Computational analysis of the genetic and environmental contributions to disease-related human phenotypes: From predicting adverse lipid response of HIV patients receiving antiretroviral therapy to genome-wide association studies of cardiovascular and lipid related disorders

Genetic variants influence the risk to develop certain diseases or give rise to differences in drug response. Recent progresses in cost-effective, high-throughput genome-wide techniques, such as microarrays measuring Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs), have facilitated genotyping of large clinical and population cohorts. Combining the massive genotypic data with measurements of phenotypic traits allows for the determination of genetic differences that explain, at least in part, the phenotypic variations within a population. So far, models combining the most significant variants can only explain a small fraction of the variance, indicating the limitations of current models. In particular, researchers have only begun to address the possibility of interactions between genotypes and the environment. Elucidating the contributions of such interactions is a difficult task because of the large number of genetic as well as possible environmental factors.In this thesis, I worked on several projects within this context. My first and main project was the identification of possible SNP-environment interactions, where the phenotypes were serum lipid levels of patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) treated with antiretroviral therapy. Here the genotypes consisted of a limited set of SNPs in candidate genes relevant for lipid transport and metabolism. The environmental variables were the specific combinations of drugs given to each patient over the treatment period. My work explored bioinformatic and statistical approaches to relate patients' lipid responses to these SNPs, drugs and, importantly, their interactions. The goal of this project was to improve our understanding and to explore the possibility of predicting dyslipidemia, a well-known adverse drug reaction of antiretroviral therapy. Specifically, I quantified how much of the variance in lipid profiles could be explained by the host genetic variants, the administered drugs and SNP-drug interactions and assessed the predictive power of these features on lipid responses. Using cross-validation stratified by patients, we could not validate our hypothesis that models that select a subset of SNP-drug interactions in a principled way have better predictive power than the control models using "random" subsets. Nevertheless, all models tested containing SNP and/or drug terms, exhibited significant predictive power (as compared to a random predictor) and explained a sizable proportion of variance, in the patient stratified cross-validation context. Importantly, the model containing stepwise selected SNP terms showed higher capacity to predict triglyceride levels than a model containing randomly selected SNPs. Dyslipidemia is a complex trait for which many factors remain to be discovered, thus missing from the data, and possibly explaining the limitations of our analysis. In particular, the interactions of drugs with SNPs selected from the set of candidate genes likely have small effect sizes which we were unable to detect in a sample of the present size (<800 patients).In the second part of my thesis, I performed genome-wide association studies within the Cohorte Lausannoise (CoLaus). I have been involved in several international projects to identify SNPs that are associated with various traits, such as serum calcium, body mass index, two-hour glucose levels, as well as metabolic syndrome and its components. These phenotypes are all related to major human health issues, such as cardiovascular disease. I applied statistical methods to detect new variants associated with these phenotypes, contributing to the identification of new genetic loci that may lead to new insights into the genetic basis of these traits. This kind of research will lead to a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying these pathologies, a better evaluation of disease risk, the identification of new therapeutic leads and may ultimately lead to the realization of "personalized" medicine.

RiskDiff: A web tool for the analysis of the difference due to risk and demographic factors for incidence or mortality data.

Background Analysing the observed differences for incidence or mortality of a particular disease between two different situations (such as time points, geographical areas, gender or other social characteristics) can be useful both for scientific or administrative purposes. From an epidemiological and public health point of view, it is of great interest to assess the effect of demographic factors in these observed differences in order to elucidate the effect of the risk of developing a disease or dying from it. The method proposed by Bashir and Estève, which splits the observed variation into three components: risk, population structure and population size is a common choice at practice. Results A web-based application, called RiskDiff has been implemented (available at http://rht.iconcologia.net/riskdiff.htm webcite), to perform this kind of statistical analyses, providing text and graphical summaries. Code from the implemented functions in R is also provided. An application to cancer mortality data from Catalonia is used for illustration. Conclusions Combining epidemiological with demographical factors is crucial for analysing incidence or mortality from a disease, especially if the population pyramids show substantial differences. The tool implemented may serve to promote and divulgate the use of this method to give advice for epidemiologic interpretation and decision making in public health.

