CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

Current conditions and outlook: Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2001

Includes bibliography

Current conditions and outlook: Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2002

Foreword This publication provides an assessment of the region's economic performance and economic trends during the first half of 2002 and of its prospects for the remainder of the year within the context of the previous year's performance. An analysis is presented of the main aspects of the regional economy -its external sector, levels of economic activity, inflation, employment, saving and investment, and macroeconomic policy-, accompanied by a statistical appendix containing 13 tables with data series through 2001. The document, which is being published simultaneously in Spanish and English, corresponds to the first chapter of the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2001-2002, issued in Spanish in September and in English later in the year. Wide distribution of this document is intended to serve the purpose previously performed by the Economic Panorama of Latin America, a publication that was issued in September of each year between 1985 and 1996. See also an advance version of the survey of economic developments in English-speaking countries of the Caribbean in 2001 and their prospects in 2002 which will be contained in final, revised form in the Economic Survey 2001-2002.

Current conditions and outlook: Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2002-2003

Includes bibliography

Daños ocasionados por el huracán Joan en Nicaragua: sus efectos sobre el desarrollo económico y las condiciones de vida, y requerimientos para la rehabilitación y reconstrucción: nota de la Secretaría = Damage caused by hurricane Joan in Nicaragua: its effects on economic development and living conditions, and requirements for rehabilitation and reconstruction: note by the Secretariat

Incluye Bibliografía

Daños ocasionados por el huracán Joan en Nicaragua: sus efectos sobre el desarrollo económico y las condiciones de vida, y requerimientos para la rehabilitación y reconstrucción: perfiles de proyecto de rehabilitación y reconstrucción = Damage caused by hurricane Joan in Nicaragua: its effects on economic development and living conditions, and rehabilitation and reconstruction needs: rehabilitation and reconstruction project outlines

Incluye Bibliografía