First-time offender, productive offender, offender with dependents: why the profile of offenders (sometimes) matters in sentencing

Should a single mother of four young children who commits theft be sentenced to a lesser sanction than a woman who commits the same crime but has no dependents? Should a billionaire philanthropist be sentenced to a lesser penalty than the average citizen for assaulting a random bystander? Should a first-time thief receive a lighter sanction than a career thief for the same theft? The relevance of an offender’s profile to sentencing is unclear and is one of the most under-researched and least coherent areas of sentencing law. Intuitively, there is some appeal in treating offenders without a criminal record, those who have made a positive contribution to society, or who have dependents more leniently than other offenders. However, to allow these considerations to mitigate penalty potentially licenses offenders to commit crime and decouples the sanction from the severity of the offense, thereby undermining the proportionality principle. This article analyzes the relevance that an offender’s profile should have in sentencing. We conclude that a lack of prior convictions should generally reduce penalty because the empirical data shows that, in relation to most offenses, first-time offenders are less likely to reoffend than recidivist offenders. The situation is more complex in relation to offenders who have made worthy social contributions. They should not be given sentencing credit for past achievements given that past good acts have no relevance to the proper objectives of sentencing and it is normally not tenable, even in a crude sense, to make an informed assessment of an individual’s overall societal contribution. However, offenders should be accorded a sentencing reduction if they have financial or physical dependents and if imprisoning them is likely to cause harm to their dependents. Conferring asentencing discount to first-time offenders and those withdependents does not license them to commit crime or unjustifiablyencroach on the proportionality principle. Rather, it recognizes thedifferent layers of the legal system and the reality that sentencinglaw should not reflexively overwhelm broader maxims of justice,including the principle that innocent people should not suffer. Thisarticle argues that fundamental legislative reform is necessary toproperly reflect the role that the profile of offenders should have inthe sentencing regime.

Characterizing problematic hypoglycaemia: iterative design and preliminary psychometric validation of the Hypoglycaemia Awareness Questionnaire (HypoA-Q)

AIMS: To design and conduct preliminary validation of a measure of hypoglycaemia awareness and problematic hypoglycaemia, the Hypoglycaemia Awareness Questionnaire.

METHODS: Exploratory and cognitive debriefing interviews were conducted with 17 adults (nine of whom were women) with Type 1 diabetes (mean ± sd age 48±10 years). Questionnaire items were modified in consultation with diabetologists/psychologists. Psychometric validation was undertaken using data from 120 adults (53 women) with Type 1 diabetes (mean ± sd age 44±16 years; 50% with clinically diagnosed impaired awareness of hypoglycaemia), who completed the following questionnaires: the Hypoglycaemia Awareness Questionnaire, the Gold score, the Clarke questionnaire and the Problem Areas in Diabetes questionnaire.

RESULTS: Iterative design resulted in 33 items eliciting answers on awareness of hypoglycaemia when awake/asleep and hypoglycaemia frequency, severity and impact (healthcare utilization). Psychometric analysis identified three subscales reflecting 'impaired awareness', 'symptom level' and 'symptom frequency'. Convergent validity was indicated by strong correlations between the impaired awareness subscale and existing measures of awareness: (Gold: rs =0.75, P<0.01; Clarke: rs =0.76, P<0.01). Divergent validity was indicated by weaker correlations with diabetes-related distress (Problem Areas in Diabetes: rs =0.25, P<0.01) and HbA1c (rs =-0.05, non-significant). The impaired awareness subscale and other items discriminated between those with impaired and intact awareness (Gold score). The impaired awareness subscale and other items contributed significantly to models explaining the occurrence of severe hypoglycaemia and hypoglycaemia when asleep.

CONCLUSIONS: This preliminary validation shows the Hypoglycaemia Awareness Questionnaire has robust face and content validity; satisfactory structure; internal reliability; convergent, divergent and known groups validity. The impaired awareness subscale and other items contribute significantly to models explaining recall of severe and nocturnal hypoglycaemia. Prospective validation, including determination of a threshold to identify impaired awareness, is now warranted.

