942 resultados para Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average Model with exogenous inputs
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Genetic screening of women from multiple-case breast cancer families and other research-based endeavors have identified an extensive collection of germline variations of BRCA1 and BRCA2 that can be classified as deleterious and have clinical relevance. For some variants, such as those in the conserved intronic splice site regions which are highly likely to alter splicing, it is not possible to classify them based on the identified DNA sequence variation alone. We studied 11 multiple-case breast cancer families carrying seven distinct splice site region genetic alterations in BRCA1 or BRCA2 (BRCA1, c.IVS6-2delA, c.IVS9-2A>C, c.IVS4-1G>T, c.IVS20+1G>A and BRCA2, c.IVS17-1G>C, c.IVS20+1G>A, c.IVS7-1G>A) and applied SpliceSiteFinder to predict possible changes in efficiency of splice donor and acceptor sites, characterized the transcripts, and estimated the average age-specific cumulative risk (penetrance) using a modified segregation analysis. SpliceSiteFinder predicted and we identified transcipts that illustrated that all variants caused exon skipping, and all but two led to frameshifts. The risks of breast cancer to age 70 yrs, averaged over all variants, over BRCA1 variants alone, and over BRCA2 variants alone, were 73% (95% confidence interval 47-93), 64% (95%CI 28-96) and 79% (95%CI 48-98) respectively (all P
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The A(n-1) Gaudin model with integrable boundaries specified by non-diagonal K-matrices is studied. The commuting families of Gaudin operators are diagonalized by the algebraic Bethe ansatz method. The eigenvalues and the corresponding Bethe ansatz equations are obtained. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The mechanical behavior of the vertebrate skull is often modeled using free-body analysis of simple geometric structures and, more recently, finite-element (FE) analysis. In this study, we compare experimentally collected in vivo bone strain orientations and magnitudes from the cranium of the American alligator with those extrapolated from a beam model and extracted from an FE model. The strain magnitudes predicted from beam and FE skull models bear little similarity to relative and absolute strain magnitudes recorded during in vivo biting experiments. However, quantitative differences between principal strain orientations extracted from the FE skull model and recorded during the in vivo experiments were smaller, and both generally matched expectations from the beam model. The differences in strain magnitude between the data sets may be attributable to the level of resolution of the models, the material properties used in the FE model, and the loading conditions (i.e., external forces and constraints). This study indicates that FE models and modeling of skulls as simple engineering structures may give a preliminary idea of how these structures are loaded, but whenever possible, modeling results should be verified with either in vitro or preferably in vivo testing, especially if precise knowledge of strain magnitudes is desired. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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The water retention curve (WRC) is a hydraulic characteristic of concrete required for advanced modeling of water (and thus solute) transport in variably saturated, heterogeneous concrete. Unfortunately, determination by a direct experimental method (for example, measuring equilibrium moisture levels of large samples stored in constant humidity cells) is a lengthy process, taking over 2 years for large samples. A surrogate approach is presented in which the WRC is conveniently estimated from mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP) and validated by water sorption isotherms: The well-known Barrett, Joyner and Halenda (BJH) method of estimating the pore size distribution (PSD) from the water sorption isotherm is shown to complement the PSD derived from conventional MIP. This provides a basis for predicting the complete WRC from MIP data alone. The van Genuchten equation is used to model the combined water sorption and MIP results. It is a convenient tool for describing water retention characteristics over the full moisture content range. The van Genuchten parameter estimation based solely on MIP is shown to give a satisfactory approximation to the WRC, with a simple restriction on one. of the parameters.
