An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

Educational spillovers and parental migration

Impacts of parental emigration on educational outcomes of children and, in turn, the children’s influence on peers are theoretically ambiguous. Using novel data I collected on migration experiences and timing, family background and school performance of lower secondary pupils in Poland, I analyse empirically whether children with parents working abroad (PWA) influence school performance of their classmates. Migration is mostly temporary in nature, with one parent engaging in employment abroad. As many as 63% of migrant parents have vocational qualifications, 29% graduated from high school, 4% have no qualifications and the remaining 4% graduated from university. Almost 18% of all children are affected by parental migration and, on average, 6.5% of pupils in a class have a parent abroad. Perhaps surprisingly, estimates suggest that pupils benefit from the presence of PWA classmates. PWA pupils whose parents graduated from high school exert the biggest positive impact on their classroom peers. Further, classmates are differently affected by PWA children; those who themselves experienced migration within the family benefit most. This positive effect is likely driven by the student level interactions or increased teachers’ commitment to classes with students from migrant families.

Dynamic Relational Contracts under Complete Information

This paper considers a long-term relationship between two agents who both undertake a costly action or investment that together produces a joint benefit. Agents have an opportunity to expropriate some of the joint benefit for their own use. Two cases are considered: (i) where agents are risk neutral and are subject to limited liability constraints and (ii) where agents are risk averse, have quasi-linear preferences in consumption and actions but where limited liability constraints do not bind. The question asked is how to structure the investments and division of the surplus over time so as to avoid expropriation. In the risk-neutral case, there may be an initial phase in which one agent overinvests and the other underinvests. However, both actions and surplus converge monotonically to a stationary state in which there is no overinvestment and surplus is at its maximum subject to the constraints. In the risk-averse case, there is no overinvestment. For this case, we establish that dynamics may or may not be monotonic depending on whether or not it is possible to sustain a first-best allocation. If the first-best allocation is not sustainable, then there is a trade-off between risk sharing and surplus maximization. In general, surplus will not be at its constrained maximum even in the long run.

Bilateral oligopoly and quantity competition

Bilateral oligopoly is a strategic market game with two commodities, allowing strategic behavior on both sides of the market. When the number of buyers is large, such a game approximates a game of quantity competition played by sellers. We present examples which show that this is not typically a Cournot game. Rather, we introduce an alternative game of quantity competition (the market share game) and, appealing to results in the literature on contests, show that this yields the same equilibria as the many-buyer limit of bilateral oligopoly, under standard assumptions on costs and preferences. We also show that the market share and Cournot games have the same equilibria if and only if the price elasticity of the latter is one. These results lead to necessary and sufficient conditions for the Cournot game to be a good approximation to bilateral oligopoly with many buyers and to an ordering of total output when they are not satisfied.

US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?

Most of the literature estimating DSGE models for monetary policy analysis ignores fiscal policy and assumes that monetary policy follows a simple rule. In this paper we allow both fiscal and monetary policy to be described by rules and/or optimal policy which are subject to switches over time. We find that US monetary and fiscal policy have often been in conflict, and that it is relatively rare that we observe the benign policy combination of an conservative monetary policy paired with a debt stabilizing fiscal policy. In a series of counterfactuals, a conservative central bank following a time-consistent fiscal policy leader would come close to mimicking the cooperative Ramsey policy. However, if policy makers cannot credibly commit to such a regime, monetary accommodation of the prevailing fiscal regime may actually be welfare improving.

Administering brief motivational interventions to young men: Results from a pilot census transmissible study among 19 year-old francophone Swiss men.

AIMS - To pilot the implementation of brief motivational intervention (BMI) among conscripts, and to test the effectiveness of BMI in young men voluntarily showing up for a single face-to-face alcohol BMI session. Participants were conscripts attending the army recruitment process in Lausanne. This process is mandatory for all Swiss males at age 19 and Lausanne serves all francophone Swiss men. METHODS - Of 3'227 young men that were seen during the army recruitment procedures, 445 voluntarily showed up for a BMI and 367 were included in the study (exclusions were random and unsystematic and related to organizational aspects in the recruitment center). After an initial assessment, subjects were randomized into two groups: an immediate BMI and a 6-month delayed BMI (waiting list design). A 6-month follow-up assessment was conducted in both groups. BMI was a face-to-face 20 minutes counseling session with a psychologist trained in motivational interviewing at baseline and a telephone session for the control group at follow-up. Strategies of BMI included the exploration and evocation of a possible behavior change, importance of future change, readiness to change, and commitment to change. A filmed example of such an intervention is available in French at www.alcoologie.ch. RESULTS - All procedures are now fully implemented and working and the provision of preventive efforts found general approval by the army. 3'227 were eligible for BMI and 445 of them (13.8%) showed up for receiving a BMI. 367 were included in the study, 181 in the BMI group and 186 in the control group. More than 86% of those included were reached at follow-up. With one exception all findings on alcohol use went in the expected direction, i.e. a stronger decrease in alcohol use (or a smaller increase as for usual weekly drinking amount) in the BMI group. The risk for risky single occasion drinking (RSOD) decreased from 57% at-risk users at baseline to 50.6%, i.e. a 6.4% point decrease in the BMI group, while there was only a 0.6% point decrease (from 57.5% to 56.9%) in the control group. Moreover, the study showed that there was a likelihood of crossover effects for other substances like tobacco smoking and cannabis use. Despite these encouraging and consistent positive findings, none reached significance at conventional levels (p < 0.05). DISCUSSION - Data suggest a beneficial impact of BMI on alcohol use outcomes and potential effect on other substance use in 19-year old men attending the army recruitment and showing up voluntarily for BMI. As the main aim was to implement and test feasibility of conducting BMI in this setting none of our findings reached statistical significance. The consistency of findings across measures and substances, however, raises hope that non-significance in the present study does not mean no effect, but mainly insufficient power of this pilot study. [Authors]

