Shifts in species and phylogenetic diversity between sapling and tree communities indicate negative density dependence in a lowland rain forest

1. As trees in a given cohort progress through ontogeny, many individuals die. This risk of mortality is unevenly distributed across species because of many processes such as habitat filtering, interspecific competition and negative density dependence. Here, we predict and test the patterns that such ecological processes should inscribe on both species and phylogenetic diversity as plants recruit from saplings to the canopy. 2. We compared species and phylogenetic diversity of sapling and tree communities at two sites in French Guiana. We surveyed 2084 adult trees in four 1-ha tree plots and 943 saplings in sixteen 16-m2 subplots nested within the tree plots. Species diversity was measured using Fisher's alpha (species richness) and Simpson's index (species evenness). Phylogenetic diversity was measured using Faith's phylogenetic diversity (phylogenetic richness) and Rao's quadratic entropy index (phylogenetic evenness). The phylogenetic diversity indices were inferred using four phylogenetic hypotheses: two based on rbcLa plastid DNA sequences obtained from the inventoried individuals with different branch lengths, a global phylogeny available from the Angiosperm Phylogeny Group, and a combination of both. 3. Taxonomic identification of the saplings was performed by combining morphological and DNA barcoding techniques using three plant DNA barcodes (psbA-trnH, rpoC1 and rbcLa). DNA barcoding enabled us to increase species assignment and to assign unidentified saplings to molecular operational taxonomic units. 4. Species richness was similar between saplings and trees, but in about half of our comparisons, species evenness was higher in trees than in saplings. This suggests that negative density dependence plays an important role during the sapling-to-tree transition. 5. Phylogenetic richness increased between saplings and trees in about half of the comparisons. Phylogenetic evenness increased significantly between saplings and trees in a few cases (4 out of 16) and only with the most resolved phylogeny. These results suggest that negative density dependence operates largely independently of the phylogenetic structure of communities. 6. Synthesis. By contrasting species richness and evenness across size classes, we suggest that negative density dependence drives shifts in composition during the sapling-to-tree transition. In addition, we found little evidence for a change in phylogenetic diversity across age classes, suggesting that the observed patterns are not phylogenetically constrained.

Report of Recommendations to the Iowa Judicial Branch - County Clerks of District Courts, June 30, 2005

Other Audit Reports - Judicial

Pliocene and Pleistocene diversification and multiple refugia in a Eurasian shrew (Crocidura suaveolens group).

We sequenced 998 base pairs (bp) of mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b and 799 bp of nuclear gene BRCA1 in the Lesser white-toothed shrew (Crocidura suaveolens group) over its geographic range from Portugal to Japan. The aims of the study were to identify the main clades within the group and respective refugia resulting from Pleistocene glaciations. Analyses revealed the Asian lesser white-toothed shrew (C. shantungensis) as the basal clade, followed by a major branch of C. suaveolens, subdivided sensu stricto into six clades, which split-up in the Upper Pliocene and Lower Pleistocene (1.9-0.9 Myr). The largest clade, occurring over a huge range from east Europe to Mongolia, shows evidence of population expansion after a bottleneck. West European clades originated from Iberian and Italo-Balkanic refugia. In the Near East, three clades evolved in an apparent hotspot of refugia (west Turkey, south-west and south-east of the Caucasus). Most clades include specimens of different morphotypes and the validity of many taxa in the C. suaveolens group has to be re-evaluated.

Audit report on the Iowa Judicial Branch for the year ended June 30, 2006

Audit report on the Iowa Judicial Branch for the year ended June 30, 2006

Strong minimax lower bounds for learning

Minimax lower bounds for concept learning state, for example, thatfor each sample size $n$ and learning rule $g_n$, there exists a distributionof the observation $X$ and a concept $C$ to be learnt such that the expectederror of $g_n$ is at least a constant times $V/n$, where $V$ is the VC dimensionof the concept class. However, these bounds do not tell anything about therate of decrease of the error for a {\sl fixed} distribution--concept pair.\\In this paper we investigate minimax lower bounds in such a--stronger--sense.We show that for several natural $k$--parameter concept classes, includingthe class of linear halfspaces, the class of balls, the class of polyhedrawith a certain number of faces, and a class of neural networks, for any{\sl sequence} of learning rules $\{g_n\}$, there exists a fixed distributionof $X$ and a fixed concept $C$ such that the expected error is larger thana constant times $k/n$ for {\sl infinitely many n}. We also obtain suchstrong minimax lower bounds for the tail distribution of the probabilityof error, which extend the corresponding minimax lower bounds.

Minimax lower bounds for the two-armed bandit problem

We obtain minimax lower bounds on the regret for the classicaltwo--armed bandit problem. We provide a finite--sample minimax version of the well--known log $n$ asymptotic lower bound of Lai and Robbins. Also, in contrast to the log $n$ asymptotic results on the regret, we show that the minimax regret is achieved by mere random guessing under fairly mild conditions on the set of allowable configurations of the two arms. That is, we show that for {\sl every} allocation rule and for {\sl every} $n$, there is a configuration such that the regret at time $n$ is at least 1 -- $\epsilon$ times the regret of random guessing, where $\epsilon$ is any small positive constant.