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Motivation: The clustering of gene profiles across some experimental conditions of interest contributes significantly to the elucidation of unknown gene function, the validation of gene discoveries and the interpretation of biological processes. However, this clustering problem is not straightforward as the profiles of the genes are not all independently distributed and the expression levels may have been obtained from an experimental design involving replicated arrays. Ignoring the dependence between the gene profiles and the structure of the replicated data can result in important sources of variability in the experiments being overlooked in the analysis, with the consequent possibility of misleading inferences being made. We propose a random-effects model that provides a unified approach to the clustering of genes with correlated expression levels measured in a wide variety of experimental situations. Our model is an extension of the normal mixture model to account for the correlations between the gene profiles and to enable covariate information to be incorporated into the clustering process. Hence the model is applicable to longitudinal studies with or without replication, for example, time-course experiments by using time as a covariate, and to cross-sectional experiments by using categorical covariates to represent the different experimental classes. Results: We show that our random-effects model can be fitted by maximum likelihood via the EM algorithm for which the E(expectation) and M(maximization) steps can be implemented in closed form. Hence our model can be fitted deterministically without the need for time-consuming Monte Carlo approximations. The effectiveness of our model-based procedure for the clustering of correlated gene profiles is demonstrated on three real datasets, representing typical microarray experimental designs, covering time-course, repeated-measurement and cross-sectional data. In these examples, relevant clusters of the genes are obtained, which are supported by existing gene-function annotation. A synthetic dataset is considered too.
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Background: Oral itraconazole (ITRA) is used for the treatment of allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) because of its antifungal activity against Aspergillus species. ITRA has an active hydroxy-metabolite (OH-ITRA) which has similar antifungal activity. ITRA is a highly lipophilic drug which is available in two different oral formulations, a capsule and an oral solution. It is reported that the oral solution has a 60% higher relative bioavailability. The influence of altered gastric physiology associated with CF on the pharmacokinetics (PK) of ITRA and its metabolite has not been previously evaluated. Objectives: 1) To estimate the population (pop) PK parameters for ITRA and its active metabolite OH-ITRA including relative bioavailability of the parent after administration of the parent by both capsule and solution and 2) to assess the performance of the optimal design. Methods: The study was a cross-over design in which 30 patients received the capsule on the first occasion and 3 days later the solution formulation. The design was constrained to have a maximum of 4 blood samples per occasion for estimation of the popPK of both ITRA and OH-ITRA. The sampling times for the population model were optimized previously using POPT v.2.0.[1] POPT is a series of applications that run under MATLAB and provide an evaluation of the information matrix for a nonlinear mixed effects model given a particular design. In addition it can be used to optimize the design based on evaluation of the determinant of the information matrix. The model details for the design were based on prior information obtained from the literature, which suggested that ITRA may have either linear or non-linear elimination. The optimal sampling times were evaluated to provide information for both competing models for the parent and metabolite and for both capsule and solution simultaneously. Blood samples were assayed by validated HPLC.[2] PopPK modelling was performed using FOCE with interaction under NONMEM, version 5 (level 1.1; GloboMax LLC, Hanover, MD, USA). The PK of ITRA and OH‑ITRA was modelled simultaneously using ADVAN 5. Subsequently three methods were assessed for modelling concentrations less than the LOD (limit of detection). These methods (corresponding to methods 5, 6 & 4 from Beal[3], respectively) were (a) where all values less than LOD were assigned to half of LOD, (b) where the closest missing value that is less than LOD was assigned to half the LOD and all previous (if during absorption) or subsequent (if during elimination) missing samples were deleted, and (c) where the contribution of the expectation of each missing concentration to the likelihood is estimated. The LOD was 0.04 mg/L. The final model evaluation was performed via bootstrap with re-sampling and a visual predictive check. The optimal design and the sampling windows of the study were evaluated for execution errors and for agreement between the observed and predicted standard errors. Dosing regimens were simulated for the capsules and the oral solution to assess their ability to achieve ITRA target trough concentration (Cmin,ss of 0.5-2 mg/L) or a combined Cmin,ss for ITRA and OH-ITRA above 1.5mg/L. Results and Discussion: A total of 241 blood samples were collected and analysed, 94% of them were taken within the defined optimal sampling windows, of which 31% where taken within 5 min of the exact optimal times. Forty six per