Alpha beta lineage-committed thymocytes can be rescued by the gamma delta T cell receptor (TCR) in the absence of TCR beta chain.

Commitment of the alpha beta and gamma delta T cell lineages within the thymus has been studied in T cell receptor (TCR)-transgenic and TCR mutant murine strains. TCR gamma delta-transgenic or TCR beta knockout mice, both of which are unable to generate TCR alpha beta-positive T cells, develop phenotypically alpha beta-like thymocytes in significant proportions. We provide evidence that in the absence of functional TCR beta protein, the gamma delta TCR can promote the development of alpha beta-like thymocytes, which, however, do not expand significantly and do not mature into gamma delta T cells. These results show that commitment to the alpha beta lineage can be determined independently of the isotype of the TCR, and suggest that alpha beta versus gamma delta T cell lineage commitment is principally regulated by mechanisms distinct from TCR-mediated selection. To accommodate our data and those reported previously on the effect of TCR gamma and delta gene rearrangements on alpha beta T cell development, we propose a model in which lineage commitment occurs independently of TCR gene rearrangement.

Communication during brief intervention, intention to change, and outcome.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the relationship between patient's intention to change regarding future alcohol consumption following brief alcohol intervention (BAI) and changes in alcohol consumption 12-months later and the communication characteristics between patient and counselor during BAI. DESIGN, SETTING AND SUBJECTS: Data from 367 patients (experimental arm) of a pragmatic randomized controlled trial were used to assess the effectiveness of BAI among hazardous drinkers attending an Emergency Department (Lausanne University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland). Alcohol outcome measures at baseline and 12 months follow-up included usual number of drinks per week, monthly frequency of heavy episodic drinking (5 or more standard drinks for men; 4 or more for women), and the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) score. In addition, the communication characteristics between patient and counselor were analyzed via tape recordings using the Motivational Interviewing Skill Code (MISC) from 97 participants. Patient readiness and importance to change on a 10-point Likert scale (readiness/importance to change ruler) was asked during BAI, and patient intention to change alcohol consumption (yes/no) was asked at the last step. Differences in alcohol outcome at follow-up between the 367 patients who did or did not have an intention to change consumption at baseline were compared, as were differences between these two groups in communication characteristics for the 97 who completed tape recordings. RESULTS: Patients with an intention to decrease alcohol consumption reduced alcohol use and related problems more often, and reported higher levels of importance and readiness to change than did their counterparts. Analyses of MISC-coded data showed a significantly higher use of MI-consistent skills among those with a moderation intention, but no group differences on the 8 other counselor communication skills measures were found. Analyses of patient speech during the intervention indicated that those with an intention to change their alcohol consumption significantly more often self-explored personal ambivalence towards alcohol, expressed more intensely their ability, commitment, desire, need and reason to change their alcohol use than did those in the no decrease group. CONCLUSIONS: The intention expressed by hazardous drinkers when concluding BAI is associated with both patient change talk during BAI and drinking outcome 12 months later, but is mainly independent of counselor communication skills. This intention may be an important clinical indicator of which hazardous drinkers are most likely to improve after BAI.

Mutations in the cdc10 start gene of Schizosaccharomyces pombe implicate the region of homology between cdc10 and SWI6 as important for p85cdc10 function.

The cdc10 gene of the fission yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe is required for traverse of start and commitment to the mitotic cell division cycle rather than other fates. The product of the gene, p85cdc10, is a component of a factor that is thought to be involved in regulating the transcription of genes that are required for DNA synthesis. In order to define regions of the p85cdc10 protein that are important for its function a fine structure genetic map of the cdc10 gene was derived and the sequences of 13 cdc10ts mutants determined. The 13 mutants tested define eight alleles. Eleven of the mutants are located in the region that contains the two copies of the cdc10/SWI6 repeat motif, implicating it as important for p85cdc10 function.

