Global synchrony of an accelerating risein sea surface temperature

The oceans have shown a recent rapid and accelerating rise in temperature with, given the close link between temperature and marine organisms, pronounced effects on ecosystems. Here we describe for the first time a globally synchronous pattern of pulsed short period (�1 year long) emanations of warm sea surface temperature anomalies from tropical seas towards the poles on the shelf/slope with an intensification of the warming after the 1976/1977, 1986/1987 and 1997/1998 El Nin˜os. On the eastern margins of continents the anomalies propagate towards the poles in part by largely baroclinic boundary currents, reinforced by regional atmospheric warming. The processes contributing to the less continuous warm anomalies on western margins are linked to the transfer of warmth from adjacent western boundary currents. These climate induced events show a close parallelism with the timing of ecosystem changes in shelf seas, important for fisheries and ecosystem services, and melting of sea-ice.

Long-term annual primary production in the Ulleung Basin as a biological hot spot in the East/Japan Sea

Although the Ulleung Basin is an important biological hot spot in East/Japan Sea (hereafter the East Sea), very limited knowledge for seasonal and annual variations in the primary productivity exists. In this study, a recent decadal trend of primary production in the Ulleung Basin was analyzed based on MODIS-derived monthly primary production for a better annual production budget. Based on the MODIS-derived primary production, the mean daily primary productivity was 766.8 mg C m-2 d-1 (SD=+/- 196.7 mg C m-2 d-1) and the annual primary productivity was 280.2 g C m-2 yr-1 (SD=+/- 14.9 g C m-2 yr-1) in the Ulleung Basin during the study period. The monthly contributions of primary production were not largely variable among different months, and a relatively small interannual production variability was also observed in the Ulleung Basin, which indicates that the Ulleung Basin is a sustaining biologically productive region called as hot spot in the East Sea. However, a significant recent decline in the annual primary production was observed in the Ulleung Basin after 2006. Although no strong possibilities were found in this study, the current warming sea surface temperature and a negative phase PDO index were suggested for the recent declining primary production. For a better understanding of subsequent effects on marine ecosystems, more intensive interdisciplinary field studies will be required in the Ulleung Basin.

Feeding and overwintering of Antarctic krill across its major habitats: The role of sea ice cover, water depth, and phytoplankton abundance

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) were sampled in contrasting habitats: a seasonally ice-covered deep ocean (Lazarev Sea), ice-free shelves at their northern range (South Georgia) and the Antarctic Peninsula (Bransfield Strait), and shelf and oceanic sites in the Scotia Sea. Across 92 stations, representing a year-round average, the food volume in krill stomachs comprised 71 +/- 29% algae, 17 +/- 21% protozoans, and 12 +/- 25% metazoans. Fatty acid trophic markers showed that copepods were consistently part of krill diet, not a switch food. In open waters, both diatom and copepod consumption increased with phytoplankton abundance. Under sea ice, ingestion of diatoms became rare, whereas feeding on copepods remained constant. During winter, larvae contained high but variable proportions of diatom markers, whereas in postlarvae the role of copepods increased with krill body length. Overwintering differed according to habitat. Krill from South Georgia had lower lipid stores than those from the Bransfield Strait or Lazarev Sea. Feeding effort was much reduced in Lazarev Sea krill, whereas most individuals from the Bransfield Strait and South Georgia contained phytoplankton and seabed detritus in their stomachs. Their retention of essential body reserves indicates that krill experienced most winter hardship in the Lazarev Sea, followed by South Georgia and then Bransfield Strait. This was reflected in the delayed development from juveniles to adults in the Lazarev Sea. Circumpolar comparisons of length frequencies suggest that krill growth conditions are more favorable in the southwest Atlantic than in the Lazarev Sea or off East Antarctica because of longer phytoplankton bloom periods and rewarding access to benthic food.

Long-term iceshelf-covered meiobenthic communities of the Antarctic continental shelf resemble those of the deep sea

Since strong regional warming has led to the disintegration of huge parts of the Larsen A and B ice shelves east of the Antarctic Peninsula in 1995 and 2002, meiofaunal communities covered by ice shelves for thousands of years could be investigated for the first time. Based on a dataset of more than 230,000 individuals, meiobenthic higher taxa diversity and composition of Larsen continental shelf stations were compared to those of deep-sea stations in the Western Weddell Sea to see whether the food-limiting conditions in the deep sea and the food-poor shelf regime at times of iceshelf coverage has resulted in similar meiobenthic communities, on the premises that food availability is the main driver of meiobenthic assemblages. We show here that this is indeed the case; in terms of meiobenthic communities, there is greater similarity between the deep sea and the inner Larsen embayments than there is similarity between the deep sea and the former Larsen B iceshelf edge and the open continental shelf. We also show that resemblance to Antarctic deep-sea meiofaunal communities was indeed significantly higher for communities of the innermost Larsen B area than for those from intermediate parts of Larsen A and B. Similarity between communities from intermediate parts and the deep sea was again higher than between those of the ice-edge and the open shelf. Meiofaunal densities were low at the inner parts of Larsen A and B, and comparable to deep-sea densities, again likely owing to the low food supply at both habitats. We suggest that meiobenthic communities have not yet recovered from the food-limiting conditions present at the time of iceshelf coverage. Meiofaunal diversity on the other hand seemed driven by sediment structure, being higher in coarser sediments.