Analysis of meiotic recombination in 22q11.2, a region that frequently undergoes deletions and duplications

Background: The 22q11.2 deletion syndrome is the most frequent genomic disorder with an estimated frequency of 1/4000 live births. The majority of patients (90%) have the same deletion of 3 Mb (Typically Deleted Region, TDR) that results from aberrant recombination at meiosis between region specific low-copy repeats (LCRs). Methods: As a first step towards the characterization of recombination rates and breakpoints within the 22q11.2 region we have constructed a high resolution recombination breakpoint map based on pedigree analysis and a population-based historical recombination map based on LD analysis. Results: Our pedigree map allows the location of recombination breakpoints with a high resolution (potential recombination hotspots), and this approach has led to the identification of 5 breakpoint segments of 50 kb or less (8.6 kb the smallest), that coincide with historical hotspots. It has been suggested that aberrant recombination leading to deletion (and duplication) is caused by low rates of Allelic Homologous Recombination (AHR) within the affected region. However, recombination rate estimates for 22q11.2 region show that neither average recombination rates in the 22q11.2 region or within LCR22-2 (the LCR implicated in most deletions and duplications), are significantly below chromosome 22 averages. Furthermore, LCR22-2, the repeat most frequently implicated in rearrangements, is also the LCR22 with the highest levels of AHR. In addition, we find recombination events in the 22q11.2 region to cluster within families. Within this context, the same chromosome recombines twice in one family; first by AHR and in the next generation by NAHR resulting in an individual affected with the del22q11.2 syndrome. Conclusion: We show in the context of a first high resolution pedigree map of the 22q11.2 region that NAHR within LCR22 leading to duplications and deletions cannot be explained exclusively under a hypothesis of low AHR rates. In addition, we find that AHR recombination events cluster within families. If normal and aberrant recombination are mechanistically related, the fact that LCR22s undergo frequent AHR and that we find familial differences in recombination rates within the 22q11.2 region would have obvious health-related implications.

'Herbal' but potentially hazardous: an analysis of the constituents and smoke emissions of tobacco-free waterpipe products and the air quality in the cafes where they are served

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on the composition and smoke emissions of 'herbal' shisha products and the air quality of establishments where they are smoked. METHODS: Three studies of 'herbal' shisha were conducted: (1) samples of 'herbal' shisha products were chemically analysed; (2) 'herbal' and tobacco shisha were burned in a waterpipe smoking machine and main and sidestream smoke analysed by standard methods and (3) the air quality of six waterpipe cafes was assessed by measurement of CO, particulate and nicotine vapour content. RESULTS: We found considerable variation in heavy metal content between the three products sampled, one being particularly high in lead, chromium, nickel and arsenic. A similar pattern emerged for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Smoke emission analyses indicated that toxic byproducts produced by the combustion of 'herbal' shisha were equivalent or greater than those produced by tobacco shisha. The results of our air quality assessment demonstrated that mean PM2.5 levels and CO content were significantly higher in waterpipe establishments compared to a casino where cigarette smoking was permitted. Nicotine vapour was detected in one of the waterpipe cafes. CONCLUSIONS: 'Herbal' shisha products tested contained toxic trace metals and PAHs levels equivalent to, or in excess of, that found in cigarettes. Their mainstream and sidestream smoke emissions contained carcinogens equivalent to, or in excess of, those of tobacco products. The content of the air in the waterpipe cafes tested was potentially hazardous. These data, in aggregate, suggest that smoking 'herbal' shisha may well be dangerous to health.

Dissatisfaction of hospital patients, their relatives, and friends: Analysis of accounts collected in a complaints center.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to analyze complaints of patients, their relatives, and friends who consulted a complaints center based (Espace Patients & Proches (EPP)) in a hospital so as to better understand the reasons that motivated them and their underlying expectations. METHODS: This study was based on the analysis of written accounts of the 253 situations that occurred during the first year of operation of the EPP. The accounts were analyzed qualitatively using an inductive, thematic analytic approach. RESULTS: We identified 372 different types of complaints and 28 main analytic themes. Five clustered themes emerged from the analysis of the interconnections among the core themes: (1) interpersonal relationship (N=160-the number of accounts including a complaint related to this general theme); (2) technical aspects of care (N=106); (3) health-care institution (N=69); (4) billing and insurance; (5) access to information (N=13). CONCLUSION: The main reason for patients, their relatives, and friends going to EPP was related to the quality of the interpersonal relationship with health-care professionals. Such complaints were markedly more frequent than those concerning technical aspects of care. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: These results raise important questions concerning changing patient expectations as well as how hospitals integrate complaints into the process of quality health care.

