Single period Markowitz portfolio selection, performance gauging and duality: a variation on Luenberger's shortage function

Markowitz portfolio theory (1952) has induced research into the efficiency of portfolio management. This paper studies existing nonparametric efficiency measurement approaches for single period portfolio selection from a theoretical perspective and generalises currently used efficiency measures into the full mean-variance space. Therefore, we introduce the efficiency improvement possibility function (a variation on the shortage function), study its axiomatic properties in the context of Markowitz efficient frontier, and establish a link to the indirect mean-variance utility function. This framework allows distinguishing between portfolio efficiency and allocative efficiency. Furthermore, it permits retrieving information about the revealed risk aversion of investors. The efficiency improvement possibility function thus provides a more general framework for gauging the efficiency of portfolio management using nonparametric frontier envelopment methods based on quadratic optimisation.

Distribuição geográfica da fauna e flora da Baía de Guanabara

The author studied, the horizontal and vertical distribution of most common part of the flora and fauna of the bay of Guanabara at Rio de Janeiro. In this paper the eulittoral, poly, meso and oligohaline regions were localised and studied; and the first chart of its distribution was presented (fig. 2). The salinity of superficial waters was established through determinations based on 30 trips inside the buy for collecting biological materials. Some often 409 determinations which were previous reported together with the present ones served for the eleboration of a salinity map of the bay of Guanabara (fig. 1). This map of fig. 2 shows the geographic locations of the water regions. EULITTORAL WATER REGIME — Fig. 3 shows the diagram scheme of fauna and flora of this regime. Sea water salinity 34/1.000, density mean 1.027, transparent greenish waters, sea coast with moderate bursting waves. Limpid sea shore with white sand, gneiss with the big barnacle Tetraclita squamosa var. stalactifera (Lam. Pilsbry. Vertical distributions: barna¬cles layers with a green region in which are present the oyster Ostrea pa-rasitica L., the barnacles Tetraclita, Chthamalus, Balanus tintinnabulum var. tintinnabulum (L.) e var. antillensis Pilsbry in connection with several mollusca and the sea beatle Isopoda Lygia sp. Covered by water and exposed to air by the tidal ritms, there is a stratum of brown animals that is the layer of mussels Mytilus perna L., with others brown and chestnut animals : the Crustacea Pachygrapsus, the little crab Porcellana sp., the stone crab Me-nippe nodifrons Stimpson, the sea stars Echinaster brasiliensis (Mull. & Tr.), Astropecten sp. and the sea anemones Actinia sp. Underneath and never visible there is a subtidal region with green tubular algae of genus Codium and amidst its bunches the sea urchin Lycthchinus variegatus (Agass.) walks and more deeply there are numerous sand-dollars Encope emarginata (Leske). The microplancton of this regime is Ceratiumplancton. POLYHALINE WATER REGIMB — Water almost sea water, but directly influenced by continental lands, with rock salts dissolved and in suspension. Salinity: 33 to 32/1.000. This waters endure the actions of the popular nicknamed «water of the hill» (as the waters of mesohaline and oligohaline regimes), becoming suddenly reddish during several hours. That pheno¬menon returns several times in the year and come with great mortality of fishes. In these waters, according to Dr. J. G. FARIA there are species of Protozoa : Peridinea, the Glenoidinium trochoideum St., followed by its satellites which he thinks that they are able to secret toxical substances which can slaughter some species of fishes. In these «waters of the hill» was found a species of Copepoda the Charlesia darwini. In August 1946 the west shore of the Guanabara was plenty of killed fishes occupying a area of 8 feet large by 3 nautical miles of lenght. The enclosure for catching fishes in the rivers mouthes presents in these periods mass dead fishes. The phenomenon of «waters of the hill» appears with the first rains after a period of long dryness. MESOHALINE WATER REGIME — Fig. 4 shows the the diagramm scheme. Salt or brackish water from 30 to 17/1.000 salinity, sometimes until 10/1.000. Turbid waters with mud in suspension, chestnut, claveyous waters; shore dirty black mud without waving bursting; the waters are warmer and shorner than those of the polihaline regime. Mangrove shore with the mangrove trees : Rhizophora mangle L., Avicennia sp., Laguncularia sp., and the »cotton tree of sea» Hibiscus sp. Fauna: the great land crab «guaimú» Cardisoma guanhumi Latr., ashore in dry firm land. There is the real land crab Ucides cordatus (L.) in wetting mud and in neigh¬ bourhood of the burrows of the fiddler-crabs of genus Uca. On stones and in the roots of the Rhizophora inhabits the brightly colored mangrove-tree-crab («aratu» Portuguese nickname) Goniopsis cruentata (Latreille) and the sparingly the big oyster Ostrea rhizophorae Guild. Lower is the region of barnacles Balanus amphitrite var. communis Darwin and var. niveus Darwin; Balanus tintinnabulum var. tintinnabulum (L.) doesn't grow in this brackish water; lower is the region of Pelecipoda with prepollency of Venus and Cytherea shell-fishes and the Panopeus mud crab; there are the sea lettuce Ulva and the Gastreropod Cerithium. The Paguridae Clibanarius which lives in the empty shells of Gasteropod molluscs, and the sessile ascidians Tethium plicatum (Lesuer) appears in some seasons. In the bottom there is a black argillous mud where the «one landed shrimps» Alpheus sp. is hidden. OLIGOHALINE WATER REGIME — The salinity is lower than 10/1.000. average 8/1.000. There are no barnacles and no sea-beetles Isopods of genus Lygia; on the hay of the shore there are several graminea. This brackish water pervades by mouthes of rivers and penetrates until about 3 kilometers river above. While there is some salt dissolved in water, there are some mud crabs of the genus Uca, Sesarma, Metasesarma and Chasmagnatus. The presence of floating green plants coming from the rivers in the waters of a region indicated the oligohaline waters, with low salt content because when the average of NaCl increases above 8/1.000 these plants die and become rusty colored.