Implantació del distintiu de garantia de qualitat ambiental als establiments de turisme rural d'influència al Parc del Garraf

El present projecte té com a objecte d’estudi l’anàlisi de la situació ambiental en que es troben els ETR de l’àrea d’influència del Parc del Garraf (PG). En una primera fase, s’inventarien i analitzen els 12 ETR més propers als límits del sistema natural del PG, Parc d’Olèrdola i Foix a partir d’una ecofitxa de criteris ambientals d’àmbit general. Posteriorment, s’estudia la viabilitat d’implantació del Distintiu de Garantia de Qualitat Ambiental (DGQA) en els 6 ETR pilot escollits a partir d’una segona ecofitxa creada a partir dels criteris del distintiu. D’aquest detallat estudi s’extreuen relacions interessants com per exemple, que els ETR més aïllats del nucli urbà fan servir el doble de sistemes per obtenir energia que els establiments ubicats al recinte urbà i que actualment, el preu segueix estant més associat a confort que no pas a compromís ambiental. Finalment, s’elaboren unes propostes de millora i els pressupostos associats per que aquests ETR puguin complir les exigències del distintiu.

The Design and efficiency of loyalty rewards

The goal of this paper is to reexamine the optimal design and efficiency of loyalty rewards in markets for final consumption goods. While the literature has emphasized the role of loyalty rewards as endogenous switching costs (which distort the efficient allocation of consumers), in this paper I analyze the ability of alternative designs to foster consumer participation and increase total surplus. First, the efficiency of loyalty rewards depend on their specific design. A commitment to the price of repeat purchases can involve substantial efficiency gains by reducing price-cost margins. However, discount policies imply higher future regular prices and are likely to reduce total surplus. Second, firms may prefer to set up inefficient rewards (discounts), especially in those circumstances where a commitment to the price of repeat purchases triggers Coasian dynamics.

International Olympic Committee consensus statement on thermoregulatory and altitude challenges for high-level athletes

Challenging environmental conditions, including heat and humidity, cold, and altitude, pose particular risks to the health of Olympic and other high-level athletes. As a further commitment to athlete safety, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) Medical Commission convened a panel of experts to review the scientific evidence base, reach consensus, and underscore practical safety guidelines and new research priorities regarding the unique environmental challenges Olympic and other international-level athletes face. For non-aquatic events, external thermal load is dependent on ambient temperature, humidity, wind speed and solar radiation, while clothing and protective gear can measurably increase thermal strain and prompt premature fatigue. In swimmers, body heat loss is the direct result of convection at a rate that is proportional to the effective water velocity around the swimmer and the temperature difference between the skin and the water. Other cold exposure and conditions, such as during Alpine skiing, biathlon and other sliding sports, facilitate body heat transfer to the environment, potentially leading to hypothermia and/or frostbite; although metabolic heat production during these activities usually increases well above the rate of body heat loss, and protective clothing and limited exposure time in certain events reduces these clinical risks as well. Most athletic events are held at altitudes that pose little to no health risks; and training exposures are typically brief and well-tolerated. While these and other environment-related threats to performance and safety can be lessened or averted by implementing a variety of individual and event preventative measures, more research and evidence-based guidelines and recommendations are needed. In the mean time, the IOC Medical Commission and International Sport Federations have implemented new guidelines and taken additional steps to mitigate risk even further.

Civil war and foreign influence

We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely to induce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.

Development and selection of NKT cells.

NKT cells utilize a restricted alphabeta TCR repertoire that recognizes glycolipids in association with CD1d. The recent development of fluorescent CD1d tetramers loaded with the synthetic glycolipid alpha-galactosyl-ceramide has led to a clearer definition of NKT-cell subsets as well as important insights into their developmental origin. As many as four subsets may exist, differing in NK1.1 expression, TCR repertoire and dependence on CD1d and various glycolipids for development. Two different lineage-commitment models have been proposed, with most evidence favoring a byproduct of conventional-T-cell development.

Control of schistosomiasis transmission

Despite the success of control programmes, schistosomiasis is still a serious public health problem in the world. More than 70 countries where 200 million individuals are evaluated to be infected of a total 600 million at risk. Though there have been important local success in the control of transmission, globally the infection has increased. Economic constrains in developing countries, environmental changes associated with migration and water resources development have been blocking the progress. The main objective of schistosomiasis control is to achieve reduction of disease due to schistosomiasis. We discussed the control measures like: health education, diagnosis and chemotherapy, safe water supplies, sanitation and snail control. We emphasized the need to give priority to school-age children and the importance of integrating the measures of control into locally available systems of health care. The control of schistosomiasis is directly related to the capacity of the preventive health services of an endemic country. The strategy of control requires long-term commitment from the international to the local level.