Três ensaios sobre política monetária e crédito

In the first essay, "Determinants of Credit Expansion in Brazil", analyzes the determinants of credit using an extensive bank level panel dataset. Brazilian economy has experienced a major boost in leverage in the first decade of 2000 as a result of a set factors ranging from macroeconomic stability to the abundant liquidity in international financial markets before 2008 and a set of deliberate decisions taken by President Lula's to expand credit, boost consumption and gain political support from the lower social strata. As relevant conclusions to our investigation we verify that: credit expansion relied on the reduction of the monetary policy rate, international financial markets are an important source of funds, payroll-guaranteed credit and investment grade status affected positively credit supply. We were not able to confirm the importance of financial inclusion efforts. The importance of financial sector sanity indicators of credit conditions cannot be underestimated. These results raise questions over the sustainability of this expansion process and financial stability in the future. The second essay, “Public Credit, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability”, discusses the role of public credit. The supply of public credit in Brazil has successfully served to relaunch the economy after the Lehman-Brothers demise. It was later transformed into a driver for economic growth as well as a regulation device to force private banks to reduce interest rates. We argue that the use of public funds to finance economic growth has three important drawbacks: it generates inflation, induces higher loan rates and may induce financial instability. An additional effect is the prevention of market credit solutions. This study contributes to the understanding of the costs and benefits of credit as a fiscal policy tool. The third essay, “Bayesian Forecasting of Interest Rates: Do Priors Matter?”, discusses the choice of priors when forecasting short-term interest rates. Central Banks that commit to an Inflation Target monetary regime are bound to respond to inflation expectation spikes and product hiatus widening in a clear and transparent way by abiding to a Taylor rule. There are various reports of central banks being more responsive to inflationary than to deflationary shocks rendering the monetary policy response to be indeed non-linear. Besides that there is no guarantee that coefficients remain stable during time. Central Banks may switch to a dual target regime to consider deviations from inflation and the output gap. The estimation of a Taylor rule may therefore have to consider a non-linear model with time varying parameters. This paper uses Bayesian forecasting methods to predict short-term interest rates. We take two different approaches: from a theoretic perspective we focus on an augmented version of the Taylor rule and include the Real Exchange Rate, the Credit-to-GDP and the Net Public Debt-to-GDP ratios. We also take an ”atheoretic” approach based on the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure to model short-term interest. The selection of priors is particularly relevant for predictive accuracy yet, ideally, forecasting models should require as little a priori expert insight as possible. We present recent developments in prior selection, in particular we propose the use of hierarchical hyper-g priors for better forecasting in a framework that can be easily extended to other key macroeconomic indicators.

Estudo empírico do comportamento dos depósitos das instituições financeiras brasileiras durante a crise de 2008

A motivação do trabalho surgiu dos efeitos causados pela crise imobiliária nos Estados Unidos em 2008, sendo a quebra do banco de investimento “Lehman Brothers” o estopim para uma série de eventos. No Brasil, os efeitos foram diversos, o presente trabalho se aprofundou nos efeitos sobre as captações, analisando se houve uma corrida bancária dos pequenos e médios bancos para os grandes. Este estudo foi feito por meio da análise de quebra estrutural baseada nos testes OLS Cusum introduzido por Ploberger e Kramer (1992) e Teste F por Chow (1960), bem como por meio da análise de dados em painel, utilizando as metodologias de análise de cluster e o modelo de efeitos fixos. De um modo geral, os nossos resultados demonstram que efetivamente ocorreu uma transferência massiva de recursos dos pequenos e médios bancos para os grandes.

Financial governance: the Brazilian experience on prudential regulation and its impacts on the effects of the 2008 financial crisis