cent of the ITRA values and 28% of the OH-ITRA values were below LOD. The entire profile after administration of the capsule for five patients was below LOD and therefore the data from this occasion was omitted from estimation. A 2-compartment model with 1st order absorption and elimination best described ITRA PK, with 1st order metabolism of the parent to OH-ITRA. For ITRA the clearance (ClItra/F) was 31.5 L/h; apparent volumes of central and peripheral compartments were 56.7 L and 2090 L, respectively. Absorption rate constants for capsule (kacap) and solution (kasol) were 0.0315 h-1 and 0.125 h-1, respectively. Comparative bioavailability of the capsule was 0.82. There was no evidence of nonlinearity in the popPK of ITRA. No screened covariate significantly improved the fit to the data. The results of the parameter estimates from the final model were comparable between the different methods for accounting for missing data, (M4,5,6)[3] and provided similar parameter estimates. The prospective application of an optimal design was found to be successful. Due to the sampling windows, most of the samples could be collected within the daily hospital routine, but still at times that were near optimal for estimating the popPK parameters. The final model was one of the potential competing models considered in the original design. The asymptotic standard errors provided by NONMEM for the final model and empirical values from bootstrap were similar in magnitude to those predicted from the Fisher Information matrix associated with the D-optimal design. Simulations from the final model showed that the current dosing regimen of 200 mg twice daily (bd) would provide a target Cmin,ss (0.5-2 mg/L) for only 35% of patients when administered as the solution and 31% when administered as capsules. The optimal dosing schedule was 500mg bd for both formulations. The target success for this dosing regimen was 87% for the solution with an NNT=4 compared to capsules. This means, for every 4 patients treated with the solution one additional patient will achieve a target success compared to capsule but at an additional cost of AUD $220 per day. The therapeutic target however is still doubtful and potential risks of these dosing schedules need to be assessed on an individual basis. Conclusion: A model was developed which described the popPK of ITRA and its main active metabolite OH-ITRA in adult CF after administration of both capsule and solution. The relative bioavailability of ITRA from the capsule was 82% that of the solution, but considerably more variable. To incorporate missing data, using the simple Beal method 5 (using half LOD for all samples below LOD) provided comparable results to the more complex but theoretically better Beal method 4 (integration method). The optimal sparse design performed well for estimation of model parameters and provided a good fit to the data.
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The ERS-1 satellite carries a scatterometer which measures the amount of radiation scattered back toward the satellite by the ocean's surface. These measurements can be used to infer wind vectors. The implementation of a neural network based forward model which maps wind vectors to radar backscatter is addressed. Input noise cannot be neglected. To account for this noise, a Bayesian framework is adopted. However, Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling is too computationally expensive. Instead, gradient information is used with a non-linear optimisation algorithm to find the maximum em a posteriori probability values of the unknown variables. The resulting models are shown to compare well with the current operational model when visualised in the target space.
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The ERS-1 satellite carries a scatterometer which measures the amount of radiation scattered back toward the satellite by the ocean's surface. These measurements can be used to infer wind vectors. The implementation of a neural network based forward model which maps wind vectors to radar backscatter is addressed. Input noise cannot be neglected. To account for this noise, a Bayesian framework is adopted. However, Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling is too computationally expensive. Instead, gradient information is used with a non-linear optimisation algorithm to find the maximum em a posteriori probability values of the unknown variables. The resulting models are shown to compare well with the current operational model when visualised in the target space.
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We studied the relationship between the decline in sensitivity that occurs with eccentricity for stimuli of different spatial scale defined by either luminance (LM) or contrast (CM) modulation. We show that the detectability of CM stimuli declines with eccentricity in a spatial frequency-dependent manner, and that the rate of sensitivity decline for CM stimuli is roughly that expected from their 1st order carriers, except, possibly, at finer scales. Using an equivalent noise paradigm, we investigated the possible reasons for why the foveal sensitivity for detecting LM and CM stimuli differs as well as the reason why the detectability of 1st order stimuli declines with eccentricity. We show the former can be modeled by an increase in internal noise whereas the latter involves both an increase in internal noise and a loss of efficiency. To encompass both the threshold and suprathreshold transfer properties of peripheral vision, we propose a model in terms of the contrast gain of the underlying mechanisms.