The Outcry of the Periphery? An Analysis of Ticino's No to Immigration

When the popular initiative "against mass immigration" was accepted by the Swiss people and cantons on 9 February 2014, Ticino had by far the highest approval rate. The Italian-speaking canton thus once more confirmed its singular position, assumed since the 1990s, on popular votes regarding immigration and foreign policy. This seems to be indicative of wider crises and changes in both the economic and political spheres that have favoured the emergence of a political opposition between centre and periphery. The results of a survey among 1400 citizens of Ticino after the vote of 9 February confirm this. In essence, on top of the question of immigration, the vote was influenced by a fearful perception of Ticino as a "double periphery" vis-à-vis both Berne and Lombardy.

The inequality trap. A comparative analysis of social spending between 1880 and 1933

[spa] Utilizando dos indicadores alternativos de redistribución –las transferencias sociales y el gasto social- durante el periodo de tiempo comprendido entre 1880 y 1933, y utilizando dos indicadores alternativos de desigualdad –el porcentaje de explotaciones agrarias no familiares y los top income shares-, este papel muestra que, al contrario de lo que muchos estudios sobre los origines del Estado del Bienestar suelen sugerir, la desigualdad no favoreció el desarrollo de la política social ni siquiera en sus etapas iniciales. Ello significa que la política social se desarrolló más rápidamente en los países que previamente ya eran más igualitarios, lo que sugiere que los países con más desigualdad se encontraban en una especie de trampa de la desigualdad, donde la desigualdad en si misma fue uno de los obstáculos a la redistribución.

The inequality trap. A comparative analysis of social spending between 1880 and 1933

[spa] Utilizando dos indicadores alternativos de redistribución –las transferencias sociales y el gasto social- durante el periodo de tiempo comprendido entre 1880 y 1933, y utilizando dos indicadores alternativos de desigualdad –el porcentaje de explotaciones agrarias no familiares y los top income shares-, este papel muestra que, al contrario de lo que muchos estudios sobre los origines del Estado del Bienestar suelen sugerir, la desigualdad no favoreció el desarrollo de la política social ni siquiera en sus etapas iniciales. Ello significa que la política social se desarrolló más rápidamente en los países que previamente ya eran más igualitarios, lo que sugiere que los países con más desigualdad se encontraban en una especie de trampa de la desigualdad, donde la desigualdad en si misma fue uno de los obstáculos a la redistribución.

Clinical determinants of early parasitological response to ACTs in African patients with uncomplicated falciparum malaria: a literature review and meta-analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum has emerged in the Greater Mekong sub-region and poses a major global public health threat. Slow parasite clearance is a key clinical manifestation of reduced susceptibility to artemisinin. This study was designed to establish the baseline values for clearance in patients from Sub-Saharan African countries with uncomplicated malaria treated with artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). METHODS: A literature review in PubMed was conducted in March 2013 to identify all prospective clinical trials (uncontrolled trials, controlled trials and randomized controlled trials), including ACTs conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa, between 1960 and 2012. Individual patient data from these studies were shared with the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) and pooled using an a priori statistical analytical plan. Factors affecting early parasitological response were investigated using logistic regression with study sites fitted as a random effect. The risk of bias in included studies was evaluated based on study design, methodology and missing data. RESULTS: In total, 29,493 patients from 84 clinical trials were included in the analysis, treated with artemether-lumefantrine (n = 13,664), artesunate-amodiaquine (n = 11,337) and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (n = 4,492). The overall parasite clearance rate was rapid. The parasite positivity rate (PPR) decreased from 59.7 % (95 % CI: 54.5-64.9) on day 1 to 6.7 % (95 % CI: 4.8-8.7) on day 2 and 0.9 % (95 % CI: 0.5-1.2) on day 3. The 95th percentile of observed day 3 PPR was 5.3 %. Independent risk factors predictive of day 3 positivity were: high baseline parasitaemia (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.16 (95 % CI: 1.08-1.25); per 2-fold increase in parasite density, P <0.001); fever (>37.5 °C) (AOR = 1.50 (95 % CI: 1.06-2.13), P = 0.022); severe anaemia (AOR = 2.04 (95 % CI: 1.21-3.44), P = 0.008); areas of low/moderate transmission setting (AOR = 2.71 (95 % CI: 1.38-5.36), P = 0.004); and treatment with the loose formulation of artesunate-amodiaquine (AOR = 2.27 (95 % CI: 1.14-4.51), P = 0.020, compared to dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine). CONCLUSIONS: The three ACTs assessed in this analysis continue to achieve rapid early parasitological clearance across the sites assessed in Sub-Saharan Africa. A threshold of 5 % day 3 parasite positivity from a minimum sample size of 50 patients provides a more sensitive benchmark in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to the current recommended threshold of 10 % to trigger further investigation of artemisinin susceptibility.