The Brazilian economy was severely hit by the 2008 crisis. In the beginning of the crisis, the vast majorities of the economic agents and authorities thought that Brazil could face some sort of decoupling since some macroeconomic fundamentals were very good. What we saw, however, was that the Brazilian economy was not decoupled, and expectations faced a huge deterioration soon after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 15th. Two aspects regarding the impact of crisis in Brazil, however, deserve a great deal of attention: (a) although deep, the impact did not last for a long time. Actually, the GDP growth experienced a good recovery in the second quarter of 2009, showing that the health of the Brazilian economy was good; (b) the Brazilian banking system performed very well during the crisis, although we cannot say the system was not in danger in the worst time of the crisis. In spite of the confidence crisis faced by the banking system 1, it showed a great deal of resilience. In this aspect, we argue that the restructure faced by the banking system in the aftermath of the Real Plan, as well as the development of a solid supervision regulation helped a lot the system to avoid the systemic crisis that was an open possibility to the Brazilian banking system in the end of 2008. These notes, thus, discusse why the Brazilian banking system performed pretty well in the 2008 financial crisis and how the Brazilian banking (and prudential) regulation can be taken as responsible for this good performance. More specifically, the paper back to the middle of the 1990s, when the Real Plan was implemented, in order to understand the role played by the restructuring of the Brazilian financial system in helping to pave the way to the great resilience experienced by the Brazilian banking system during the 2008 crisis. More specifically, the prudential regulation that was implemented in Brazil in the aftermath of the Real Plan seems to play a decisive role in the resilience of the system nowadays.

A grande recessão: oportunidade para o Brasil alcançar os países desenvolvidos

A crise financeira do subprime e o colapso do sistema financeiro, com a quebra do Lehman Brothers no terceiro trimestre de 2008, desencadeou um fenômeno com múltiplas dimensões e distinto da crise financeira em si, chamado Grande Recessão. Nesse cenário, as economias dos países centrais saem da normalidade e passam a ser regidas por comportamentos induzidos pela incerteza, medo, pânico etc., nos quais prevalece a lógica da desalavancagem, da balance sheet recession, da aversão ao risco e da demanda de ativos com sinais trocados, gerando instabilidades persistentes nesses mercados. Do ponto de vista político e social, o consenso desaparece e o sistema econômico, suas instituições e a ideologia que as justifica tornam-se disfuncionais, exigindo constante intervenção do Estado. O paradigma liberalizante que vigorava desde 1980 entra em crise e passa a ser questionado pelos fatos e pela crescente insatisfação da população. Como entender o que acontecerá com a economia global nesse contexto? Quais as consequências para o Brasil? A Grande Recessão representa uma ameaça ou uma oportunidade para nós? Neste texto, vamos utilizar paralelos históricos recorrendo a experiências similares, como a Grande Depressão de 1890 e a Grande Depressão de 1930. Com base nesses paralelos históricos, vamos fazer algumas conjecturas e levantar hipóteses sobre o que poderá acontecer nos próximos anos no Brasil.

On invariant Rings of Sylow subgroups of finite classical groups

In this thesis we study the invariant rings for the Sylow p-subgroups of the nite classical groups. We have successfully constructed presentations for the invariant rings for the Sylow p-subgroups of the unitary groups GU(3; Fq2) and GU(4; Fq2 ), the symplectic group Sp(4; Fq) and the orthogonal group O+(4; Fq) with q odd. In all cases, we obtained a minimal generating set which is also a SAGBI basis. Moreover, we computed the relations among the generators and showed that the invariant ring for these groups are a complete intersection. This shows that, even though the invariant rings of the Sylow p-subgroups of the general linear group are polynomial, the same is not true for Sylow p-subgroups of general classical groups. We also constructed the generators for the invariant elds for the Sylow p-subgroups of GU(n; Fq2 ), Sp(2n; Fq), O+(2n; Fq), O-(2n + 2; Fq) and O(2n + 1; Fq), for every n and q. This is an important step in order to obtain the generators and relations for the invariant rings of all these groups.

A travessia do trágico no romance d A Pedra do Reino de Ariano Suassuna

The present work seeks to investigate and discuss about the Greek Tragedy s elements at Ariano Suassuna s romance called τ Romance d A Pedra do Reino e o Principe do Sangue do Vai e Volta, connecting it directly to mythic, epic, poetic, and romances aspects at his work. The romance has as the protagonist the backcountry Pedro Dinis Quaderna. Quaderna is a character which is simultaneously popular, elitist, enigmatic, naive, and an intellectual man that has a great erudition. Quaderna is a character that seeks, by using the Literature, to reestablish a Brazilian backcountry kingdom which he s supposedly the king, always trying to empathizes the Brazilian northeast region like if it was a nation apart. By impressing a national personality to the Brazilian northeast , Quaderna tries to become an epic poet just like Homer, denoting a strong influence of the Epopee. Quaderna, just like many characters of Greek Tragedy, has at his family past time a lot of tragic circumstances. These facts that ocurred to his relativos like the your uncle Pedro Sebastião Garcia Barreto s death, the disappearement of his cousin Sinésio, and the contest between the brothers Arésio and Sinésio, and others aspects, remind us remarkable influences, beyond the Epopee, of the Greek Tragedy. By reading the romance we may notice many similarities between Quaderna s trajectory and Greek Tragedy heroes. To make an analysis about the tragic aspects at Suassuna s work, we need to dialogue with many theoreticals that have written about the tragic and comparate with many parts of Suassuna s with classics character s texts of Greek Tragedy. At the following chapters we seek to provide romance s elementaries notions, as well as tragic notions, the dialogue with mythics aspects and the tragic and epic aplicability at Suassuna s work