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Poor water solubility leads to low dissolution rate and consequently, it can limit bioavailability. Solid dispersions, where the drug is dispersed into an inert, hydrophilic polymer matrix can enhance drug dissolution. Solid dispersions were prepared using phenacetin and phenylbutazone as model drugs with polyethylene glycol (PEG) 8000 (carrier), by melt fusion method. Phenacetin and phenylbutazone displayed an increase in the dissolution rate when formulated as solid dispersions as compared with their physical mixture and drug alone counterparts. Characterisation of the solid dispersions was performed using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). DSC studies revealed that drugs were present in the amorphous form within the solid dispersions. FTIR spectra for the solid dispersions of drugs suggested that there was a lack of interaction between PEG 8000 and the drug. However, the physical mixture of phenacetin with PEG 8000 indicated the formation of hydrogen bond between phenacetin and the carrier. Permeability of phenacetin and phenylbutazone was higher for solid dispersions as compared with that of drug alone across Caco-2 cell monolayers. Permeability studies have shown that both phenacetin and phenylbutazone, and their solid dispersions can be categorised as well-absorbed compounds.
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Adapting to blurred or sharpened images alters perceived blur of a focused image (M. A. Webster, M. A. Georgeson, & S. M. Webster, 2002). We asked whether blur adaptation results in (a) renormalization of perceived focus or (b) a repulsion aftereffect. Images were checkerboards or 2-D Gaussian noise, whose amplitude spectra had (log-log) slopes from -2 (strongly blurred) to 0 (strongly sharpened). Observers adjusted the spectral slope of a comparison image to match different test slopes after adaptation to blurred or sharpened images. Results did not show repulsion effects but were consistent with some renormalization. Test blur levels at and near a blurred or sharpened adaptation level were matched by more focused slopes (closer to 1/f) but with little or no change in appearance after adaptation to focused (1/f) images. A model of contrast adaptation and blur coding by multiple-scale spatial filters predicts these blur aftereffects and those of Webster et al. (2002). A key proposal is that observers are pre-adapted to natural spectra, and blurred or sharpened spectra induce changes in the state of adaptation. The model illustrates how norms might be encoded and recalibrated in the visual system even when they are represented only implicitly by the distribution of responses across multiple channels.
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An uptake system was developed using Caco-2 cell monolayers and the dipeptide, glycyl-[3H]L-proline, as a probe compound. Glycyl-[3H]L-proline uptake was via the di-/tripeptide transport system (DTS) and, exhibited concentration-, pH- and temperature-dependency. Dipeptides inhibited uptake of the probe, and the design of the system allowed competitors to be ranked against one another with respect to affinity for the transporter. The structural features required to ensure or increase interaction with the DTS were defined by studying the effect of a series of glycyl-L-proline and angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE)-inhibitor (SQ-29852) analogues on the uptake of the probe. The SQ-29852 structure was divided into six domains (A-F) and competitors were grouped into series depending on structural variations within specific regions. Domain A was found to prefer a hydrophobic function, such as a phenyl group, and was intolerant to positive charges and H+ -acceptors and donors. SQ-29852 analogues were more tolerant of substitutions in the C domain, compared to glycyl-L-proline analogues, suggesting that interactions along the length of the SQ-29852 molecule may override the effects of substitutions in the C domain. SQ-29852 analogues showed a preference for a positive function, such as an amine group in this region, but dipeptide structures favoured an uncharged substitution. Lipophilic substituents in domain D increased affinity of SQ-29852 analogues with the DTS. A similar effect was observed for ACE-NEP inhibitor analogues. Domain E, corresponding to the carboxyl group was found to be tolerant of esterification for SQ-29852 analogues but not for dipeptides. Structural features which may increase interaction for one series of compounds, may not have the same effect for another series, indicating that the presence of multiple recognition sites on a molecule may override the deleterious effect of anyone change. Modifying current, poorly absorbed peptidomimetic structures to fit the proposed hypothetical model may improve oral bioavailability by increasing affinity for the DTS. The stereochemical preference of the transporter was explored using four series of compounds (SQ-29852, lysylproline, alanylproline and alanylalanine enantiomers). The L, L stereochemistry was the preferred conformation for all four series, agreeing with previous studies. However, D, D enantiomers were shown in some cases to be substrates for the DTS, although exhibiting a lower affinity than their L, L counterparts. All the ACE-inhibitors and β-lactam antibiotics investigated, produced a degree of inhibition of the probe, and thus show some affinity for the DTS. This contrasts with previous reports that found several ACE inhibitors to be absorbed via a passive process, thus suggesting that compounds are capable of binding to the transporter site and inhibiting the probe without being translocated into the cell. This was also shown to be the case for oligodeoxynucleotide conjugated to a lipophilic group (vitamin E), and highlights the possibility that other orally administered drug candidates may exert non-specific effects on the DTS and possibly have a nutritional impact. Molecular modelling of selected ACE-NEP inhibitors revealed that the three carbonyl functions can be oriented in a similar direction, and this conformation was found to exist in a local energy-minimised state, indicating that the carbonyls may possibly be involved in hydrogen-bond formation with the binding site of the DTS.
