after ovariectomy and were sacrificed 8 weeks after implantation of the membranes into 4-mm wide bone defects created in the distal third of the femur with a surgical bur. Macroscopic analysis revealed the absence of pathological alterations in the implanted areas, suggesting that the material was biocompatible. Microscopic analysis showed a lower amount of bone ingrowth in the areas receiving the native membrane compared to the bone defects filled with the anionic membranes. In ovariectomized animals receiving anionic membranes, a delay in bone regeneration was observed mainly in animals not subjected to hormone replacement therapy. We conclude that anionic membranes treated with alkaline solution for 48 and 96 h presented better results in terms of bone ingrowth.

Citizens and Contemporary Science Ways to dialogue in science centre contexts.

The current paper presents a study conducted at At-Bristol Science Centre, UK. It is a front-end evaluation for the “Live Science Zone” at At-Bristol, which will be built during the autumn of 2004. It will provide a facility for programmed events and shows, non-programmed investigative activities and the choice of passive or active exploration of current scientific topics. The main aim of the study is to determine characteristics of what kind of techniques to use in the Live Science Zone. The objectives are to explore what has already been done at At-Bristol, and what has been done at other science centres, and to identify successful devices. The secondary aim is mapping what sorts of topics that visitors are actually interested in debating. The methods used in the study are deep qualitative interviews with professionals working within the field of science communication in Europe and North America, and questionnaires answered by visitors to At-Bristol. The results show that there are some gaps between the intentions of the professionals and the opinions of the visitors, in terms of opportunities and willingness for dialogue in science centre activities. The most popular issue was Future and the most popular device was Film.

The Impact of Transnational Conflicts on Christian-Muslim Relations in Nigeria (2001-2006)

This Master’s Thesis examines transnational conflicts and Christian-Muslim relations in Nigeria between the years 2001 and 2006. It focuses on two major transnational conflicts: The September 11, 2001 attacks in the United States and the Danish cartoon controversy of 2005/2006. It discusses the impact of these transnational conflicts on Christian-Muslim relations in Nigeria in the light of the implementation of the Sharia Law in some northern Nigerian states and the improved access to the broadcast media and mobile telephone communication in Nigeria. By underscoring the relationship between transnational conflicts and the local context, this study provides a new perspective for understanding Christian-Muslim relations in Nigeria