Folha de São Paulo: o diário oficial do grande irmão

This project wants to analyze the newspaper like a collective organic intellectual thing, and its action like a conservator integral journalism, it makes it looks like a politics block. In this case, the newspaper inserts itself in a process to support the dominated fundamental class. In the same time, it searches to disqualify politically, using the news and the opinion, the sprouting of against-hegemony even untimely and distant in the historical time. Facing this proposal we take as study object the FOLHA DE S. PAULO, nowadays the most representative agency of the great conservative press. Our theoretical reference takes as base the Gramsci organic intellectual formularizations, hegemony, position´s war, integral journalism and private device of hegemony. We allow ourselves, in a subsidiary way to the Gramsci basement, using the novel 1984 written by George Orwell, as a method to explicit, in a comparative way, the manipulation of the reality by the newspaper in its activity of collective organic intellectual. The ideology is the heuristic connection point to make convergence between reality and fiction. For the intended evidences we develop analysis of the daily covering about two great accidents occurred in 2007: The landslide of part of the workmanships of the tunnel of the Companhia do Metropolitano de São Paulo-Metrô (line yellow 4). And the flying disaster involving the airbus of Transportes Aéreos Meridionais-TAM, flight 3054, also in that state. In the first accident we find endorsement of the newspaper to the São Paulo´s government, in the person of the politician actor José Serra (PSDB), representative of the conservative forces and responsible for the workmanships of the Subway, to who it tried to distance politically of the fact. In the second event, the opposition to the politician actor Luis Inácio Luis Lula da Silva and his politics block, the PT, as a possibility against-hegemonic contested, being the mentioned actor appointed as responsible for the occurrence. However, the newspaper says that it is independent and direct, and this direct action comes from the environment. In this environment, the diversity of conceptions of world would guide the publishing work, making the FOLHA DE S. PAULO to take it as a reference for the intended objective, hiding the politics block militancy

Ideal Mariano e docência: a identidade feminina da Proposta Educativa Marista

In the teaching history course it s found the female teacher entering, reflecting significantly in the continuous process of her identity redefinitions and reconstruction. This entering brings, even in a silent and not explicit way, the confluence of gender identity to professional identity, in which are present the relations of the proper to female. In the mastership case, these relations are found imbricated in the teaching identity construction and in the translation of this profession as female, based in Virgin Mary, through Mariano ideal diffused by the catholic church. Therefore there is a lanck in educational historiography towards the register of female teachers presence, mainly in male religious institute, the reason of this study, in which we seek to investigate: how to explain that a female identity can give support to a highly male educational project? What relations can we establish between this female identity and the entering of female teachers in Maristas Province Schools of North Brazil? We performed a bibliographic research in Maristas Schools Libraries, of Marista historial, in Recife, of Pontificia Universidade Católica do Paraná (Catholic University), in Curitiba-PR. We searched for support in studies about pedagogy history, of Marista Institute, Catholic Church, Brasilian Education and of Women; Mariologic studies, the referring to Marista Educational Proposal, to feminization and to teaching identity; and feminist theology productions. The empirical research included 10 schools from referred province and Marista Schools from Lisbon Portugal. Through semi-estructured interviews, we interviewed pioneer female teachers, Marista former Brothers and Brothers from those schools, due to their presence and action within the study period and for the concern to save their memories about the theme. The study reveals the particularities of Mariano ideal as female model and teaching, and her presence in Marista Educational Proposal. This study, in a historical approach, aims to contribute to give visibility to the woman in history and teaching construction in Brazil, mainly in religious institutions from male origin

Sugarcane response to two biotic stressors: Diatraea saccharalis and Mahanarva fimbriolata

In a field experiment in 2007/08 in São Paulo state, Brazil cane was exposed to sugarcane borer (Diatraea saccharalis) and spittlebug (Mahanarva fimbriolata) alone or in combination. Plots comprised 2 m(2) caged and uncaged sugarcane stalks. Compared with the caged (un-infested) control, spittlebug nymphs decreased cane yield by 17.6%, whereas infestation from spittlebug nymphs + sugarcane borer combined and sugarcane borer alone, decreased cane yields by 15.5% and 6.9%, respectively. There was no significant difference among the treatments in levels of soluble solids and cane sucrose content.