Cephalopods of the South Georgia slope

During January 2003 the bathymetric distribution of the cephalopod fauna of the South Georgia and Shag Rocks slope (100-900 m) was investigated using a commercial bottom trawl. Forty-four trawl stations caught 193 cephalopod specimens including six species of octopod and seven of squid. The benthic octopods Pareledone turqueti and Adelieledone polymorpha were abundant in shallow water at South Georgia, being replaced by Thaumeledone gunteri in greater depths. However, neither A. polymorpha nor T gunteri were caught on the adjacent Shag Rocks area. Two specimens of the deep-sea genus Graneledone were caught on the South Georgia slope. The most abundant squid species caught were Moroteuthis knipovitchi, Psychroteuthis glacialis and Slosarczykovia circumantarctica, which are primarily pelagic and may have been taken when their vertical migrations impinged on the slope.

Using geotechnical and LIDAR spatial monitoring to determine key environmental slope instability thresholds of a Jurassic coastal landslide: Straidkilly Point, Northern Ireland, UK.

The Antrim Coast Road stretching from the seaport of Larne in the East of Northern Ireland to the famous Giant’s Causeway in the North has a well-deserved reputation for being one of the most spectacular roads in Europe (Day, 2006). At various locations along the route, fluid interactions between the problematic geology, Jurassic Lias Clay and Triassic Mudstone overlain by Cretaceous Limestone and Tertiary Basalt, and environmental variables result in frequent instances of slope instability within the vadose zone. During such instances of instability, debris flows and composite mudflows encroach on the carriageway posing a hazard to road users. This paper examines the site investigative, geotechnical and spatial analysis techniques currently being implemented to monitor slope stability for one site at Straidkilly Point, Glenarm, Northern Ireland. An in-depth understanding of the geology was obtained via boreholes, resistivity surveys and laboratory testing. Environmental variables recorded by an on-site weather station were correlated with measured pore water pressure and soil moisture infiltration dynamic data.
Terrestrial LiDAR (TLS) was applied to the slope for the monitoring of failures, with surveys carried out on a bi-monthly basis. TLS monitoring allowed for the generation of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of difference, highlighting areas of recent movement, erosion and deposition. Morphology parameters were generated from the DEMs and include slope, curvature and multiple measures of roughness. Changes in the structure of the slope coupled with morphological parameters are characterised and linked to progressive failures from the temporal monitoring. In addition to TLS monitoring, Aerial LiDARi datasets were used for the spatio-morphological characterisation of the slope on a macro scale. Results from the geotechnical and environmental monitoring were compared with spatial data obtained through Terrestrial and Airborne LiDAR, providing a multi-faceted approach to slope stability characterization, which facilitates more informed management of geotechnical risk by the Northern Ireland Roads Service.

Mass-wasting episodes in the geological evolution of the Azores islands : timing, recurrence, mechanisms and consequence

Tese de doutoramento (co-tutela), Geologia (Geodinâmica Interna), Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Faculté des Sciences D’Orsay-Université Paris-Sud, 2014

Sea Level Variations during the Late Quaternary and Coastal Evolution along the Northern Kerala, South West of India

In the present investigation, an attempt is made to document various episodes of transgression and regression during the late Quaternary period from the study of coastal and shelf sequences extending from the inland across the beach to the shelf domain. Shore parallel beach ridges with alternating swales and occurrence of strand line deposits on the shelf make the northern Kerala coast an ideal natural laboratory for documenting the morpho-dynamic response of the coast to the changing sea level. The objectives of the study are lithographic reconstruction of environments of deposition from the coastal plain and shelf sequences; documentation of episodes of transgression and regression by studying different coastal plain sequences and shelf deposits and evolve a comprehensive picture of late Quaternary coastal evolution and sea level changes along the northern Kerala coast by collating morphological, lithological and geochronological evidences from the coastal plain and shelf sequences. The present study is confined to two shore-normal east-west trending transects, Viz. Punjavi and Onakkunnu, in the northern Kerala coast.