Audit report on the Iowa Judicial Branch – County Clerks of District Courts, a part of the State of Iowa, for the year ended June 30, 2006

Audit report on the Iowa Judicial Branch – County Clerks of District Courts, a part of the State of Iowa, for the year ended June 30, 2006

Parallel scheduling of multiclass M/M/m queues: Approximate and heavy-traffic optimization of achievable performance

We address the problem of scheduling a multiclass $M/M/m$ queue with Bernoulli feedback on $m$ parallel servers to minimize time-average linear holding costs. We analyze the performance of a heuristic priority-index rule, which extends Klimov's optimal solution to the single-server case: servers select preemptively customers with larger Klimov indices. We present closed-form suboptimality bounds (approximate optimality) for Klimov's rule, which imply that its suboptimality gap is uniformly bounded above with respect to (i) external arrival rates, as long as they stay within system capacity;and (ii) the number of servers. It follows that its relativesuboptimality gap vanishes in a heavy-traffic limit, as external arrival rates approach system capacity (heavy-traffic optimality). We obtain simpler expressions for the special no-feedback case, where the heuristic reduces to the classical $c \mu$ rule. Our analysis is based on comparing the expected cost of Klimov's ruleto the value of a strong linear programming (LP) relaxation of the system's region of achievable performance of mean queue lengths. In order to obtain this relaxation, we derive and exploit a new set ofwork decomposition laws for the parallel-server system. We further report on the results of a computational study on the quality of the $c \mu$ rule for parallel scheduling.

Compensating wage differentials and voluntary job changes: Evidence from West Germany

Does the labor market place wage premia on jobs that involve physical strain,job, insecurity or bad regulation of hours? This paper derives bounds on themonetary returns to these job disamenities in the West German labor market.We show that in a market with dispersion in both job characteristics andwages, the average wage change of workers who switch jobs voluntarily and optfor consuming more (less) disamenities,provides an upper (lower) bound on themarket return to the disamenity. Using longitudinal information from workersin the German Socio Economic Panel, we estimate an upper bound of 5% and alower bound of 3.5% for the market return to work strain in a job.

Audit report on the City of West Branch, Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2007

Audit report on the City of West Branch, Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2007

Bringing game theory to hypothesis testing: Establishing finite sample bounds on inference

Small sample properties are of fundamental interest when only limited data is avail-able. Exact inference is limited by constraints imposed by speci.c nonrandomizedtests and of course also by lack of more data. These e¤ects can be separated as we propose to evaluate a test by comparing its type II error to the minimal type II error among all tests for the given sample. Game theory is used to establish this minimal type II error, the associated randomized test is characterized as part of a Nash equilibrium of a .ctitious game against nature.We use this method to investigate sequential tests for the di¤erence between twomeans when outcomes are constrained to belong to a given bounded set. Tests ofinequality and of noninferiority are included. We .nd that inference in terms oftype II error based on a balanced sample cannot be improved by sequential sampling or even by observing counter factual evidence providing there is a reasonable gap between the hypotheses.

Relationships between host plant architecture and gall abundance and survival

The plant architecture hypothesis predicts that variation in host plant architecture influences insect herbivore community structure, dynamics and performance. In this study we evaluated the effects of Macairea radula (Melastomataceae) architecture on the abundance of galls induced by a moth (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae). Plant architecture and gall abundance were directly recorded on 58 arbitrarily chosen M. radula host plants in the rainy season of 2006 in an area of Cerrado vegetation, southeastern Brazil. Plant height, dry biomass, number of branches, number of shoots and leaf abundance were used as predicting variables of gall abundance and larval survival. Gall abundance correlated positively with host plant biomass and branch number. Otherwise, no correlation (p > 0.05) was found between gall abundance with shoot number or with the number of leaves/plant. From a total of 124 galls analyzed, 67.7% survived, 14.5% were attacked by parasitoids, while 17.7% died due to unknown causes. Larvae that survived or were parasitized were not influenced by architectural complexity of the host plant. Our results partially corroborate the plant architecture hypothesis, but since parasitism was not related to plant architecture it is argued that bottom-up effects may be more important than top-down effects in controlling the population dynamics of the galling lepidopteran. Because galling insects often decrease plant fitness, the potential of galling insects in selecting for less architectural complex plants is discussed.

Cumulative dominance and heuristic performance in binary multi-attribute choice

Several studies have reported high performance of simple decision heuristics multi-attribute decision making. In this paper, we focus on situations where attributes are binary and analyze the performance of Deterministic-Elimination-By-Aspects (DEBA) and similar decision heuristics. We consider non-increasing weights and two probabilistic models for the attribute values: one where attribute values are independent Bernoulli randomvariables; the other one where they are binary random variables with inter-attribute positive correlations. Using these models, we show that good performance of DEBA is explained by the presence of cumulative as opposed to simple dominance. We therefore introduce the concepts of cumulative dominance compliance and fully cumulative dominance compliance and show that DEBA satisfies those properties. We derive a lower bound with which cumulative dominance compliant heuristics will choose a best alternative and show that, even with many attributes, this is not small. We also derive an upper bound for the expected loss of fully cumulative compliance heuristics and show that this is moderateeven when the number of attributes is large. Both bounds are independent of the values ofthe weights.

Nonparametric bounds on the returns to language skills

This paper applies the theoretical literature on nonparametric bounds ontreatment effects to the estimation of how limited English proficiency (LEP)affects wages and employment opportunities for Hispanic workers in theUnited States. I analyze the identifying power of several weak assumptionson treatment response and selection, and stress the interactions between LEPand education, occupation and immigration status. I show that thecombination of two weak but credible assumptions provides informative upperbounds on the returns to language skills for certain subgroups of thepopulation. Adding age at arrival as a monotone instrumental variable alsoprovides informative lower bounds.

Exact tests for correlation and for the slope in simple linear regressions without making assumptions

We present an exact test for whether two random variables that have known bounds on their support are negatively correlated. The alternative hypothesis is that they are not negatively correlated. No assumptions are made on the underlying distributions. We show by example that the Spearman rank correlation test as the competing exact test of correlation in nonparametric settings rests on an additional assumption on the data generating process without which it is not valid as a test for correlation.We then show how to test for the significance of the slope in a linear regression analysis that invovles a single independent variable and where outcomes of the dependent variable belong to a known bounded set.