Density forecasts of crude-oil prices using option-implied and ARCH-type models

The predictive accuracy of competing crude-oil price forecast densities is investigated for the 1994–2006 period. Moving beyond standard ARCH type models that rely exclusively on past returns, we examine the benefits of utilizing the forward-looking information that is embedded in the prices of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well as for regions and intervals that are of special interest for the economic agent. We find that non-parametric adjustments of risk-neutral density forecasts perform significantly better than their parametric counterparts. Goodness-of-fit tests and out-of-sample likelihood comparisons favor forecast densities obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:727–754, 2011

Agent-based Anomalies Monitoring in Distributed Systems

In this paper an agent-based approach for anomalies monitoring in distributed systems such as computer networks, or Grid systems is proposed. This approach envisages on-line and off-line monitoring in order to analyze users’ activity. On-line monitoring is carried in real time, and is used to predict user actions. Off-line monitoring is done after the user has ended his work, and is based on the analysis of statistical information obtained during user’s work. In both cases neural networks are used in order to predict user actions and to distinguish normal and anomalous user behavior.

Split-ARCH

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62M10

Tények, adatok és mutatószámok felhasználásának anomáliái (The anomalies of the usage of facts, data, and indexes)

Tudomány nem létezik a tények felmérése, adatok gyűjtése és felhasználása nélkül. A tényeket azonban el lehet hallgatni vagy ferdíteni, az adatokat sokféleképpen lehet összeválogatni, az azokból készült mutatószámokat pedig a bonyolult és változó valóság leegyszerűsítő, sőt meghamisító ábrázolására, illetve magyarázatára is fel lehet használni. _____ Economics cannot do without measuring. However, the required data are not always available or they are not reliable, as some cases of population census exemplify it. The indicators we use, particularly composite indexes, are often misleading because they oversimplify complex phenomena or processes, and neglect important non-measurable ones, as the examples of the per capita GDP indicator measuring the development level of countries, and the composite indexes measuring the “human development” of countries (HDI), or their “national competitiveness” (GCI) may show. To avoid the enchantment of numbers, the quantitative approach must always be combined and corrected by a critical, holistic and qualitative approach.

Sequence-related structural DNA anomalies affect restriction enzyme activity and DNA polymerase I binding

DNA serves as a target molecule for several types of enzymes and may assume a wide variety of structural motifs depending upon the local sequence. The BssHII restriction site (GC)3 resides in a 9bp region of alternating pyrimidine and purine residues within the &phis;X174 genome. Such sequences are known to demonstrate non-canonical helical behavior under the appropriate conditions. The kinetics of BssHII cleavage was investigated in supercoiled and linear plasmid DNA, and in a 323bp DNA fragment obtained via amplification of &phis;X174. The rate of enzyme cleavage was enhanced in the supercoiled form and in the presence of 50μM cobalt hexamine. Similarly, cobalt hexamine was also found to enhance TaqI activity directly adjacent to the (GC)3 region. ^ Initial DNA polymerase I binding studies (including a gel mobility shift assay and a protection assay) indicated a notable interaction between DNA polymerase I and the BssHII site. An in-depth study revealed that equilibrium binding of DNA polymerase I to the T7 RNA polymerase promoter was comparable to that of the (GC)3 site, however the strongest interaction was observed with a cruciform containing region. Increasing the ionic strength of the solution environment, including the addition of DNA polymerase I reaction buffer significantly decreased the equilibrium dissociation constant values. ^ It is suggested that the region within or around the BssHII site experiences a conformational change generating a novel structure under the influence of supercoiled tension or 50μM cobalt hexamine. It is proposed that this transition may enhance enzyme activity and binding by providing an initial enzyme-docking site—the rate-limiting step in restriction enzyme kinetics. The high binding potential of DNA polymerase I for each of the motifs described, is hypothesized to be due to recognition of the structural DNA anomalies by the 3′–5′ exonuclease domain. ^

Characterizations of the major coral diseases of the Philippines: Ulcerative white spot disease and novel growth anomalies of Porites