Approximations to the scattering of water waves by steep topography

A new method is developed for approximating the scattering of linear surface gravity waves on water of varying quiescent depth in two dimensions. A conformal mapping of the fluid domain onto a uniform rectangular strip transforms steep and discontinuous bed profiles into relatively slowly varying, smooth functions in the transformed free-surface condition. By analogy with the mild-slope approach used extensively in unmapped domains, an approximate solution of the transformed problem is sought in the form of a modulated propagating wave which is determined by solving a second-order ordinary differential equation. This can be achieved numerically, but an analytic solution in the form of a rapidly convergent infinite series is also derived and provides simple explicit formulae for the scattered wave amplitudes. Small-amplitude and slow variations in the bedform that are excluded from the mapping procedure are incorporated in the approximation by a straightforward extension of the theory. The error incurred in using the method is established by means of a rigorous numerical investigation and it is found that remarkably accurate estimates of the scattered wave amplitudes are given for a wide range of bedforms and frequencies.

Forecast impact of targeted observations: sensitivity to observation error and proximity to steep orography

For a targeted observations case, the dependence of the size of the forecast impact on the targeted dropsonde observation error in the data assimilation is assessed. The targeted observations were made in the lee of Greenland; the dependence of the impact on the proximity of the observations to the Greenland coast is also investigated. Experiments were conducted using the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), over a limited-area domain at 24-km grid spacing, with a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) scheme. Reducing the operational dropsonde observation errors by one-half increases the maximum forecast improvement from 5% to 7%–10%, measured in terms of total energy. However, the largest impact is seen by replacing two dropsondes on the Greenland coast with two farther from the steep orography; this increases the maximum forecast improvement from 5% to 18% for an 18-h forecast (using operational observation errors). Forecast degradation caused by two dropsonde observations on the Greenland coast is shown to arise from spreading of data by the background errors up the steep slope of Greenland. Removing boundary layer data from these dropsondes reduces the forecast degradation, but it is only a partial solution to this problem. Although only from one case study, these results suggest that observations positioned within a correlation length scale of steep orography may degrade the forecast through the anomalous upslope spreading of analysis increments along terrain-following model levels.

The impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature errors on the simulation of North Atlantic European region climate

Current state-of-the-art climate models fail to capture accurately the path of the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current. This leads to a warm bias near the North American coast, where the modelled Gulf Stream separates from the coast further north, and a cold anomaly to the east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, where the North Atlantic Current remains too zonal in this region. Using an atmosphere-only model forced with the sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the North Atlantic, we consider the impact they have on the mean state and the variability in the North Atlantic European region in winter. Our results show that the SST errors produce a mean sea-level pressure response that is similar in magnitude and pattern to the atmospheric circulation errors in the coupled climate model. The work also suggests that errors in the coupled model storm tracks and North Atlantic Oscillation, compared to reanalysis data, can also be explained partly by these SST errors. Our results suggest that both the error in the Gulf Stream separation location and the path of the North Atlantic Current around the Grand Banks play important roles in affecting the atmospheric circulation. Reducing these coupled model errors could improve significantly the representation of the large-scale atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic and European region.

Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet evolution during the Cenozoic Era

The Antarctic Peninsula region is currently undergoing rapid environmental change, resulting in the thinning, acceleration and recession of glaciers and the sequential collapse of ice shelves. It is important to view these changes in the context of long-term palaeoenvironmental complexity and to understand the key processes controlling ice sheet growth and recession. In addition, numerical ice sheet models require detailed geological data for tuning and testing. Therefore, this paper systematically and holistically reviews published geological evidence for Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet variability for each key locality throughout the Cenozoic, and brings together the prevailing consensus of the extent, character and behaviour of the glaciations of the Antarctic Peninsula region. Major contributions include a downloadable database of 186 terrestrial and marine calibrated dates; an original reconstruction of the LGM ice sheet; and a new series of isochrones detailing ice sheet retreat following the LGM. Glaciation of Antarctica was initiated around the Eocene/Oligocene transition in East Antarctica. Palaeogene records of Antarctic Peninsula glaciation are primarily restricted to King George Island, where glacigenic sediments provide a record of early East Antarctic glaciations, but with modification of far-travelled erratics by local South Shetland Island ice caps. Evidence for Neogene glaciation is derived primarily from King George Island and James Ross Island, where glaciovolcanic strata indicate that ice thicknesses reached 500–850 m during glacials. This suggests that the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet draped, rather than drowned, the topography. Marine geophysical investigations indicate multiple ice sheet advances during this time. Seismic profiling of continental shelf-slope deposits indicates up to ten large advances of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet during the Early Pleistocene, when the ice sheet was dominated by 40 kyr cycles. Glacials became more pronounced, reaching the continental shelf edge, and of longer duration during the Middle Pleistocene. During the Late Pleistocene, repeated glacials reached the shelf edge, but ice shelves inhibited iceberg rafting. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) occurred at 18 ka BP, after which transitional glaciomarine sediments on the continental shelf indicate ice-sheet retreat. The continental shelf contains large bathymetric troughs, which were repeatedly occupied by large ice streams during Pleistocene glaciations. Retreat after the LGM was episodic in the Weddell Sea, with multiple readvances and changes in ice-flow direction, but rapid in the Bellingshausen Sea. The late Holocene Epoch was characterised by repeated fluctuations in palaeoenvironmental conditions, with associated glacial readvances. However, this has been subsumed by rapid warming and ice-shelf collapse during the twentieth century.