Perceived fairness of pay among people with and without disabilities: a propensity score matched analysis of working Australians

OBJECTIVES: Equity and fairness at work are associated with a range of organizational and health outcomes. Past research suggests that workers with disabilities experience inequity in the workplace. It is difficult to conclude whether the presence of disability is the reason for perceived unfair treatment due to the possible confounding of effect estimates by other demographic or socioeconomic factors. METHODS: The data source was the Household, Income, and Labor Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey (2001-2012). Propensity for disability was calculated from logistic models including gender, age, education, country of birth, and father's occupational skill level as predictors. We then used nearest neighbor (on propensity score) matched analysis to match workers with disabilities to workers without disability. RESULTS: Results suggest that disability is independently associated with lower fairness of pay after controlling for confounding factors in the propensity score matched analysis; although results do suggest less than half a standard deviation difference, indicating small effects. Similar results were apparent in standard multivariable regression models and alternative propensity score analyses (stratification, covariate adjustment using the propensity score, and inverse probability of treatment weighting). CONCLUSIONS: Whilst neither multivariable regression nor propensity scores adjust for unmeasured confounding, and there remains the potential for other biases, similar results for the two methodological approaches to confounder adjustment provide some confidence of an independent association of disability with perceived unfairness of pay. Based on this, we suggest that the disparity in the perceived fairness of pay between people with and without disabilities may be explained by worse treatment of people with disabilities in the workplace.

A dietary guideline adherence score is positively associated with dietary biomarkers but not lipid profile in healthy children

BACKGROUND: Whether dietary indexes are associated with biomarkers of children's dietary intake is unclear. OBJECTIVE: The study aim was to examine the relations between diet quality and selected plasma biomarkers of dietary intake and serum lipid profile. METHODS: The study sample consisted of 130 children aged 4-13 y (mean ± SD: 8.6 ± 2.9 y) derived by using baseline data from an intervention study. The Dietary Guideline Index for Children and Adolescents (DGI-CA) comprises the following 11 components with age-specific criteria: 5 core food groups, whole-grain bread, reduced-fat dairy foods, discretionary foods (nutrient poor; high in saturated fat, salt, and added sugar), healthy fats/oils, water, and diet variety (possible score of 100). A higher score reflects greater compliance with dietary guidelines. Venous blood was collected for measurements of serum lipids, fatty acid composition, plasma carotenoids, lutein, lycopene, and α-tocopherol. Linear regression was used to examine the relation between DGI-CA score (independent variable) and concentrations of biomarkers by using the log-transformed variable (outcome), controlling for confounders. RESULTS: DGI-CA score was positively associated (P < 0.05) with plasma concentrations of lutein (standardized β = 0.17), α-carotene (standardized β = 0.28), β-carotene (standardized β = 0.26), and n-3 (ω-3) fatty acids (standardized β = 0.51) and inversely associated with plasma concentrations of lycopene (standardized β = -0.23) and stearic acid (18:0) (standardized β = -0.22). No association was observed between diet quality and α-tocopherol, n-6 fatty acids, or serum lipid profile (all P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Diet quality, conceptualized as adherence to national dietary guidelines, is cross-sectionally associated with plasma biomarkers of dietary exposure but not serum lipid profile. This trial was registered with the Australia New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (www.anztr.org.au) as ACTRN12609000453280.

Colorectal preOperative surgical score (CrOSS) for mortality in major colorectal surgery

BACKGROUND: Colorectal surgery carries a significant mortality risk, with reported rates of 1-6% for elective surgery and up to 22% in the emergency setting. Both clinicians and patients will benefit from being able to predict the likelihood of death before surgery. Recently, we have described and validated two risk stratification models for colorectal surgery, the Barwon Health 2012 and Association Française de Chirurgie models. However, these models are not suitable for assessment at patient's bedside. The purpose of this study is to develop a simplified preoperative model capable of predicting mortality following colorectal surgery. METHODS: The new model is termed Colorectal preOperative Surgical Score (CrOSS). The development and internal validation of CrOSS was performed using a prospectively maintained colorectal database. External validation was performed using retrospective data. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed in model development. Calibration and discrimination were used for model validation. RESULTS: There were 474 and 389 consecutive colorectal surgeries at Geelong Hospital and Western Hospital. Overall mortality rates were 5.16% and 1.03%, respectively. Significant predictors for mortality were as follows: age ≥70, urgent operation, albumin ≤30 g/L and congestive heart failure (receiver operating characteristic (ROC) = 0.870, calibration P-value = 0.937). The predicted risk of mortality was stratified according to the risk profile of 0.39-66.51%. When validated externally, CrOSS predicted mortality accurately (ROC = 0.847, calibration P-value = 0.199). CONCLUSIONS: A robust and simple preoperative model has been created to risk-stratify patients for colorectal surgery. This was successfully validated at another tertiary hospital.

