854 resultados para Autoregressive moving average (ARMA)


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This thesis examines important issues of Irish vernacular Catholicism, Irish religious and cultural identities, the impacts of modernity plus socio-religious and economic change on traditional religiosity, sacred landscape and topophilia, religious material culture, folk and individual creativity, gender roles and expectations, and devotional subcultures through the vehicle of Marian apparitions and their aftermath in the Republic of Ireland in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. This thesis examines in detail five Irish Marian shrines as case studies; Knock shrine (Co. Mayo), Ballinspittle and Mitchelstown grottoes (Co. Cork), Mount Melleray grotto (Co. Waterford) and the Marian shrines of Inchigeela in West Cork and the attached houses of prayer. Key themes include; vernacular religious theory; the nature of Irish indigenous Catholicism; local, global and transnational trends in contemporary Irish devotional life; areas of individual creativity, fluidity and agency in Marian devotion; and the vital role and influence of material culture in and on local and individual religiosity.

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Conventional hedonic techniques for estimating the value of local amenities rely on the assumption that households move freely among locations. We show that when moving is costly, the variation in housing prices and wages across locations may no longer reflect the value of differences in local amenities. We develop an alternative discrete-choice approach that models the household location decision directly, and we apply it to the case of air quality in US metro areas in 1990 and 2000. Because air pollution is likely to be correlated with unobservable local characteristics such as economic activity, we instrument for air quality using the contribution of distant sources to local pollution-excluding emissions from local sources, which are most likely to be correlated with local conditions. Our model yields an estimated elasticity of willingness to pay with respect to air quality of 0.34-0.42. These estimates imply that the median household would pay $149-$185 (in constant 1982-1984 dollars) for a one-unit reduction in average ambient concentrations of particulate matter. These estimates are three times greater than the marginal willingness to pay estimated by a conventional hedonic model using the same data. Our results are robust to a range of covariates, instrumenting strategies, and functional form assumptions. The findings also confirm the importance of instrumenting for local air pollution. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Like other emerging economies, India's quest for independent, evidence-based, and affordable healthcare has led to robust and promising growth in the clinical research sector, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.4% between 2005 and 2010. However, while the fundamental drivers and strengths are still strong, the past few years witnessed a declining trend (CAGR -16.7%) amid regulatory concerns, activist protests, and sponsor departure. And although India accounts for 17.5% of the world's population, it currently conducts only 1% of clinical trials. Indian and international experts and public stakeholders gathered for a 2-day conference in June 2013 in New Delhi to discuss the challenges facing clinical research in India and to explore solutions. The main themes discussed were ethical standards, regulatory oversight, and partnerships with public stakeholders. The meeting was a collaboration of AAHRPP (Association for the Accreditation of Human Research Protection Programs)-aimed at establishing responsible and ethical clinical research standards-and PARTAKE (Public Awareness of Research for Therapeutic Advancements through Knowledge and Empowerment)-aimed at informing and engaging the public in clinical research. The present article covers recent clinical research developments in India as well as associated expectations, challenges, and suggestions for future directions. AAHRPP and PARTAKE provide etiologically based solutions to protect, inform, and engage the public and medical research sponsors.

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Las matemáticas modernas han sido un slogan durante una década. Las matemáticas modernas, interpretadas literalmente matan la educación; interpretadas de acuerdo con su espíritu pueden darle vida. El autor sitúa las matemáticas en sus contextos, histórico, social y de desarrollo intelectual, y la educación matemática en el contexto de la educación en general, así como su desarrollo pasado y presente. En la cúspide de la producción científica, generalmente se reconoce que las matemáticas son una actividad, mucho más que un almacén de conocimientos bien establecido. La filosofía sobre la enseñanza que el autor proclama es que esta idea se aplica a todos los niveles del proceso de aprendizaje. Se analizan estos niveles en numerosos ejemplos. Esta teoría general va seguida de un análisis de varios conceptos y campos matemáticos cruciales.

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Examines the provisions of European Parliament and Council Directive 2004/38 protecting the rights of EU citizens' partners to move freely within the EU. Highlights criticisms of the previous legislation, in particular, the lack of rights for cohabitees. Considers the extension of rights to registered partners, and the improved position of unmarried partners, noting, however, the lack of guidance on whether an unmarried couple's relationship is "durable" and "duly attested". Explains the circumstances in which non-EU spouses will not now lose the right of residence on divorce. [From Legal Journals Index]

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Description of design of house that includes a dance studio

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Large-scale biogeographical changes in the biodiversity of a key zooplankton group (calanoid copepods) were detected in the north-eastern part of the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent seas over the period 1960–1999. These findings provided key empirical evidence for climate change impacts on marine ecosystems at the regional to oceanic scale. Since 1999, global temperatures have continued to rise in the region. Here, we extend the analysis to the period 1958–2005 using all calanoid copepod species assemblages (nine species assemblages based on an analysis including a total of 108 calanoid species or taxa) and show that this phenomenon has been reinforced in all regions. Our study reveals that the biodiversity of calanoid copepods are responding quickly to sea surface temperature (SST) rise by moving geographically northward at a rapid rate up to about 23.16 km yr−1. Our analysis suggests that nearly half of the increase in sea temperature in the northeast Atlantic and adjacent seas is related to global temperature rises (46.35% of the total variance of temperature) while changes in both natural modes of atmospheric and oceanic circulation explain 26.45% of the total variance of temperature. Although some SST isotherms have moved northwards by an average rate of up to 21.75 km yr−1 (e.g. the North Sea), their movement cannot fully quantify all species assemblage shifts. Furthermore, the observed rates of biogeographical movements are far greater than those observed in the terrestrial realm. Here, we discuss the processes that may explain such a discrepancy and suggest that the differences are mainly explained by the fluid nature of the pelagic domain, the life cycle of the zooplankton and the lesser anthropogenic influence (e.g. exploitation, habitat fragmentation) on these organisms. We also hypothesize that despite changes in the path and intensity of the oceanic currents that may modify quickly and greatly pelagic zooplankton species, these organisms may reflect better the current impact of climate warming on ecosystems as terrestrial organisms are likely to significantly lag the current impact of climate change.