The period function of the generalized Lotka-Volterra centers

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt"

The effect of structural fund spending on the spanish regions: an assessment of the 1994-99 objective 1 CSF

This paper analyzes the growth and employment effects of the 1994-99 Community Support Framework (CSF) for the Objective 1 Spanish regions using a simple supply-side model estimated with a panel of regional data. The results suggest that the impact of the Structural Funds in Spain has been quite sizable, adding around a percentage point to annual output growth in the average Objective 1 region and 0.4 points to employment growth. Over the period 1994-2000, the Framework has resulted in the creation of over 300,000 new jobs and has eliminated 20% of the initial gap in income per capita between the assisted regions and the rest of the country.

A proposal for a new specification for a conditionally heteroskedastic variance model: the Quadratic Moving-Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity and an application to the D. Mark-U.S. dollar Exchange Rate

Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model [Engle(1982a)], an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged [i.e. Bollerslev's (1986) GARCH; Nelson's (1990) EGARCH]. This recent domain has achieved very successful developments. Nevertheless, several empirical studies seem to show that the performance of such models is not always appropriate [Boulier(1992)]. In this paper we propose a new specification: the Quadratic Moving Average Conditional heteroskedasticity model. Its statistical properties, such as the kurtosis and the symmetry, as well as two estimators (Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood) are studied. Two statistical tests are presented, the first one tests for homoskedasticity and the second one, discriminates between ARCH and QMACH specification. A Monte Carlo study is presented in order to illustrate some of the theoretical results. An empirical study is undertaken for the DM-US exchange rate.

On the relation between tax rates and evasion in a multi-period economy

We extend the basic tax evasion model to a multi-period economy exhibiting sustained growth. When individuals conceal part of their true income from the tax authority, they face the risk of being audited and hence of paying the corresponding fine. Both taxes and fines determine individual saving and the rate of capital accumulation. In this context we show that the sign of the relation between the level of the tax rate and the amount of evaded income is the same as that obtained in static setups. Moreover, high tax rates on income are typically associated with low growth rates as occurs in standard growth models that disregard the tax evasion phenomenon.

The demand elasticity on tolled motorways

This paper analyses the elasticities of demand in tolled motorways in Spain with respect to the main variables influencing it. The demand equation is estimated using a panel data set where the cross-section observations correspond to the different Spanish tolled motorways sections, and the temporal dimension ranges from the beginning of the eighties until the end of the nineties. The results show a high elasticity with respect to the economic activity level. The average elasticity with respect to petrol price falls around -0.3, while toll elasticities clearly vary across motorway sections. These motorway sections are classified into four groups according to the estimated toll elasticity with values that range from -0.21 for the most inelastic to -0.83 for the most elastic. The main factors that explain such differences are the quality of the alternative road and the length of the section. The long-term effect is about 50 per cent higher than the short term one; however, the period of adjustment is relatively short.

Entrepreneurship, management services and economic growth

We model the joint production of entrepreneurs and workers where the former provide both entrepreneurial (strategic) and managerial (coordination, motivation) services, and management services are shared with individual workers in an output maximizing way. The static equilibrium of the model determines the endogenous share of entrepreneurs in the economy in a given moment of time. The time dynamics of the solution implies that a given growth rate in quality of entrepreneurial services contributes to productivity growth proportionally to the share of entrepreneurs at the start of the period and improvement in quality of entrepreneurial services is convergence enhancing. Model predictions are tested with data from OECD countries in the period 1970-2002. We find that improvements in quality of entrepreneurial services over time explain up to 100% of observed average productivity growth in these countries.