Relationship between severity of obesity and mental health: an Australian community survey

Introduction
In Australia the incidence of obesity is increasing rapidly and has become a significant public health concern. In addition to the many physical consequences of obesity many studies have reported significant mental health consequences, including major depression, mood and anxiety disorders. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between severity of obesity and perceived mental health in an Australian community sample.

Methods
A cross-sectional survey design was used. A total of 118 participants, aged between 19 and 75 years with a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m2 returned a completed questionnaire. The SF-36 Health Survey, Kessler Psychological Distress Scale, Social Interaction Anxiety Scale and the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support were used.

Results
After adjusting for age, gender, perceived social support and physical health quality of life, obesity was not significantly associated with mental health quality of life (SF-36). The strongest factor influencing mental health was perceived physical health. Mediation analyses suggest that physical health mediates the relationship between obesity and mental health quality of life.

Discussion
Our findings support the view that physical health mediates the relationship between obesity and mental health. Public health interventions should focus on reducing the impact of obesity on physical health by encouraging participation in healthy lifestyles, which in turn, may improve mental wellbeing.

Heterogeneous copper concentrations in cancerous human prostate tissues

© 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Background Therapeutics that target copper for the treatment of prostate cancer are being evaluated in human clinical trials. Elevated intracellular copper is considered to sensitize prostate cancer cells to certain copper-coordination compounds, especially those with ionophoric properties. While there is compelling in vitro evidence that prostate cancer cells accumulate intracellular copper, a corresponding status for copper in patient tissues has not been corroborated. We therefore established whether copper concentrations increase in cancerous prostate tissues, and in sera, in patients throughout disease progression. Methods Human prostate tissue samples were obtained from patient prostatectomies (n=28), and together with patient-matched sera, were analyzed for copper content by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Results When grouped together, cancerous prostate tissues exhibiting moderate disease severity (Gleason Score 7) (n=10) had 1.6-fold more copper than age-matched normal tissues (n=10) (P<0.05). Those with more aggressive disease (Gleason Score 9) (n=8) had 1.8-fold more copper (P<0.05). In both disease stages however, the copper concentrations between individual samples were rather variable (0.55-3.02μg/g), with many clearly within the normal range (0.52-1.28μg/g). Additionally, we found that there was no change in serum copper concentrations in patients with either moderate or aggressive prostate cancer (Gleason Score 7 or 9), compared with reference intervals and to age-matched controls. Conclusions The heterogeneous nature of copper concentrations in cancerous prostate tissues, suggest that a small subset of patients may respond to treatments that target elevated intratumoral copper. Therefore, such approaches would likely require personalized treatment strategies. Prostate 75:1510-1517, 2015.

Fire severity and fire-induced landscape heterogeneity affect arboreal mammals in fire-prone forests

In fire-prone regions, wildfire influences spatial and temporal patterns of landscape heterogeneity. The likely impacts of climate change on the frequency and intensity of wildfire highlights the importance of understanding how fire-induced heterogeneity may affect different components of the biota. Here, we examine the influence of wildfire, as an agent of landscape heterogeneity, on the distribution of arboreal mammals in fire-prone forests in south-eastern Australia. First, we used a stratified design to examine the role of topography, and the relative influence of fire severity and fire history, on the occurrence of arboreal mammals 2-3 years after wildfire. Second, we investigated the influence of landscape context on the occurrence of arboreal mammals at severely burnt sites. Forested gullies supported a higher abundance of arboreal mammals than slopes. Fire severity was the strongest influence, with abundance lower at severely burnt than unburnt sites. The occurrence of mammals at severely burned sites was influenced by landscape context: abundance increased with increasing amount of unburnt and understorey-only burnt forest within a 1 km radius. These results support the hypothesis that unburnt forest and moist gullies can serve as refuges for fauna in the post-fire environment and assist recolonization of severely burned forest. They highlight the importance of spatial heterogeneity created by wildfire and the need to incorporate spatial aspects of fire regimes (e.g., creation and protection of refuges) for fire management in fire-prone landscapes.

