Transient state estimation in paleoclimatology using data assimilation

Data assimilation methods used for transient atmospheric state estimations in paleoclimatology such as covariance-based approaches, analogue techniques and nudging are briefly introduced. With applications differing widely, a plurality of approaches appears to be the logical way forward.

Overview of data assimilation methods

We present the data assimilation approach, which provides a framework for combining observations and model simulations of the climate system, and has led to a new field of applications for paleoclimatology. The three subsequent articles explore specific applications in more detail.

A global historical ozone data set and prominent features of stratospheric variability prior to 1979

We present a vertically resolved zonal mean monthly mean global ozone data set spanning the period 1901 to 2007, called HISTOZ.1.0. It is based on a new approach that combines information from an ensemble of chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations with historical total column ozone information. The CCM simulations incorporate important external drivers of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics (in particular solar and volcanic effects, greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, sea surface temperatures, and the quasi-biennial oscillation). The historical total column ozone observations include ground-based measurements from the 1920s onward and satellite observations from 1970 to 1976. An off-line data assimilation approach is used to combine model simulations, observations, and information on the observation error. The period starting in 1979 was used for validation with existing ozone data sets and therefore only ground-based measurements were assimilated. Results demonstrate considerable skill from the CCM simulations alone. Assimilating observations provides additional skill for total column ozone. With respect to the vertical ozone distribution, assimilating observations increases on average the correlation with a reference data set, but does not decrease the mean squared error. Analyses of HISTOZ.1.0 with respect to the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the 11 yr solar cycle on stratospheric ozone from 1934 to 1979 qualitatively confirm previous studies that focussed on the post-1979 period. The ENSO signature exhibits a much clearer imprint of a change in strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation compared to the post-1979 period. The imprint of the 11 yr solar cycle is slightly weaker in the earlier period. Furthermore, the total column ozone increase from the 1950s to around 1970 at northern mid-latitudes is briefly discussed. Indications for contributions of a tropospheric ozone increase, greenhouse gases, and changes in atmospheric circulation are found. Finally, the paper points at several possible future improvements of HISTOZ.1.0.

Investigating the consistency between proxy-based reconstructions and climate models using data assimilation: a mid-Holocene case study

The mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP; thousand years before present) is a key period to study the consistency between model results and proxy-based reconstruction data as it corresponds to a standard test for models and a reasonable number of proxy-based records is available. Taking advantage of this relatively large amount of information, we have compared a compilation of 50 air and sea surface temperature reconstructions with the results of three simulations performed with general circulation models and one carried out with LOVECLIM, a model of intermediate complexity. The conclusions derived from this analysis confirm that models and data agree on the large-scale spatial pattern but the models underestimate the magnitude of some observed changes and that large discrepancies are observed at the local scale. To further investigate the origin of those inconsistencies, we have constrained LOVECLIM to follow the signal recorded by the proxies selected in the compilation using a data-assimilation method based on a particle filter. In one simulation, all the 50 proxy-based records are used while in the other two only the continental or oceanic proxy-based records constrain the model results. As expected, data assimilation leads to improving the consistency between model results and the reconstructions. In particular, this is achieved in a robust way in all the experiments through a strengthening of the westerlies at midlatitude that warms up northern Europe. Furthermore, the comparison of the LOVECLIM simulations with and without data assimilation has also objectively identified 16 proxy-based paleoclimate records whose reconstructed signal is either incompatible with the signal recorded by some other proxy-based records or with model physics.

Corrected kriging update formulae for batch-sequential data assimilation

Recently, a lot of effort has been spent in the efficient computation of kriging predictors when observations are assimilated sequentially. In particular, kriging update formulae enabling significant computational savings were derived. Taking advantage of the previous kriging mean and variance computations helps avoiding a costly matrix inversion when adding one observation to the TeX already available ones. In addition to traditional update formulae taking into account a single new observation, Emery (2009) proposed formulae for the batch-sequential case, i.e. when TeX new observations are simultaneously assimilated. However, the kriging variance and covariance formulae given in Emery (2009) for the batch-sequential case are not correct. In this paper, we fix this issue and establish correct expressions for updated kriging variances and covariances when assimilating observations in parallel. An application in sequential conditional simulation finally shows that coupling update and residual substitution approaches may enable significant speed-ups.