Poliomyelitis: epidemiological aspects in Rio de Janeiro (Guanabara State) and adjacent areas in the period from 1961 to 1970

Based on the available data from the Hospital responsible for the care of paralitic poliomyelitis cases in Rio de Janeiro City (Guanabara State) and adjacent areas, and the laboratory studies carried out on these patients, the authors analize epidemiological aspects of poliomyelitis in a period of ten years (1961 to 1970). Paralitic poliomyelitis remains a public health problem, with a typical incidence in the less than 4 year age group. All three poliovirus types have been prevalent for at least one period of time during the last ten years. Trivalent oral vaccine has been used since 1961 but the vaccination levels achieved were not enough to a permanent control of the disease. A definite seasonal distribution of cases could not be observed with the available data. Active mass campaign vaccinations with previous motivation of all segments of the population, specially the low-income groups instead of passive waiting of children in Vaccination Centers seems to be the best aproach to control poliomyelitis in this area.

The biophysical perspective of a middle income economy: material flows in Mexico

We analyse natural resource use dynamics in the Mexican economy during the last three decades. Despite low and uneven economic growth, the extraction and use of materials in the Mexican economy has continuously increased during the last 30 years. In this period, population growth rather than economic growth was the main driving force for biophysical growth. In addition, fundamental changes have taken place in the primary sectors, in manufacturing, and in household consumption and these are reflected in an increasing emphasis on the use of fossil fuels and construction materials. Mexico’s economy has been strongly influenced by international trade since the country commenced competing in international markets. In the 1970s, Mexico mainly exported primary resources. This pattern has changed and manufactured goods now have a much greater importance due to a boom in assembling industries. In contrast with other Latin American countries, Mexico has achieved a diversification of production, moving towards technology-intensive products and a better mix in its export portfolio. However, crude oil exports still represent the single most important export good. Mexico’s material consumption is still well below the OECD average but is growing fast and the current resource use patterns may well present serious social and environmental problems to the medium and long term sustainability of Mexico’s economy and community. Information on natural resource use and resource productivity could provide valuable guidance for economic policy planning in Mexico.

Wealth constraints, skill prices or networks: what determines emigrant selection?

The productive characteristics of migrating individuals, emigrant selection, affect welfare. The empirical estimation of the degree of selection suffers from a lack of complete and nationally representative data. This paper uses a new and better dataset to address both issues: the ENET (Mexican Labor Survey), which identifies emigrants right before they leave and allows a direct comparison to non-migrants. This dataset presents a relevant dichotomy: it shows on average negative selection for Mexican emigrants to the United States for the period 2000-2004 together with positive selection in Mexican emigration out of rural Mexico to the United States in the same period. Three theories that could explain this dichotomy are tested. Whereas higher skill prices in Mexico than in the US are enough to explain negative selection in urban Mexico, its combination with network effects and wealth constraints is required to account for positive selection in rural Mexico.

Of Coalition and Speed: Passage and Duration of Statutes in Uruguay's Parliament, 1985-2000

We report preliminary findings from analysis of a database under construction. The paper explores the legislative process in search for some of the alleged consequences of cabinet coalitions in a presidential system. Coalition effects should be less evident in the success of executive initiatives: strategic behavior hampers this intuitive measure of performance. Better measures, because less subject to strategic considerations, are the odds of passage of legislators' bills and the time proposals take to be approved. Thus measured, coalition effects are discernible. Analysis of the universe of proposals processed in the fragmented Uruguayan Parliament between 1985 and 2000 reveals that coalition, observed about half the period, swells success rates of coalition members by 60% on average (and by as much as 150% for those close to the president). Event history analysis shows that coalitions cut the wait for an executive bill by 3 months, 1/6th the average wait. The reverse effect is felt on the duration of legislators' bills.

Electronic compliance monitoring in resistant hypertension: the basis for rational therapeutic decisions.