Subtyping based on readiness and confidence: the identification of help-seeking profiles for gamblers accessing web-based counselling

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Problem gamblers are not a homogeneous group and recent data suggest that subtyping can improve treatment outcomes. This study administered three readiness rulers and aimed to identify subtypes of gamblers accessing a national web-based counselling service based on these rulers. METHODS: Participants were 1204 gamblers (99.4% problem gamblers) who accessed a single session of web-based counselling in Australia. Measures included three readiness rulers (importance, readiness and confidence to resist an urge to gamble), demographics and the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI). RESULTS: Gamblers reported high importance of change [mean = 9.2, standard deviation (SD) = 1.51] and readiness to change (mean = 8.86, SD = 1.84), but lower confidence to resist an urge to gamble (mean = 3.93, SD = 2.44) compared with importance and readiness. The statistical fit indices of a latent class analysis identified a four-class model. Subtype 1 was characterized by a very high readiness to change and very low confidence to resist an urge to gamble (n = 662, 55.0%) and subtype 2 reported high readiness and low confidence (n = 358, 29.7%). Subtype 3 reported moderate ratings on all three rulers (n = 139, 11.6%) and subtype 4 reported high importance of change but low readiness and confidence (n = 45, 3.7%). A multinomial logistic regression indicated that subtypes differed by gender (P < 0.001), age (P = 0.01), gambling activity (P < 0.05), preferred mode of gambling (P < 0.001) and PGSI score (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Problem gamblers in Australia who seek web-based counselling comprise four distinct subgroups based on self-reported levels of readiness to change, confidence to resist the urge to gamble and importance of change.

Positive changes in self-management and disease severity following climate therapy in people with psoriasis

The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of climate therapy on self-management in people with psoriasis. This was a prospective study of 254 adults with chronic psoriasis who participated in a 3-week climate therapy (CT) programme. The 8-scale Health Education Impact Questionnaire (heiQ) was completed at baseline, after 3 weeks of CT, and 3 months later. Change was assessed using paired sample t-tests mean (95% confidence interval) change scores (range 1-4). All heiQ scales showed statistically significant improvement after 3 weeks of CT. The greatest improvement was in Health-directed activity, followed by Emotional distress, and Skill and technique acquisition. At the 3-month follow-up, only the Emotional distress scale remained improved. In addition, disease severity (self-administered PASI; SAPASI) improved significantly from before CT to 3 weeks and 3 months after CT. This study suggests that CT provides a range of benefits that are important to people with psoriasis, particularly in the short term. A challenge is how to achieve long-term benefits.

Health-related quality of life in people with Parkinson’s disease receiving comprehensive care

Objectives: The aim of the present study was to quantify the baseline variation in health-related quality of life (HRQOL) between individuals with Parkinson’s disease (PD) referred to a comprehensive care program and those attending standard neurological services.

Methods: Participants included individuals with PD receiving conventional care from neurologists in private practice and individuals referred to a comprehensive inter-professional team hospital out-patient service. The Parkinson’s Disease Questionnaire-39 (PDQ-39) and the EuroQoL (EQ-5D-3L) were used to quantify HRQOL.

Results: Participants referred to an inter-professional service were more likely to have poorer indices on PD-specific measures but not for generic HRQOL compared with individuals receiving standard neurological services. After adjusting for age, gender, disease severity and duration, people referred to a comprehensive care program were more likely to have a higher score for the PDQ-39 summary index (PDQ-39 SI; mean ± s.d. 27.2 ± 11.0; 95% confidence interval (CI) 25.5, 28.9) compared with individuals receiving standard neurological services (PDQ-39 SI mean 0.2 ± 12.8; 95% CI 18.0, 22.4).

Conclusions: Compared with those attending standard neurological out-patient clinics, individuals referred to an inter-professional PD program are more likely to have advanced disease and poorer HRQOL. This observation has implications for the way in which people with PD are recruited for future clinical trials, because uneven recruitment from different sources may be a potential source of bias.
What is known about the topic? Given that PD is associated with a complex array of motor and non-motor symptoms, an inter-professional team approach to service provision is argued to be optimal for individuals living with this debilitating condition.
What does this paper add? This paper has shown that individuals referred to an inter-professional service are more likely to have advanced disease and complex care needs. Compared with those referred to neurologist private clinics, those referred to an inter-professional clinic had less functional independence and lower PD-specific HRQOL when first assessed, even after controlling for disease severity.
What are the implications for practitioners? When recruiting for future trials to examine the efficacy of multidisciplinary care programs in people with PD, it is important to take into account whether these individuals have been referred to an inter-professional service. There may be a potential source of bias if participants were recruited predominantly from such services.