Assimilation of Compliance Software in Highly Regulated Industries: An Empirical Multitheoretical Investigation

In this paper we follow a theory-based approach to study the assimilation of compliance software in highly regulated multinational enterprises. These relatively new software products support the automation of controls which are associated with mandatory compliance requirements. We use institutional and success factor theories to explain the assimilation of compliance software. A framework for analyzing the assimilation of Access Control Systems (ACS), a special type of compliance software, is developed and used to reflect the experiences obtained in four in-depth case studies. One result is that coercive, mimetic, and normative pressures significantly effect ACS assimilation. On the other hand, quality aspects have only a moderate impact at the beginning of the assimilation process, in later phases the impact may increase if performance and improvement objectives become more relevant. In addition, it turns out that position of the enterprises and compatibility heavily influence the assimilation process.

Assimilation and contrast in web product reviews: devaluing the recommendation of a proficient but dissimilar reviewer

When viewing web-consumer reviews consumers encounter the reviewers in an anonymous environment. Although their interactions are only virtual they still exchange social information, e.g. often reviewers refer to their proficiency or consumption motives within the review texts. Do these social information harm the viewers’ perception of the recommended products? The present study addresses this question by applying the paradigm of social comparison (Mussweiler, 2003) to web-consumer reviews. In a laboratory experiment with a student sample (n = 120) we manipulated the perceived similarity between reviewer and viewer and the perceived proficiency of the reviewer. A measurement of achievement goals (Elliott & McGregor, 2001) and average number of hours of study prior to the experiment allowed to introduce the reviewer as high [low] in proficiency and similar [dissimilar] in achievement goals. As predicted, the viewer’s evaluation of the recommended products differed as a function of this social information. Contrasting with the reviewer led to devaluing the products recommended by a proficient but dissimilar reviewer. However, against our prediction social comparison with the reviewer did not affect the viewer`s self-evaluation. Whether social information in web-product reviews affects the viewer`s self-evaluation and induces both social comparison processes remains an open question. Future studies aim to address this by manipulating the informational focus of the viewer, rather than the perceived similarity between viewer and reviewer. So far, the present study extends the application of social comparison to consumption environments and contributes to the understanding of the virtual social identity.

Impacts of drought stress on water relations and carbon assimilation in grassland species at different altitudes

Grassland is an important ecosystem type which is not only used agriculturally, but also covers sites which cannot be used for other purposes, e.g. in very steep locations or above timberlines. Prolonged summer droughts in the mid-term future, as are predicted for Central Europe, are expected to have a major impact on such ecosystems. To address this topic, rainfall exclusion via shelters was performed on three grassland sites at different altitudes (393, 982 and 1978 m above sea level) in Switzerland. Diurnal drought treatment effects were studied at each study site on a completely sunny day towards the end of an 8–10 week shelter period. Ecophysiological parameters including gas exchange (An, gs and intrinsic WUE) and chlorophyll a fluorescence (Fv/Fm, ΦPSII and NPQ) were considered for several species. The lowland and the Alpine field site were more strongly affected by soil drought than the pre-Alpine site. At all sites, grasses showed different patterns of reductions in stomatal conductance under soil drought compared to legumes and forbs. In addition, grasses were significantly more affected by reductions in assimilation rates at all sites. Time courses of reductions in assimilation rates relative to controls differed between species at the Alpine site, as some species showed reduced assimilation rates at this site in the early morning. Thus, similar rainfall exclusion treatments can trigger different reactions in various species at different sites, which might not become obvious during mere midday measurements. Overall, results suggest strong impacts of prolonged summer drought on grassland net photosynthesis especially at the Alpine site and, within sites, for grasses

Die Assimilation der Juden

von Berisch Goldenberg

Assimilation

par L. K. Amitai [d.i. Lehman Kahn]

Assimilation oder Nationaljudenthum?

Von S. Adler

La problème juif : la renaissance de l'antisémitisme, l'exclusivisme juif, le judaisme et l'esprit de révolte, le judaisme et le puritanisme, assimilation ou nationalisme

par Georges Batault

Die Tragödie der Assimilation

von Max Nordau. Mit e. Vorw. d. Hrsg. Davis Erdtracht