The drivers of projected North Atlantic sea level change

Sea level change predicted by the CMIP5 atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) is not spatially homogeneous. In particular, the sea level change in the North Atlantic is usually characterised by a meridional dipole pattern with higher sea level rise north of 40°N and lower to the south. The spread among models is also high in that region. Here we evaluate the role of surface buoyancy fluxes by carrying out simulations with the FAMOUS low-resolution AOGCM forced by surface freshwater and heat flux changes from CO2-forced climate change experiments with CMIP5 AOGCMs, and by a standard idealised surface freshwater flux applied in the North Atlantic. Both kinds of buoyancy flux change lead to the formation of the sea level dipole pattern, although the effect of the heat flux has a greater magnitude, and is the main cause of the spread of results among the CMIP5 models. By using passive tracers in FAMOUS to distinguish between additional and redistributed buoyancy, we show that the enhanced sea level rise north of 40°N is mainly due to the direct steric effect (the reduction of sea water density) caused by adding heat or freshwater locally. The surface buoyancy forcing also causes a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and the consequent reduction of the northward ocean heat transport imposes a negative tendency on sea level rise, producing the reduced rise south of 40°N. However, unlike previous authors, we find that this indirect effect of buoyancy forcing is generally less important than the direct one, except in a narrow band along the east coast of the US, where it plays a major role and leads to sea level rise, as found by previous authors.

Observed anomalous atmospheric patterns in summers of unusual Arctic sea ice melt

The Arctic sea ice retreat has accelerated over the last decade. The negative trend is largest in summer, but substantial interannual variability still remains. Here we explore observed atmospheric conditions and feedback mechanisms during summer months of anomalous sea ice melt in the Arctic. Compositing months of anomalous low and high sea ice melt over 1979–2013, we find distinct patterns in atmospheric circulation, precipitation, radiation, and temperature. Compared to summer months of anomalous low sea ice melt, high melt months are characterized by anomalous high sea level pressure in the Arctic (up to 7 hPa), with a corresponding tendency of storms to track on a more zonal path. As a result, the Arctic receives less precipitation overall and 39% less snowfall. This lowers the albedo of the region and reduces the negative feedback the snowfall provides for the sea ice. With an anticyclonic tendency, 12 W/m2 more incoming shortwave radiation reaches the surface in the start of the season. The melting sea ice in turn promotes cloud development in the marginal ice zones and enhances downwelling longwave radiation at the surface toward the end of the season. A positive cloud feedback emerges. In midlatitudes, the more zonally tracking cyclones give stormier, cloudier, wetter, and cooler summers in most of northern Europe and around the Sea of Okhotsk. Farther south, the region from the Mediterranean Sea to East Asia experiences significant surface warming (up to 2.4◦C), possibly linked to changes in the jet stream.

Spatial and temporal variations of the seasonal sea level cycle in the northwest Pacific

The seasonal sea level variations observed from tide gauges over 1900-2013 and gridded satellite altimeter product AVISO over 1993-2013 in the northwest Pacific have been explored. The seasonal cycle is able to explain 60-90% of monthly sea level variance in the marginal seas, while it explains less than 20% of variance in the eddy-rich regions. The maximum annual and semi-annual sea level cycles (30cm and 6cm) are observed in the north of the East China Sea and the west of the South China Sea respectively. AVISO was found to underestimate the annual amplitude by 25% compared to tide gauge estimates along the coasts of China and Russia. The forcing for the seasonal sea level cycle was identified. The atmospheric pressure and the steric height produce 8-12cm of the annual cycle in the middle continental shelf and in the Kuroshio Current regions separately. The removal of the two attributors from total sea level permits to identify the sea level residuals that still show significant seasonality in the marginal seas. Both nearby wind stress and surface currents can explain well the long-term variability of the seasonal sea level cycle in the marginal seas and the tropics because of their influence on the sea level residuals. Interestingly, the surface currents are a better descriptor in the areas where the ocean currents are known to be strong. Here, they explain 50-90% of inter-annual variability due to the strong links between the steric height and the large-scale ocean currents.