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This thesis investigates the soil-pipeline interactions associated with the operation of large-diameter chilled gas pipelines in Britain, these are frost/pipe heave and ground cracking. The investigation was biased towards the definition of the mechanism of ground cracking and, the parameters which influence its generation and subsequent development, especially its interaction with frost heave. The study involved a literature review, questionnaire, large-scale test and small-scale laboratory model experiments. The literature review concentrated on soil-pipeline interactions and frost action, with frost/pipe heave often reported but ground cracking was seldom reported. A questionnaire was circulated within British Gas to gain further information on these interactions. The replies indicated that if frost/pipe heave was reported, ground cracking was also likely to be observed. These soil-pipeline interactions were recorded along 19% of pipelines in the survey and were more likely along the larger diameter, higher flow pipelines. A large-scale trial along a 900 mm pipeline was undertaken to assess the soil thermal, hydraulic and stress regimes, together with pipe and ground movements. Results indicated that cracking occurred intermittently along the pipeline during periods of rapid frost/pipe heave and ground movement and, that frozen annulus growth produced a ground surface profile was approximated by a normal probability distribution curve. This curve indicates maximum tensile strain directly over the pipe centre. Finally a small-scale laboratory model was operated to further define the ground cracking mechanism. Ground cracking was observed at small upward ground surface movement, and with continued movement the ground crack increased in width and depth. At the end of the experiments internal soil failure planes slanting upwards and away from the frozen annulus were noted. The suggested mechanism for ground cracking involved frozen annulus growth producing tensile strain in the overlying unfrozen soil, which when sufficient produced a crack.
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In this paper a Markov chain based analytical model is proposed to evaluate the slotted CSMA/CA algorithm specified in the MAC layer of IEEE 802.15.4 standard. The analytical model consists of two two-dimensional Markov chains, used to model the state transition of an 802.15.4 device, during the periods of a transmission and between two consecutive frame transmissions, respectively. By introducing the two Markov chains a small number of Markov states are required and the scalability of the analytical model is improved. The analytical model is used to investigate the impact of the CSMA/CA parameters, the number of contending devices, and the data frame size on the network performance in terms of throughput and energy efficiency. It is shown by simulations that the proposed analytical model can accurately predict the performance of slotted CSMA/CA algorithm for uplink, downlink and bi-direction traffic, with both acknowledgement and non-acknowledgement modes.
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In examining bank cost efficiency in banking inclusion of risk-taking of banks is very important. In this paper we depart from the standard modeling approach and view risk intimately related to the technology. Thus, instead of controlling for risk by viewing them as covariates in the standard cost function we argue that the technology differs with risk, thereby meaning that the parameters of the parametric cost function changes with risk in a fully flexible manner. This is accomplished by viewing the parameters of the cost function as nonparametric functions of risk. We also control for country-specific effects in a fully flexible manner by using them as arguments of the nonparametric functions along with the risk variable. The resulting cost function then becomes semiparametric. The standard parametric model becomes a special case of our semiparametric model. We use the above modeling approach for banks in the EU countries. Actually, European financial integration is seen as a stepping stone for the development of a competitive single EU market that promotes efficiency and increases consumer welfare, changing the risk profile of the European banks. Particularly, financial integration allows more risk diversification and permits banks to use more advanced risk management instruments and systems, however it has at the same time increased the probability of systematic risks. Financial integration has increased the risk of contagion and changed its nature and scope. Consequently the bank’s risk seems to be an important issue to be investigated.