Coral reefs are in decline worldwide and coral disease is a significant contributing factor. However, etiologies of coral diseases are still not well understood. In contrast with the Caribbean, extremely little is known about coral diseases in the Philippines. In 2005, off Southeast Negros Island, Philippines, I investigated relationships between environmental parameters and prevalence of the two most common coral diseases, ulcerative white spot (UWS) and massive Porites growth anomalies (MPGAs). Samples were collected along a disease prevalence gradient 40.5 km long. Principal component analyses showed prevalence of MPGAs was positively correlated with water column nitrogen, organic carbon of surface sediments, and colony density. UWS was positively correlated with water column phosphorus. This is the first quantitative evidence linking anthropogenically-impacted water and sediment to a higher prevalence of these diseases. Histological and cytological alterations were investigated by comparing tissues from two distinct types of MPGA lesions (types 1 and 2) and healthy coral using light and electron microscopy. Skeletal abnormalities and sloughing, swelling, thinning, and loss of tissues in MPGAs resembled tissues exposed to bacterial or fungal toxins. Both lesion types had decreases in symbiotic zooxanthellae, which supply nutrients to corals. Notable alterations included migrations of chromophore cells (amoebocytes) (1) nocturnally to outer epithelia to perform wound-healing, including plugging gaps and secreting melanin in degraded tissues, and (2) diurnally to the interior of the tissue possibly to prevent shading zooxanthellae in order to maximize photosynthate production. Depletion of melanin (active in wound healing) in type 2 lesions suggested type 2 tissues were overtaxed and less stable. MPGAs contained an abundance of endolithic fungi and virus-like particles, which may result from higher nutrient levels and play roles in disease development. Swollen cells and mucus frequently blocked gastrovascular canals (GVCs) in MPGAs. Type 1 lesions appeared to compensate for impeded flow of wastes and nutrients through these canals with proliferation of new GVCs, which were responsible for the observed thickened tissues. In contrast, type 2 tissues were thin and more degraded. Dysplasia and putative neoplasia were also observed in MPGAs which may result from the tissue regeneration capacity being overwhelmed.

Characterizations of the Major Coral Diseases of the Philippines: Ulcerative White Spot Disease and Novel Growth Anomalies of Porites

Coral reefs are in decline worldwide and coral disease is a significant contributing factor. However, etiologies of coral diseases are still not well understood. In contrast with the Caribbean, extremely little is known about coral diseases in the Philippines. In 2005, off Southeast Negros Island, Philippines, I investigated relationships between environmental parameters and prevalence of the two most common coral diseases, ulcerative white spot (UWS) and massive Porites growth anomalies (MPGAs). Samples were collected along a disease prevalence gradient 40.5 km long. Principal component analyses showed prevalence of MPGAs was positively correlated with water column nitrogen, organic carbon of surface sediments, and colony density. UWS was positively correlated with water column phosphorus. This is the first quantitative evidence linking anthropogenically-impacted water and sediment to a higher prevalence of these diseases. Histological and cytological alterations were investigated by comparing tissues from two distinct types of MPGA lesions (types 1 and 2) and healthy coral using light and electron microscopy. Skeletal abnormalities and sloughing, swelling, thinning, and loss of tissues in MPGAs resembled tissues exposed to bacterial or fungal toxins. Both lesion types had decreases in symbiotic zooxanthellae, which supply nutrients to corals. Notable alterations included migrations of chromophore cells (amoebocytes) (1) nocturnally to outer epithelia to perform wound-healing, including plugging gaps and secreting melanin in degraded tissues, and (2) diurnally to the interior of the tissue possibly to prevent shading zooxanthellae in order to maximize photosynthate production. Depletion of melanin (active in wound healing) in type 2 lesions suggested type 2 tissues were overtaxed and less stable. MPGAs contained an abundance of endolithic fungi and virus-like particles, which may result from higher nutrient levels and play roles in disease development. Swollen cells and mucus frequently blocked gastrovascular canals (GVCs) in MPGAs. Type 1 lesions appeared to compensate for impeded flow of wastes and nutrients through these canals with proliferation of new GVCs, which were responsible for the observed thickened tissues. In contrast, type 2 tissues were thin and more degraded. Dysplasia and putative neoplasia were also observed in MPGAs which may result from the tissue regeneration capacity being overwhelmed.