Associação entre manometria ano-retal e neuropatia pudenda em pacientes com incontinência fecal

A incontinência fecal é a incapacidade de manter o controle da eliminação do conteúdo intestinal em local e tempo socialmente adequados, resultando em escape de gases e fezes. Esta condição acarreta grande prejuízo na vida social dos acometidos. A causa conhecida mais comum é o trauma perineal, porém em uma grande proporcão a incontinência é idiopática. A avaliação da função esfincteriana anal é fundamental para o diagnóstico e para a conduta terapêutica na incontinência fecal. Para o entendimento da fisiopatologia desta condição desenvolveram-se vários exames de investigação. A manometria ano-retal é considerado imprescindível na avaliação. A correlação dos dados da manometria com a gravidade da doença e com estudos eletrofisiológicos ainda não estão bem estabelecidos. O objetivo deste estudo é correlacionar os dados da manometria ano-retal e o estudo do tempo de latência motora terminal do nervo pudendo com a incontinência fecal e comorbidades. Foram estudados prospectivamente todos os pacientes com queixa clínica de incontinência fecal atendidos no ambulatório de Serviço de Coloproctologia do Hospital Nossa Senhora da Conceição, de Porto Alegre (RS), entre março de 1997 e junho de 2000. De todos os pacientes foram coletados dados da anamnese que os classificaram segundo escore de incontinência proposto por JORGE & WEXNER (1993). Todos foram submetidos a manometria ano-retal, estudo do tempo de latência motora terminal do nervo pudendo bilateralmente e exame proctológico. Foram excluídos os pacientes que não concluíram toda a investigação, com cirurgias colo-retais baixas prévias ou neoplasia de reto e canal anal. Para análise estatística, os pacientes foram separados em grupos segundo a manometria normal ou alterada (hipotonia), presença ou não de neuropatia de nervo pudendo, por idade e por sexo. Foram estudados 39 pacientes, 85,6% do sexo feminino com idade média de 60,1 anos (±12,89). A média do escore de incontinência fecal foi de 9,30±4,93. À manometria ano-retal, vinte e três pacientes (59%) apresentaram pressões reduzidas. As pressões foram significativamente mais elevadas nos pacientes do sexo masculino. O tempo de latência motora terminal do nervo pudendo (neuropatia) foi prolongado em 14 doentes (35,9%). A idade e o tempo de latência motora terminal do nervo pudendo correlacionaram-se significativamente, r=0,422, (P=0,007). A demais correlações entre idade, pressões da manometria, tempo de latência motora terminal do nervo pudendo e escore de incontinência não foram estatisticamente significativas.

Test score disclosure and school performance

In this paper we test whether the disclosure of test scores has direct impacts on student performance, school composition and school inputs. We take advantage of the discontinuity on the disclosure rules of The National Secondary Education Examination (ENEM) run in Brazil by the Ministry of Education: In 2006 it was established that the 2005 mean score results would be disclosed for schools with ten or more students who took the exam in the previous year. We use a regression discontinuity design to estimate the e ects of test disclosure. Our results indicate that private schools that had their average scores released in 2005 outperformed those that did not by 0.2-0.6 in 2007. We did not nd same results for public schools. Moreover, we did not nd evidence that treated schools adjusted their inputs or that there was major changes in the students composition of treated schools. These ndings allow us to interpret that the main mechanism driving the di erences in performance was the increased levels of students', teachers' and principals' e ort exerted by those in schools that had scores publicized.

Valor prognóstico das cinéticas da procalcitonina e da proteína C reativa na pneumonia associada à ventilação mecânica