Cost-minimization analysis of three decision strategies for cardiac revascularization : results of the "suspected CAD"cohort of the european cardiovascular magnetic resonance registry.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery disease (CAD) continues to be one of the top public health burden. Perfusion cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is generally accepted to detect CAD, while data on its cost effectiveness are scarce. Therefore, the goal of the study was to compare the costs of a CMR-guided strategy vs two invasive strategies in a large CMR registry. METHODS: In 3'647 patients with suspected CAD of the EuroCMR-registry (59 centers/18 countries) costs were calculated for diagnostic examinations (CMR, X-ray coronary angiography (CXA) with/without FFR), revascularizations, and complications during a 1-year follow-up. Patients with ischemia-positive CMR underwent an invasive CXA and revascularization at the discretion of the treating physician (=CMR + CXA-strategy). In the hypothetical invasive arm, costs were calculated for an initial CXA and a FFR in vessels with ≥50 % stenoses (=CXA + FFR-strategy) and the same proportion of revascularizations and complications were applied as in the CMR + CXA-strategy. In the CXA-only strategy, costs included those for CXA and for revascularizations of all ≥50 % stenoses. To calculate the proportion of patients with ≥50 % stenoses, the stenosis-FFR relationship from the literature was used. Costs of the three strategies were determined based on a third payer perspective in 4 healthcare systems. RESULTS: Revascularizations were performed in 6.2 %, 4.5 %, and 12.9 % of all patients, patients with atypical chest pain (n = 1'786), and typical angina (n = 582), respectively; whereas complications (=all-cause death and non-fatal infarction) occurred in 1.3 %, 1.1 %, and 1.5 %, respectively. The CMR + CXA-strategy reduced costs by 14 %, 34 %, 27 %, and 24 % in the German, UK, Swiss, and US context, respectively, when compared to the CXA + FFR-strategy; and by 59 %, 52 %, 61 % and 71 %, respectively, versus the CXA-only strategy. In patients with typical angina, cost savings by CMR + CXA vs CXA + FFR were minimal in the German (2.3 %), intermediate in the US and Swiss (11.6 % and 12.8 %, respectively), and remained substantial in the UK (18.9 %) systems. Sensitivity analyses proved the robustness of results. CONCLUSIONS: A CMR + CXA-strategy for patients with suspected CAD provides substantial cost reduction compared to a hypothetical CXA + FFR-strategy in patients with low to intermediate disease prevalence. However, in the subgroup of patients with typical angina, cost savings were only minimal to moderate.

External Validation of the Prestroke Independence, Sex, Age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (ISAN) Score for Predicting Stroke-Associated Pneumonia in the Athens Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The Prestroke Independence, Sex, Age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (ISAN) score was developed recently for predicting stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP), one of the most common complications after stroke. The aim of the present study was to externally validate the ISAN score. METHODS: Data included in the Athens Stroke Registry between June 1992 and December 2011 were used for this analysis. Inclusion criteria were the availability of all ISAN score variables (prestroke independence, sex, age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score). Receiver operating characteristic curves and linear regression analyses were used to determine the discriminatory power of the score and to assess the correlation between actual and predicted pneumonia in the study population. Separate analyses were performed for patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). RESULTS: The analysis included 3204 patients (AIS: 2732, ICH: 472). The ISAN score demonstrated excellent discrimination in patients with AIS (area under the curve [AUC]: .83 [95% confidence interval {CI}: .81-.85]). In the ICH group, the score was less effective (AUC: .69 [95% CI: .63-.74]). Higher-risk groups of ISAN score were associated with an increased relative risk of SAP; risk increase was more prominent in the AIS population. Predicted pneumonia correlated very well with actual pneumonia (AIS group: R(2) = .885; β-coefficient = .941, P < .001; ICH group: R(2) = .880, β-coefficient = .938, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In our external validation in the Athens Stroke Registry cohort, the ISAN score predicted SAP very accurately in AIS patients and demonstrated good discriminatory power in the ICH group. Further validation and assessment of clinical usefulness would strengthen the score's utility further.