Last Interglacial synthesis of high-latitude temperature: temperature anomalies and associated errors for 4 time slices

The Last Interglacial (LIG, 129-116 thousand of years BP, ka) represents a test bed for climate model feedbacks in warmer-than-present high latitude regions. However, mainly because aligning different palaeoclimatic archives and from different parts of the world is not trivial, a spatio-temporal picture of LIG temperature changes is difficult to obtain. Here, we have selected 47 polar ice core and sub-polar marine sediment records and developed a strategy to align them onto the recent AICC2012 ice core chronology. We provide the first compilation of high-latitude temperature changes across the LIG associated with a coherent temporal framework built between ice core and marine sediment records. Our new data synthesis highlights non-synchronous maximum temperature changes between the two hemispheres with the Southern Ocean and Antarctica records showing an early warming compared to North Atlantic records. We also observe warmer than present-day conditions that occur for a longer time period in southern high latitudes than in northern high latitudes. Finally, the amplitude of temperature changes at high northern latitudes is larger compared to high southern latitude temperature changes recorded at the onset and the demise of the LIG. We have also compiled four data-based time slices with temperature anomalies (compared to present-day conditions) at 115 ka, 120 ka, 125 ka and 130 ka and quantitatively estimated temperature uncertainties that include relative dating errors. This provides an improved benchmark for performing more robust model-data comparison. The surface temperature simulated by two General Circulation Models (CCSM3 and HadCM3) for 130 ka and 125 ka is compared to the corresponding time slice data synthesis. This comparison shows that the models predict warmer than present conditions earlier than documented in the North Atlantic, while neither model is able to produce the reconstructed early Southern Ocean and Antarctic warming. Our results highlight the importance of producing a sequence of time slices rather than one single time slice averaging the LIG climate conditions.

Does a mandibular RDP and new maxillary CD improve masticatory efficiency and quality of life in patients with a mandibular Kennedy class I arch?

Objectives To evaluate the change in masticatory efficiency and quality of life of patients treated with mandibular Kennedy class I removable partial dentures (RPDs) and maxillary complete dentures at the Department of Dentistry of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte. Materials and methods A total of 33 Kennedy class I patients were rehabilitated with maxillary complete dentures, and mandibular RPDs were selected for this non-randomized prospective intervention study. The patients had a mean age of 59.1 years. Masticatory efficiency was evaluated by colorimetric assay using fuchsin capsules. The measurements were conducted at baseline and 2 and 6 months after prosthesis insertion. Quality of life was evaluated using the Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP-14) at baseline and 6 months after denture insertion. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov normality test was applied. Masticatory efficiency was evaluated by repeated measures ANOVA. Oral health-related quality of life was compared using the paired t test. Results There was no statistically significant difference in masticatory efficiency after denture insertion (p = 0.101). Significant differences were found (p = 0.010) for oral health-related quality of life. A significant improvement in psychological discomfort (p < 0.01) and psychological disability (p < 0.01) was observed. Mean difference value (95 % confidence interval) was 6.8 (3.8 to 9.7) points, reflecting a low impact of oral health on quality of life, considering the 0–56 range of variation of the OHIP-14 and a Cohen’s d of 1.13. Conclusion According to the results of the present study, rehabilitation with Kennedy class I RPDs and complete dentures did not influence masticatory efficiency but improved oral health-related quality of life. Clinical relevance The association between the patient’s quality of life and the masticatory efficiency is important for treatment predictability.

Statistical Anomalies of Bitflips in SRAMs to Discriminate SBUs from MCUs

Recently, the occurrence of multiple events in static tests has been investigated by checking the statistical distribution of the difference between the addresses of the words containing bitflips. That method has been successfully applied to Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) and the original authors indicate that it is also valid for SRAMs. This paper presents a modified methodology that is based on checking the XORed addresses with bitflips, rather than on the difference. Irradiation tests on CMOS 130 & 90 nm SRAMs with 14-MeV neutrons have been performed to validate this methodology. Results in high-altitude environments are also presented and cross-checked with theoretical predictions. In addition, this methodology has also been used to detect modifications in the organization of said memories. Theoretical predictions have been validated with actual data provided by the manufacturer.

Estimation linéaire pour un modèle de régression ARCH

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Effets d'anomalies biochimiques de l'obésité sur l'expression de cytokines pro-inflammatoires

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Effets de l'amnioinfusion en présence de liquide amniotique méconial épais sur les anomalies du rythme cardiaque foetal

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Anomalies de la tolérance au glucose secondaires à la fibrose kystique : relations avec le statut clinique

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.