Literatura e educação: o bullying nos contos de fada, uma discussão possível

This study investigates how the reading of fairy tales can be an instrument for reflection on the bullying phenomenon in the live of students. Its relevance is present the work with literature as an alternative to facilitate the understanding of children and young people about this violence practice, on the basis of the discussion moments, mediated in the classroom. Methodologically based in the principles of qualitative investigation, setting itself as a bibliographic research, and linked to the content analysis in order to make inferences and construct interpretations from the study of tales that encourage discussion and reflection about the bullying theme. In this work were selected the following stories: Cinderella 1812) and a One-eye, Two-eyes, Three-eyes (1812) of Grimm Brothers; John-Slapstick (1837), The Storks (1838), and The Ugly Duckling (1844) of Andersen, to make possible a more explicit interface between literature and the bullying theme, providing fertile material for moments of debate. Was taken as the theoretical reference studies of Eco (2003), Jouve (2002), Zilberman (2003, 2004), Lajolo (2001), Rabbit (2008), Bettelheim (2007), Amarilha (2004), Held (1980), Beaudoin and Taylor (2006), Fante and Stone (2008), Middelton-Moz and Zawadski (2007), Olweus (2006), Jares (2002, 2006), Beane (2010), La Taille (2006, 2009) and Piaget (1994). The analysis demonstrated that the characteristics inherent in the literature allow the realization of readings in which the bullying theme can be discussed among students, to contribute positively in the education of children and young people and reflect about violence. This is possible way, especially because of the involvement promoted by the reading of literary texts, allowing that students see, in fiction, possibilities of change

Vivendo e aprendendo no ambiente hospitalar: Percepções de crianças sobre a doença

This study focuses on the child within the hospital environment. Its purpose is to describe children s perceptions of their illness and time in hospital and to identify their main hardships during treatment. This study has a qualitative nature and is theoretically and methodologically supported by the creative and sensitive method developed by Cabral (1998), studies by Piaget, Vygotsky and Wallon on child development, and studies conducted by Pinto (2005), Collet (2004), Chiattone (2003), Silva (2002), Lima et.al (1999) on in-patient children. For this study, 13 children between the ages of 7 and 12 at a public hospital institution specialized in child care in the city of Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, were interviewed. As a criterion for taking part in this study the children would have to have been in hospital for over three days and be fully capable of physically and emotionally interacting with the researcher at the time the interview took place. Analysis drew on the study of the empirical material made up of interviews and a field diary where notes had been entered for the children s reactions, expressions and gestures. Results show that there is some understanding, on the part of these children, of their illness, with their parents as the main informants. They accept being in hospital because they need treatment, but they realize that life becomes different especially on account of the constraints resulting from the illness and the hospital itself. The main hardships during treatment are: lack of recreational activities in the evenings and on the weekends within the hospital environment; absence of family members, especially brothers and sisters; and lack of explanation on the part of health professionals regarding some procedures as these are being carried out. Our conclusion is that children perceive illness and the hospital environment as something that changes the rhythm of their lives bringing on them perturbations, fears and anxieties. Hence, we suggest that professionals working with in-patient children should be especially prepared to deal with these children and their parents, aiming at bringing down fears and anguishes, clear their doubts and, in addition, advise the parents in respect of their children s treatment while in hospital and after hospital discharge. The hospital environment should also be cheerful and colorful and have a toy room under the coordination of persons especially prepared for that purpose

The Genome Sequence of Taurine Cattle: A Window to Ruminant Biology and Evolution

To understand the biology and evolution of ruminants, the cattle genome was sequenced to about sevenfold coverage. The cattle genome contains a minimum of 22,000 genes, with a core set of 14,345 orthologs shared among seven mammalian species of which 1217 are absent or undetected in noneutherian (marsupial or monotreme) genomes. Cattle-specific evolutionary breakpoint regions in chromosomes have a higher density of segmental duplications, enrichment of repetitive elements, and species-specific variations in genes associated with lactation and immune responsiveness. Genes involved in metabolism are generally highly conserved, although five metabolic genes are deleted or extensively diverged from their human orthologs. The cattle genome sequence thus provides a resource for understanding mammalian evolution and accelerating livestock genetic improvement for milk and meat production.