OBJECTIVE: Incomplete compliance is one of several possible causes of uncontrolled hypertension. Yet, non-compliance remains largely unrecognized and is falsely interpreted as treatment resistance, because it is difficult to confirm or exclude objectively. The goal of this study was to evaluate the potential benefits of electronic monitoring of drug compliance in the management of patients with resistant hypertension. METHODS: Forty-one hypertensive patients resistant to a three-drug regimen (average blood pressure 156/ 106 +/- 23/11 mmHg, mean +/- SD) were studied prospectively. They were informed that for the next 2 months, their presently prescribed drugs would be provided in electronic monitors, without any change in treatment, so as to provide the treating physician with a measure of their compliance. Thereafter, patients were offered the possibility of prolonging the monitoring of compliance for another 2 month period, during which treatment was adapted if necessary. RESULTS: Monitoring of compliance alone was associated with a significant improvement of blood pressure at 2 months (145/97 +/- 20/15 mmHg, P < 0.01). During monitoring, blood pressure was normalized (systolic < 140 mmHg or diastolic < 90 mmHg) in one-third of the patients and insufficient compliance was unmasked in another 20%. When analysed according to tertiles of compliance, patients with the lowest compliance exhibited significantly higher achieved diastolic blood pressures (P = 0.04). In 30 patients, compliance was monitored up to 4 months and drug therapy was adapted whenever necessary. In these patients, a further significant decrease in blood pressure was obtained (from 150/100 +/- 18/15 to 143/94 +/- 22/11 mmHg, P = 0.04/0.02). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that objective monitoring of compliance using electronic devices may be a useful step in the management of patients with refractory hypertension, as it enables physicians to take rational decisions based on reliable and objective data of drug compliance and hence to improve blood pressure control.

Coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease mortality in young adults: recent trends in Europe.

Background: Over the last two decades, mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD) declined by about 30% in the European Union (EU). Design: We analyzed trends in CHD (X ICD codes: I20-I25) and CVD (X ICD codes: I60-I69) mortality in young adults (age 35-44 years) in the EU as a whole and in 12 selected European countries, over the period 1980-2007. Methods: Data were derived from the World Health Organization mortality database. With joinpoint regression analysis, we identified significant changes in trends and estimated average annual percent changes (AAPC). Results: CHD mortality rates at ages 35-44 years have decreased in both sexes since the 1980s for most countries, except for Russia (130/100,000 men and 24/100,000 women, in 2005-7). The lowest rates (around 9/100,000 men, 2/100,000 women) were in France, Italy and Sweden. In men, the steepest declines in mortality were in the Czech Republic (AAPC = -6.1%), the Netherlands (-5.2%), Poland (-4.5%), and England and Wales (-4.5%). Patterns were similar in women, though with appreciably lower rates. The AAPC in the EU was -3.3% for men (rate = 16.6/100,000 in 2005-7) and -2.1% for women (rate = 3.5/100,000). For CVD, Russian rates in 2005-7 were 40/100,000 men and 16/100,000 women, 5 to 10-fold higher than in most western European countries. The steepest declines were in the Czech Republic and Italy for men, in Sweden and the Czech Republic for women. The AAPC in the EU was -2.5% in both sexes, with steeper declines after the mid-late 1990s (rates = 6.4/100,000 men and 4.3/100,000 women in 2005-7). Conclusions: CHD and CVD mortality steadily declined in Europe, except in Russia, whose rates were 10 to 15-fold higher than those of France, Italy or Sweden. Hungary and Poland, and also Scotland, where CHD trends were less favourable than in other western European countries, also emerge as priorities for preventive interventions.

Setting boundaries: brain dynamics of modal and amodal illusory shape completion in humans.

Normal visual perception requires differentiating foreground from background objects. Differences in physical attributes sometimes determine this relationship. Often such differences must instead be inferred, as when two objects or their parts have the same luminance. Modal completion refers to such perceptual "filling-in" of object borders that are accompanied by concurrent brightness enhancement, in turn termed illusory contours (ICs). Amodal completion is filling-in without concurrent brightness enhancement. Presently there are controversies regarding whether both completion processes use a common neural mechanism and whether perceptual filling-in is a bottom-up, feedforward process initiating at the lowest levels of the cortical visual pathway or commences at higher-tier regions. We previously examined modal completion (Murray et al., 2002) and provided evidence that the earliest modal IC sensitivity occurs within higher-tier object recognition areas of the lateral occipital complex (LOC). We further proposed that previous observations of IC sensitivity in lower-tier regions likely reflect feedback modulation from the LOC. The present study tested these proposals, examining the commonality between modal and amodal completion mechanisms with high-density electrical mapping, spatiotemporal topographic analyses, and the local autoregressive average distributed linear inverse source estimation. A common initial mechanism for both types of completion processes (140 msec) that manifested as a modulation in response strength within higher-tier visual areas, including the LOC and parietal structures, is demonstrated, whereas differential mechanisms were evident only at a subsequent time period (240 msec), with amodal completion relying on continued strong responses in these structures.