Introdução A pneumonia hospitalar é a principal causa de morte dentre as infecções hospitalares. A prevalência de pneumonia hospitalar em Unidades de Tratamento Intensivo (UTI) varia de 10 a 65%, com taxas de mortalidade que podem variar de 24 a 76%. A pneumonia associada à ventilação mecânica (PAV) é um determinante de mortalidade independente em pacientes submetidos à ventilação mecânica. A adequação do tratamento empírico precoce parece ser fundamental no prognóstico. Os critérios atualmente estabelecidos para avaliar adequação do tratamento empírico utilizam parâmetros clínicos, escores de gravidade e, principalmente, a sensibilidade do germe causador da infecção aos antibióticos administrados. Estes resultados balizam a necessidade de possíveis modificações no esquema antimicrobiano. A possibilidade de utilizar a Procalcitonina (PCT), a Proteína-C Reativa (CRP) e o escore SOFA (Avaliação de Falência de Órgãos Relacionada a Sepse), como indicadores de resposta do paciente, comparando seu status no dia do início do tratamento antimicrobiano (D0) com a evolução destes indicadores no quarto dia de tratamento (D4) abre a possibilidade de comparar o paciente com ele próprio, independente da exuberância da expressão da resposta inflamatória que ele possa desenvolver. Os resultados desta cinética entre D0 e D4 podem ser preditivos de gravidade de infecção, de eficiência antimicrobiana, e possivelmente de sobrevivência ou mortalidade hospitalar nos pacientes com suspeita de PAV. Objetivos Determinar e comparar o valor prognóstico de sobrevivência da cinética da PCT, da CRP, dos escores clínicos CPIS (Escore Clínico de Infecção Pulmonar) e SOFA, e do APACHE II (Avaliação da Fisiologia Aguda e da Saúde Crônica) na PAV entre o diagnóstico e o quarto dia de tratamento, quando a adequação do tratamento é avaliada. Pacientes e Métodos Realizamos um estudo de coorte prospectivo observacional que avaliou 75 pacientes internados no Centro de Tratamento Intensivo clínico-cirúrgico de adultos do Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre que desenvolveram PAV no período de outubro de 2003 a agosto de 2005. Os pacientes com suspeita clínica de PAV que se adequaram aos critérios de inclusão e exclusão do estudo foram os candidatos a participar. Os familiares ou representantes dos pacientes receberam esclarecimentos por escrito acerca dos exames a serem realizados, bem como dos objetivos gerais da pesquisa. Os que aceitaram participar do estudo assinaram o termo de Consentimento Informado. O projeto foi aprovado pelo Comitê de Ética em Pesquisa do Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre. No dia do diagnóstico de PAV foram coletados aspirado traqueal quantitativo, hemoculturas e sangue para a realização de dosagens de PCT, CRP, hemograma, plaquetas, creatinina, bilirrubinas, gasometria arterial e radiografia de tórax, com o objetivo de calcular o CPIS e o escore SOFA. No terceiro dia de tratamento foram novamente coletados aspirados traqueais quantitativos e os demais exames para o cálculo do CPIS. No quarto dia foi coletado sangue para dosagens de PCT, CRP e para os demais exames necessários para o cálculo do SOFA. Os pacientes foram acompanhados por 28 dias após o diagnóstico de PAV, quando foram considerados sobreviventes. Todos os pacientes que morreram antes do vigésimo oitavo dia foram considerados não-sobreviventes. Resultados Os níveis de PCT foram mais baixos nos sobreviventes em D0 (p=0.003) e em D4 (p=0.001). Os níveis de CRP não foram diferentes em sobreviventes e nãosobreviventes em D0 (p=0.77) e em D4 (p=0.14). O CPIS não pode diferenciar sobreviventes de não-sobrevientes em D0 (p=0.32) e em D3 (p=0.45). ΔCPIS decrescente não foi correlacionado a sobrevivência (p=0.59), o mesmo ocorrendo com CPIS <6 em D3 (p=0.79). Pacientes que morreram antes de D4 não puderam ter sua cinética calculada e foram considerados casos perdidos. Variáveis incluídas no modelo de regressão logística univariável para sobrevivência foram idade, APACHE II, ΔSOFA decrescente, ΔPCT decrescente e ΔCRP decrescente. Sobrevivência foi diretamente correlacionada a ΔPCT decrescente com RC = 5.67 (1.78;18.03) p = 0.003, ΔCRP com RC = 3.78 (1.24;11.50) p = 0.02, ΔSOFA decrescente com RC = 3.08 (1.02;9.26) p = 0.05 e escore APACHE II com RC = 0.92 (0.86;0.99) p = 0.02. O modelo de regressão logística multivariável para sobrevivência incluiu todas as variáveis participantes da análise univariável. Somente ΔPCT decrescente com RC = 4.43 (1.08;18.18) p = 0.04 e ΔCRP com RC = 7.40 (1.58;34.73) p = 0.01 permaneceram significativos. A avaliação da cinética dos marcadores inflamatórios e a associação com sobrevida no estudo mostraram que: - Em 95,1% dos sobreviventes houve queda dos níveis de PCT ou de CRP. - Em 61% dos sobreviventes ambos os níveis de PCT e de CRP caíram. Apenas 4,9% dos sobreviventes tiveram níveis de PCT e CRP crescentes. Com relação aos não-sobreviventes, 78.9% tiveram pelo menos um dos dois marcadores ou ambos com níveis crescentes. Conclusão As cinéticas da PCT e da CRP, obtidas pelas dosagens de seus níveis no dia do diagnóstico e no 4º dia de tratamento, podem predizer sobrevivência em pacientes com PAV. A queda dos níveis de pelo menos um destes marcadores ou de ambos indica maior chance de sobrevivência.