Cost-benefit analysis of an enhanced recovery protocol for pancreaticoduodenectomy.

BACKGROUND: Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) programmes have been shown to decrease complications and hospital stay. The cost-effectiveness of such programmes has been demonstrated for colorectal surgery. This study aimed to assess the economic outcomes of a standard ERAS programme for pancreaticoduodenectomy. METHODS: ERAS for pancreaticoduodenectomy was implemented in October 2012. All consecutive patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy until October 2014 were recorded. This group was compared in terms of costs with a cohort of consecutive patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy between January 2010 and October 2012, before ERAS implementation. Preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative real costs were collected for each patient via the hospital administration. A bootstrap independent t test was used for comparison. ERAS-specific costs were integrated into the model. RESULTS: The groups were well matched in terms of demographic and surgical details. The overall complication rate was 68 per cent (50 of 74 patients) and 82 per cent (71 of 87 patients) in the ERAS and pre-ERAS groups respectively (P = 0·046). Median hospital stay was lower in the ERAS group (15 versus 19 days; P = 0·029). ERAS-specific costs were euro922 per patient. Mean total costs were euro56 083 per patient in the ERAS group and euro63 821 per patient in the pre-ERAS group (P = 0·273). The mean intensive care unit (ICU) and intermediate care costs were euro9139 and euro13 793 per patient for the ERAS and pre-ERAS groups respectively (P = 0·151). CONCLUSION: ERAS implementation for pancreaticoduodenectomy did not increase the costs in this cohort. Savings were noted in anaesthesia/operating room, medication and laboratory costs. Fewer patients in the ERAS group required an ICU stay.

Pediatric advance care planning from the perspective of health care professionals: a qualitative interview study.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric advance care planning differs from the adult setting in several aspects, including patients' diagnoses, minor age, and questionable capacity to consent. So far, research has largely neglected the professionals' perspective. AIM: We aimed to investigate the attitudes and needs of health care professionals with regard to pediatric advance care planning. DESIGN: This is a qualitative interview study with experts in pediatric end-of-life care. A qualitative content analysis was performed. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: We conducted 17 semi-structured interviews with health care professionals caring for severely ill children/adolescents, from different professions, care settings, and institutions. RESULTS: Perceived problems with pediatric advance care planning relate to professionals' discomfort and uncertainty regarding end-of-life decisions and advance directives. Conflicts may arise between physicians and non-medical care providers because both avoid taking responsibility for treatment limitations according to a minor's advance directive. Nevertheless, pediatric advance care planning is perceived as helpful by providing an action plan for everyone and ensuring that patient/parent wishes are respected. Important requirements for pediatric advance care planning were identified as follows: repeated discussions and shared decision-making with the family, a qualified facilitator who ensures continuity throughout the whole process, multi-professional conferences, as well as professional education on advance care planning. CONCLUSION: Despite a perceived need for pediatric advance care planning, several barriers to its implementation were identified. The results remain to be verified in a larger cohort of health care professionals. Future research should focus on developing and testing strategies for overcoming the existing barriers.

Towards actionable international comparisons of health system performance: expert revision of the OECD framework and quality indicators.

OBJECTIVE: To review and update the conceptual framework, indicator content and research priorities of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD) Health Care Quality Indicators (HCQI) project, after a decade of collaborative work. DESIGN: A structured assessment was carried out using a modified Delphi approach, followed by a consensus meeting, to assess the suite of HCQI for international comparisons, agree on revisions to the original framework and set priorities for research and development. SETTING: International group of countries participating to OECD projects. PARTICIPANTS: Members of the OECD HCQI expert group. RESULTS: A reference matrix, based on a revised performance framework, was used to map and assess all seventy HCQI routinely calculated by the OECD expert group. A total of 21 indicators were agreed to be excluded, due to the following concerns: (i) relevance, (ii) international comparability, particularly where heterogeneous coding practices might induce bias, (iii) feasibility, when the number of countries able to report was limited and the added value did not justify sustained effort and (iv) actionability, for indicators that were unlikely to improve on the basis of targeted policy interventions. CONCLUSIONS: The revised OECD framework for HCQI represents a new milestone of a long-standing international collaboration among a group of countries committed to building common ground for performance measurement. The expert group believes that the continuation of this work is paramount to provide decision makers with a validated toolbox to directly act on quality improvement strategies.