Classic and molecular study of Giardia duodenalis in children from a daycare center in the region of Presidente Prudente, São Paulo, Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Padrões cariotípicos em tetraodontiformes (Osteichthypes) :redução genômica e mecanismos de diversificação

The Tetraodontiformes order is composed for about 400 species of fish, distributed in ten families, with circuntropical distribution. The morphologic diversity of each family reflects in, part, the different levels of specialization. This group represents an ancestry after-Perciformes and constitutes the last branch of the diffusion of the Teleósteos, occupying a position of prominence. The phylogenetics relationships of the Tetraodontiformes exist diverse works examining and, in all, these families are recognized as groups brothers, being Diodontidae next to Tetraodontidae and Balistidae next to Monacanthidae. Although it possesss a representative number of species, the works involving of the families Balistidae and Monacanthidae are few exemplary, especially species of oceanic islands. In this work cytogenetic studies in five species had been analyzed Cantherhines macrocerus, Cantherhines pullus (Monacanthidae), Melichthys niger (Balistidae), Sphoeroides testudíneus (Tetraodontidae) and Chilomycterus antennatus (Diodontidae); through conventional coloration, Ag-NORs and C banding. Ahead of the different karyological trends of evolution presented by the Tetraodontiformes, the present work also searched to verify the relation existence enters the total size of the chromosomes with the amount of DNA in these groups of Tetraodontiformes. For such, they had been correlated the total size of the chromosomes of these species, with values of content of available DNA in literature. The cytogenetics analyses for the species C.macrocerusJ C.pullus (Monacanthidae) and M.niger (Balistidae), had disclosed 40 chromosomes, all acrocentrics. All possess only one pair of NORs and pericentromeric heterochromatin. For S.testudíneus the found dyploid number was equal 2n=46, with NF=78 (16m+18sm+8st+4a), while that for C.antennatus it possesss 2n=50, with NF=76 (4m+22st+24a). Both species possess simple NORs and pericentromeric heterochromatin blocks. In M.niger, the presence of positive marking (heterochromatin and NOR) in the secondary constriction in the second chromosomic pair suggesting the occurrence of a rearrangement, possibly a fusing involving these homologous ones, indicating that these events had been important for the establishment of the karyological history of this group. A maintenance of the chromosomic constancy found in the populations of C.macrocerus (Monacanthidae) and S.testudineus (Tetraodontidae) perhaps if must for the aiding of the gene flow through oceanic chains. These data contrast with the differentiated kinds of chromosomes of C.antennatus between the Northeast coast and Southeastern, suggesting that the ecological standards of each species, added to the conditions of the marine environment, can be responsible for the karyological delineation of each species. The found characteristics for the species C.macrocerus, C.pullus, M.niger, S.testudineus and C.antennatus add it the available data for other species of Tetraodontiformes. From the data gotten in the present study, it can be inferred that the DNA content possesss direct relation with the total length of the chromosomes

Relações sociais de callithrix jacchus machos: competição ou cooperação?

The group Callithrichidae is characterized by the flexibility in its mating system. This fact generates questions about the mechanisms that Callithrix jacchus males reach the breeding position in a group and how they prevent the subordinates reproduction, since the competition apparently happens with less intensity when compared to the females. Studies have shown the importance of social interactions and kinship among individuals in the distribution of mating opportunities in a group. This work aimed to evaluate if dyads of Callithrix jacchus males acted socially different due to kinship. We observed the agonistic and affiliative behaviours made by the males when associated in dyads (Phase 1) and when these dyads received a female (Phase 2), which was introduced in the pair`s cage for 45 minutes. In the phase 2, we also accounted for the sexual interactions between males and female in each trio. We used 16 males, 8 related (brothers-R) and 8 nonrelated (NR), as well as 8 females. Each phase lasted 4 weeks, with 3 observations/week, during 15 min/male in phase 1 and 2. In the first phase, two pairs of R males had a contested dominance and the other two, just like in the NR males, had an uncontested dominance. The NR dominant males were more aggressive than the subordinates. With the female`s entrance in the cage, all male pairs began to have an uncontested dominance. The NR males aggression frequency rose along with the subordinates` submission. In the R males, the frequency of grooming and physical contact was higher than in the NR males. So, we conclude that the low levels of agonism presented by the R males, along with the higher tolerance shown amongst them, lead us to believe that kinship attenuate the competition among these males